February 16, 2014
Samir Tantawi1
Domestic Climate Change
Related Activities in
Various Sectors in Egypt
Cairo Climate Talks
Samir Tantawi, 17.Feb.2014
Ministry of State for Environmental Affairs (Ministry of State for Environmental Affairs (MSEAMSEA))
Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (EEAAEEAA))
ContentsContentsContentsContents
Introduction
GHG emissionsin Egypt
Mitigationpotential in Egypt
• Energy
• Industry
• Transport
LECB Programme
NAMAs
Introduction
GHG Emissions
February 16, 2014
Samir Tantawi2
Mitigation
GHG Emissions in Egypt
Background Background
Population: 84,203,661 (2013 est.)
GDP (PPP) (2011 est.) :– Total: $508.265 billion
– Per capita: $6,361
GDP by Sector (2010 est.)
– agriculture: 13.5%;
– industry: 37.9%;
– services: 48.6%
1990 1990 1990 1990 1990 1990 1990 1990 (INC,(INC,(INC,(INC,(INC,(INC,(INC,(INC,9999999999999999)))))))) 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 ((((((((SNC,SNC,SNC,SNC,SNC,SNC,SNC,SNC,1010101010101010)))))))) 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 ((((((((TNC,TNC,TNC,TNC,TNC,TNC,TNC,TNC,1414141414141414))))))))
GHG emissions without LUCF GHG emissions without LUCF GHG emissions without LUCF GHG emissions without LUCF GHG emissions without LUCF GHG emissions without LUCF GHG emissions without LUCF GHG emissions without LUCF 116116116116,,,,739739739739....6 6 6 6 193193193193,,,,237237237237....6 6 6 6 ????????????
EmissionsEmissionsEmissions, in Gg CO2 equivalent
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72.16%66.36%
19%20.41%
8.85%12.65%
0% 0.58%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs+PFCs+SF6
1990 2000
EmissionsEmissionsGHG emissions by gas (without LUCF)
70.90%
60.13%
8.80%14.37% 15.43%16.46%
4.78%9.04%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Energy Industrial Processes Agriculture Waste
1990 2000
EmissionsEmissionsGHG emissions by sector (without LUCF)
Mitigation Potential
in Egypt
Emission trend
SOURCE: CAIT database on Egypt; POLES projections; CIDIAC; Enerdata; IEA Egypt profile; Global Insight; McKinsey Global GHG
Abatement Cost Curve V2.0; Loca experts interviews; team analysis
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Power, cement, transport and other industry
will increase their share of total emissions
SOURCE: CAIT database on Egypt; POLES projections; CIDIAC; Enerdata; IEA Egypt profile; Global Insight; McKinsey Global GHG
Abatement Cost Curve V2.0; Loca experts interviews; team analysis
Potential abatement
Overall abatement potential is in the range of ~200 Mt CO2e, equivalent to
~36% of BAU at 2030
SOURCE: CAIT database on Egypt; POLES projections; CIDIAC; Enerdata; IEA Egypt profile; Global Insight; McKinsey Global GHG
Abatement Cost Curve V2.0; Loca experts interviews; team analysis
Most potential abatement comes from key sectors
which account for ~80% of the total abatement
SOURCE: Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0
National Inventory System (NIS)/Target/BUR
Low Emission Development Strategies/Plans
Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs)
Measurable, Reportable, Verifiable (MRV) System
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
Mitigation Framework
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NIS
StakeholdersProjects,
Programmes,
Initiatives
MRV Systems
NAMAs
CDM
Carbon
Footprint
Carbon
Neutrality
Mitigation Actions
NMM
Nat.
Com.
BUR
LEDS
Reporting
Legislation NegotiationsCC-National
Committee
CAPMAS IDSC
Mitigation
Framework in Egypt(TANTAWI, 2013)
Mitigation Potential
in Energy Sector
Energy Supply/Demand Deficit is expected to reach (30-50) Mtoebetween (2022- 2030)
i.e., about 24% - 35% of the Demand
The Challenge
Energy Efficiency Unit-IDSC
Enhancing exploration activities for fossil energy resources.
Upgrading Energy Efficiency (EE) both in the supply & demand side sectors.
Increasing the contribution of Renewable Energy (RE) resources.
Developing an appropriate energy institutional and legislative frameworks.
Abatement of the energy sector environmental impacts.
Energy Policy Reform
Energy Efficiency Unit-IDSC
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Adopting Sectoral/National EE Strategies targeting at least 10% savings of the total end use energy consumption by 2022.
Developing 10-year EE action plan(s) mainly for:
• - Greening the Industrial Sector.
• - Promoting Sustainable Transportation.
• - Enhancing EE in the Building Sector.
EE National Plan
Energy Efficiency Unit-IDSC
Waste Heat Recovery (WHR)
Combustion Control (CC)
Power Factor Improvement (PFI)
High Efficiency Lighting (HEL)
High Efficiency Motors (HEM)
Energy Management Systems (EMS)
Co-Generation
Energy Efficiency Technologies
Mohamed Salah Elsobki (jr.)
