Free Will in Political Science:
Structure and Agency
Structure: the context and material conditions that either
(a) restrict the range of political options available to
individuals and groups (weak version)
A political world dominated by structure is patterned and
explainable.
Free will in political science: Why do
political events happen? Structure
and agency as alternative views.
Or:
(b) fully determine political events (strong version)
Agency: the ability of individuals and groups
to think and act consciously and, in so doing,
to formulate and realize their intentions.
A political world dominated by agency is without patterns and
difficult to explain.
Agency is roughly analogous to
libertarian free will. People decide to act
a certain way, and those decisions then
shape political events.
The strong version of a structural account is deterministic,
which means that it still allows for compatibilist free will.
An application. Suppose we want to
predict whether someone in the U.S. voted
for the Democratic or the Republican
presidential candidate (excluding third
parties).
If you know nothing about a person, and the parties
are competitive, you might as well flip a coin. Your error
rate is 50%.
Now suppose you know 10 demographic
characteristics of each person.
income
education
social class
age
gender
race/ethnicity
religion
frequency of attendance at worship services
region
union household
One can use a simple statistical model to
estimate the effect of each characteristic on
a person’s vote choice.
Once you know these demographic
characteristics for each person, your error
rate over the 2008, 2012, and 2016
elections is 27%-29%.
What do these results imply for compatibilist free will?
Absolutely nothing. Even if people’s votes were fully
predictable (i.e., if voting were a deterministic process),
people would still have compatibilist free will so long
as there was no coercion.
What do these results imply for libertarian free will?
On the one hand, you could find libertarian free will in the
fact that the error rate is not zero, meaning that voting
does not seem to be a deterministic process.
On the other hand, with better data and a more sophisticated
statistical model, we could shrink the error rate.
The more predictable voting becomes, the closer we move
to a purely structural explanation, and the less room for
agency and libertarian free will.
Picking up now from our last class.
Philosopher Stephen Cave: use free will for
your own life, but we’ll have more
compassion—and better public policies—if we
understand other people through determinism.
An application. Addiction was historically
understood as a moral failing, a type of free
will. Those views were replaced (among
experts) by a disease model where addiction
stems from nature and nurture.
Two relevant questions: first, why does a person develop
an addiction? Second, what is most likely to spur
recovery: calling addiction a moral failing, a disease, or
something else?
Experts now see depression, like addiction, through nature
and nurture. One popular treatment is cognitive behavioral
therapy, which uses practical and goal-oriented strategies
to try to change a person’s patterns of thinking and
behaving.
Many of the same principles apply to depression.
Some people, trying to help, will tell a depressed
person, “You have so much to live for. Just snap
out of it.”
• Strong version: You can achieve whatever you want in
America, regardless of your background, if you’re willing to
work hard.
The American dream presumes at least
some form of free will.
Lady Gaga on Jimmy Kimmel Live!, starting at 2:20:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MagImMpI7M&
• Weak version: You can better yourself in America,
regardless of your background, if you’re willing to work
hard.
In Poor Richard’s Almanack, Benjamin
Franklin offered aphorisms that later
came to be associated with the American
dream.
The American dream has undergone many different
expressions and iterations since early in American history.
There are no gains, without pains
Early to bed, early to rise,
Makes a man healthy, wealthy, and wise
Diligence is the mother of good luck
Beware of little expenses; a small leak will sink a great ship
‘Tis easier to suppress the first desire than to satisfy all that
follow it
For age and want, save while you may
No morning sun lasts a whole day
Consistent with Stephen Cave’s article: Regardless of how
you answer that question, individuals might be better off
believing in the American dream, if it inspires them to take
actions that make it a self-fulfilling prophesy (and the
converse might apply as well).
Is the American dream an achievable reality (in either
version)? A mirage? Or a reality for some and a mirage for
others?
A modern reboot of the American dream: Rhonda Byrne,
The Secret (film in 2006, book in 2007)
“The Secret” is the (bogus) “law of attraction”: by
focusing on positive or negative thoughts, people can
bring positive or negative experiences into their
lives. People and their thoughts are both made from "pure
energy," and like attracts like.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77dfwznOjvw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQ3HSQcmjNM
The film and book of The Secret initially languished in
Byrne’s home country of Australia but became a
phenomenon in America.
Another reboot of the American dream: prosperity
theology. God wants you to achieve wealth, health,
happiness, and a full life. Requires faith, prayer, and
giving money to God through a ministry.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCQsdHqx3ao&, beginning
at 4:03