1FORCED DISPLACEMENT & DEVELOPMENT
Forced Displacement & DevelopmentPublic-Private Partnerships for Sustainable Solutions
EARTH SECURITY BRIEF
Developing solutions to resource pressures in host countries
Collaborating on innovative and entrepreneurial growth models
Focusing the private sector on sustainable and inclusive businesses
2FORCED DISPLACEMENT & DEVELOPMENT
1 Regional Outlook: Middle East 1.1 Theinternationalfocus
ontheSyriancrisis 1.2 EarthSecurityoutlook:
Eightconvergingpressures inhostcountries
2 Jordan: Building sustainable solutions
2.1 Water:Theexpansionof hydroponicagriculture
2.2 Energy:Financingsolar energyentrepreneurship 2.3 Housing:Anationalstrategy forgreenaffordablehousing 2.4Theneedfor entrepreneurship
3 A critical factor to achieve the 2030 Agenda
3.1 Fivereasonswhyforced displacementwilltransform the2030Agenda
4 PublicationDetails
5 Notes
Audience
The brief is a strategic input to international efforts by the United Nations and multi-stakeholder actors to define a global cooperation framework to address forced displacement in partnership with the private sector.
Itshowsthatfindingsolutionscannotbedoneinisolationbuthastoberootedintheeconomic,social,andenvironmentalrealityofeachcontext,andcontributetoacomprehensivesustainablegrowthstrategy.Thebriefappliesaninnovativemethodforidentifyingresourceprioritiesandpartnershipopportunities.ItfocusesontheregionaloutlookfortheSyriancrisis,andacasestudyofJordan,withconclusionsandkeymessagesthataregloballyapplicable.
Content
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Key Messages
1Forced displacementisreinforcingcomplexdevelopmentchallengesinhostcountries.Buildingsocialcohesionbetweenrefugeesandhostcommunitiesrequireswin-winsolutionsthataddressresourcepressures.
2Public-private partnershipsareneededinordertocreate,andmaintain,themomentumforinnovativeandentrepreneurialsolutions,whichcomplementothermeasuresneededforacomprehensiveresponse.
3The international communitymustpartnerwiththelocalandinternationalprivatesectortopromotethedevelopmentandmainstreamingofsustainableandinclusivebusinessesinindustriesthatemployrefugees.
3FORCED DISPLACEMENT & DEVELOPMENT
1.0 Regional Outlook: Middle East An integrated view of resource pressures across the countries most impacted by the Syrian conflict reveals key factors that will undermine the resilience of host countries to deal with forced displacement.
4FORCED DISPLACEMENT & DEVELOPMENT
Theplanidentifiesthreecriticalenablersneededtosucceed:16
1 Changingtheprevailingperceptionstowardsrefugees.
2 Creatinganenablingenvironmentforprivatesectorinvestment.
3 Adoptingcreativelabourpoliciesthatalsoconsiderunemploymentinhostcountries.
The role of private sector partnerships
Inlinewiththe2030AgendaforSustainableDevelopment,the3RPtakesa‘leavenoonebehind’approach,emphasisingtheneedforinnovativepartnershipsandmodelsofjobsandlivelihoodgenerationthataddresstheneedsofbothrefugeesandhostcommunities.Inparticular,engagingtheprivatesectorisviewedasfundamentaltothisholisticapproach.Privateinvestmentandtheprivatesectorareneededtosustainthegrowthofopportunitiesovertime.Public-privatepartnershipsarebecomingacriticalpartofthelandscapegoingforward.
Inthefinancesector,innovative‘blendedfinance’approachescreatewaysforpublicfinancingtocatalyseprivatelending.Forexample,theWorldBank’sConcessionalFinancingFacility,inpartnershipwiththeUNandtheIslamicDevelopmentBank,aimstomobilisefinancingtostrengthenthecapacityofcountriesandcommunitieshostingrefugeesandIDPs.17Public-privatepartnershipsfocusedontechnology,logisticsandtelecommunications,arealsoplayingarole.Forexample,CairoAmmanBankispioneeringtheuseofbiometricsinitsbankingsystemtosupportUNHCR’scashassistanceprogramme.Theseandotherexamplesdiscussedinthisbriefillustratetheprivatesector’sabilitytoworkcreativelyandefficientlytocreatelong-termmarketsolutionstothischallenge.18
The Syrian conflict is the largest, most protracted and complex humanitarian emergency of our time, and the world’s single largest driver of displacement. Syria has become the world’s top source country for refugees, overtaking Afghanistan, which had held the position for more than three decades.1 Every year of the conflict has seen an exponential growth in refugees. In 2012, there were 100,000 refugees; by April 2013 there were 800,000; four months later in August 2013 that doubled to 1.6 million.2 A staggering 6.6 million people have been displaced within Syria. Syria accounted for more than half of new refugees in 2015, registering an additional one million in the last year.3
Syria’simmediateneighbours—Turkey,Lebanon,Egypt,JordanandIraq—havetogetheracceptedover4.7millionSyrianrefugeessincetheconflictbegan.4LebanonandJordannowhavethehighestpercapitaratiosofrefugeesworldwide,and,alongwithfellowneighbours,Turkey,EgyptandIraq,haveprovidedthemostsignificanthumanandfinancialresourcesfortheresponse.5Forthesecountries,theeffectsoftheSyrianrefugeecrisisareincreasinglyspillingoverintotheeconomicandsocialspheres.6ThecombinationofrefugeeflowsanddecreasedeconomicactivitywithSyriahaveaffectedgrowth,economicperformance,fiscalhealthandtheprovisionofbasicservices,stressingthealreadystrainedeconomicandresourceinfrastructureofthesehostcountries.7Todate,asaresultofthewarinSyria,thecombinedeconomiclossesofSyriaanditsdirectneighboursare$35billion.8
Therapidinfluxofrefugeesisincreasingpopulationnumbers,shiftingthedemographicsofhostcountries(age,educationlevel,familysize)andacceleratingunemploymentandurbangrowth.Forexample,inJordanandLebanon,over80%ofSyrianrefugeesareundertheageof35andliveinurbanareas.9/10
Thischallengestraditionalencampmentapproaches.Vulnerablerefugeesendupcompetingwithequallyvulnerablelocalpopulationsforalreadystrainedresources,infrastructure,services,andlivelihoodopportunities,underminingsocialcohesioninhostcountries.11
The move towards a ‘resilience approach’
Thereisgrowingconsensusintheinternationalcommunityontheneedtomovefromshort-termhumanitarianapproachestowardslong-termsolutions.A‘resilienceapproach’isemerging,whichseekstoensurethatbasicresourcesandinfrastructure,andultimatelysocialcohesion,canberesilientinthefaceofgrowingpressuresfromforceddisplacement.12Thegreateralignmentofhumanitariananddevelopmentspheresisvitaltoconfrontingtheincreasinglyprotractednatureofforceddisplacement.
AnexampleofthisparadigmshiftistheRegionalRefugeeandResiliencePlan(3RP)inresponsetotheSyriacrisis.LaunchedbytheUnitedNationsinDecember2014,the3RPseekstostrengthenthecapacityofnationaldeliverysystemsinthefivemostaffectedcountriesbytheSyrianconflict.Itisacoordinatedresponsetodelivera$5.78billionappeal,builtonnationalresponseplansineachofthecountries,andbringingtogethermorethan200humanitariananddevelopmentpartners,includinggovernments,UNagencies,andNGOs.13
ThehumansecurityofdisplacedpeoplefromSyriaisworseningastheirsavingsaredepletedandtheyfacelimitedemploymentopportunities.14Thegrowingperceptioninhostcommunitiesisthatrefugeesareathreat;competingforjobsincountriesthatalreadyhavehighunemployment.15TheincreasingdistressandvulnerabilityofSyrianrefugeesandthenegativeperceptioninhostcommunitiesisariskthatunderminessocialcohesionintheregion.The3RP2016-2017,hasatargettohelp282,000peopleaccessemploymentopportunities.
1.1 The international focus on the Syrian crisis
5FORCED DISPLACEMENT & DEVELOPMENT
The sustainable development challenges in host countries of the Middle East – from youth unemployment to water scarcity – were already significant before the Syrian conflict began. Forced displacement is now increasing the pressure on these challenges, which threaten social, economic and political stability.
Themaponthenextpagesummarisestheconvergenceofeightsocialandresourcetrendsthatmayunderminetheresilienceofhostcountries.Theseare:youthunemployment;urbanpopulationpressure;ashortageofskillsinthepopulation;waterscarcityandpollution;fiscalinstability;andadependenceonimportedenergyandfood.Thesearecriticallyinter-relatedandwillseverelyconstrainthelong-termdevelopmentprospectsandstabilityofthesecountriesunlesslong-termactionsaretakentoaddressthem.
AreviewoftheRegionalRefugeeResponseandResiliencePlan(3RP)showsthatsomeofthesepressuresarebeingincorporatedintolonger-termobjectives.Infact,35%of3RPprogrammingisdirectedatresilience,focusingonchallengessuchaswaterandsanitation,andfoodsecurity.Thetotalappealremainsunderfundedby70%onaverage.The3RP’slivelihoodcomponentisacornerstoneoftheagenda.Itseekstoassistwageemploymentandpromotesocialcohesionthroughcommunityprojectsandaccountsfor25%ofthebudget.However,withafundinggapof93%,itremainsthemostunderfunded.
