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RED LINETHE
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THE RED LINE
LIVING next door to China is not
easy. Like most of Chinasneighbours, India too has
grappled hard to cope with Beijings
unpredictable behaviour. For decades
after the 1962 debacle, a closed group
of China experts handle this
relationship, keeping every detail
outside public domain and every move
a tightly-guarded secret. But from theyear 2004, the media turned its gaze at
this relationship. The Indian Express, in
particular, has traced and exposed the
problems with China, raised public
debate and yanked apart the veil of
secrecy.
A series by PRANAB DHAL SAMANTA.
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Contents
5CHINAS TIES WITH OTHERS MUST NOT HURT INDIA, PM TELLS XI JINPING
7TIME FOR INDIA TO MOVE BEYOND MANAGING CHINA
8SIGNALS FOR HOPE IN ASIAN MEET
9BEIJINGS BEAR HUG FOR COLOMBO: RAJAPAKSA AMONG XIS FIRST 5 CALLS
11DEFENCE MINISTRY CLEARS NEW CORPS ON CHINA BORDER
12CHINAS RISE HASNT CREATED PROBLEMS FOR INDIA: KHURSHID
13INDIA, CHINA LONG WAY FROM BORDER SOLUTION
15POOR MILITARY LEADERSHIP, NOT EQUIPMENT, LED TO 1962 DEBACLE: REPORT UNDER WRAPS
18CHINAS DIPLOMATIC OFFENSIVE
19RAW BEIJING CHIEF DISMISSED FOR IMPROPRIETY
20CHINA PUTS INDIAN OIL BLOCK UP FOR AUCTION
21WILL CHINA THREAT LAST 2 YRS? FINMIN STALLS MILITARY EXPANSION
22GROWING UP ON CHINA
24TALKS GLITCH: DATES MIX-UP, QUIET MOVES THAT CHINA GOT WIND OF
25CHINA NOW REHEARSES CAPTURE OF TIBET PASSES
26CHINA FLEXING MUSCLES, GOVT CLEARS BRAHMOS FOR ARUNACHAL
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27DELHIS HOTLINE TO BEIJING WAITS FOR ROOM IN PMO, TECH UPGRADE TO MATCH THE CHINESE
28INDIA-CHINA BORDER: JOINT MECHANISM ON CARDSA
29INDIA HITS CHINA WALL IN ANTI-TERROR TALKS
30CHINA RED FLAGS INDIA MOVE TO JOIN NSG
31INDIA, CHINA WORK ON RESUMING DEFENCE EXCHANGES
32PLANS ON TRACK, CHINA RAIL LINK TO STRETCH TO NEAR SIKKIM BORDER
33CHINA BEGUNS BUILDING DAM ON ITS SIDE OF BRAHMAPUTRA
35CHINA STRIKES BACK ON ARUNACHAL
36THE CHINA CHILL (COLUMN)
38INDIA-CHINA FACE-OFF WORSENS OVER ADB LOAN TO ARUNACHAL
39AT ADB, BEIJING BLOCKS INDIAS $60 MILLION PROJECT FOR ARUNACHAL
40SLEEPLESS IN VIENNA: CHINA THREATENS TO LEAVE FOR HOME, US WORKS INTO THE NIGHT
42BEIJING SAYS WHY THE HURRY AS VIENNA MOVES CLOSER TO A DEAL
44TIP OF SIKKIM IS LATEST INDIA-CHINA FLASHPOINT
45CHINA DRAWS ANOTHER HARDLINE ON ARUNACHAL
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I
n an obvious reference to the nature of Chinas
relationship with Pakistan and some of Indias
other neighbours, Prime Minister Manmohan
Singh is learnt to have told Chinas new President,
Xi Jinping, that its important for Beijing not to
allow its ties with other countries become an
impediment to advancing India-China relations.
Singh conveyed this to Xi in their first meeting
in Durban on Wednesday night even as they struck
a healthy rapport during the 45 minutes they
spent with each other. Sources, however, said
Singh did not make the point in a confronting
manner.China and Pakistan recently signed an agree-
ment to build the Chashma-3 nuclear reactor
despite serious objections from the Nuclear Sup-
pliers Group. Many other countries such as Sri
Lanka, Nepal and Maldives have also been repeat-
edly playing the China card to threaten India.
Xi did not respond to Singhs comment but is
believed to have emphasised on deepening secu-
rity and military trust between India and China
by conducting more joint exercises and training,
while also looking to enhance maritime coopera-
tion.