Metals
Food (beverages)
Chemicals
Paper
Glass
Pharmaceuticals
Textiles
Fertilizers
Commercial facilities, hotels, hospitals
Implemented at:
Mohamed Salah Elsobki (jr.)
150 thermal units were tuned
100 gas analyzers 208,000 TOE saved
Valued at 25 million US$
Increase in efficiency about
7.7%
25% of the industrial thermal units have a potential for energy
savings
Tune up of boilers and furnaces
Mohamed Salah Elsobki (jr.)
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CO2 reductions 611,781 tons
CO reductions 5,379 tons
NOx reductions 2,563 tons SOx reduction 14,273 tons
Tune up of boilers and furnaces
Mohamed Salah Elsobki (jr.)
• Implementing the planned MOEE Large Scale Wind and Solar plants.
• (NREA targets to build 2,500
MW of solar power plants;
2,800 MW CSP & 700 MW PV
plants; out of which 67% is to
be implemented by private
sector).
• Promoting PV distributed applications (2,000 Mw by 2022).
RE Electricity Generation
RE National Plan – to be updated
Energy Efficiency Unit-IDSC
• The use of SWH in 50% of the newly established buildings and promoting local production.
• Promoting market to reach 850,000 installed SWH by 2021/2022; expected to save 1.4 Mtoe and 3,000 GWhannually
SWH in the Housing and Tourism sectors:
• IPH consumes 35% of the industry energy consumption; 10-15% of it can be saved by low and medium solar heating systems.
Solar Industrial Process Heat Systems
• Biogas for rural development - energy and fertilizers from urban and agriculture solid waste.Promoting Biomass
Energy Systems
RE National Plan – to be updated
Energy Efficiency Unit-IDSC
Power SectorPower Sector
Total investment required through 2011-2030 to capture the overall potential is in the range of EUR ~22 billion
Solar, Wind and Hydro, with a total abatement potential of ~54 Mt CO2e represent the most relevant levers
~37% of the overall abatement potential (~43 Mt CO2e) is driven by reduction of electricity demand in consuming sectors (mainly from building
sector)
Overall abatement potential ~116 Mt CO2e, (~56% of total power BAU emissions in 2030)
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Efficient Lighting for residential and commercial sectors as well as street lighting.
Energy Efficiency Labeling for appliances and with relevant standards were developed.
Energy Efficiency Code in Buildings.
SEC approved a RE target of 20% of produced electricity by 2020, including Hydro.
12% of wind produced electricity by 2020 (7,200 MW), currently 540 MW in operation.
COM approved the Solar generation plan targeting 3,500 MW by 2027.
Current Major P&M
Energy Efficiency Unit-IDSC
Mitigation Potential
in Industry Sector
By the end of 2007 two bounding forecasts for a national energy supply/demand scenarios were developed.
The scenarios were based on:An overall average 6-7% annual development rate.Supply of fossil based energy production will remain at the same level .A starting energy supply mix of around 2007/08:
94% from fossil fuel and NG5% hydro1% from wind and others
Energy supply/demand scenarios
IMC
By year 2022 other national resources become available:
The scenarios were based on:Wind energy grows, leading to about 20% contribution to electricity generation from renewable (hydro and wind).
Nuclear energy would contribute about 6%.
The energy supply mix around 2021/2022 becomes:
40 % from (20% fossil fuel and 20% NG)
8 % from energy efficiency implementations
9 % from renewable (2% hydro and 7% wind)
6 % from nuclear
37% additional energy is needed
Energy supply/demand scenarios
IMC
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By year 2022 other national resources become available:
The scenarios were based on:Wind energy grows, leading to about 20% contribution to electricity generation from renewable (hydro and wind).
Nuclear energy would contribute about 6%.
