Fiscal Policy
Fiscal Policy
Fiscal Policy is changes in federal spending and taxes to achieve macroeconomic objectives; price stability (mostly pursued by the FED, not the Gov’t), economic growth, and full employment.
1946 Full Employment Act – To “promote maximum employment, production, and purchasing power.“
Fiscal – Latin for “treasury”, but originally for “purse or basket”.
Automatic Stabilizers vs. Discretionary Spending
Automatic Stabilizers are government spending and taxes policies that automatically decrease or increase in a countercyclical manner.
When the economy is expanding, spending on unemployment insurance goes down and taxes go up due to rising incomes. Therefore, we have a decrease in G and an increase in T automatically, helping to curb any overheating in the economy.
During recessions, unemployment benefits increase and taxes decrease automatically, helping to stimulate the economy and mitigate the recession.
Discretionary Spending vs. Mandatory Spending
Discretionary Spending – Spending that is controlled by Congress and the President from budget to budget.
National Defense, housing, NASA, education and science, transportation, foreign aid, the EPA.
Mandatory Spending – Spending enacted by laws and cannot be changed unless the law changes.
Social Security, Medicare
Trends in Federal Spending as a Percentage of GDP
1787 - 1849: 1.7% of GDP 1850 – 1900: 3.1%, including the Civil War 1901 – 1930: 4.7%, but as high as 17.2% and 24.2%
during 1918 and 1919, respectively 1931 – 1941: 9.3% 1942 – 1945: 39.4% during WWII 1946 – 1959: 18.3 % 1960 – 2010: 19.9%Since 1947, U.S. government spending has been roughly stable between 16% and 25% with a very slight trend upward. From 1960, there is no discernible trend with spending fluctuating between 18% and 25%.
Trends in Federal Spending as a Percentage of GDP
Even though federal spending has increased over the years, federal purchases on goods and services has declined as a percentage of GDP since 1954 from roughly 17% to roughly 5%.
Federal Gov’t Purchases of G&S and Total Federal Expenditure as a Percent of GDP
Government Budget: 2012
Trends in Federal Spending as a Percentage of GDP
Military Spending to GDP: 10% from the 1950’s and Eisenhower’s warning of the MIC to around 5% today.
Social Security: 2.5% in 1962 to 4.8% in 2010.
Medicare: 0.7% in 1971 to 3.6% in 2010.
Medicaid: 0.3% in 1971 to 1.9% in 2010
Defense Spending as Percentage of GDP
Social Security as Percent of GDP
Medicare as Percent of GDP
Sources of Current Deficits
http://www.cbpp.org/cms/?fa=view&id=3849
Effect of the ARRA on Total Fed. Expenditures
Federal Expenditure Including Transfer Payments
Long-Run Debt Burden
Sources of Increases in Spending
http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/06-05-Long-Term_Budget_Outlook_2.pdf
Projected Growth in Major Federal Spending Categories
http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43969
Social Security and Deficits
Myth: Social Security is a tremendous burden on our deficits.
Fact: Social Security is self-funded program, that by law, cannot pay out more that it has accumulated in its trust fund. It does not directly* add to the debt. For years it has generated a surplus.
Surpluses must be purchased by government.
Social Security is the largest owner of federal debt.
The trust fund is expected to be exhausted by 2033.
*http://crfb.org/blogs/general-revenue-social-security-trust-funds
Medicare and Deficits
Medicare runs a deficit. It was never supposed to be fully self-funding, except for part A (hospital insurance) and relied on general revenues.
The HI insurance trust fund has run surpluses for years and is currently drawing down on those surpluses.
The surpluses will be depleted in several years.
Parts B (medical insurance), Part C (Medicare Advantage), and Part D (prescription drug coverage) all draw from the general fund.
Increases in Medicare Spending
http://aspe.hhs.gov/health/reports/2013/medicarespendinggrowth/ib.cfm
Is Medicare a Spending Problem or a Healthcare Problem
The US spends more than twice as much per person on healthcare compared to the average developed nation.
Our doctors, hospitals, prescription drugs, and medical supplies are very costly.
If the US could manage to get its healthcare costs in line with other comparable countries, our deficit problems turn into surplus “problems”.
Per Capita Spending on Healthcare
http://pgpf.org/Chart-Archive/0006_health-care-oecd
Is Medicare a Spending Problem or a Healthcare Problem
http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/sorry-kids-thomas-friedman-is-not-very-good-at-economics
Medicare Costs are Slowing
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/erp2013/ERP2013_Chapter_5.pdf
Main Taxation Categories: 2013
http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3822
Sources of Federal Tax Revenue: 1945 - 2013
Tax Receipts as Percentage of GDP
http://www.heritage.org/federalbudget/current-tax-receipts#
Taxation
Marginal tax rate (MTR) are additional taxes owed as a percentage of additional income.
Average tax rate (ATR) are total taxes owed as a percentage of total income.
Three Main Types of Taxes Based on Tax Rates
Regressive: A regressive tax system is one where the rates decrease with an increase in income up to a certain point. Where the MTR < ATR
Proportional: Proportional taxation is where a fixed rate is applied regardless of the income amount. Where the MTR = ATR
Progressive: A progressive tax system is one where the rates increase with an increase in income up to a certain point. Where MTR > ATR
Fiscal Policy Effects on GDP, Price Level, and Employment
Changes in government spending (G) or taxation (T) can affect real GDP, employment, and the price level.