Theshortfallinfundinghasseverelyconstrainedprogressontargets.Only1%ofthetargetforindividualsassistedtoaccesswageemploymentopportunitieshasbeenachieved,reaching3,149peoplebymid-2016.19
Promotingtheresilienceofhostcountriesrequiresthattheireconomicgrowthissustainable,inparticularinindustrysectorssuchasenergy,agricultureandinfrastructure.Donorsmustconsiderhowtheirengagementwithprivatesectorpartnershipscanbedirectedtowardsinclusiveandenvironmentally-responsiblegrowth,promotinggreenjobsforhostcommunitiesandrefugeesinwin-winmodels,andenablingentrepreneurshipasameanstoaddresslong-termsustainabilitychallenges.
1.2 Earth Security outlook: Eight converging pressures in host countries
“We are witnessing a paradigm change, an unchecked slide into an era in which the scale of global forced displacement as well as the response required is now clearly dwarfing anything seen before.” António Guterres Former UN High Commissioner for Refugees 20
6FORCED DISPLACEMENT & DEVELOPMENT
Environ-mental
Social
Governance
Energy
ThecountriesimpactedbytheSyrianconflictrevealcommontrendsinthesocialandresourcepressuresbeingexperienced.Eightpressuresarehighlightedacrosstheregion.FormoreinformationontheEarthSecurityIndextool,pleasevisit:http://earthsecuritygroup.com
Thecountrydiagramusesofficialcountrydatatovisualisetheperformanceofcountriesacrossthe24issueareas.Higherscoresrepresenthigherlevelsofpressure.Avisualbenchmarkhighlightsthosedimensionswhosescoresexceedvaluesof50%.
Figure1Earth Security outlook: Eight converging resource pressures in host countries
ThemapoppositedisplayscountryprofilesusingtheEarthSecurityIndex2016.Thetoolidentifiescriticalresourcepressuresacrosssocial,environmental,energyandgovernancedomains.
Syrian Refugees Numberofpeople3RPMid-YearReport2016,UNHCR&UNDP
Syrian Refugees %oftotalpopulationOnthebasisoftotalpopulationdatafromWorldBank,2015
Funding Gap of 3RP %oftotalappealby31May20163RPMid-YearReport2016,UNHCR&UNDP
Water Scarcity Basedonthresholdof1000m³totalrenewablewaterresourcespercapitaAQUASTATDatabase,FAO,2014
Water Pollution %ofuntreatedwastewaterEnvironmentalPerformanceIndex2016,YaleUniversity
Cereal Import Dependence %ofcerealdemandimportedFoodSecurityIndicators,FAOSTATDatabase,2009–2011
Skills Gap Rankingoutof109inGlobalTalentCompetitiveIndexSource:GlobalTalentCompetitivenessIndex2016,INSEAD
Youth Unemployment %ofyouthunemployedKeyIndicatorsoftheLabourMarketDatabase,2014
Urban Population Growth AveragerategrowthperyearWorldUrbanizationProspects,TheWorldBank,2013–2015
Government Debt %ofGDPWorldEconomicOutlookDatabase2015,IMF,2014
Energy Import Dependence BasedonenergybalanceInternationalEnergyAgencyStatistics,OECD/IEA,2013
Lebanon
Scarce
45%
88%
77
21%
6%
133%
Veryhigh
Lebanon
1,048,275
17.9%
62%
Syria
Scarce
52%
43%
N/A
30%
–2%
N/A
Medium
Syria
N/A
N/A
N/A
Iraq
Vulner-able
90%
57%
N/A
35%
3%
39%
Low
Iraq
247,339
0.7%
56%
Egypt
Scarce
72%
44%
88
42%
2%
90%
Low
Egypt
117,702
0.1%
80%
Key Issues VisualisedindiagramoppositeSources
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Refugees
Jordan
Extremely scarce
81%
96%
70
29%
3%
89%
Veryhigh
Jordan
655,217
8.6%
77%
Turkey
Nearing vulner-ability
68%
1%
63
18%
2%
34%
High
Turkey
2,743,497
3.5%
74%
7FORCED DISPLACEMENT & DEVELOPMENT
Water Virtual Imports
Water Pollution Water In
security
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egradat
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ependence
Electricity Blackouts
Electricity Access
Carbon Intensity Rule of Law
Political Accountability
Inflation
Government Effectiveness
Fiscal Sustainabilit
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Weather Extremes
Skil
ls G
ap
Poverty
Land Tenure Insecurity Gender Inequality
Food Insecurity
Food Import Dependence
Urban
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Water Virtual Imports
Water Pollution Water In
security
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ependence
Electricity Blackouts
Electricity Access
Carbon Intensity Rule of Law
Political Accountability
Inflation
Government Effectiveness
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Land Tenure Insecurity Gender Inequality
Food Insecurity
Food Import Dependence
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Water Virtual Imports
Water Pollution Water In
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Electricity Blackouts
Electricity Access
Carbon Intensity Rule of Law
Political Accountability
Inflation
Government Effectiveness
Fiscal Sustainabilit
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ap
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Land Tenure Insecurity Gender Inequality
Food Insecurity
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Water Pollution Water In
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Carbon Intensity Rule of Law
Political Accountability
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Government Effectiveness
Fiscal Sustainabilit
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Weather Extremes
Skil
ls G
ap
Poverty
Land Tenure Insecurity Gender Inequality
Food Insecurity
Food Import Dependence
Urban
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Unem
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Water Virtual Imports
Water Pollution Water In
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egradat
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Electricity Blackouts
Electricity Access
Carbon Intensity Rule of Law
Political Accountability
Inflation
Government Effectiveness
Fiscal Sustainabilit
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ap
Poverty
Land Tenure Insecurity Gender Inequality
Food Insecurity
Food Import Dependence
Urban
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Water Pollution Water In
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Electricity Access
Carbon Intensity Rule of Law
Political Accountability
Inflation
Government Effectiveness
Fiscal Sustainabilit
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Land Tenure Insecurity Gender Inequality
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Turkey SyriaLebanon
Iraq Jordan Egypt
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8FORCED DISPLACEMENT & DEVELOPMENT
2.0 Jordan: Building sustainable solutionsGiven Jordan’s social and resource priorities, enabling entrepreneurship in sustainable business sectors is key to long-term stability and growth.
9FORCED DISPLACEMENT & DEVELOPMENT
Governance Social
Environmental
Energy
Water Virtual Imports
Water Pollution Water In
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egradat
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Carbon Intensity Rule of Law
Political Accountability
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Government Effectiveness
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apP
overty
Land Tenure Insecurity Gender Inequality
Food Insecurity
Food Import Dependence
Urban
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Figure2Earth Security Index 2016: Jordan country profile
TheEarthSecurityIndex2016forJordanidentifiescriticalresourcechallengesandconvergingpressuresacrosssocial,environmental,energyandgovernancedomains.
FormoreinformationontheEarthSecurityIndextool,pleasevisithttp://earthsecuritygroup.com
ThediagramusesofficialcountrydatatovisualiseJordan’sperformanceacrossthe24issues.Higherscoresrepresenthigherlevelsofpressure.
