Finland, 26 Apr 2018Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe,
Finnish Sawmills Owners Association
Global Megatrends in Container shipping
Rauma, 19 Sep 2017Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe,
A proud heritage
2
Established in 1871 by a consortium of eleven Hamburg merchants, we have developed
from a conventional shipping company into an internationally operating transport and
logistics organization.
Today, the Hamburg Süd Group ranks among the 10 major providers of worldwide ocean
transport and is well-known for individual logistics solutions from a single source and
tailored to customers’ needs.
Finland, 26 Apr 2018Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe, 3
Agenda
Market Environment & Fundamentals
Carriers, Trends & Development
Finnish Market Overview
Summary & Conclusions
Finland, 26 Apr 2018Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe,
Development of GDP Growth Projections2015 – 2018F (IMF)
4
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook October 2017
Finland, 26 Apr 2018Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe,
Growth in Container Transport / World Economic Growth2012-2018F (in %)
5
Source: Alphaliner Monthly Monitor December 2017; Int. Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook December 2017
2,5
5,1
3,7
4,75,0
6,5
3,23,4
3,63,53,5 3,73,6
3,2
2018F2017F20162015
1,4
201420132012
World Economic Growth
Container Transport Growth
Finland, 26 Apr 2018Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe,
Cellular Fleet Growth vs. Global Throughput2000-2018F (in %)
6
Source: Alphaliner Monthly Monitor February 2018
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
10
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
8
6
4
2
02011
15,4
2010
14,3
2009
13,1
2008
12,411,0
2006
9,6
2005
20,0
8,3
2004
7,3
2003
6,7
2002
6,2
2001
5,6
2000
5,0
23,0
in %in m TEU
22,3
2017F
21,1
2016
20,3
201520142007
18,4
2013
17,3
2012
16,3
2019F2018F
% Global Throughput GrowthFleet Capacity% Annual Cellular Capacity Growth
Finland, 26 Apr 2018Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe,
Global Container Throughput vs. GDP Growth (TEU-to-GDP Multiplier)
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-10%
5%
-5%
0%
10%
20%
15%
2020F
2019F
2018F
2017F
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
GDP multiplier
Global GDP growth %
Container throughput growth %
1990-1999 Avg. Multiplier: 3.4 2000-2008 Avg. Multiplier: 2.6 2010-2016
Avg. Multiplier: 1.4 2017F: 1.7
Source: Alphaliner Newsletter No. 42 – 2017
Finland, 26 Apr 2018Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe,
Dynamar Trade Growth FY 2017 vs. 2016 (in %)
8
1,9%
7,1%
4,7%
North
America
Europe
4,6%
Intra-
Regional
4,7% Ø 5,1%
Australasia
7,7%
5,5%
4,1%
Far East
0,4%
4,4%
5,9%
7,2%
Latin
America
3,8%
Middle
East/ISC
Africa, Sub
Sahara
8,6%
11,0%
5,2%
Import Growth FY ’17 vs. ‘16
Export Growth FY ’17 vs. ‘16
Source: Dynaliner Weekly 06 2018
Average
Growth
Finland, 26 Apr 2018Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe,
Development of SCFI (ex Shanghai)last 52 weeks
9
Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange, week 09
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2017
USD / TEU
SCFI
Europe
South America EC
US West Coast
Australia / New Zealand
South Africa
Finland, 26 Apr 2018Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe,
Development of SCFI (ex Shanghai)last 52 weeks
10
Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange, week 09
827
2309
626
772
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2017
USD/TEU
Europe South America EC US West Coast SCFI
Finland, 26 Apr 2018Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe,
Bunker Price Development vs. SCFI since 01/2016 (indexed)IFO 380 Rotterdam, MGO Rotterdam
11
Source: Platts Oilgram Bunkerwire, Shanghai Shipping Exchange
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18
IFO Rotterdam
MGO Rotterdam
SCFI
Finland, 26 Apr 2018Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe,
Bunker Price Development since 01/2016IFO 380 Rotterdam, MGO Rotterdam
12
Source: Platts Oilgram Bunkerwire
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18
US
D / t
IFO Rotterdam
MGO Rotterdam
07 March 2018MGO 578 USD/t
07 March 2018IFO 366 USD/t
Finland, 26 Apr 2018Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe,
Evolution of Idle Containership Fleet2008-2018
13
Source: AXS-Alphaliner Newsletter No. 7, 2018
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1,0
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
1,8
Jan.
