U3O8 Corp. Investee – TSX: UWE OTCQX: UWEFF SSE: UWE | www.u3o8corp.com | www.samsilica.com
March 31, 2015
Frac sand developments for the
Argentinean shale oil/gas market
Richard Spencer, CEO, South American Silica Corp.
Forward-Looking Statements
& Disclaimer
2
Certain statements and concepts contained herein constitute forward-looking statements that involve substantial known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, certain of which are beyond the control of South American Silica Corp. (“SAS”), including, but not limited to, the impact of general economic conditions, industry conditions, geopolitical risks, volatility of commodity prices, risks associated with the uncertainty of exploration results and estimates and that a resource will be achieved on exploration projects, that the Carina property will be developed as anticipated and frac sand potential is realized, that resource size estimates, production and timing of development will be achieved on any target area, currency fluctuations, the uncertainty of obtaining additional financing and exploration risk, and dependence upon regulatory approvals. Readers are cautioned that the assumptions used in the preparation of such information, although considered reasonable at the time of preparation, may prove to be imprecise and, as such, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements. Potential size estimates are conceptual in nature. There has been insufficient exploration to define a resource on the specified targets. It is uncertain if further exploration will result in resources being delineated on those targets. These forward-looking statements are made as of the date hereof and SAS. assumes no obligation to update or revise them to reflect new events or circumstances.
Comparisons of SAS’ properties and exploration targets with other frac sand projects are conceptual in nature, and have not been independently verified by SAS and information regarding these peer deposits are drawn from publicly available information. Information on SAS and its projects are available on the company’s web site at www.samsilicacorp.com.
Industry and peer information has been drawn from publicly available sources and have not been independently verified by SAS.
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Outline
3
Strategic importance of the Vaca Muerta to Argentina
Potential for Argentina to become a regional energy powerhouse
Sustained, increasing production from the Vaca Muerta
Argentina getting it’s fiscal house in order
Subsidizing the oil production below price-specific thresholds
2015 presidential election
What is the Vaca Muerta?
Short-term market growth potential & required proppant quality
Logistics in Argentina – infrastructure developed over 100 years of
conventional oil & gas production
Conclusions & Opportunities
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4 Sources: SIPG - AIPG
Vaca Muerta:
Strategic Importance to Argentina: could replicate USA shale oil & gas boom
Vaca Muerta set to emulate USA oil & gas from shale success
Vaca Muerta
at this stage
– declining crude production
being reversed by shale oil
Weekly US Crude Oil Production Jan. 1983 to
Nov. 2014
(Ba
rre
ls p
er
da
y –
millio
ns
)
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Crude Oil
Production
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70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
1-J
ul-
10
1-N
ov
-10
1-M
ar-
11
1-J
ul-
11
1-N
ov
-11
1-M
ar-
12
1-J
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1-N
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-12
1-M
ar-
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1-N
ov
-13
1-M
ar-
14
1-J
ul-
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1-N
ov
-14
1-M
ar-
15
Oil
pro
du
cti
on
(b
oep
d)
Vaca Muerta production
5
Vaca Muerta: Fundamental Strategic Imprortance to Argentina
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*Vaca Muerta Shale in Argentina; Eagle Ford & Bakken
Shale in the USA
Sources: WSJ, IEA
OPEC Budget Breakeven Costs
compsred with Shale Production Cost Argentina’s oil imports $7B/year;
Foreign currency reserves $34B;
20% of total foreign currency
reserves spent on oil imports per
year
Vaca Muerta production cost ~$58/bbl –
drive to reduce costs
90% of Argentina’s oil, 71% of its gas,
from Patagonia - economic driver for
semi-desert region in which there are
few economic alternatives
Argentina needs the Vaca Muerta
oil production
Vaca Muerta:
Strategic Importance to Argentina: – Oil production in economically “challenged” area
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Vaca Muesrta is in an economically
stressed area
Permitting – “farm” sizes are
typically 25,000 acres
Vaca Muerta:
Strategic Importance to Argentina: – Could drive Argentine Economy for Decades
7
75
48
32
27
26
18
13
13
9
9
Russia
USA
China
Argentina
Libya
Australia
Venezuela
Mexico
Pakistan
Canada
1,161
1,115
802
707
573
545
437
390
285
245
USA
China
Argentina
Algeria
Canada
Mexico
Australia
South Africa
Russia
Brazil
Shale Oil Rankings by Country Technically Recoverable Shale Oil Resources
(billions of barrels)
Shale Gas Rankings by Country Technically Recoverable Shale Gas