Jordan’s resource pressures
Fiscal SustainabilityJordan’sdebtiscloseto89%ofGDPmainlyduetoenergycosts29
Un-employmentJordan’syouthun-employmentis29%27
Urban Population PressureJordan’surbanpopulationisgrowingover3%peryear28
Gender Inequality17%ofwomeninJordanworkformallycomparedto70%ofmen25
Energy Import DependenceJordanimports97%ofitsenergysupply,mostlyoilandgas30
Skills GapAhighemigrationofJordanians(345,760in2011)26
Climate Infrastructure Risk Jordaniandamsareoperatingathalfcapacityduetodrought21
Virtual Water Imports Jordanishighlyrelianton‘virtualwater’embeddedinimportedcereals23
Food Import DependenceJordanimports96%ofthecerealsitconsumes24
Water InsecurityBy2060,Jordan’sfreshgroundwatersuppliescouldbecompletelydepleted22
10FORCED DISPLACEMENT & DEVELOPMENT
2.1 Water: The expansion of hydroponic agriculture
Jordan is depleting its scarce water resources. The influx of refugees has triggered over a 20% average increase in water demand. In the north, the increase in demand has reached up to 40%, with instances where water is being distributed as little as once every two weeks.31 Most of Jordan’s water comes from underground aquifers and the vast majority is used for agriculture. Water is being withdrawn twice as fast as it can replenish, relying on subsidised electricity to pump groundwater, with a consequent steep growth in electricity used for water production and supply.32
Priortothecrisis,theGovernment’sstrategyfocusedonincreasingwatersupplythroughlarge-scaleinfrastructure.Desalinationinvestments,suchasRedSea-DeadSeaconveyance,areintendedtoprovidemuchneededfreshwatersupplies,butfaceconsiderableenvironmentalandfinancialchallenges.Theyarestillyearsawayfromcompletion,raisingdoubtsthatsuchinvestmentscanprovidethewaterJordanneeds,fastenough.33
Asaresult,thefocusisnowshiftingtowardsthesustainableuseofremainingwaterresources.Millionsofcubicmetersofwaterarewastedthroughinefficientagriculturaltechniques.Muchofitisusedtoirrigatewater-intensivehighlandcrops,suchasoliveplantations,whichproducelittlecropvalueforlocalfarmersortheircommunities.34Increasingresidentialwateruseisreducingtheallocationforagriculture.Consequently,cultivatedlandinJordanhasfallenfrom49,000hain2010to36,000hain2012.Thishasresultedinincomelossesforsome57,000Jordaniansmall-scalefarmers.35
ThenumberofSyrianrefugeehouseholdslivinginJordaniancommunitieswhoareeitherfoodinsecureorvulnerabletofoodinsecurityincreasedfrom48%in2014to86%in2015.36Refugeeslivinginhostcommunitiesnowspend51%oftheirhouseholdbudgetonfood,whichconstitutesa20%increasesince2014.37Withlimitedbudgets,donorswillstruggletomaintainlevelsoffoodassistance.Alreadyin2015,theWorldFoodProgramme(WFP)wasforcedtocut229,000refugeesfromfoodvouchersandreducethevalueofremainingvouchersto$14perpersonpermonth.38
Withlesswateravailableforirrigation,foodinsecuritywillriseuptheagenda,andjobsinagriculture,asectorthatemploysmigrants,willbevulnerable.Bothwillworsentheprospectsforrefugeesandhostcommunities.Efficientirrigationtechnologieshaveproventheircapacitytosubstantiallyreducethewaterneededtogrowcrops.However,despitetheirpotential,thescalingofthesetechnologiesremainsconstrained.Thebarriersincludethelackofwillingnessoflargefarmstostartthisprocessandswitchtolesswater-intensivecrops,theslowdisseminationofthebenefitsthroughlimitedawareness-raisingcampaigns,alackofsuppliersprovidingone-stopshopstothetechnologies,andthelackoffinancingavailable.
Groundwater depletion is a critical issue. 40% of Jordan’s groundwater could be depleted by 2030 and, at current rates, Jordan’s supply of fresh water would be completely depleted by 2060.39 / 40
Case StudyKhalifa Fund for Enterprise Development
IntheUnitedArabEmirates,theKhalifaFundforEnterpriseDevelopmentisfunding130farmsusinghydroponictechnologyaspartofaninitiativetoreducewaterconsumptionandenhancefoodsecurity.Thefundalsoworksoncreatinganationalstandardforhydroponicfarmingtoguaranteethatthequalityoftheproductsisalignedwithinternationalstandards.41
11FORCED DISPLACEMENT & DEVELOPMENT
The international community can create a hydroponic enterprise programme, which fosters the awareness and willingness of Jordan’s main agricultural actors to improve water use efficiency; and further develops, diversifies and streamlines the technology offerings, incentivising access to finance for farmers and customers. As part of the programme, an enterprise development fund can support local banks to finance SMEs to expand Jordan’s hydroponic industry.
Withsavingsinwateruserangingbetween50%and80%,hydroponicfarming,whichusesmineralnutrientsolutionsinsteadofgrowinginthesoil,mustbewidelyadoptedacrossJordan.InZarqa,forexample,a300m2greenhousecanproduce29,000headsoflettuce(6harvestcycles)usingonly216m3ofwaterperyearthroughhydroponics,whichwouldrequire1,160m3ofwaterusingconventionalirrigationinthesoil.43Theapplicationsofhydroponicsinnovationsapplytoawiderangeofvegetables,leafycrops,herbs,andbarleyandcattlefood.ImprovingwaterefficiencywouldreducegroundwaterabstractionsparticularlyinthehighlandsandprotectJordan’spreciousanddeclininggroundwaterresources,whicharecurrentlyover-utilisedwithsubsidisedelectricityrates.Inurbanandruralareas,hydroponicfarmingcanbealsousedtoenablefamiliestogrowfoodandincreasetheirincome.
AgricultureisasignificantemploymentsectorforrefugeesandvulnerableJordanians.Innovationinagriculturehasthepotentialtocreateupto15,000jobsinJordan,accordingtoUSAID.44Refugeecampscouldalsobenefitandaddresstheprospectofinsufficientfoodassistance.InacamplikeAzraq,whichhaslittletonoopportunitiesforsustainablelivelihoods,anagriculturalprogrammebuiltaroundhydroponicfarmingcouldcreatejobs,improvefoodsecurityandestablishmarketlinkstosurroundingcommunities,withoutfurtherpressureonlocalgroundwatersources.
Thevaluechainassociatedwithefficientirrigation,fromsupplierstofarms,meansthatthisnascentsectorcanofferjobopportunitiesinawiderangeofskilllevels,withapositiveimpactonrefugees,womenandyouth.45However,agreateraccesstofinance,developmentofinfrastructure,andtrainingisneededacrossthevaluechain,fromfarmers,equipmentsuppliers,andpackingtomarketingbusinesses.TheprevailinglackoffinanceforSMEsinJordan(SMElendingremainsasmallproportionat6-12%oftotalbanklending)constrainsthedevelopmentofthehydroponicmarket.Therisk-takingcapacityoffinancialintermediariessuchaslocalbanksremainsacriticalbarriertothisdevelopment.46
RecommendationA hydroponic agriculture enterprise fund
USAID’sHydroponicGreenFarmingInitiativeinJordanhasdemonstratedtheeconomicsandviabilityofthesenewfarmingmodelstogetherwithlocalfarmingentrepreneurs.47TohelpconsolidateJordan’snascenthydroponicindustry,anenterprisedevelopmentprogrammeshouldhelptomainstreamtheawarenessandwillingnessofmainagricultureactorsandpolicy-makerstochangefarmingpractices.Partnershipswithmunicipalities,localfarmingassociations,andagriculturevaluechainpartnerscanbeusefulchannelstodisseminateawareness.ThesecandrawontheeffectivedemonstrationworkshopsthathavebeensuccessfullyorganisedbyECOConsult,theimplementingpartneroftheHydroponicGreenFarmingInitiative.TheinvolvementofJordan’sWANAInstitute’sgreeneconomydivisioncanhelptodevelopandmainstreamawarenessonthedriversofculturalchangewithdominantagriculturalactorsonwatersecurity.48
Inadditiontotheknowledgedisseminationandbehaviouralchangecomponent,theavailabilityoffinancingisacriticalbarriertoscalingthistechnology.AfundthatfacilitatesSMEfinancetosuppliersandcustomerswouldenableserviceproviderstosupportgrowthalongthehydroponicsvaluechain–fromfarmers,tothesuppliersofgreenhousesandnutrients,topackinghousesandcoldstoragefacilities.Theprogrammeshouldcoordinatethreekeyplayerstoencouragescale:
1 EnablingtheJordanianLoanGuaranteeCorporation,whichoffersSMEguarantees,tofocusonhydroponics.
2 WorkingwiththeJordanEnterpriseDevelopmentCorporation(JEDCO)andtheAgriculturalCreditCorporation,toaddressgapsinaccesstofinanceinthegovernorateswherethebusinessenvironmentisparticularlydifficult.
3 LiaisingwithmicrofinancelenderslikeFINCAJordan,targetingentrepreneursthatarenotbankableinatraditionalenterpriselendingmodel.
“Scaling hydroponic agriculture is the best shot at containing Jordan’s water crisis, and increasing agricultural productivity to create prosperity.” Raed Daoud Chief Executive, ECO Consult 42
12FORCED DISPLACEMENT & DEVELOPMENT
Jordan is one of the world’s most energy insecure countries. It imports 97% of its energy at a cost of nearly 20% of its GDP.49 Energy demand is expected to grow at least 50% over the next 20 years.50 Residential energy consumption almost doubled between 2011 and 2012. Much of this has been attributed to the influx of displaced people from Syria even though refugees are estimated to have 25% less energy per capita consumption than the general population.51
Thehighcostsofenergyimportsareaburdenonpublicfinances.Theelectricitysubsidyjumpedfrom$226.4millionin2010to$1.5billionin2011.52By2014,over80%ofJordan’sdebtwasusedtocoverthelossesoftheNationalElectricPowerCompany(NEPCO).ThegovernmenthassetoutanambitiousNationalEnergyStrategytoharnessthepotentialofthekingdom’ssolar,shaleoil,andnuclearresources.However,thelasttwoarehighlywater-intensiveandtheirpromotioncouldfurtheraccelerateJordan’simpendingwatercrisis.53
ThestrainonenergyresourcesisreducingthefinancialabilityofJordantocopewiththeinfluxofrefugees.In2015,theelectricitybilltotheUNHCRfortheZa’ataricampinJordanwas$8.7million,whichledtheagencytocutimprovisedconnectionsforrefugeehouseholdsandbusinesses.54Renewableenergyequipmentandservicesinrefugeecamps–fromcleancookstovestosolarlanterns–arebeingdonatedbyNGOsandsocialenterprises.However,theseprojectsoftenfailduetolackofsustainedfundingorbecauseofthelackofmaintenanceforequipment.