Expansionary Fiscal Policy – increases in G or decreases in T which will increase AD.
Price levels, GDP, and employment increase.
Contractionary Fiscal Policy – decreases in G or increases in T which will decrease AD.
Price levels, GDP, and employment decrease.
How Fiscal Policy Affects AD
Problem Type of Policy Actions by Congress and President
Result
Recession Expansionary Increase G and/or decrease T
Increases in real GDP, employment, and price level
Rising Inflation (due to overheating economy)
Contractionary Decrease G and/or Increase T
Decreases in GDP, employment, and price level.
ARRA: Spending in Billions
ARRA: Tax Cuts in Billions
Was the ARRA Effective?
“Estimated Impact of the ARRA on Employment and Economic Output from April 2011 Through June 2011”, CBO.
http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/08-24-ARRA.pdf
Year Change in Real GDP
Change in UE Rate
Change in Employment (Millions)
Change in FTE Employment(Millions)
2009 0.9% to 1.9% -0.3% to -0.5% 0.5 to 0.9 0.7 to 1.3
2010 1.5% to 4.2% -0.7% to -1.8% 1.3 to 3.3 1.9 to 4.8
2011 0.8% to 2.3% -0.5% to -1.4% 0.9 to 2.7 1.2 to 3.7
2012 0.3% to 0.8% -0.2% to -0.6% 0.4 to 1.1 0.4 to 1.3
Why Was the Recession so Severe?
Why did a $825 billion dollar stimulus package leave the economy with real GDP far from its potential with unemployment rates over 9%?
Recession accompanied by financial crises tend to be more severe than recessions that do not involve a financial crises.
Reinhart and Rogoff gathered data on post-WWII countries that experienced a recession and a financial crisis, excluding the U.S.
Why Was the Recession so Severe?
EconomicVariable
Average Change Average Duration of Change (in years)
Number of Countries
UE Rate +7% points 4.8 14
Real GDP per capita
-9.3% 1.9 14
Real Stock Prices -55.9% 3.4 22
Real House Prices -35.5% 6 21
Real Gov’t Debt +86% 3 13
Why Was the Recession so Severe?
Comparing post-WWII recessions with the 2007-2009 Recession
Duration (in months)
Decline in Real GDP
Peak UE Rate
Average post –WWII recessions
10.4 -1.7% 7.6%
2007-2009 Recession
18 -4.1% 10.0%
Estimates of Various Multipliers
Economist Type of Multiplier Size
CBO Gov’t Expenditure 0.5 – 2.5
Iizetzki, Mendoza, and Vegh Gov’t Expenditure 0.8
Ramey Gov’t Expenditure 0.8 -1.5
Barro and Redlick Military Expenditure 0.4-0.5 (after one year) & 0.6-0.7 (after two years)
Cogan et al. Permanent Increase in Gov’t Expenditure
0.4
Romer et al. Permanent Increase in Gov’t Expenditure
1.6
CBO Tax 0.6-1.5 (lower & middle income) & 0.2-0.6 (higher income)
FRBSF Infrastructure 2 over 10 year time horizon.
ARRA Multipliers
http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/05-25-Impact_of_ARRA.pdf
ARRA Multipliers: Moody’s
http://www.economy.com/mark-zandi/documents/Small%20Business_7_24_08.pdf
Federal Budget and Automatic Stabilizers
Mild recessions do not warrant significant (or any) fiscal policy action. Why?
Automatic stabilizers help mitigate the recession with no significant action from Congress or the President.
During a recession, federal deficits automatically increase. Gov’t spending automatically increases on unemployment benefits, aid to low-income, food stamps, etc. while tax receipts fall due to falling income.
Conversely, federal deficits decrease during times of expansion.
The Effect of Economic Fluctuations on the Budget Deficit
The federal government’s budget deficit was $207.8 billion in 1983 and $185.4 billion in 1984.
Someone comments, “The government must have acted during 1984 to raise taxes or cut spending or both”.
Do you agree?
The Effect of Economic Fluctuations on the Budget Deficit
A falling deficit does not mean that government musthave acted to raise taxes or cut spending.
The budget deficit will automatically decline when GDP increases, ceteris paribus. Why?
An increasing GDP typically means falling unemployment, which reduces government spending and increases in tax receipts.
In fact, GDP did increase from $3.5 trillion in 1983 to $3.9 trillion in 1984.
Limits to Fiscal Policy
It takes a lot of time (2 – 6 years) to feel the full effects of fiscal policy due to four timing lags.
1. Recognition lag – the time period required to recognize a problem.
2. Decision lag – the time needed to decide on a suitable course of action, including passing the legislation.
3. Implementation lag – the time needed to coordinate the changes in the budget for the government agencies involved and change tax policies.
4. The impact lag – the time need for the multiplier effect to work its way through the economy.
Limits to Fiscal Policy
Crowding out – a decline in private expenditures (C and I) as a result in increases of government deficit spending.
This eventually reduces the supply of loanable funds, driving up interest rates, and curbing household borrowing and investment.
Recall: Investment is new capital accumulation which is a prime determinant in labor productivity and therefore economic growth.
This is more of a limitation at full employment than at a depressed economy.