The Chinese President, sources said, felt India
and China had a strategic opportunity now to
upgrade their military cooperation, a subject Bei-jing has been pushing at the official level too.
Xi also proposed that the two countries jointly
Chinas ties with others
must not hurt India, PMtells Xi Jinping
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build high-speed railways in India given the giant
strides China has made in this area. He felt that
such efforts could pave the way for greater cooper-
ation in mega projects in the future. Railways is
one area which was identified in the India-Chinaeconomic dialogue as a potential area of coopera-
tion since it is state-owned in India as well.
The only concern that the Chinese side raised
was the Tibet issue, where Xi hoped India would
maintain its responsible position. Later, sources
said, the PM reaffirmed Indias stand, conveying
that the Tibet Autonomous Region was a part of
China and also reminded Xi of the measures India
took to ensure the Beijing Olympic Games torch
travelled peacefully through India.
Its learnt that both leaders touched upon the
border row but reposed faith in the Special Repre-
sentative (SR) Mechanism as the best way forward
with Xi hoping for a fair, reasonable and accept-
able outcome. They also took note of the fact that
both sides have maintained peace and tranquility
on the border.
While the Chinese side has not yet named the
SR on its side after Dai Bingguo relinquished office,
the responsibility is expected to fall on new State
Councillor and former foreign minister Yang Jiechi,who was also part of Xis delegation at the talks.
Singh, sources said, managed to flag most of
Indias core concerns and specifically spoke about
trans-border rivers, where Xi did make the point
that China shares hydrological data with its neigh-
bours and promised to study the PMs proposal for
a joint mechanism.
The overall tenor of the conversation, sources
said, was constructive with Xi describing the two
countries as ancient civilizations with a prosper-
ous future. Singh felt both countries were moving
through a transformation, which provides oppor-
tunities for cooperation and its for the two gov-
ernments to make the best of it.
Published on March 30, 2013
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THERES an unmistakable air of caution in
the Indian camp ahead of Prime Minister
Manmohan Singhs first meeting with new
Chinese President Xi Jinping, perhaps prompted bythe uncertainty that often grips Chinese behavior.
This is accentuated by the fact that Xi is riding the
back of a strong nationalist sentiment, which is
making conduct of every countrys China policy a
major challenge.
Yet, for India, its important to segregate the spe-
cific from the overall mood. Chinas national atten-
tion is focused to the East and on how it stands up
to the US. In many ways, this is a phase of aspira-
tional foreign policy for China one which is will-
ing to upset settled equations, terms and attitudes.
Two appointments signify this. One is the eleva-
tion of former foreign minister Yang Jiechi to the
position of state councillor. While most in India
remember him for pulling back from certain com-
mon interpretations of the 2005 India-China
boundary principles agreement, the fact is he is
Chinas long regarded US expert and is a sign of
what is on Beijings priority list.Yangs successor in the foreign office, Wang Yi,
is a Japan specialist, again emphasising the eastern
focus. This is not to say India is not important but
its not in the same category, which is where
Indias best strategic opportunity with China lies
one that New Delhi needs to grab with both hands.Now is the time to shun reticence and move
beyond the managing China approach as India
finds itself in a different situation compared to
some of Chinas other neighbours. Lets not forget
much of China was built due to Japanese invest-
ment and prowess.
At this point, Beijing is willing to do all it can to
accommodate New Delhi, be least provocative
and, in a way, manage India. The sudden eager-
ness to scale up military CBMs with India, and the
new Chinese Premier Li Keqiang including India in
his first two phone calls after taking charge are just
a few instances of this changing trend.
This is the time for India to shift gears, set the
agenda and not be tentative. But can Singh swim
against the tide to further a strategic goal in an
election year? The Chinese would assess he cant.
And thats the impression which needs to change
when Singh walks up to Xi on Holi night.
Published on March 27, 2013
Time for India to move beyondmanaging China
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IN diplomacy, signals are important this
appears to be Indias focus as Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh readies for his first meeting
with Chinese president Xi Jinping on the margins
of the BRICS Summit here Wednesday.
Singh confined his arrival remarks to the main
purpose of the visit: BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India,
China and South Africa) is a young grouping with a
lot of promise. I look forward to meeting all digni-
taries who are attending.
