Forestry South Africa Forestry South Africa Roundwood Sales AnalysisRoundwood Sales Analysisfor the 2009 Financial Yearfor the 2009 Financial Year
Roger GodsmarkRoger Godsmark
Forestry South AfricaForestry South Africa
February 2010February 2010
Analysis of Roundwood Sales and Analysis of Roundwood Sales and Income GeneratedIncome Generated
20092009
Salient Points to NoteSalient Points to Note
Tonnage sales of 14.261 mt were not only 638 000t below the budget of 14.9 mt Tonnage sales of 14.261 mt were not only 638 000t below the budget of 14.9 mt but a massive 2 398 000t (14.4%) less than the corresponding figure for 2008.but a massive 2 398 000t (14.4%) less than the corresponding figure for 2008.Sales across all species were down in comparison to 2008, the biggest Sales across all species were down in comparison to 2008, the biggest decrease being attributable to eucalyptus sales which were over 1.7 mt or decrease being attributable to eucalyptus sales which were over 1.7 mt or 19.6% down on last year. 19.6% down on last year. In terms of sales per product, all products saw a decline in sales as compared In terms of sales per product, all products saw a decline in sales as compared to 2008, the biggest decrease being attributable to pulpwood with a drop in to 2008, the biggest decrease being attributable to pulpwood with a drop in sales of over 1.9 mt (15.5%). Year on year, the biggest decline was that of Euc sales of over 1.9 mt (15.5%). Year on year, the biggest decline was that of Euc Pulpwood which dropped 1.4 mt or 17.7%. Pulpwood which dropped 1.4 mt or 17.7%. Despite the levy having increased by 16.4% between 2008 & 2009 (110 cents to Despite the levy having increased by 16.4% between 2008 & 2009 (110 cents to 128 cents per ton), total income generated of R17.85 million was actually R55 128 cents per ton), total income generated of R17.85 million was actually R55 000 less than that generated the previous year. It was also over R1.2 milion 000 less than that generated the previous year. It was also over R1.2 milion (6.4%) less than that budgeted for in 2009.(6.4%) less than that budgeted for in 2009.Overall levy coverage, as one would have expected given the depressed market Overall levy coverage, as one would have expected given the depressed market conditions, decreased from 94% in 2008 to 82% in 2009 *.conditions, decreased from 94% in 2008 to 82% in 2009 *.** Note: Caution should, however, be exercised with this comparison as it Note: Caution should, however, be exercised with this comparison as it compares DWAF figures for 2007/8 with FSA’s 2009 figures.compares DWAF figures for 2007/8 with FSA’s 2009 figures.
The SA Forestry Industry did not escape the ravages of the The SA Forestry Industry did not escape the ravages of the international economic crisis that came to a head in September 2008. international economic crisis that came to a head in September 2008.
Roundwood Sales by SpeciesRoundwood Sales by Species20092009
42.4%
8.4%
49.2%
Softwood Eucalyptus Wattle
Total Sales – 14 261 000 tonsTotal Sales – 14 261 000 tons
Roundwood Sales by ProductRoundwood Sales by Product20092009
74.0%
20.4%
1.8%
3.7%
Pulpwood Sawlogs Mining Timber Other
Total Sales – 14 261 000 tonsTotal Sales – 14 261 000 tons
Pulpwood Sales by SpeciesPulpwood Sales by Species20092009
29.2%
59.7%
11.1%
Softwood Eucalyptus Wattle
Total Sales – 10 559 000 tonsTotal Sales – 10 559 000 tons
Sawlog Sales by SpeciesSawlog Sales by Species20092009
92.1%
7.9%
Softwood Eucalyptus
Total Sales – 3 220 000 tonsTotal Sales – 3 220 000 tons
Other Roundwood Sales by SpeciesOther Roundwood Sales by Species20092009
35.6%
60.2%
4.2%
Softwood Eucalyptus Wattle
Total Sales – 792 000 tonsTotal Sales – 792 000 tons
Sales Comparisons 2008 vs. 2009Sales Comparisons 2008 vs. 2009Product 2008 2009 Diff tons Diff %
Sawlogs: Soft 2 945 228 2 682 158 -263 070 -8.9%
Sawlogs: Hard 276 704 228 628 -48 075 -17.4%
Sawlogs 3 221 932 2 910 787 -311 145 -9.7%
Pulpwood: Soft 3 433 277 3 079 425 -353 853 -10.3%
Pulpwood: Hard 9 068 340 7 479 602 -1 588 738 -17.5%
Pulpwood 12 501 617 10 559 027 -1 942 591 -15.5%