The energy supply mix around 2021/2022 becomes:
61 % from (20% fossil fuel and 41 % NG)
8 % from energy efficiency implementations
9 % from renewable (2% hydro and 7% wind)
6 % from nuclear
Only 15 % additional energy is needed
Energy supply/demand scenarios
IMC
Equivalent
National % Savings
Sector
potential % Savings
Current
(2010-2011) % use
End user sector
0.0551Agriculture & Irrigation
0.45153Gov. & Pub. Utilities
3.001520Residential & Commercial
4.501529Transportation
9.402047Industry17.7100All Sectors
Potential energy saving at end user level (2020)
IMC
Enhance mitigation in industry
Green incentives creation
Encouraging and facilitating more climate-conscious purchasing decisions by consumers
Adopting low-carbon production processes
Spearheading low-carbon growth investment and technological
Enhance mitigation in industry
Enhancing the knowledge and capabilities of industry
obtaining financial support
capacity building for Industry
create national networks for the exchange of data
and best practices
Encouraging energy efficiency and cost savings
identify high priority mitigation actions potential domestic barriers
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Potential for Emissions ReductionPotential for Emissions Reduction
Industry Current
Emissions
(Mt
CO2/yr)
Specific
Emissions
(t CO2/t
product)
Potential
Decrease in
Emissions
(t CO2/t
product)
Percent
Reductio
n
(%)
Reductio
n
(Mt
CO2/yr)
Cement 36.37 0.78 0.20 26% 9.30
Iron and
Steel
14.57 1.29 0.30 23% 3.40
Fertilizer
(Ammoni
a)
4.80 1.05 0.32 30% 1.44
Emissions by Sector (t COEmissions by Sector (t CO22//yr)yr)
Cement 65%
(36,364,943)
Iron and Steel
26%
(14,566,343)
Fertilizer 9%
(4,800,152)
Mitigation Potential
in Transportation
Transportation SectorTransportation Sector-- BAUBAU
28 Mt CO2e (2005)
~12% of total Egypt emissions
72 Mt CO2e (2030)
~13% of total emissions
Light Duty Vehicles (LDV)
Medium Duty Vehicles (MDV)
<16 tons
Heavy Duty Vehicles (HDV)
>16 tons
~44%
~53%
~3%
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Transportation SectorTransportation Sector--StrategyStrategy
Others…
Increase transport safety measures and levels
Design the legal and institutional framework for implementation of the polices and measures
Design and implements measures for commercialization of services into the overall infrastructure network; and rehabilitation of road network;
Design transport master plans for each mode of transport
Design national policies for SD transport
LECB in Egypt
ArgentinaArgentina BhutanBhutan ChileChile ChinaChina ColombiaColombia
Costa RicaCosta Rica D.R.C.D.R.C. EcuadorEcuador EgyptEgypt GhanaGhana
IndonesiaIndonesia KenyaKenya LebanonLebanon MalaysiaMalaysia MexicoMexico
MoldovaMoldova MoroccoMorocco PeruPeru PhilippinesPhilippines TanzaniaTanzania
ThailandThailandTrinid &
Tob.Trinid &
Tob.UgandaUganda Vietnam Vietnam ZambiaZambia
List of participating countries
Europe/CISArab States LACAsiaAfricaPhase
EgyptArgentinaPhilippinesDRCPhase I
Morocco ChileChinaKenya
ColombiaUganda
Ecuador Zambia
Mexico
Peru
Moldova LebanonCosta Rica BhutanGhanaPhase II
Trinidad & Tob.IndonesiaTanzania
Malaysia
Thailand
Vietnam
13876Total
List of participating countries, Cont.
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Identify opportunities for NAMA
• NINOs [12]
• Energy + Trans. [8]
• Energy Eff. [4]
• NAMAs [6]
• Energy Eff. [3]
• RE [2]
• Trans. [1]
Design LEDS in the context of national
priorities
• A LEDS framework will be developed and shall be linked with sustainable development goals
Design MRV systems for proposed NAMAs
• MRV systems to be designed to support implementation and evaluation of associated NAMAs and LEDS
• national
• Int’al
Adoption of mitigation actions by
selected industries
• Mitigation projects[4]
• Cement
• Fertilizer
• Iron & Steel (tbd)
Project Outcomes
Project Objective
Increase capacities of Public Sector to design LEDS, NAMAs and MRV, and establishment of mitigation action plans and MRV systems in selected industries
Management Arrangements for Implementing the Project
National
Committee on
Climate Change
Ministry of State
for Environmental
Affairs
UNDP
Country Office
Project
Stakeholders
Representatives
Project
Steering
Committee
EEAA Climate Change
Central Department-
Head of the Dept.
(Project Director) &
the Mitigation
Manager
Project National
Coordinator
UNDP Project
Officer
Project Secretariat Project Management &
Secretariat
Technical Teams
Steering Committee Steering Committee Steering Committee Steering Committee (Proposal)(Proposal)(Proposal)(Proposal)
Environment
Electricity & Energy
Industry
Transport
Utility
Housing
Foreign Affairs
Planning
Petroleum
Agriculture
Civil Aviation
Interior
Finance
Challenges
NIS
Volatility of Carbon
Markets
Future of CDM & Carbon
Markets
Fund (GCF, Long
Term Finance, ..etc)
Capacities (institutional,
individual)
Technology Transfer
MRV (Domestic Criteria)
LEDS (sector specific)
P-P-P
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LECB
Others…?
IEE
EPAP
CPC
Integration with others
policies/strategies
capacity building
awareness
finance/technologies
LECB: Low Emission Capacity Building (UNDP+)
IEE: Industrial Energy Efficiency (UNIDO+)
EPAP: Egyptian Pollution Abatement Project (WB+)
CPC: Cleaner Production Center (UNIDO+)complete … not compete!
NAMAs
Domestic Supported Credited
Types
Principles
Voluntary reductionNot to replace Annex-
I commitments Firewall between NAMAs and CDM
Barriers
Financial Institutional Technical Information Capacity
NAMAsNAMA Steps
GIZ NAMA Tool, Ver8.6
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Questions
Comments
Suggestions
Samir Tantawi, Ph.D.
LECB Project ManagerEgyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (EEAA)Ministry of State for Environmental Affairs (MSEA)United Nation Development Programme (UNDP)Mob.: +2 012 2 630 50 [email protected]
www.lecb-eg.org