But establishing a personal chemistry with Xi is
high priority, with New Delhi keen on unclogging
differences that have historically dominated this
discourse.Xis memories of history may in fact, be differ-
ent. In 1962, the year India and China went to war,
Xis father, the veteran revolutionary Xi Zhongxun,
was purged by Mao Tse-Tung for lending support
to the publication of a book deemed critical of
him. Xi Jinping, all of nine then, saw his life change
dramatically as his father spent the next 16 years
in prison.
He struggled to become a CPC member, his
application being rejected nine times because of
his fathers problems, until finally gaining entry in
1974. After Maos death, Xis father was rehabili-
tated by Hu Yaobang, the mentor of Hu Jintao, Xis
predecessor. Then started the re-emergence of Xis
family in the CPC, as his father got inseparably
associated with Chinas economic liberalisation
and the creation of its SEZs a project Singh was
to initiate in India in the next decade.
If bonding at the highest level is seen to hold thekey to stability in the India-China relationship as
had been the case between Singh and former Pre-
mier Wen Jiabao then the personal histories of
Singh and Xi, embedded in the economic transi-
tions of their countries, is of particular signifi-
cance.
And yet, the dynamics would have to be differ-
ent. Xi is a generation younger to Singh, and age
matters in Asian relationships. Also, New Delhi is
conscious about Xis close links with the Peoples
Liberation Army establishment.
These links took root between 1979 and 1982,
when Xi was personal secretary (mishu) to then
defence minister Geng Biao, also a friend of Xis
father. It is believed that Xis military associates
still remain his closest friends, with whom he likesto spend time, and which possibly impacts his
worldview.
But senior government sources emphasised Xi
has sought to send the right signals to India his
five-point formulation on relations and his letter to
Singh during the course of the political transition.
India will at some stage want a clearer enuncia-
tion of what Xi has in mind when he talks about
accommodating each others core interests. But
indications are it wont burden this conversation
with such issues unless they are vigorously
brought up by the Chinese side.
The focus is likely to be more on achieving com-
fort levels so that both leave the room on a hopeful
note. As a senior government source put it when
asked about the outcomes expected from the
meeting, We are not looking for outcomes. Thats
not the way we work. Its not Asian, just to look for
outcomes.
Published on March 26, 2013
Signals for hope in Asian meet
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WHILE India-Sri Lanka ties hit another
low after New Delhis proactive efforts
to censure Colombo at the UN Human
Rights Council, Chinese President Xi Jinping ele-
vated the island nations profile by including Presi-
dent Mahinda Rajapaksa in the first list of five
phone calls he made after formally taking over
from Hu Jintao last week.
In fact, Xi spoke with Rajapaksa on March 16,
the same day he spoke to his Pakistani counterpart
Asif Ali Zardari, which signalled that Beijing had
put Colombo at par with Islamabad. This, sources
said, is a significant leap because Pakistan is con-
sidered an all-weather ally and to place Sri Lanka
in the same category clearly reflected the comfort
levels achieved in the relationship.Xi made his first set of calls on March 14, and
predictably they were to the heads of three other
P5 countries where a president is the executive
head Barack Obama in the US, Vladimir Putin in
Russia and Frances Francois Hollande.
The next day, new Chinese Premier Li Keqiang
spoke to German Chancellor Angela Merkel and
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, indicating the
importance China attached to its relationship with
India. The premier is the counterpart for countries
where a PM is the executive head.
A day later, on March 16, Xi spoke to the presi-
dents of Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Xi is said to have
assured Rajapaksa of full support in his efforts to
protect Sri Lankas sovereignty and territorial
integrity. There were indications of support at the
UN Human Rights Council even though China is
not a member this time. Pakistan, it may be noted,voted against the resolution on Thursday.
Sino-Lankan ties have witnessed an upswing in
Beijings bear hug for Colombo:Rajapaksa among Xis first 5 calls
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AFTER much back and forth, the Defence
Ministry has cleared setting up of a
mountain strike corps along the China
border, signalling its intent to press ahead with
plans to strengthen offensive military capabilities
despite recent calls from Beijing for a new typeof military relationship.
The plan involves fresh accretion of close to
89,000 soldiers and 400 officers.
The focus, sources said, is to be able
to launch a counter-offensive into
Tibet in case of a Kargil-type
adventure by China.
The proposal was first mooted in
2010 and given an in-principle go
ahead by the Cabinet Committee on
Security a year later, but was sent
back last year with instructions for
a re-look by all three services so
that a common plan could be drawn
up.