Mng: Timber : 330 428 261 206 -69 222 -20.9%
Poles :Soft 147 463 116 968 -30 494 -20.7%
Poles: Hard 241 704 215 490 -26 214 -10.8%
Poles 389 167 332 458 -56 708 -14.6%
Woodchips: Soft 167 775 165 234 -2 541 -1.5%
Other: Hard 48779 32 916 -15 863 -32.5%
Grand Total 16 659 698 14 261 628 -2 398 070 -14.4%
Roundwood Sales by ContributorRoundwood Sales by Contributor20092009
82.9%
15.6%
1.6%
Corporates Co-ops Independents
Total Sales – 14 261 000 tonsTotal Sales – 14 261 000 tons
Roundwood Sales per MonthRoundwood Sales per Month2009 by Species2009 by Species
0
500
1 000
1 500
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Month
Th
ou
san
d T
on
s
Softwood Eucalyptus Wattle Total
Highest salesHighest sales -- March March 1 433 000 t 1 433 000 tLowest salesLowest sales -- JulyJuly 1 036 000 t 1 036 000 t
Roundwood Sales per MonthRoundwood Sales per Month2009 by Product2009 by Product
0
500
1 000
1 500
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Month
Th
ou
sa
nd
To
ns
Pulpwood Sawlogs Other Total
Highest salesHighest sales -- March March 1 433 000 t 1 433 000 tLowest salesLowest sales -- JulyJuly 1 036 000 t 1 036 000 t
Roundwood Sales per MonthRoundwood Sales per Month2009 Budget vs. Actual2009 Budget vs. Actual
1 000
1 100
1 200
1 300
1 400
1 500
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Month
Th
ou
sa
nd
To
ns
Budget Actual
Highest surplusHighest surplus -- March March 191 000 t191 000 tHighest deficitHighest deficit -- July July 206 000 t206 000 t
Contributions Generated by Contributor - Contributions Generated by Contributor - 20092009
82.6%
15.9%
1.5%
Corporates Co-Ops Independents
Total Income Generated – R17 850 000Total Income Generated – R17 850 000
Levy Income Generated per MonthLevy Income Generated per Month2009 Budget vs. Actual2009 Budget vs. Actual
1 200
1 300
1 400
1 500
1 600
1 700
1 800
1 900
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Month
Th
ou
sa
nd
Ra
nd
s
Budget Actual
Highest IncomeHighest Income -- March R1 798 000March R1 798 000Lowest IncomeLowest Income -- JulyJuly R1 289 000 R1 289 000
Budgeted FSA Expenditure vs. Actual Budgeted FSA Expenditure vs. Actual Levy Income - 2009Levy Income - 2009
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2 000
2 200
2 400
2 600
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Month
Th
ou
san
d R
and
s
Budgeted Exp. Actual Income
Accumulated deficit by year end - R3 907 000Accumulated deficit by year end - R3 907 000(Excludes approved but unbudgeted expenditure nor(Excludes approved but unbudgeted expenditure nor
attributable income)attributable income)
Tonnage & Levy Income ComparisonTonnage & Levy Income Comparison2009 Budget vs. Actual2009 Budget vs. Actual
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Tonnage Rands
Mill
ion
Ran
d /
To
ns
Actual Budget
638 000 Ton Deficit
R1 222 000 Deficit
Tonnage @ 128 cents per tonTonnage @ 128 cents per ton -- 13 497 000 t13 497 000 tTonnage @ 75 cents per tonTonnage @ 75 cents per ton - 764 000 t- 764 000 t
Roundwood Sales ComparisonsRoundwood Sales Comparisons2007/08 DWAF vs. 2009 FSA by Species2007/08 DWAF vs. 2009 FSA by Species
0.771
9.163
7.524
1.204
6.043
7.014
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Wattle
Softwood
Eucalyptus
Million Tons
DWAF FSA
Sales ex Plantations 2007/08 (DWAF) - 17.5 m tonsSales ex Plantations 2007/08 (DWAF) - 17.5 m tonsFSA based sales 2009FSA based sales 2009 - 14.3 m tons - 14.3 m tons
93% of DWAF
66% of DWAF
156% of DWAF
Overall coverage 82% (94% last yr)
Roundwood Sales ComparisonsRoundwood Sales Comparisons2007/08 DWAF vs. 2009 FSA by Product2007/08 DWAF vs. 2009 FSA by Product
0.387
0.352
0.427
5.427
10.881
0.330
0.332
0.261
2.911
10.559
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Other
Poles
Mining Timber
Sawlogs
Pulpwood
Million Tons
DWAF FSA
97% of DWAF
54% of DWAF
61% of DWAF
94% of DWAF
85% of DWAF
Sales ex Plantations 2007/08 (DWAF) - 17.5 m tonsSales ex Plantations 2007/08 (DWAF) - 17.5 m tonsFSA based sales 2009FSA based sales 2009 - 14.3 m tons - 14.3 m tons
Analysis of Roundwood Sales and Analysis of Roundwood Sales and Income GeneratedIncome Generated