Withover300daysofsunshineintheyear,andoneofthehighestsolarincidenceratesintheworld,Jordan’srenewableenergyindustryhasoneoftheMiddleEast’shighestpotential.55
Jordanisonitswaytoachieveatotalsolarpowergenerationcapacityof12%in2020.56Large-scalesolarprojectsarethrivinginJordan,asfinancingfromcommercialbanksisencouragedbylegalandtaxframeworks.However,small-scalesolarPVisunderdeveloped,asbanksarenotwillingtolendduetosmallprojectsizes,longpaybackperiodsforthelocalmarketcontextandthelackofguarantees.
2.2 Energy: Financing solar energy entrepreneurship
Giventheprojectedenergydemand,encouragingthegrowthofwell-functioningmarketsforrenewableenergyisvitaltoensureJordan’slong-termenergysecurity.Small-scalesolarenergyhasthecapacitytoaddressbothJordan’senergydeficitaswellascreatejobsforrefugeesandJordaniansacrossthevaluechain.
Case StudyZa’atari Refugee Camp
Qatar-basedrenewableenergydeveloper,GreenGulf,Inc.partneredwiththeNorwegianRefugeeCounciltoinstallsolarpowersystemsattheZa’atarirefugeecampinJordan.Theprojecthastrainedyoungrefugeesinsolarenergyinstallation,inordertocreateacareerpathwaytoelectricalengineeringinthesector.58
“The centrality of energy costs to the public budget threatens to derail the development trajectory of the country unless urgent actions are taken.” Jordan Response Plan 57
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The international community can help to create a solar entrepreneurship programme, which builds momentum for the development of technical skills, enterprise development and financing of small-scale, decentralised solar energy enterprises and related jobs. New credit lines and seed funding for entrepreneurs that have enrolled in technical training programmes would enable them to develop small enterprises.
Withphotovoltaic(PV)technologycostsfallingby50%inthelast3years,theresidentialandcommercialsolarmarketispoisedtogrow.Jordanalreadyleadstheregioninutility-scalesolarinstallations.Theopportunityforgrowthinsmallandmedium-sizedsolarenergydependsonapurposefulbridgingofthegapinSMEfinanceandpromotingenterprises.60
Investmentsinrenewableenergygeneratetwiceasmanyjobsperdollarinvestedthanthoseinthehydrocarbonindustry.61Some30,000directjobscouldbecreatedinthesectorby2050.62Recentprojectsdemonstratethepositiveimpactofskills-trainingprogrammes,particularlythosetargetedatwomenandrefugees[seecase],onprovisionofenergyandeconomicdevelopmentinvulnerablecommunities.63
InnovativecompanieslikeMASE,whodeliveredtheaward-winning“RooftopSolarProject”to400low-incomehouseholds,andYellowDoorEnergy,whoispioneeringaleasingmodelforrooftopinstallations,havethecapacitytorapidlyscalethemarketforsolarenergy,buttheyneedsupporttogrow,alabourforcethatmeetsthemarket’sneeds,andcustomerswhohaveaccesstofinancing.64/65
Akeyconstraint,giventheupfrontcostsofcapitalforthesecompanies,isaccesstofinance.Roughly90%ofdomesticlendinggoestothetop50firmsinJordan,despitethefactthat98.6%ofJordan’sindustrialfirmsareclassifiedasSMEs.66ThecommonbarrierstoSMEfinance–suchasshortloantenorsandcollateralrequirements–arecompoundedbybanks’insufficienttechnicalexpertiseintherenewableenergysector.
RecommendationA solar entrepreneurship fund
Atargetedprogramme,featuringasolarentrepreneurshipfund,canhelpbridgethegapinSMEfinancetosolarenergycompaniesandtocustomers,accelerateimplementationofsolarprojects,andfocusskills-buildingprogrammesforyoungentrepreneurstosetupsmallbusinesses.
AfundwouldleverageexistingeffortsbydonorstostimulatetheJordanianbankingsector,suchastheFrenchDevelopmentAgencycreditlinetoCairoAmmanBankandCapitalBankofJordan,67andgovernment-backedfinanceinitiativesliketheJordanRenewableEnergyandEnergyEfficiencyFund,tofacilitateSMEs’accesstoriskcapitalandbuildthecapacityoflocalbankstodevelopnewfinancialproducts.
NationalcreditcorporationsingovernorateshaveaprioritytofinancelocalSMEsandshouldbeinvolvedinthisfocusedeffort.AnewgovernmentprogrammeworthJD25million($35.2million)bytheDevelopmentandEmploymentFundforsoftloanstoyoungpeopletoestablishproductivebusinesses,canbenefitfromatargetedfocusedonsolarenergy.68Aninitialstudyshouldbecommissionedtoevaluatethesmallcompaniesthatareprovidingsolarpowerequipmenttohousesandbusinessinordertounderstandthespecificchallengestheyfaceinestablishingandsustainingtheirbusinesses.
Anentrepreneurshipprogrammeshouldstrivetoenableskillsbuildingprogrammesamonglocalentrepreneurs.Threeinitiativescanbebroughttogethertoaligntheirsupportforyoungentrepreneursinbusinessskills-buildingandmentoringtoset-up,manageandfacilitateseedinvestmenttosmallsolarenergybusinesses:Theseare:TheEDAMAinitiative,agovernmentpartnershipwiththeprivatesectortodevelopenergyandwatertechnologies;Jordan’sYoungEntrepreneursAssociationandtheentrepreneurshipincubatorOasis500.69
“Solar energy is capable of transforming lives and driving entrepreneurialism. From construction to maintenance, it offers a range of new opportunities to develop skills and employment.” Raed Byakrat First Solar 59
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2.3 Housing: A national strategy for green affordable housing
The arrival of more than 657,000 Syrian refugees since 201170 has placed considerable stress on Jordan, particularly its northern municipalities.71 The northern governorates of Mafraq, Irbid, and Zarqa have seen the greatest proportion of Syrian arrivals relative to their pre-crisis populations.72
Housingisthemostcommonlycitedissuelinkedtosocialtensionswithinhostcommunities.Thelocalhousingmarkethasbeenunabletocopewiththenumbersofpeople.In2015,therewasashortfallofatleast48,000housingunits.73Thishasdrivenuprentlevels.Insomeareas,rentalpricesdoubledandeventripledbetween2012and2013.74Rentisthesinglehighestexpenditureforthemajorityofrefugeeslivingoutsidecamps,representingbetween50%–90%oftheirmonthlyhouseholdincome.Oneintenfamiliesreportthattheydonotknowwherethemoneyfortheirnextrentwillcomefrom.75
AccesstoaffordablehousingisoneofthecriticalenablersoflivelihoodsforbothJordaniansandSyrians,providingnotjustshelterbutalsoanaddress,whichpeopleneedinordertoworkandaccessservices.However,whileshelterisalsoakeycomponentoftheJordanResponsePlatformandthe3RP,ithasbeenoneofthemostunder-fundeddimensionsoftheresponse.76Despitedonoractivitiestoprovideemergencyshelterandcash-for-rentassistance,thereremainsasignificantneedtoupgradesubstandardhousing,andbuildnewaffordablehousingunits.77
However,newstrategiesandpartnershipstobuildaffordablehousesmusttakeaccountofJordan’snaturalresourcepressures.TheresidentialsectoraccountsforaquarterofJordan’stotalenergyuse,equaltothatoftheindustrialsector.78Thegrowingdemandforhousingisalsoincreasingpressuresonwaterandland.Thehousingsectorrequiresanacceleratedresponse,butonethatprovidesasustainableapproachtonewbuildingstoensurethataffordablehousing,andthejobsinconstructionassociatedwiththem,canbedrivenbya‘green’buildingsector.79
Case StudyJordan Affordable Housing Programme
TheJordanAffordableHousingProgrammeisapartnershipbetweentheMinistryofPublicWorksandHousingandUN-HabitatfundedbytheSwissGovernment.Itseekstoenableaffordable,sustainablehousingunitsforlowincomeJordaniansandavailableforrenttorefugeesataffordableprices.Thedemonstrationunits,unveiledinJune2016,aretobefurnishedbyIKEA.Thedemonstrationunitsarenowopenforthepublictoprovidefeedbackandexpressinterestinfuturepilotprojects.80
Rapid population growth in Jordan’s cities has strained basic services and infrastructure. A shortage of housing supply and skyrocketing rental prices, alongside with competition for jobs, are primary drivers of tension between displaced persons and host communities.