(trillions of cubic feet)
Source: US DOE Source: US DOE
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Vaca Muerta:
Strategic Importance to Argentina: – The infrastructure is already in place
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Export pipelines to
Chile
Export pipelines to
Chile
Oil production started from
the Nuequen Basin in 1918;
Extensive infrastructure;
Support & service industries
based in local cities;
Export pipelines to Chile:
Imports 97% of its oil;
Imports 77% of its gas;
A consistently strong
economy;
Strong & consistent
demand for fuel
Vaca Muerta:
Strategic Importance to Argentina: It’s getting it’s house in order
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May 2012: Nationalized 51% Repsol ownership of YPF;
$200B - $300B required to develop the Vaca Muerta;
Reversal of policy:
December 2012: 1st new deal with foreign
oil company (Pan American Energy (a BP subsidiary)):
Followed by JV’s with Exxon, Chevron-Mobil, Dow, Total,
Wintershal, China National Oil, Petronas, Petrobras, BP, among others;
2014, April: Repsol accepted compensation for YPF (US$5B);
2014: $15B foreign investment in the Vaca Muerta;
2014: May: Settled with Paris Club of Lenders – opened up French capital market;
2014, July: Selective default because Argentina could not settle with bond holdouts;
2014, July: $11B currency swap with China;
2015, March: US Chamber of Commerce president says US companies will invest
$20B/y in Vaca Muerta
2015, April: Obama administration supports $2B Argentine loan from World Bank – 1st
such support since 2011.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
1-J
ul-
10
1-J
an
-11
1-J
ul-
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1-J
an
-12
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-15
Oil p
rod
ucti
on
(b
oep
d)
Argentina: A bad reputation
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Economic challenges:
High inflation rate –
expected to be 21% in
2015, currently 18%;
Foreign currency
restrictions;
Sovereign debt default;
Economic positives:
Debt-to-GDP not as bad as
it is perceived to be;
Oil producers are being
subsidized;
Vaca Muerta development seen
as economic driver;
October 2015 elections –
candidates have pro-business
platforms
Japan
Singap
ore
USA
Be
lgium
France
UK
Gre
ece
Italy
Po
rtugal
Ge
rman
y
Arge
ntin
a
2014 Debt-to-GDP Ratios
Vaca Muerta:
Strategic Importance to Argentina: Stimulus for oil producers
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Subsidy of up to $6/bl to prevent drop in output due to lower international oil prices:
$3/lb to companies that maintain or increase output relative to 2014;
$2/lb to exporters for oil sold abroad - $3/lb for exporters that maintain or
increase exports from 2014 levels;
Subsidies apply while:
34°API Medanito prices are <$84/bl (including the subsidy);
24°API Escalante prices are <$70/bl. Most of Escalante-grade is exported – local
refineries can’t handle the heavy crude.
Reduced royalties:
While Brent is <$79/bl, export duties decreased on a sliding scale to 1% from 13%
Argentina:
A bad reputation - but stocks are doing “OK”
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Up ~60% in 2014
Up 32% so far in 2015
Argentine Election:
Leading Contenders:
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Presidential election: October, 2015
The job: ..”leading a country mired in default, hemmed in by
litigating hedge funds and ravaged by economic stagnation
and double-digit inflation”. Bloomberg
Current poll
Scioli 32.2+/-2.5%
Macri 29.9%+/-2.5%
Massa 13.6%+/-2.5%
Argentine Election:
Scioli:
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58
Governor of Buenos Aires province (38% of national population), same political party
as current Pres. Kirchner
Family owned electrical appliance business
Former world speedboat champion
Vice President under Nestor Kirchner for 4 years
Political platform – gradual change:
Would not devalue the Peso
Would not settle with “holdout” bond holders related with Argentina’s selective
default in mid-2014. Indications: he would settle for 70% of the $1.6B awarded to
the “holdouts”
Track record in Buenos Aires province that accounts for ~1/2 Argentina’s GDP
Changed tax code
Province went to budget surplus in 2013, 2014
Legislate to protect savings so as to attract $200B held offshore by Argentineans
Argentine Election:
Macri:
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56
Mayor of Buenos Aires city (35% of country’s population)
Civil engineer
Family construction company, credit analyst at Citibank, president of Boca
Juniors football club (12 years) – club won 16 tropies under his leadership
Entered politics in 2005, elected mayor of Buenos Aires in 2007, re-elected
in 2011
Political platform: “Agent of change”:
End currency controls
End import restrictions & export tariffs to entice foreign investment &
offest capital outflows
Would settle with “holdout” bond holders related with Argentina’s
selective default in mid-2014
Vaca Muerta Shale Gas and Shale
Oil Prospective Areas,
Neuquen Basin
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100-800m
25-450m Vaca Muerta
Los Molles
Agrio
Comparison of Vaca Muerta
with Shales in the US.