It took the Chiefs of Staff Committee another
six months to review the plan, which was also
essential because the Army Chief had changed
since the proposal was first moved.Sources said the proposal has now been
reworked with some minor changes relating to
additional Air Force elements. The projected
amount too has gone up marginally from the ear-
lier estimate of about Rs 65,000 crore.
The new strike corps is expected to come up in
Panagarh, West Bengal, along with two more divi-
sions. An independent armoured brigade alongwith an artillery division may be part of the set-
up. Already, two divisions are being raised in the
eastern theatre.
However, the road ahead will still
be difficult, particularly given the
strain on the Finance Ministry at
this point. While this is not going to
be a one-time expenditure, it does
fly in the face of North Blocks
efforts to effect expenditure cuts to
contain the growing fiscal deficit.
In its last version too, the pro-
posal had faced some tough ques-
tions from the Finance Ministry,
including a searching query on how long South
Block expected the China threat to last. As of now,
China has made some very conciliatory noises.
However, New Delhi believes that is because of its
preoccupation on the eastern front.
Published on February 4, 2013
Defence Ministry clearsnew corps on China border
FRESH ACCRETION of close to89,000 soldiers, 400 officers
CORPS TO COME up inPanagarh, West Bengal, with twomore divisions
INDEPENDENT ARMOURED
brigade, artillery division may be
part of the set-up
SHOULD BE CAPABLE ofcounter-offensive into Tibet incase of a Kargil-type adventureby China.
THE PLAN
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WHILE conceding that there are issues of
concern between India and China,
External Affairs Minister Salman Khur-
shid on Sunday observed that for India, on thewhole, Chinas rise has so far been peaceful, and
any differences are dealt with in a matter of fact
manner.
I am not going to judge how other neighbours
of China or other people who engage with China in
the Pacific or elsewhere see their relationship
evolving. I think our relationship has evolved
peacefully. It has evolved steadily. There hasnt
been any major specific problem between us and
China, he told The Indian Express on his way back
from Myanmar.
According to Khurshid, the structure of interac-
tion between both countries was developing in the
right direction and deepening that held the key for
a building trust in the relationship.
Some little thing said here and there is not
going to distract us from that purpose and that, I
think, is the same attitude that China has.
He went on to add that the new leadership inChina had also placed a high priority on better
relations with India while making the point that
the manner in which India and China continue to
deal with their problems did reflect high maturity
level. He emphasised that none of the difficult
issues have escalated beyond control.Specifically on issues like the Chinese map on
the latest e-passports showing Arunachal Pradesh
as part of China, Khurshid said these issues were
being handled without any bitterness or causing
disruption of dialogue.
We have some issues on which periodically
they express, almost as though you want to keep
those issues on your agenda. Similarly for us, we
respond as well. Theres no hostility. Its very mat-
ter of fact. Its not done with any bitterness, hostili-
ty or aggression. Its like a conversation. You take
note of what you are saying and you flag and regis-
ter what the other person has said, and you leave it
at that and carry on.
In all, Khurshid assessed that both countries
were more than aware of their differences of the
past but had worked around and beyond those
differences while working in a satisfactory man-
ner to resolve those issues.
Published on December 17, 2012
Chinas rise hasnt createdproblems for India: Khurshid
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AJOINT status report of the 15 rounds of
special representatives talks to resolve
the vexed India-China boundary dispute
has concluded that both sides are far from their
goal despite some stated accomplishments.
A bigger concern that has emerged is that there
are serious differences in interpreting the 2005
agreement on the political parameters and guid-
ing principles for the settlement of the boundary
question, which is so far the most important
achievement of the three-stage process to arrive ata political solution. Significantly, sources said,
these differences seem to wax and wane depend-
ing on the strategic climate at that point in time.
The proposal to prepare such a report card came
at the last round in January from Chinas Special
Representative (SR) Dai Bingguo, who has been
Beijings representative at all 15 rounds and is now
expected to relinquish this responsibility. The
speculation is that Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi
might be elevated to a state councillor and take
this job up, but there is no information from Bei-
jing on this yet.
India agreed to the idea of the report, but theprocess has been tough with Indias SR, National
Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon, expected to
India, China long way
from border solution
National Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon (4th in left row) leading the Indian side during the 14th round of border talks with State Councillor
Dai Bingguo, Chinas designated special representative for the boundary negotiations, in Beijing. PTI
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hold last minute deliberations with Dai in Beijing
this week to bridge some gaps so that the two
interlocutors can, at least, present an agreed
report to their respective political leadership. Dai
and Menon had agreed that this exercise is impor-tant to ensure continuity with the interlocutor to
be appointed by the new Chinese leadership.