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The international community can help Jordan to make sustainable and affordable housing the central part of a revised national housing strategy. This should provide a framework for greening the construction sector, which employs the most refugees. A priority is to build the capacity of Jordanian policy-makers to achieve a sustainable housing policy.TheacutedemographicpressuresandneedforhousinginJordan,coupledwithcriticalsustainabilitychallenges,requiredefinitionofasustainablegrowthtrajectoryforcities.Greenbuildings–whichdrawonsustainablematerialsandtechnology,useonaverageathirdlessenergy,upto20%lesswater,andcangenerateupto60%lesswaste.82
ThenewAbdaliMall,thefirstlarge-scalecommercialcomplexinJordan,hasanintricatesystemofnaturalheatingandcooling,waterrecyclingandsolarpanels,andfeatureslocalmaterials.83Jordan’sfirstlowenergyhouse,theAqabaResidence,openedin2010demonstratingthecosteffectivenessofdesignandconstruction.84UNHCRandIKEA,theglobalhomefurnishingcompany,organisedadesigncompetitionforinnovationsthatcanbenefitbothrefugeesandlocalcommunities,includingshelter.Fivefinalistsfromover630entrieswilldevelopworkingprototypes.85
Jordan’sconstructionsectorcontributed$3billiontoGDPin2014.70%ofjobsaretakenbylow-skilledforeignworkers,whichmakesthissectorparticularlyrelevanttoopportunitiesavailabletorefugees.86AccordingtoRubaAl-Zu’bi,CEOofEDAMA,Jordan’ssustainabledevelopmentpartnership,Jordanmustfocusmoreongreenbuildingsatthegrassrootslevel:“Whatwewantistochangethewholevaluechain…YouactuallywantgreenmaterialcompaniestoopenupinJordantointroduceanewsectorwhichwillcreatejobs.”87
However,thelackofknowledgeaboutsustainabledesignandconstructionandtheperceivedhighcostsareobstaclestoscale.Asurveyofengineeringfirmsrevealedthatlessthanhalfhadprofessionaltrainingingreenapplications.88Similarly,thereisashortageofcontractors,technicaltrainingcapacity,andsupplyofgreenbuildingmaterials.TheHousingandUrbanDevelopmentCorporationisresponsibleforexecutingthegovernment’spolicyandvision.Anationalstrategyongreenandaffordablebuildingswouldexpandopportunitiesacrosstheconstructionvaluechain,addingthepotentialtocreatenewjobsforJordaniansaswellasforforeignworkers.89
RecommendationA national strategy for green and affordable housing
Jordan’sNationalHousingStrategy,lastratifiedin1989,mustberevisedtofocuscentrallyongreenandaffordablebuildingsasawaytoencouragethesustainablegrowthofitstownsandcities.90TheinternationalcommunitycanpartnerwithinstitutionssuchastheJordanGreenBusinessCouncil(JGBC)toencouragethedevelopmentofpolicyproposals.In2012,JGBCconductedatrainingprogrammeonsolarwaterheatersandinsulationandtrained1,500engineers,contractorsandbuildingowners,whichreflectedtheinterestofpolicy-makersandprivatecompanies.91
AkeypriorityistobuildthecapacityoftheHousingandUrbanDevelopmentCorporationtoupgradetheNationalHousingStrategywithafocusongreenbuildings;tofacilitateprivatesectorpartnershipswithcompaniesinthegreenconstructionvaluechainaswellasotherinternationalcompanieswithexpertiseinsustainablecities,suchasArup,theglobalengineeringfirm.
Asustainablehousingpolicyshouldfocusonincentivisingawholenewgenerationofvocationalandprofessionaltrainingingreentechnology,eco-design,andeco-construction,acrossdemographicgroups,includingJordanianyouthandrefugees.TheworkofJordan’sCenterfortheStudyoftheBuiltEnvironment(CSBE)andtheinterestininnovationofglobalcompaniessuchasIKEAcanbefurtherharnessedtosupportsuchcompetitions.
Aspartofsuchanoverarchingprogramme,financingcanbeprovidedtotheJordanAffordableHousingProgrammeandarangeoflocalcommercialbankstodevelopthenecessarysustainablefinanceinnovationstoencouragegreencreditacrossthevaluechainfromdeveloperstodwellers,cateringtodifferentlevelsofcustomers.
“Investing in green buildings can deliver a win-win of affordable housing, sustainable energy and greener jobs in the informal sector. It is the way to turn the shortfall of housing into a long-term opportunity.” Mohammad Asfour, former Chairman, Jordan Green Building Council 81
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Peak demographics and social cohesion
TheSyrianrefugeepopulationinJordanisequivalenttoroughly10%ofthetotalpopulationofJordanpriortotheSyrianconflict.93Ofthemorethan657,000SyrianrefugeesregisteredinJordansince2011,only20%resideinitstwoprimaryrefugeecamps,Za’atariandAzraq.80%ofSyrianrefugeesinJordanliveintownsandcitiesinJordan’snorthernbordergovernorates,andinthelightofgreaterpressuresonbasicservices,thegoodwillofhostcommunitiesiswaning.94Almost70%ofJordaniansareundertheageof29andyouthunemploymentisacriticalchallenge:atprojectedgrowthrates,theJordanianeconomywillonlycreatehalfofthejobsthatareneeded.95/96
AstheSyrianconflictentersitssixthyear,theeffectofthecrisisontheJordanianlabourmarketisincreasinglyfeltonwagelevelsandworkingconditions.97TheimpactofrefugeesonJordan’sjobopportunitiesisoneofthemostcontroversialissuesunderminingsocialcohesionandstability.AsurveyofJordanianworkersbytheInternationalLaborOrganizationin201598foundthat:
—95%believethatSyriansweretakingjobsfromJordanians.
—93%believethatSyriansweresuppressingJordanianwages.
—85%believethatSyriansshouldnotbeallowedtoenterthecountryfreely.
—65%believethatallSyriansshouldlivewithinrefugeecamps.
TheperceptionsaredifficulttomeasuregiventhatnearlyhalfthelabourmarketinJordanisalreadyintheinformalsector.99Inthelastfewyears,thegrowingtensionandoccasionalscufflesbetweenhostcommunitiesandrefugeesinbordercitiessuchasMafraqhavebeenastarkreminderthatsocialcohesionisthegluethatsustainspoliticalstability.100
Competition for jobs
Therearesome1millionmigrantworkersinJordanbutjustover324,000haveofficialworkpermits.101MostcomefromEgypt(68%),followedbySriLanka(9%),Indonesia(8%)andotherAsiancountries(15%).102Jordan’sgarmentindustryisalmostentirelydependentonmigrantworkers.Todaythesectoraccountsfor20%ofJordan’sGDPandemploys55,000people,75%ofwhomareforeignworkersfromBangladesh,India,SriLanka,MyanmarandMadagascar.103
2.4 The need for entrepreneurship
MigrationisnotnewtotheKingdomofJordan.ItslabourmarkethasbeenshapedoverthepastdecadesbyaninfluxofrefugeesfrommajorregionalconflictssuchasPalestineandIraq.104Today,itisestimatedthat160,000SyriansworkinginJordanhavetakenjobsinsectorsthatJordanianstendtoavoid,displacingnotJordaniansbutratherotherlabourmigrantsinlow-wagejobsinagriculture,manufacturing,constructionandservicesliketourism.105OfthedisplacedSyrianslivingoutsidethecamps,90%ofthoseworkingdonothaveworkpermits.106
Thiscompetitionforinformal,low-skilledlabourbetweenrefugeesandeconomicmigrantshasblurredthedistinctionbetweenthesetwotypesofmigration.Itrequiresnewapproachesthatconsiderbothonequalfootingwhenitcomestojobs.107
DespitelabouragreementswithEgypt,SriLanka,Bangladeshandothers,since2016,JordanhasgivenSyriannationalspriorityoverothermigrantworkerstoobtainjobsinconstruction,hospitalityandagriculturesectors.108TradeincentivesfromtheinternationalcommunitysuchaswiththeEuropeanUnion,havefocusedonthejobmarket,seekingtosupportJordantoreachitstargetofbringing200,000Syrianstoformalwork.109ThiscouldimplyreplacingsomeofJordan’sforeignworkers,mostlyfromEgyptandAsia.110
Many of the 50,000 young people entering the labor market annually will not find decent work.92
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TheGovernmentofJordanisfacilitatingthetransitiontolegalemploymenttohelprefugeesbecomemoreself-reliant.Thiscouldseeupto50,000SyriansabletoworklegallyinJordanintheshortterm,withthousandsmoreinthecomingyears.111GovernmentinitiativesincludetheintroductionofagraceperiodandwaivedfeestoobtainworkpermitsforSyriansandregularisetheiremployment.SinceMarch2016,SyrianscanusetheiridentitycardsissuedbytheMinistryofInteriortoobtainworkpermits,whilethoseregisteredwithUNHCRcanusetheirservicecards.112Furthermeasuresincludedelinkingworkpermitapplicationsfromanemployerinagriculturebyleveragingaroleforcooperatives,aswellasinconstruction;increasingthenumberofpermissionstoleaverefugeecampstogotowork;andsocialsecurityreformsforrefugeeworkers.113
Leveraging the momentum for green jobs
Refugeespredominantlyliveinurbanandperi-urbanareas,manyininformalsettlements.114Thestrainonmunicipalservicesandinfrastructureisincreasinglyevident,aspeoplefindmorerecurrentwaterandelectricityshortages,over-enrolledschools,insufficientgarbagecollection,overwhelmedhealthcentres,andrisingfoodandfuelprices.Theseissueshavethepotentialtoamplifytheprospectsofsocialconflict.115Jordanisoneoftheworld’smostwater-poorcountries,withrapidlydecliningwateravailabilitypercapita.116Itcurrentlyreliesentirelyonimportedoilandgastomeetitsgrowingenergydemand.117Lessthan5%ofthetotallandareainthecountryisconsideredarable,andthislandisunderpressurefromclimatechangeandrapidurbansprawl.118
TheInternationalLabourOrganization’s(ILO)projectshaveraisedawarenessoftheneedfornewjobopportunitiestocontributetoagreenereconomy.AseriesofILOpilotprojectsseektocreatejobopportunitiesthroughskillstraininginrenewableenergyandwaterefficiency,andconnectingjobseekersdirectlywithemployers.119Theseprojectsperfectlyillustratethekindofjoined-upthinkingthatisneeded.