2002 - 20092002 - 2009
Roundwood Sales per YearRoundwood Sales per Year2002 - 20092002 - 2009
14.261
16.66016.04016.60016.54116.47616.994
14.305
02468
101214161820
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mil
lio
n T
on
s
@ lower levy @ full levy
Lower levy excludes a contribution to the ICFRLower levy excludes a contribution to the ICFR
Sales Comparisons per SpeciesSales Comparisons per Species2002 - 2009 2002 - 2009
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year
Mill
ion
To
ns
Eucalytpus Softwood Wattle
Roundwood Sales 2002 - 2009Roundwood Sales 2002 - 2009EucalyptusEucalyptus
6.889
9.2379.010
8.828
8.511
8.065
8.725
7.014
6
7
8
9
10
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Years
Mil
lio
n T
on
s
Roundwood Sales 2002 - 2009Roundwood Sales 2002 - 2009SoftwoodSoftwood
5.900
6.208
5.995
6.229
6.664 6.667
6.526
6.043
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Years
Mil
lio
n T
on
s
Roundwood Sales 2002 - 2009Roundwood Sales 2002 - 2009WattleWattle
1.517
1.575
1.471 1.484
1.425
1.309
1.409
1.2041.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Years
Mil
lio
n T
on
s
Roundwood Sale Comparisons per SpeciesRoundwood Sale Comparisons per Species2008 vs. 20092008 vs. 2009
1.409
6.526
8.725
1.204
6.043
7.014
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Wattle Softwood Eucalyptus
Mill
ion
To
ns
2008 2009
Down 205 000t
- 14.6%
Down 1 711 000t
-19.6%
Down 483 000t
- 7.4%
Overall decrease of 2 398 000t or 14.4%Overall decrease of 2 398 000t or 14.4%
Sales Comparisons per ProductSales Comparisons per Product2002 - 2009 2002 - 2009
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year
Mill
ion
To
ns
Pulpwood Sawlogs MT & Other
Pulpwood growth over periodPulpwood growth over period + 238 000 tons + 2.3%+ 238 000 tons + 2.3%Sawlog decline over periodSawlog decline over period - 376 000 tons - 11.4%- 376 000 tons - 11.4%MT & Other growth over period + 95 000 tons +13.6%MT & Other growth over period + 95 000 tons +13.6%
Roundwood Sales 2002 - 2009Roundwood Sales 2002 - 2009PulpwoodPulpwood
10.321
12.667 12.67412.381
11.70711.391
12.502
10.559
9
10
11
12
13
14
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Years
Mil
lio
n T
on
s
Roundwood Sales 2002 - 2009Roundwood Sales 2002 - 2009SawlogsSawlogs
3.2873.429
3.039
3.228
3.991
3.638
3.222
2.911
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Years
Mil
lio
n T
on
s
Roundwood Sales 2002 - 2009Roundwood Sales 2002 - 2009Mining Timber & OtherMining Timber & Other
0.697
0.924
0.763
0.9310.901
1.011
0.936
0.792
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Years
Mil
lio
n T
on
s
Roundwood Sale Comparisons per ProductRoundwood Sale Comparisons per Product2008 vs. 20092008 vs. 2009
0.936
3.222
12.502
0.792
2.911
10.559
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Other Sawlogs Pulpwood
Mill
ion
To
ns
2008 2009
Down 144 000t
-15.4%
Down 1 943 000t -15.5%
Down 311 000t
- 9.7%
Overall decrease of 2 398 000t or 14.4%Overall decrease of 2 398 000t or 14.4%
Levy Income Generated per YearLevy Income Generated per Year2002 - 20092002 - 2009
9.570
11.85511.468
12.24913.002
17.905 17.850
15.607
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year
Mill
ion
Ra
nd
Levy income in 2009 actually R55 000 less than in Levy income in 2009 actually R55 000 less than in 2008 and R1 222 000 under budget2008 and R1 222 000 under budget
Sales Tonnage per ContributorSales Tonnage per Contributor2008 vs. 20092008 vs. 2009
0.220 0.222
13.581
2.859
11.822
2.218
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Corporates Co-ops Independents
Mill
ion
To
ns
2008 2009
Down 1 759 000t
-13.0%
Up 2 000t
+09%
Down 641 000t
-22.4%
Overall decrease of 2 398 000t or 14.4%Overall decrease of 2 398 000t or 14.4%
Income Generation per ContributorIncome Generation per Contributor2008 vs. 20092008 vs. 2009
14.549
3.145
0.211
14.745
2.839
0.2660
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Corporates Co-ops Independents
Mill
ion
Ra
nd
2008 2009
Up R196 000
+1.3%
Up R55 000
+26.1%
Down R306 000
-9.7%
Overall decrease of R55 000 or 0.3%Overall decrease of R55 000 or 0.3%