GECAFS Comprehensive Scenarios WorkshopGECAFS Comprehensive Scenarios Workshop18-19 August 2003, University Of Reading UK18-19 August 2003, University Of Reading UK
G. Fischer, M.M. Shah, H.T. van VelthuizenInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
GECAFSScenarios : Spatial, Temporal
Food ProvisionProduction & Trade = Consumption
Driving Force and VulnerabilitySocial, Economic, Environmental
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
Food System Scenarios
FAO : Towards 2030
IFPRI 2020
IIASA : Towards 2080(ecologically spatial, global environmental change …)
Food ProvisionVulnerability & Sustainability
Social VulnerabilityPopulation, Hunger, Poverty, Health, Education…..
Economic VulnerabilityAgriculture Economy, Trade and Aid, Employment & Livelihoods,…..
Environmental VulnerabilityLand, Water, Biodiversity, Pollution……
Historical Population Density, 1700 – 1990
History Database of the Global Environment
Reference: K.Goldeweijk and J.J. Battjes
Reference: Ramankutty, N. and J. Foley, 1998, 1999.
Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment
Historical Cropland Dataset (1700-1992)Fraction of grid cell in croplands
Population Growth2000-2080
Source: Lutz et al., 2001
Share of Agriculture in Total Population (%)
Source: FAO AGROSTAT, 2000
Source: FAO AGROSTAT, 2000
Share of Agriculture in Total Population
0
20
40
60
80
100
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
OECD EEUR LAM SAFR MEA SEAS CASI
GDP Index
% of Population in Agriculture
Population
Poverty
Per Capita GDP Index
Source: Human Development Report, 2001
GDP Index = (log(GDP/CAP)-log(100))/(log(40000)-log(100))
15
30
45
60
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
OECD EEUR LAM SAFR MEA SEAS CASI
GDP Index
GINI Coefficient
Income Distribution vs. Per Capita GDP
Source: Human Development Report 2001
Change in number of people living below $1 per day, 1987-98
-150.4
-60.4
16.5
-3
-3.3
47.4
84.4
-200 -100 0 100
chan
ge
in n
um
ber
s li
vin
g i
n e
xtre
me
po
vert
y
Sub-Saharan Africa
Middle East and NorthAfrica
Latin America and theCaribbean
Eastern Europe andCentral Asia
South Asia
East Asia and Pacific(excluding China)
East Asia and Pacific
0
20
40
60
80
80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Index of Food Supply / Food Required
% u
nd
ern
ou
rish
ed
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1969-71 1979-81 1990-92 1997-99
mill
ion
peo
ple
Latin America &Carribean
South Asia
East Asia
Near East & North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
The State of Food
Insecurity
(Source: FAO, 2001)
Millennium Goals
Goals for 2015
50% Reduction in hunger (cf 1974, 1996, 2002)
67% Reduction in child mortality
50% Reduction in poverty
50% Increase in access to potable water
Universal primary education
Eliminate gender disparity
75% Reduction in maternal mortality
Reverse spread of HIV/Aids
WB Cost Estimate: $40 to $60 billion a year
FAO Hunger Estimate: $ 24 Billion a year
Land UseLand Use is at the core ofEconomy–Society–EnvironmentEconomy–Society–Environment relationships
LANDUSE
SYSTEMS
Agro-ecological Zones Methodology
Global Agro-ecological Zones
Environmental resources database
including climate, soil, terrain, and land cover
comprising 2.2 million grid cells,
assessing the agricultural potential
Food crops, Bio-energy crops, Livestock Systems
Fish : Inland and marine ?
BLS Model System18 National Models, 2 Regional Models, 14 other Regional Models
Commodities : wheat, rice, coarse grains, protein feed, bovine and ovine meat,dairy products, other animal products, other food, non-food agriculture,non-agriculture.