JordanhasmadeprogresstowardsdevelopingaGreenEconomyStrategy.120TheEDAMAInitiativeisthegovernment’spartnershipwiththeprivatesectorthatseekstopromoteinvestmentinJordan’senergy,water,andenvironmentalsectors.121Jordanisalreadydemonstratingthepotentialtobecomeahubforrenewableenergyandclean-techproduction,salesandresearchintheregion.TheMa’anDevelopmentArea(MDA),forexample,wassetupinthesouthofJordantofosterrenewableindustries.TheMDAincludesa750,000squaremeterindustrialparkandlinkswithKingHusseinBinTalalUniversitytoenhanceknowledgeandcapabilityinthefieldsofmanufacturing,science,engineeringandrenewableenergy.122
Inclusive industrial development
OneproposalforformalisingemploymentandprovidingrefugeeswithopportunitiesistheuseofSpecialEconomicZones(SEZs)–industrialparksbestowedwithlowexporttariffstoEurope.SEZshaveplayedamajorroleinthepastinattractingforeigninvestmenttoamanufacturingsector.123EmploymentforbothSyriansandJordanianswouldbeguaranteedthroughaquotasystem(yettobedetermined).InvestorswouldenjoytaxbreaksaswellasavailabilityofSyrianworkers,manyofwhomhavepreviousmanufacturingexperience.
Beforetheybecamerefugees,SyrianswholiveoutsidecampsinAmman,IrbidandMafraq,mainlyworkedinindustriesofconstruction(23%),wholesaleandretailsale(23%),manufacturing(16%),transportationandstorage(10%),andagriculture,forestryandfishing(9%).124
AUNHCR/ILOpilotprojectwaslaunchedinApril2016toprovide2,000SyrianswithemploymentinJordan’sapparelindustryandisprogressingslowly.125However,ifsuccessful,SEZswouldallowrefugeestotransitionfromdependencyonhumanitarianaidtowardsself-reliance.126
CriticsofthemodelpointoutthatexistingSEZsinJordanthathavecontributedtoitsmanufacturingboom,havethrivedonthebackofpoorworkingconditions,extremelylowwagesanddifferentformsofhumanrightsabuses.127TheselectionofindustriesandsectorstobeincentivisedaspartofnewSEZplansmustbeconsideredcarefully,bothfortheirresourceintensity(e.g.wateruse)aswellastheenforcementofprinciplesofdecentwork,toensurethechoicespromoteJordan’ssustainablegrowth.
ThisbriefisintendedtoinformthestrategicsupportforinclusiveindustrysectorsinJordan,inthefaceofpressuresfromforceddisplacement.However,itshouldalsobeseenasaguidetoinformfuturestrategicindustrychoicesthatwillbemadeaspartofSEZs’proposals.
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3.0 A critical factor to achieve the 2030 Agenda Forced displacement crises are becoming lengthier, and fewer crises are being resolved in their first few years. The prospect of more protracted displacements is challenging traditional humanitarian models and bringing the longer-term needs of affected populations, both displaced persons and host communities, into a sharper focus. This has significant implications for the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
19FORCED DISPLACEMENT & DEVELOPMENT
3.1 Five reasons why forced displacement will transform the 2030 Agenda
1Forced displacement on the rise
Bytheendof2015,over65millionpeoplewereforciblydisplacedduetoarmedconflicts,persecution,generalisedviolence,orhumanrightsviolations.Thatisoneinevery113peopleontheplanet.Thisfiguregrewbymorethan50%since2011.Throughout2015,12millionpeoplewereforciblydisplaced,anaverageof24peopleeveryminute.128
Regionbyregion,forceddisplacementisontherise.Inthepastfiveyears,15neworre-ignitedconflictshaveeruptedacrossAfrica,Asia,EuropeandtheMiddleEast.129Ofthetotaldisplacementnumberstoday,themajorityareinternallydisplacedpeoplewithinthebordersoftheircountries(40.8million),thesecondlargestgroupsarerefugees(21.3million),withasmallerproportionofasylumseekers(3.2million).130Afurther19.2millionpeople,spreadacross113countries,wereforcedtofleetheirhomesasaresultofdisastersandextremeweathereventsin2015alone–afactorthatillustratesthegrowingimportanceofclimatechangetotheforceddisplacementagenda.Overthepasteightyears,thetotalnumberofdisaster-relateddisplacementsamountedto203.4millionoranaverageof25.4millionannually.131
2The crises are becoming lengthier
Almosttwo-thirdsofallrefugeeshavebeendisplacedforatleastthreeyears,andhalfofallcurrentrefugeeshavebeendisplacedforovertenyears.132Inaddition,decades-oldinstabilityandconflictincountrieslikeAfghanistan,Iraq,Somaliaandelsewheremeansthatmillionsofpeopleremainonthemoveor–asisincreasinglycommon–strandedforyearsontheedgeofsocietyaslong-termrefugeesorinternallydisplacedpersons(IDPs).133
Morethanhalfofalldisplacedpeoplecomefromthreecountriesexperiencinglong,drawn-outconflictsandinternalviolence:Syria(4.9million),Afghanistan(2.7million)andSomalia(1.1million).
Inturn,mostinternallydisplacedpeoplewereinColombia(6.9million),Syria(6.6million)andIraq(4.4million).Colombiaisedgingtowardsaresolutionoftheconflict,butotherwiseveryfewofthesecriseshavebeenresolvedandgeneratecontinueddisplacement.In2015,onlysome200,000refugeeswereabletoreturntotheirhomecountries.134
3A small number of developing countries carry most of the responsibility and burden
Sevencountries–Syria,Iran,Pakistan,Lebanon,Turkey,PalestineandJordan–arehostingmorethan50%ofallrefugeesworldwide.135Developingcountrieshostedover86%oftheworld’srefugeesunderUNHCRmandate.Leastdevelopedcountrieshosted26%.Onthecountrylevel,Turkeyistheworld’sbiggesthostwith2.54millionrefugeesin2015.Inrelationtoitsnationalpopulation,Lebanonhoststhelargestnumberofrefugees,with183per1000inhabitants,followedbyJordanandNauru.Ethiopiapaysmostforrefugeesinrelationtothesizeofitseconomy.136
Forciblydisplacedpeoplefacedangerousconditionsandabusealongtheirjourneysanduncertaintyuponarrival.Therisingnumberofchildren,manyunaccompanied,intheselargemovementsisofparticularconcern–roughlyhalfofallregisteredrefugeesgloballyarechildrenandyouth.Thisisthehighestfigureforchildrefugeesinmorethanadecade.137
4Seeing opportunities for sustainable solutions
Citiesarethetopdestinationfortheforciblydisplaced.60%oftheworld’srefugeesand80%ofinternally-displacedpeoplesettleincitiesinsearchofgreateropportunities.138InJordan,forexample,morethan80%ofSyrianrefugeesresideoutsideofrefugeecampsinurbanareas.139Ascitiesovertakerefugeecamps,refugeesrelylessonaidagenciesandmoreonministries,municipalauthorities,theprivatesector,civilsocietyandcommunitygroups.
