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Access to the Global Internet:Which Technology Will Win?
Evolution
+ 3G builds on existing networks+ Huge volumes
+ Global spectrum
Separate network
Optimized for voice
Old technology
Revolution
+ IP networks+ Optimized air interfaces
+ Design for converged traffic
+ New technology for low cost
No global spectrum or approval
No market momentum
Timing?
For most of the world in 5 years(aside from North America and part of Europe):
Phone = Cell Phone
Internet = Wireless Internet
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Industry Directions for Networking
Cellular Telecom Approach
Efforts to define wireless data networking standard(General Packet Radio Service - GPRS) begin before fullimpact of Internet explosion is felt
Internet-Based Approach Use Internet standards for networking and mobility with
extensions to interoperate with cellular air interfaces (e.g.,GPRS, CDMA2000)
GPRS standards
begin
1990 1995 2000
153M Internet
Users
1998
3M Internet
Users
1994
1992
FPLMTS
standards begin
1st GPRS
customers
Microsoft & AT&T still
competing with Internet
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3G Mobility:The Evolutionary Route to Wireless Data
Paul Mankiewich and Rich Howard
Bell Labs, Lucent Technology
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3G Cellular Systems:The Enabler of the Global Internet
Wireless Networksbecome the point of access
that funnels end user
experience into the
Internet
Wireless
Network
Internet
First Contact With the Internet for Most People in the World Will be Wireless
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Integrated Wireless Services--The Vision
Wi-Fi (WaveLAN)
Radio Hub
Cable, xDSL, V9010/100-BaseT
Wireless LAN
Bluetooth
Wireless PAN
Multimedia &MessagingServer
integratedvoice and data
video postcards
in-call imageup/download
codec converter bandwidth manager store & forward playback
Content
GPRS/EDGE/
TDMABaseStation
UMTS/CDMA2000BaseStation
IP Network
Wireless Backbone and Gateways
LocationServices
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Migration of Digital Cellular Systems
UMTS
GSM Circuit-Switched Voice
GPRS
GPRS: General Packet Radio Service(17.6 kbps x 8)
EDGE: Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution(59.2 kbps x 8)
UMTS: Universal Mobile Telecomm Systems
EDGE
IS-136 Circuit-Switched Voice
IS-136+
EDGE
Packet Voice & Dataover EDGE
Packet Voice & Dataover UMTS (WCDMA)
Circuit-SwitchedCircuit-Switched Voice
Packet-Switched DataPacket-Switched
CDMA2000
PacketData
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Mobility Subscriber Projections:Analyst View
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200Ovum
Goldman Sachs
EMC
IDC
Herschel Shosteck
Merrill Lynch
Nokia Press Release
Ericsson Press Release
Lucent View
Ovum 283 363 433 500 562
Goldman Sachs 295 385 483
EMC 299 421 569 730 896 1049
IDC 257 325 396
Herschel Shosteck 298 405 519
Merrill Lynch 301 397 493 588 683 766 840 913
Nokia Press Release 10000
Ericsson Press Release 300 390 490 600 700 800
Lucent View 300.5 390.7 477.8 564.9 675.3 809.2 924.5 1041
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
5/99 Est
5/99 Est EMC
1.3B by 200
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The Voice/Multimedia Revenue Gap($ Millions)
Source: International Data Corp, 1998/Level 3
Todays IP Market
Todays Voice Market9.4%=
Todays Voice Market
Switched Telephony 462,763
Fax 64,775
Total 527,538
Todays IP Market
Data Services 37,092
Internet Access 15,471
IP Telephony 1,890
IP VPN 419
Total 54,872
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Consumer Cocktail: DoCoMo I-mode
Service offered:- Security trading (2 traders)- Banking (31 banks)- Travel- Concert tickets- News- Network game- Total of 1300 I-mode web sites
Subscriber uptake:- Service Launch February 22, 1999- 20,000 in March- 100,000 in April- 90.000 new subscribers/week in August- August 99: 1.2 million subscribers (24 million DoCoMo users)- E-mail and mobile banking most popular
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I Mode in Japan: 6M Subscribers in Under 1 Year(and the Rate is Increasing)
~140,000 newsubscribers/week
DoCoMo Website 6/1/2000
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Wonder Swan
Hand-held Game DeviceSold 1.4 M units in Japan in one year
Email send and receive (SMTP)
Internet Access (mini-browser)
Remote download of mini-games
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Applications and Network Capability Linked to Market Segment
Cost of Service is Clearly Low (10 Yen = 8 Cents)
High School Girls
10 YEN P-MailBusiness
ProfessionalValue Mail
Capability
Speed 64K
Wireless Data in the Japan Market
Market
Segment
H.S. Girl
Application
64K
Dating Connection
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Mobility: Data vs Voice
Almost all traffic (and revenue) is voice
BUT, mobile data is growing much faster than voice
US is behind Europe and Japan
Japan is approaching 50% data traffic
Today systems are circuit switched and spectrally inefficient
2G systems => ~$600/hour for video or $60/hour for MP3 3G systems have
IP backbones
Lower cost per bit
Easy service creation
What will be the services? Who will pay the bills?