2010
Jan.
2011
Jan.
2012
Jan.
2017
Jan.
2016
Jan.
2015
Jan.
2014
Jan.
2018
Jan.
2009
Jul.
2008
Jan.
2013
0,9%65 vessels
m T
EU
NOO
Liner
11,7%572 vessels
NOO
Liner
Finland, 26 Apr 2018Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe, 14
Agenda
Market Environment & Fundamentals
Carriers, Trends & Development
Finish Market Overview
Summary & Conclusions
Finland, 26 Apr 2018Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe,
Development of Newbuilding Orders and Deliveries*2009-2019F
15
Source: Alphaliner Monthly Monitor February 2018
NOO
Liner
*Forecast Figures are based on the current orderbook.
0,0
0,7
1,7
0,3
1,9
1,1
2,3
0,3
0,7
0,3
1,1
1,4
1,2 1,31,4
1,5
1,7
0,9
1,2
1,5
0,9
-
1
1
2
2
3
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
Orders (in m TEU)
Deliveries (in m TEU)
Finland, 26 Apr 2018Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe,
Carrier Consolidation – Outlook 2018*
Source: Alphaliner Top 100, 6th March 2018
4,5
4,0
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
Capacity in m
TE
U
COSCO
/ OOCL
SITCKMTCQASCX-Press
Feeders
Wan
Hai
HMMZIMPILYang
Ming
Ever-
green
Ocean
Network
Express
(3J)
Hapag-
Lloyd /
UASC
CMA
CGM
MSCMaersk
/ HSDG
Existing Fleet
Orderbook
16
*The proposed transactions are subject to regulatory approvals
Finland, 26 Apr 2018Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe,
Average operating margin Container Carrier* 2011-2017
5
3
-1-1
-8
-9
-6-6
-2
2
5
1
3
0
-2
-4
1
-1
-3
-1
5
1
-12
-11
-7
-6
0
Q3Q2Q1 Q3Q1 Q4Q2Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4 Q2Q2Q1Q4Q3 Q3Q1 Q3Q1Q4Q2
20162014201320122011 ‘17
*Average of: CMA CGM (incl. APL to 2Q 2016), CSCL (until 1Q 2016), EMC, Hanjin (until Q2 2016), Hapag-Lloyd
(incl. CSAV until 2014), HMM, KL, Maersk, MOL, NYK, WHL, YML, ZIM Source: AXS Alphaliner Newsletter No 48, 2017; Annual Reports
17
2015
Finland, 26 Apr 2018Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe,
Global schedule reliability Top 20 (+/- one day)
18
Source: SeaIntel
80%
50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%
Wan Hai
Hamburg Sud
Evergreen
HMM
COSCO
OOCL
CMA CGM
MSC
Maersk Line
APL
ZIM
Hapag Lloyd
UASC
NYK
K Line
PIL
MOL
Yang Ming
Global Top 20 ranking 2017 (Jan-Dec)
Finland, 26 Apr 2018Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe, 19
Agenda
Market Environment & Fundamentals
Carriers, Trends & Development
Finish Market Overview
Summary & Conclusions
Finland, 26 Apr 2018Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe,
Finnish Market Overview (Seabury) – Focus on East Med &
Far East
20
Finland, 26 Apr 2018Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe, 21
Agenda
Market Environment & Fundamentals
Carriers, Trends & Development
Finish Market Overview
Summary & Conclusions
Finland, 26 Apr 2018Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe,
Summary & conclusions
22
◼ Long poor economical development has created a waive of mergers within the industry
◼ We will see fewer and stronger players within global containers markets
◼ More healthy results will enable carriers to focus the future investments more to
desperately needed digitalization and stabilize the balance sheet. Block Chain
◼ Geopolitical aspect. National carriers
◼ Ship size increasing both deep-sea and short sea (Feeder)
◼ Decreasing number of ports
◼ Keep Finland interesting market for the carriers
Finland, 26 Apr 2018Mikael Ruhala / Area North Europe,
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© 2017 Hamburg Süd