ThelatestguidancefromUNHCRencourageslocalcommunitiestohostrefugeesasamoredurablesolutionthancamps.140Refugeesattendlocalschools,seekmedicalcareinpublicclinicsandhospitals,renthousingfromthehousingmarket,benefitfromexistingwaterandsanitationsystems,andfindjobswithlocalbusinesses.Whererefugeenumbersarelarge,thepressureonlocalresources,basicservicesandinfrastructureisbeingacutelyfelt.141Governmentsinhostcountriesareincreasinglyfacingthetensionofattendingtothevulnerabilitiesofdisplacedpopulationswhilemaintainingsocialcohesion.142
5A critical factor to achieve the 2030 Agenda
Forceddisplacementcarrieshugeimplicationsforthe2030AgendaforSustainableDevelopment.143Achievingitsgoalswouldhelpreducetherootcausesofdisplacement,suchasconflicts,fragility,humanrightsviolations,orclimatechange.However,statesthataredisproportionallyaffectedbyforceddisplacementwillseetheircapacitytoachievethesegoalsseriouslydiminishedwithoutcomprehensivesupportbytheinternationalcommunity.Migrants,refugees,displacedpersons,orpersonsaffectedbyconflictandoccupation,mustbeconsideredcentrallyinthesustainabledevelopmentagenda.144
Migrationcanalsobeapositiveforceforsustainabledevelopment.Forexample,researchontheeconomiclifeofrefugeesinUgandabytheHumanitarianInnovationProjecthasdebunkedtheconventionalconceptionofrefugeesasbeinguniformlyaburdentohostcountries.Understandingthewaysinwhichrefugeecommunitiescontributepositivelytoanationaleconomyisnecessaryinordertoturncurrenthumanitarianchallengesintosustainableopportunities.145
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Interviews
AhmadAwad,PhenixCenter;Ala’aAbdulla,JordanGreenBusinessCouncil;AlderBartlett,USAID;AlexanderAleinikoff,ColumbiaUniversity;AnikaSandlund,UNHCR;AyaMaraqa,SwissAgencyforDevelopmentandCooperation;CarolinevandenBerg,WorldBank;CatherineOsborn,NorwegianRefugeeCouncil;EllenHamilton,WorldBank;GregoryManiatis,UNGlobalForumforMigraiton&Development;HaneenAbuZaid,PhiladelphiaSolar;ImanBkayrat,HumanitarianMonitoringGroup;ImanZaki,UN-HabitatJordan;IssamGabara,Netafim;JeremyCrane,AdeniumCapital;JoelBell;JohnBingham,InternationalCatholicMigrationUniversity;KishanKhoday,UNDP;LindaAl-Kalash,Tamkeen;MarcoStella,UNDP;MarkusvonHaniel,AlcazarEnergy;MartaVallejo,UNDP;MattHuber,InternationalOrganizationonMigration;MichaelDoyle,ColumbiaUniversity;MichaelNewson,InternationalOrganizationonMigration;MohammadAsfour,WorldGreenBuildingCouncil;MyriamAbasa,WorldBank;NasredinHagElamin,FAO;NatyBarak,Netafim;NicholasGrisewood,InternationalLabourOrganization;OwenShumba,UNDP;PatriceMoix,SwissAgencyforDevelopmentandCooperation;PascalRaess,SwissAgencyforDevelopmentandCooperation;PaulStromber,UNHCR;PhilipFishman,InternationalLabourOrganization;PietroMona,SwissAgencyforDevelopmentandCooperation;RaedBkayrat,FirstSolar;RaedDaoud,ECOConsult,SarahCliffe,NewYorkUniversity;ScottChristiansen,USAID;SusanRazzaz,WorldBank;TareqKhalifeh,MASEEnergy;VictorMints,IFC;XavierDeVictor,WorldBank;YvonneDiallo-Sahli,SwissAgencyforDevelopmentandCooperation.
Photography
Cover©UNHCR/BrianSokol/Flickr
Page3©JoelCarillet/iStock
Page8©LorraineBoogich/iStock
Page18©JanossyGergely/Shutterstock
4.0 Information
Partner
ThisbriefhasbeenfundedanddevelopedincooperationwiththeSwissAgencyforDevelopmentandCooperation.
ESG Team
TheteamatEarthSecurityGroupthatdevelopedthisproject:AlejandroLitovsky(projectdirector);JilleneConnorsBelopolsky(projectmanager);RichardBurrett(senioradvisor);CarolineHambloch,OrlaithDelargyandSimonFellermeyer(analysts),RupertBassett(designer)andPabloOrvananos(operations).
Earth Security GroupBusinessadvisorsforsustainablegrowthearthsecuritygroup.cominfo@earthsecuritygroup.com
Copyright©EarthSecurityGroup2016ThemarksEarthSecurityGroupandlogotype,theEarthSecurityIndex,theradialdiagramandthepresentationoftheinformationinthisdocumentarethepropertyofEarthSecurityLtd.andcannotbereproducedwithoutpriorwrittenconsent.
DisclaimerTheviewsandopinionsexpressedintheEarthSecurityIndex2016reportreflectonlytheviewsandopinionsoftheEarthSecurityGroup.
NoteAllcurrency$referstoUSdollarsunlessotherwisestated.
21FORCED DISPLACEMENT & DEVELOPMENT
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44 ‘2030WaterResourcesGroupReport’,USAIDJordan,2013.
45 ‘WorkforceDevelopment’,HydroponicGreenFarmingInitiative,USAID,2015.
46 ‘Jordan:NeighbourhoodSMEfinancing’,EuropeanInvestmentBank,February2016.
47 ‘HydroponicGreenFarmingInitiativeProgressReport:April-June2015’,USAID,2015.
48 http://wanainstitute.org/en/focus_area/green-economy
49 ‘EnergySituationinJordan’,MinistryofPlanning&InternationalCooperation(MOPIC),July2013.
50 ‘TheNationalClimateChangePolicyoftheHashemiteKingdomofJordan2013-2020’,MinistryoftheEnvironmentofJordan,2013.
51 ‘NeedsAssessmentReviewoftheimpactoftheSyriancrisisonJordan’,MinistryofPlanningandInternationalCooperationofJordan(MOPIC),November2013.
52 ‘Impactofenergycrisismostevidentinrisingpublicdebt—report’,TheJordanTimes,12July2015.
53 ‘UpdatedMasterStrategyofEnergySectorinJordanforthePeriod2007-2020’,‘MinistryofEnergy&MineralResourcesofJordan,2007.
54 ‘Heat,LightandPowerforRefugeesSavingLives,ReducingCosts’,Lahn,G.andGrafham,O.,ChathamHouse,November2015.
55 ‘Developingrenewableenergyprojects:AguidetoachievingsuccessintheMiddleEast’,EvershedsandPWC,January2016.
56 ‘MENASolarOutlook2016’,MESIA,2016.57 MOPIC,2013.Seenote51.58 ‘QatarienergyconsultancyGreenGulf
bringssolartechnologyandtrainingtoSyrianrefugeesinJordan’,GreenGulfInc.,22November2015.
59 InterviewwithEarthSecurityGroup.
5.0 Notes
1 ‘GlobalTrends:Forceddisplacementin2014’,UNHCR,June2015.
2 ForuptodateUNHCRfiguresonSyriaRegionalRefugeeResponse:http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php
3 ‘GlobalTrends:Forceddisplacementin2015’,UNHCR,June2016.
4 UNHCR,2016.Seenote3.5 ‘3RPRegionalRefugeeandResilience
Plan2015-2016inresponsetotheSyriaCrisis’,UNHCR&UNDP,2015.
6 ‘TheILOResponsetotheSyrianRefugeeCrisis’,ILO,2016.
7 ‘Jordan’sRefugeeCrisis’,Francis,A.,CarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace,2015.
8 ‘OvertheHorizon:ANewLevant’,WorldBank,2014.
9 ‘TheWelfareofSyrianRefugees:EvidencefromJordanandLebanon’,Vermeetal,WorldBank,2016.
10 ‘UrbanRefugees’,UNHCR,2016.http://www.unhcr.org/uk/urban-refugees.html(accessed3June2016).
11 ‘Protracteddisplacement:uncertainpathstoself-relianceinexile’,Crawfordetal,OverseasDevelopmentInstitute,2015.
12 ‘AddressingProtractedDisplacement:AFrameworkforDevelopment-HumanitarianCooperation’,OCHA;UNDP;UNHCR;UNICEF;WFP;WorldBank,2015.
13 ‘3RPRegionalRefugeeandResiliencePlan2015-2016inresponsetotheSyriaCrisis’,UNHCR&UNDP,2015.
14 Vermeetal,2016.Seenote9.15 ‘ImpactofSyrianRefugeesonthe
JordanianLabourMarket,ILO&Fafo,2015.
16 ‘TheRegionalRefugeeandResiliencePlan(3RP)inresponsetotheSyriaCrisis:Mid-YearReport.’UNHCR&UNDP,June2016.
17 MENAFinancingInitiative2016.https://www.menafinancing.org(accessed3July2016).
18 ‘BiometricCashAssistance’,UNHCRInnovation,2016.http://innovation.unhcr.org/labs_post/cash-assistance(accessed16July2016).
19 UNHCR&UNDP2016.SeeNote16.
60 ‘OntheHorizon:Up-scalingSolarPVforSelf-ConsumptionintheJordanianMarket’,TheRegionalCenterforRenewableEnergyandEnergyEfficiency(RCREEE),2014.
61 ‘RenewableEnergyinJordan’,ClimateParliament,2013.
62 Jordan’sEnergyFuture’,Greenpeace,2013.
63 ‘RafeaUmGomar:ThefirstfemalesolarengineerinJordan’,UNWomen,1October2014.
64 JordanianMASEwinsMiddleEastSolarIndustryAssociationAwardforRooftopSolarProject’,MASE,13December2015.
65 YellowDoorEnergy,2016.http://yellowdoorenergy.com(accessed29June2016).
66 ‘StudyofmechanismstoincentivisethefinancialsectortoscaleupfinancingofgreeninvestmentinJordan’,AdamSmithInternational,May2013.