However, the exercise has shown that differ-
ences dominate despite positive proclamations. To
begin with, the Chinese side has claimed close to
60,000 sq km in Arunachal Pradesh, which may be
lesser than its earlier claims but remains signifi-
cant and includes Tawang.
The Chinese side believes this is in tune with
Article III of the guiding principles, which states
that both sides will make meaningful and mutual-
ly acceptable adjustments to their respective posi-
tions on the boundary question, so as to arrive at a
package settlement to the boundary question.
The Indian understanding of meaningful
adjustments is, however, different and does not
involve large chunks of land. New Delhi believes
that adjustments would mean minor territorial
give-and-take in the border areas during the pro-cess of demarcating a common line.
These extreme interpretations on both sides
have meant that Chinas emphasis on concessions
from India in the eastern sector has only increased
through the dialogue process, particularly in the
rounds after 2005. This is when the SRs started
working on a framework agreement - the second
stage of what is a three-stage settlement process.
The political impossibility of any Indian govern-
ment giving up large territory in the eastern sector
to achieve this settlement has not been recognised
by the Chinese side in all these rounds. Instead,
China has thrown back the argument that Indian
concessions in this sector is a political pre-requi-
site for any leadership in Beijing, pointing to Arti-cle V of the guiding principles that mentions tak-
ing into account national sentiments.
New Delhi too has its own set of arguments,
again based on the guiding principles, particularly
Article VII that says the two sides shall safeguard
due interests of their settled populations in the
border areas. India has interpreted to mean that
settled populations will not be disturbed, which
means Tawang and other populated areas of
Arunachal Pradesh will not be touched.
Beijing, however, contests this and makes the
point that safeguarding due interests of settled
population can be achieved alongside any shift in
territorial control. It argues that this principle does
not translate into recognising status quo in
Arunachal Pradesh.
As a result, the final nature of the agreed doc-
ument will probably not look to elaborate on the
interpretations of the guiding principles andinstead keep the claims separate from the 2005
agreement. This may reflect lesser progress, but
insiders feel it will not complicate future rounds
with any new interlocutor. Incidentally, the first
draft of the Chinese version of the joint report
was a complete articulation of only Beijings
position and since then, it has been an exercise
in calibration.
Published on Decemeber 2, 2012
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THERE is no reason why the Indian Army
cannot rise again and give a much better
account of itself. I hope when the day
comes, it happens under my escutcheon.
This was what Gen J N Chaudhuri wrote in a 40-
page covering note while forwarding the Hender-
son Brooks-PS Bhagat report on the 1962 military
debacle to the Defence Ministry.
Fifty years after the Sino-Indian war, the Hen-
derson Brooks-Bhagat report remains under
wraps but
The Sunday Express has learnt that around four
pages of this covering note focus on wartime
Defence Minister V K Krishna Menons interfer-
ence in military matters, particularly on the shuf-
fling of senior generals in the run-up to the
month-long war.The covering note, according to sources aware
of the contents of the report, is the only place
where there is a comment on the political leader-
ship of the Defence Ministry. There is no direct
comment on then Prime Minister Jawaharlal
Nehru anywhere in the letter or in the report,
which confines itself to the conduct of military
operations.
The important revelatory aspect of the Brooks-
Bhagat report is its conclusion that shortages in
ammunition and equipment were not among the
primary reasons for the defeat.
In fact, the report, sources said, makes it clear
that much has been stated about the poor quali-
ty of equipment and weapons making the Army
unfit for battle. The authors have put on record
that in their considered view the levels of stores
and equipment didnt constitute a significant
handicap. Instead, they have identified poor mil-itary leadership as the main reason for the Army
not having fought better than it did.
Poor military leadership, notequipment, led to 1962 debacle:
Report under wraps
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The report is in four volumes, but its main
operative content is less than 150 pages, typed
single space in foolscap paper with corrections
made by hand in ink. The rest of the report com-
prises essentially annexures, minutes of meet-ings, operational maps and key pieces of commu-
nication.