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Migration of Digital Cellular Systems
UMTS
GSM Circuit-Switched Voice
GPRS
GPRS: General Packet Radio Service(17.6 kbps x 8)
EDGE: Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution(59.2 kbps x 8)
UMTS: Universal Mobile Telecomm Systems
EDGE
IS-136 Circuit-Switched Voice
IS-136+
EDGE
Packet Voice & Dataover EDGE
Packet Voice & Dataover UMTS (WCDMA)
Circuit-SwitchedCircuit-Switched Voice
Packet-Switched Data
Packet-Switched
CDMA2000
PacketData
M bilit S b ib P j ti b T h l
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0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000UMTSGSM
TDMA (3G)
TDMA
cdma2000
cdmaOne
Analog
Other
UMTS 0 0 0 0 6745 14897 30641 56955
GSM 69653 12935 19285 25262 37672 45591 50086 53171
TDMA (3G) 0 0 0 0 140 885 2660 5445TDMA 6833 14343 23932 35560 65122 83438 10399 12685
cdma2000 0 0 0 0 1285 6000 15435 27519
cdmaOne 7109 20642 36216 56735 11130 14577 18394 22237
1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mobility Subscriber Projections:by Technology
Lucent WNG View
Subscribers in Thousands
GSM
UMTS
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3G Data Options
Wireless
Technology
Spectral
Bandwidth
Modeled
ThroughputPeak Data Rate
Expected Market
Introduction
3G-1X1.25 MHz for
Data100-180 Kbps
305 Kbps
(mobile)1H2001
(144Kbps peak rate)
HDR1.25 MHz for
Data400-600 Kbps
2.4 Mbps
(fixed/mobile)1H2002
EDGE Com act 1 MHz for Data 190-275 Kbps 384 Kbps(mobile) 1H2002
EDGE Classic2.7 MHz for
Data330-370 Kbps
384 Kbps
(mobile)1H2002
Wideband
CDMA-DS
5 MHz for
Voice/Data480-720 Kbps
2 Mbps (fixed)
384 Kbps
(mobile)
1H2001 (Japan)
1H2002 (Eur/NA)
Wideband
CDMA-3X5 MHz for Data 480-720 Kbps
2 Mbps (fixed)
384 Kbps
(mobile)
2H2002
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The next generation architecture uses Internet based client-server platforms to enableuniversal services and reduce network cost structure.
Todays Wireless Networks
99% Mobile Voice
Circuit Derived
BaseStations
Next Generation Networks
PacketMode
ServersHigh Speed Data,
Multimedia, Voiceover IP, etc.
WirelessControlServers
Feature Control, Network
Management, Billing, etc
Universal Services - Voice or Data & Wireless or Wireline
Client/Server Model - Internet Derived (IP)
RadioClients
MSC
Internet / Advanced ServicesPSTN
CircuitMode
Servers
Voice, LSCircuit Data,
etc.
PSTN
NetworkServers
MobileSwitches
IP / ATM Core Network
Transition to Next Generation Networks
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Services Rollout
Portal Link
Web access
Intranet
3G
1Q1999 4Q1999 4Q2000 4Q2001
WAP
launch
Mobile Office
Schedule Management
Work flow Management
Electronic Conference
File Sharing
Video
Multi-player
Games
Music
m-banking
Interactive TV
TV Conference
Information
Services
Radio
Visual, High
Speed
SMS
Picture clips
Route planning
Chat
Roomemail
GPRS
Video clips
Web cam
m-stock tradingm-cash
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10
Ericsson
R320 WAP Phone
& MC218
Mobile Companion
Docomo
Pocketboard
QUALCOMM
pdQ smartphone
Motorola
StarTAC clipOn
Organizer NeoPoint1600 smartphone
Nokia
7110 phone &
9110 Communicator
Sharp
Zaurus
Bandai
WonderSwanSamsung MP3 Phone
The Devices are Awesome
Can 3G Deliver?:
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Courtesy Gee Rittenhouse 3/7/00
Can 3G Deliver?:UMTS Capacity Estimates
Overall about 6x increase over IS-95 for voice
3x comes from bandwidth--5 MHz vs 1.25 MHz
2x from modulation, coherent detection, and signal processing tricks.