Linkage : trade, world market prices and financial flows
National and Regional ModelsArgentina, Australia, Austria, Brazil, Canada, Egypt, Indonesia, Japan, Kenya, Mexico, New Zealand, Nigeria, Pakistan, Thailand, Turkey, China, India, USA
European Union, Eastern Europe and former USSR
AFRICA (Oil exporters, medium and low income : exporters and importers)
LATIN AMERICA (high-income : exporters and importers, medium income)
SOUTHEAST ASIA (high-medium income exporters and importers)
SOUTH ASIA (low income)
SOUTHWEST ASIA (oil exporters, medium-low income)
Rest of the world
Integrated ecological-economic Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Food and Agriculture Systems
COUNTRY A
WORLD MARKETS
International prices to satisfy: • commodity balances • financial transfer balance
COUNTRY B
COUNTRY ECOUNTRY DCOUNTRY C
EXCHANGE EQUILIBRIUM
Prices, consumption, stocks, net exports to satisfy:
• Budget constraint • Market clearance • Trade balance • Trade quota
GOVERNMENT POLICIESTarget price, tariffs, taxes, quota, etc.
PRODUCTION
Non-agricultureproduction
Agricultureproduction
Production inputs:
• Land • Fertilizer • Labour • Others • Capital
International commodity prices PW Net trade EA
PW
PWPWPW
EC ED EE
EB
The International Linkage in the World Food System Model
CLIMATECHANGE
FORESTLOSS /
DEGRADATION
BIODIVERSITYLOSS
LANDDEGRADATION
FOODPRODUCTION
Food Production andGlobal Environmental Change
FRAG-MEN-TATION
GENETICDIVERSITY
PESTI-CIDES
SOILFERTILITY
EROSION,SALINIZATION
CONVERSION
HYDRO-LOGY
FERTILIZER
AGRO-ECOLOGY
CARBON
FIRES, PESTS
Climate ChangeTemperature rise
Precipitation changeSea-level rise
Variability & extreme events
Emissions andconcentrations
Greenhouse gasesAerosols
Human andnatural systems
Land and water resourcesEcosystems and biodiversity
Human settlements & infrastructureHuman health
Socio-economicDevelopment path
Demographic changeEconomic growth
TechnologyPolicy & Institutions
Adaptation,Vulnerability
Imp
acts
Mit
igat
ion
Climate Change and DevelopmentClimate Change and Development
Source: IPCC, 2001.
IPCC SRES Scenarios
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
GD
P $
/cap
A1-MDC
A1-LDC
A2-MDC
A2-LDC
B2-MDC
B2-LDC
B1-MDC
B1-LDC
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
mil
lio
ns
AML
ASIA
REF
OECD
B2
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
mil
lio
ns
AML
ASIA
REF
OECD
A2
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
mil
lio
ns
AML
ASIA
REF
OECD
A1, B1
IPCC SRES Development Scenarios to 2100
Population, Scenario B2
Population, Scenario A1, B1
Population, Scenario A2
GDP per caput
CLIMATE VARIABILITYCLIMATE VARIABILITY
DroughtsFrequency of Droughts : 115 Affected Population : 163 millionEthiopia, Mozambique, Somalia : 43% Ethiopia, Mozambique, Somalia : 62%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
all 14 countries Ethiopia, Mozambique, Somalia,
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
all countries Ethiopia, Mozambique, Somalia,
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
19611965
19691973
19771981
19851989
19931997
All countries Mozambique, Somalia, Zambia
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
All countries Mozambique, Somalia, Zambia
Floods Frequency of Floods : 127 Affected Population : 17 million Mozambique, Somalia, Zambia : 27% Mozambique, Somalia, Zambia : 50%
IIASA ScenariosSpatial : National and Regional
Temporal : Annual to 2080
EnvironmentalLand and Water resources – Agro-ecological zones
Climate Change – GCMs/IPCC 3GGI - Mitigation and Adaptation
Economy and TradeNational/regional and international
SocialPopulation and demography, Hunger and Poverty, Health…