The report was commissioned by Gen Chaud-
huri, who took over as Army Chief after the war, as
an internal Army report to look into just the con-
duct of military operations since hostilities began
in early October 1962 till November 20 when Chi-
na announced a unilateral ceasefire.
For the job, he picked Lt Gen Henderson Brooks
who was GOC 11 Corps in Jalandhar and had not
participated in the operations. The report was
submitted in April 1963 and sent to the Defence
Ministry with Chaudhuris detailed covering note.
The language of the report reflects the strong
emotional fervour of the moment, especially the
anger and frustration. Coming down heavily on
the military leadership, the report is particularly
critical of the then Chief of General Staff Lt Gen B
M Kaul, who was made GOC of the newly created4 Corps just before the war. He was based out of
Tezpur, but was evacuated to Delhi on account of
illness just as hostilities broke out in what was
then called NEFA.
The report records him dashing in and out of
his York Road (now Motilal Nehru Marg) resi-
dence, issuing orders from his bed, and the top
brass letting him do so instead of finding a succes-
sor. These have all been cited as examples of poor
generalship.
Similarly, a copy Kauls letter to Nehru at the
height of the conflict, urging him to approach the
Americans for assistance, has been mentioned
and included in the annexures to underscore the
loss of nerves among senior officers.
Significant space, sources said, has been given
to the retreat of 4 Infantry Division which had
been quickly reconstructed after the Namka Chu
defeat and posted to defend the fallback linealong the Se La-Senge-Dhirang axis in Arunachal
Pradesh. This was after Tawang had been overrun
by advancing Chinese forces. It was decided that
this axis is where the Army would fight a dogged
and prolonged defensive battle for which
resources and logistics had been built up. The idea
was that longer the campaign stretched, the moredifficult it would get for the Chinese to sustain
operations.
But 4 Div withdrew without fighting, a fact that
is officially confirmed and documented in the
report. This entire episode of the collapse and
rout of the 4 Infantry Division has been
described in the report as a shameful incident of
a renowned division collapsing and retreating
without putting up a fight.
The GOC of the Division, Maj Gen Anant Singh
Pathania, has been severely criticised and shown
up as another example of poor generalship. The
loss of nerves among key military commanders is
again emphasised by citing an inland letter that
Pathania wrote to Harish Sarin, Joint Secretary in
Defence Ministry. He asked Sarin to give him
another chance, volunteering to be even deployed
as a sepoy at the front.
Pathanias appointment itself has been com-mented upon as an example of poor decision-
making by the military hierarchy. He was pulled
out as Director General, National Cadet Corps and
foisted on the 4 Infantry Division as the GOC,
which the Brooks-Bhagat report criticised given
that he had not been involved with combat troops
for a considerable length of time. The report,
sources said, is also critical of his predecessor Maj
Gen Niranjan Prasad under whom the Division
lost at Namka Chu.
The report highlights indecision at Army Head-
quarters and how field formations would faced
problems getting clear orders or clarifications
from the top brass in Delhi. In this context, West-
ern Army Commander Lt Gen Daulet Singh, who
was responsible for the campaign in Ladakh, has
come in for praise. In fact, the report firmly con-
cludes that the campaign in the western sector of
the boundary was conducted far better than the
eastern theatre.
The specific instance about Lt Gen Singh relates
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to his decision to move two battalions deployed
on the Indo-Pak western front to the site of battle
in the north. The report, sources said, recounts
how Singh kept writing to Army Headquarters to
seek approval to move troops from the Pakistanborder but received no response.
Finally, he took the initiative and moved the
battalions on his own to Chushul. This has been
highlighted by Brooks-Bhagat as a rare example of
better military leadership.
To an extent, the report also clarifies the
famously known orders from the government
asking the Army to throw out the Chinese by
also putting on record the second line at a time
and place of Armys choosing . The report, how-
ever, does not get into the events of previous
months leading up to the conflict, especially
aspects like the much criticised forward policy
that led to creation of several frontline postswithout the logistics to sustain them an act
deemed provocative by the Chinese.
Besides these details, the report reflects the
pain over the loss of thousands of soldiers; and
ends on a very sombre note, quoting a few lines
from a poem by First World War soldier-poet Wil-
fred Owen lines which no one is able to recall.
Published on Oct 14, 2012
Ops in North werebetter than East
The operative portion of the report is less
than 150 pages. It concludes with lines from
World War I English soldier-poet Wilfred
Owen.
The report says levels of stores and
equipment did not constitute a significant
handicap. Poor military leadership was the
main cause for the debacle.