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Source YFP Presentation, 2013
Vaca Muerta Shale Oil
Vaca Muerta compared
with shale plays in the US
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Source: Credit Suisse Report, 2013
Based on YPF, SPE, WoodMackenzie, UG Harts Reports
Depth Comparison
VM thickness = high proportion of
vertical wells
Small footprint = infrastructure is
concentrated, and mostly already in
place because of 100 years of
conventional production
Requires high K-value proppant
Thickness
Area Comparison
Argentina:
Other Prospective Areas,
San Jorge Basin
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Los Molles
D-129: 100-2,000m
D-129 Formation: mainly gas-prone, deep
20
Vaca Muerta: Rough estimate of Supply/Demand
for Proppant and Frac Sand
• Estimated total proppant
requirement in 2017 ~ 800kT
• ~50% (~400kT) of requirement
is for frac sand (oportunity 1)
• ~50% is for ceramic proppants,
but a 9 or 10K (good quality)
frac sand is very likely to
substitute for some of the
ceramic proppant requirement,
increasing the potential market
share for sands of exceptional
quality.
Need for very high quality frac
sand
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2015 2016 2017
De
man
d (
kT)
Vaca Muerta - proppant supply/demand
Frac sandproduction (kT)
Total proppantdemand (kT)
Total frac sanddemand (kT)
Op
ort
un
ity 2
Oportunity 1
Local Frac Sand: 560mi by road from the Vaca Muerta
Moderate quality
21
• Frac sand ~93% of bulk sand
• Mainly divided between 20/40 &
40/70 grain sizes
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Characteristic API*
Requirem’t Original Test Results
Sample 14528
Results
Conform
to API
Sample # 146 147 148 GEL 1101
Fraction 20/40 30/50 40/70 20/40 40/70
% of sand in that fraction 42% 73% 52% 45% 48% ~93%
Sphericity 0.6 0.61 0.63 0.57 0.6 0.6 Meet
Roundness 0.6 0.44 0.44 0.38 0.8 0.7 Exceed
Acid
consumption
2% 1.7% 2% 2.5% Meet /
marginal
failure 3% 2.1% 3.9%
Turbidity 250 FTU 102 78 166 193 140 Exceed
Crush test API Requirement 14% @
4K
10% @
4K
8% @
5K
14% @
4K
8% @
5K
4Kpsi 8.8% 3% 5.3% Exceed
5Kpsi 6.4% Exceed
6Kpsi 9.4% 9% Meet
8Kpsi 7.2% Meet
K Value 8K 5K 6K
Local Frac Sand
*API (American Petroleum Institute) specifications for frac sand
Vaca Muerta:
Current & proposed infrastructure
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YPF’s
Caning frac
sand plant
Vaca
Muerta
Existing road
YPF’s
planned
Anelo
frac sand
plant
Existing road
Puerto Madryn
Bahia Blanca
5-8K
sand
deposit
San Antonio
Defunct rail
Operating
rail system
• Infrastructure is
challenging
• By road from port -
300mi
• Proposed rail unlikely
to be built
• Existing narrow-
gauge rail could be
upgraded
Vaca Muerta: In-country logistics & transport cost guidance
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Palmira
Rio Grande
San Antonio
Puerto Madryn
Bahia Blanca
Vaca Muerta
San Jorge
Brazil
Uruguay
Ch
ile
Estimated Port Costs:
• Brazil - Rio Grande Port:
US$5.24/ tonne
• Uruguay – Palmira Port:
US$7/tonne
• Argentina: Bahia Blanca Port:
US$28/tonne
Sea freight (US$/tonne):
• Rio Grande port to Bahia Blanca:
US$20/t (container);
• Puerto Madryn to Bahia Blanca:
US$12/t (bulk)
Comodoro Rivadavia
Uruguay & Brazil sands:
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Good quality
Full grain-size range – tailor product to each
client’s requirements
Safety – silica dust is carcinogenic
hydromining/dredging and initial wet-screening
– no dust!
250mi from deepwater ports
Conclusion: Competitive advantages
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5-8K frac sands are available locally (20/40, 30/50, 40/70#) – moderate
quality
Opportunity:
Argentina needs (and wants) oil production – fracking accepted
Vaca Muerta & especially San Jorge basin (gas), needs higher K sands
Logistics are problematic for supply from local source:
Road transport is most viable option (900km / 560mi);
“Planned” rail unlikely to be built;
Sea freight and east-to-west transport by existing rail / road
network is attractive option. Opens the door for imported sand;
Health effects of dust – dredging is an attractive alternative that is
likely to be more socially acceptable