For user rates up to ~128 kbps (BER=~1e-4 )
1.8 Mb/sec total for all 3 sectors in 5 MHz of spectrum each way.
About 5.4 Mb/sec/basestation total for a 15 MHz up/15 MHz down license
=> ~42 users/basestation at 128 kbps Range ~2-3 Km => Can cover UK with about 10-20K basestations
Capacity for about 1% of the population at 128 kbps
Smart antennas can increase this by at least 4X
If 10% of the population wanted 128 kbps continuous (e.g. MP3)
~20-40K basestations with 4 antennas in a terminal
Reasonable flat-rate pricing possible
Will UMTS Happen?:
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License Winner Price
A TIW UMTS (UK) Limited 4,384,700,000B Vodaphone Limited 5,964,000,000C BT (3G) Limited 4,030,100,000D One2One Personal Communications Limited 4,003,600,000E Orange 3G Limited 4,095,000,000
Will UMTS Happen?:Results of UK UMTS Spectrum Auction
~$34B says it will!
Rest of Europe by Fall
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Backups
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Multiple Access Schemes
CDMADifferent Languages
FDMADifferent Carriers
TDMADifferent Time Slots
FHSSOrthogonal Time Slots & Carriers
Enhanced Data for Global Evolution
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(EDGE)
Defines an evolution of GSM and TDMA technologies to support high bit rate
circuit and packet data services Builds on GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) air interface and network
with adaptive modulation and coding
Uses 200 kHz bandwidth channels
Two versions of EDGE:
EDGE Classic enables full backwards
compatibility with current GSM (4/12 reuse)
EDGE Compact enables limited spectrum(< 1 MHz) deployments
Channel structure supports:
Peak throughputs up to 474 kbps
Average throughputs up to 384 kbps (up to
200 kbps for EDGE Compact with limitedspectrum deployments)
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Wireless data network
Macrocellular data rates ~384 kbps (UMTS-FDD)
Minicellular data rates ~1 Mbps (UMTS-TDD) Picocellular data rates ~1-20 Mbps (Bluetooth, hyperLAN)
Increasing data rate, decreasing cell size
Macrocell-mobile
r~3-5 km
Minicell-mobiler~1 km
Picocell-pedestrianr~100 m
BLAST technology used in every one
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Internet Volume Approaches Voice
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E+07
1.E+08
1.E+09
1.E+10
1.E+11
1.E+12
1.E+13
1.E+14
Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00
B
i
t
s
/
s
e
c
Voice/Modem
Total Internet
WWW
New networks will need to be deployed as demands for data and interactiveservices approaches capacity of existing voice/data networks
Projected
Actual
Worldwide voice/modem traffic
Source: Internet Society
Projected Crossover
1999
Data=10xVoice
2000
Real Time Services Via GPRS & IP:
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PSTN
IP/ATM Core Network
ANSI-41BackboneNetwork
PacketGateway5ESS
Switch To Data and VOIPGateways
SGSN GGSN
CircuitData IWF
Packet Voice (VOIP) startswith an IP Client in theterminal, the call modelresides in feature serverson the IP network.
Traditional Circuit voice is
supported as before.
IP Client in terminalfor Voice andpacket data
TraditionalCircuit voicesupported byMSC
7REFeatureServers
7REResourceServers
Customer
Care NMServers
PacketGateway
CallControlServers
MobManager
7RESignalingGateways
APsAPs
Phase 2 - VOIP Starting at Terminal
Use Todays Wireless Voice Infrastructure and Interconnect
with the Packet Core Network at a PSTN trunk level.
Enhanced Data for Global Evolution ( ti d)
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(continued)
Handoff enabled through reselection procedures
Current work in ETSI to define VoIP and Real-Time services over EDGEin GSM Release 2000
Phase 1
Standards: Release 99
Large deployments start in 2002
Some initial deployments start in 2001
Supports best effort packet dataat speeds up to about 384 kbps
Phase 2
Standards: Release 2000
Large deployments start in 2003
Some initial deployments start in 2002
Will add Voice over IP capability
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3G Solution Direction
One Network delivering Voice and Data services
Supporting all major 3G Technologies to enable operators to meet global market
needs IP Centric Network Architecture for Internet derived services
Future proof platform that evolves with the IP networking industry
Working with Sun to deliver next generation services with carrier grade reliability(99.999%)
Flexible Service Creation
Provides platform for integration of mobile and internet environments
Rapid service delivery for Lucent developed and third party services
Retain value in wireless network by creating operator controlled value addedinterfaces
Operators want to be more than an IP pipe provider
Rapid Network Deployment Easy to install and maintain
Self Optimizing
Integrated maintenance capabilities to reduce life cycle costs