67 ‘Frenchinitiativetofacilitateloansforgreenenergyprojects’,Ghazal,M.,TheJordanTimes,25June2014.
68 ‘MinisterurgesBalqayouthstobenefitfromSMEloans’,TheJordanTimes,27July2016
69 http://www.edama.johttp://www.yeajordan.com/jordan-vision-2020/andhttp://www.oasis500.com/application-form
70 ThefigureofSyrianrefugeesinJordanis657,203(updated1August2016)‘SyriaRegionalRefugeeResponse-Inter-agencyInformationSharingPortal’,UNHCR,1August2016.
71 JordanResponsePlanfortheSyriaCrisis2016-2018’,MinistryofPlanningandInternationalCooperationofJordan(MOPIC),2016.
72 ‘SyrianRefugeesinJordanConfrontingDifficultTruths’,Carrion,D.,ChathamHouse,September2015.
73 ‘AccesstoHousingandTensionsinJordanianCommunitiesHostingSyrianRefugees:ThematicAssessmentReport’,REACHInitiative,June2014.
74 ‘IntegratedAssessmentofSyrianRefugeesinHostCommunities:EmergencyFoodSecurityandLivelihoods;Water,SanitationandHygiene;Protection’,OXFAM,March2013.
75 ‘HouseholdAssessmentDatabase,with4,964casesrepresentingcloseto42,000refugeesfromSyria’,NorwegianRefugeeCouncil,2014.
76 ‘JordanRefugeeResponseInter-SectorWorkingGroup’,UNDP,March2016.
77 MOPIC2016,seenote71.78 ‘Domesticenergyconsumptionpatterns
inurbanBhutan’,LhendupT.etal.,EnergyforSustainableDevelopment14,2010.
79 MOPIC,2016.Seenote71.80 ‘JordanAffordableHousingProgramme’,
UN-Habitat,2015.81 InterviewwithEarthSecurityGroup82 ‘Jordan’sGreenestBuildings.’Hosking,
J.,VentureMagazine,19October2015.83 ‘Jordan’snewestmalldebutslarge-
scalegreentechnology’,Quran,L.,AssociatedPress,7July2016.
84 ‘AREE–AqabaResidenceEnergyEfficiency’,Khasawneh,J.,TheCenterfortheStudyoftheBuiltEnvironment,October2011.
85 ‘WhatDesignCanDo,’2016.http://www.whatdesigncando.com(accessed1July2016).
86 ‘Governmentpreparing10-yearplanforconstructionsectorgrowth’,TheJordanTimes,26October2015.
87 Quran,L.,2016.SeeNote83.88 ‘GreenBuildingDevelopmentinJordan’,
RoyalScientificSocietyofJordanandtheFriedrich-Ebert-StiftungAmmanOffice,2013.
89 ‘SkillsandOccupationalNeedsinGreenBuilding’,ILO,2011.
90 ‘ShelterWorkingGroupMeeting:SyrianRefugeeResponseinJordan’,UNHCR,13March2014.
91 ‘WeSmart’,JordanGreenBuildingCouncil,2016.http://jordangbc.org/blog/project/we-smart(accessed5July2016).
92 ‘Jordan’sParadoxofGrowthwithoutEmployment:AMicrocosmoftheMiddleEast?’,TaghdisiRad,S.,SchoolofOrientalandAsianStudies,UniversityofLondon,August2011.
93 ‘ILO&Fafo,2015.Seenote15.94 ‘EvaluatingtheeffectoftheSyrian
refugeecrisisonstabilityandresilienceinJordanianhostcommunities’,REACHInitiative,2014.
95 ‘LabourmarkettransitionsofyoungwomenandmeninJordan’,Barcucci,V,andMryyan,N.,ILO,2014.
96 ‘Jordan’sfivebiggestchallenges,fromISIStothePalestinianquestion’,Awadallah,B.,CNN.com,23June2015.
97 ILO,2016.Seenote6.98 ‘ILO&Fafo,2015.Seenote15.99 ‘SyrianRefugeesinJordanConfronting
DifficultTruths’,Carrion,D.,ChathamHouse,September2015.
100 ‘InJordan,tensionsrisebetweenSyrianrefugeesandhostcommunity’,Luck,T.,WashingtonPost,21April2013.
101 WorkpermitsforSyrianrefugeesinJordan,InternationalLabourOrganization,RegionalOfficeforArabStates,2015
102 ILO&Fafo,2015.Seenote15.103 ‘MadeinJordan:InsidetheUnexpected
PowerhouseofGarmentManufacturing’,Williams,S.,TheBusinessofFashion,15September2015.
104 ‘Anationofrefugees:Jordanstruggleswiththosefleeingregionalcrises’,Su,A.,AlJazeeraAmerica:25July2014.
105 ‘MPCProfile:Jordan’,MigrationPolicyCentre,2013.
106 ILO&Fafo,2015.Seenote15.107 ‘LetthemWork’,Mansur,Y.,Venture
Magazine,10May2015.108 ‘Governmentsendsmessagesof
assuranceoverintegratingSyriansintolabourforce’,Obiedat,O.,TheJordanTimes,11February2016.
109 ‘EU-Jordan:towardsastrongerrelationship’,EuropeanCommission,20July2016.
110 ‘Jordantoallow200,000Syrianstoworklegally’,Laub,K.andMalkawi,K.,TheNationalWorld,5March2016.
111 ‘AccesstojobsimprovingforSyrianrefugeesinJordan’,Rummery,A.,UNHCR,19April2016.
112 Obiedat2016.Seenote108.113 Interviewsconductedbythe
EarthSecurityGroup.114 Vermeetal.,2016.Seenote9.115 ‘MunicipalNeedsAssessmentReport:
MitigatingtheImpactoftheSyrianRefugeeCrisisonJordanianVulnerableHostCommunities’,UNDP,2014.
116 ‘IsWaterScarcityDampeningGrowthProspectsintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica?’,Devlin,J.Brookings,24June,2014.
22FORCED DISPLACEMENT & DEVELOPMENT
23FORCED DISPLACEMENT & DEVELOPMENT
117 MOPIC,2013.Seenote51.118 ‘TheAlignedNationalActionPlan
toCombatDesertificationinJordan2015-2020’,MinistryofEnvironmentofJordan,2015.
119 ILO,2016.Seenote6.120 ‘TowardsaGreenEconomyinJordan’,
UNEP,2011.121 EDAMA,2016.
http://www.edama.jo(accessed17June2016).
122 ‘RiseandShine’,VerBruggen,S.,PVMagazine,April2012.
123 ‘SupportingSyriaandtheRegionConference’,February2016London,https://www.supportingsyria2016.com(accessed29April2016).
124 ILO&FAFO,2015,Seenote15125 ‘UNHCRWorkPermitPilotProjectto
SupportSyrianRefugeeEmploymentinJordan’sApparelIndustry’,BetterWorkJordan,ILO&IFC.http://betterwork.org/jordan/?p=1439(accessed2August2016).
126 ‘DevelopmentZonesforSyrianRefugees’,Brunnermeier,M.etal,CenterforInternationalGovernanceInnovation,7December2015.
127 ‘WorldBankWoosWesternCorporationstoProfitFromLaborofStrandedSyrianRefugees,Lazare,S.,Alertnet,24February2016.
128 UNHCR2016.Seenote3.129 UNHCR2015.Seenote1.130 UNHCR2016.Seenote3.131 ‘GlobalReportonInternal
Displacements’,InternalDisplacementMonitoringCentreandNorwegianRefugeeCouncil,19May2016.
132 Crawfordetal2015.Seenote11.133 ‘AddressingProtractedDisplacement:
AFrameworkforDevelopment-HumanitarianCooperation’,OCHA;UNDP;UNHCR;UNICEF;WFP;WorldBank,2015.
134 UNHCR2016.Seenote3.135 Crawford,etal.,2015.Seenote11.136 ‘Mid-yearTrends2015’,UNHCR,2015.137 UNHCR,2016.Seenote3.138 ‘UrbanRefugees’,UNHCR,2016.
http://www.unhcr.org/uk/urban-refugees.html(accessed3June2016).
139 UNHCRdatabase.http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php(accessed25April2016).
140 ‘UNHCRPolicyonRefugeeProtectionandSolutionsinUrbanAreas’,UNHCR,September2009.
141 ‘RethinkingCoordinationofServicestoRefugeesinUrbanAreas:ManagingtheCrisisinJordanandLebanon’,Culbertsonetal,RANDCorporation,2016.
142 ‘Resilience-baseddevelopmentresponsetotheSyriacrisis’,UNDP,2013.
143 ‘TransformingourWorld:The2030AgendaforSustainableDevelopment’,UnitedNations,2015.
144 ‘TheRoadtoDignityby2030:EndingPoverty,TransformingAllLivesandProtectingthePlanet.SynthesisReportoftheSecretary-GeneralonthePost-2015Agenda’,UnitedNations,December2014.
145 ‘RefugeeEconomies:RethinkingPopularAssumptions’,AlexanderBettsetal,HumanitarianInnovationProject,UniversityofOxford,June2014.