The campaign in the north under Western
Command was better conducted than
operations in the east.
4 Infantry Division retreated without putting
up a fight. Maj Gen A S Pathania wanted a
second chance to fight as a sepoy after
withdrawing his division in panic.
4 Corps Commander Lt Gen B M Kaul
criticised for his poor command.
Western Army Commander Lt Gen Daulet
Singh praised for showing better initiative.
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WAS Chinese Defence Minister Liang
Guanglies India visit part of an orches-
trated diplomatic effort? So it would
seem if one were to consider that in the past two
weeks, Beijing has dispatched three military dele-
gations in different directions first one led byPLA Deputy Chief of General Staff Cai Yingting to
the US, another by Deputy Chief Ma Xiaotian to
Vietnam and thirdly the Defence Minister himself
to India, Sri Lanka and Laos.
This vigorous bout of typical Chinese military
diplomacy comes in the backdrop of Beijings ten-
sions with its eastern neighbourhood and an
intense domestic political makeover, all so intrin-
sically linked and feeding off each other that
decoding the real message is a challenge in itself.
Take Indias case for at least four years, the
Indian side has been pursuing the little matter of a
reciprocal visit by the Chinese Defence Minister
after Pranab Mukherjee travelled there in 2006.
No response. The little matter then became a sub-
ject of interest, raising doubts in New Delhi, and
finally turned into a full-blown bilateral issue after
China insisted on a stapled visa for the Northern
Army commander. The military relationship washeaded south as India put all interactions on hold.
But today, in matter of a year or so, all are toast-
ing a new chapter in India-China military rela-
tions. Beijing has fluctuated, at times swung from
one extreme to the other, enforcing that theres
more than what meets the eye.
China has Japan terribly worried over the
Senkaku Islands, it has South East Asia in panicover its claims in the South China Sea. Its seen as
having driven a wedge through the tensile ASEAN
fabric, so much so that for the first time in its oth-
erwise reputable history of consensus, the group-
ing could not stitch up a joint declaration at its
summit meet.
India is the one neighbour to the south with
which, despite the range of inflammable sub-
stances in the bilateral basket, Chinas tensions are
still relatively low. China has taken a call to keep it
that way. The disputed border is still a tranquil
line.
In the case of Cai and Ma, it was a question for
China of managing divergences while reinforcing
the hard message that an already unstable equi-
librium can be further disturbed. Liangs visit to
India, on the other hand, underlined a conver-
gence of views, a mutual interest in strengthening
the status quo.
Published on September 12, 2012
Chinas diplomatic offensive
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RAW Beijing chiefdismissed for impropriety
THE Beijing station chief of RAW, the coun-
trys premier external intelligence agency,
has been summarily dismissed on grounds
of alleged operational impropriety.
Amreet Ahluwalia, a joint secretary-level offi-cer, was recently called to Delhi for routine con-
sultations and then swiftly served the dismissal
order under relevant sections of Article 311 (2),
which allows such action without an inquiry for
purposes of national security. He will receive no
pension or post-retirement benefits.
The last time RAW (Research & Analysis Wing)
invoked this article was to dismiss Rabinder
Singh, a JS-level official who had defected to the
United States from the agency. He had been under
surveillance for spying for foreign countries.
While unwilling to part with details in
Ahluwalias case, RAW maintained that charges
against Ahluwalia were serious and related to
impropriety in conduct of operations. Sources
said the nature of the dismissal itself indicates
the seriousness of the charge.
While he could not be contacted, the sketchy
details so far indicate that the Beijing stationchief had developed serious differences with
the headquarters over operational issues dur-
ing his posting.
At one stage, Ahluwalia is alleged to have
threatened to send letters to the political leader-
ship as well as the Opposition, listing his objec-
tions. He is believed to have shared the drafts ofthese purported letters with his official hierar-
chy, leading to further discord.
The fact that a senior officer like Ahluwalia
was considering putting out operational details
perhaps served as a provocation. Insiders say he
had similar problems during his earlier assign-
ment in the US, sometime during 2004-07. At
that time too, he had run-ins with the agency on
certain sensitive issues. However, these were
eventually brushed aside as he completed his
term.
Given his profile and postings the US and
China being his last two foreign assignments
Ahluwalia was clearly among the upcoming offi-
cers in the agency. After his US posting, he had
done a stint in Delhi and was later sent to an
important outpost in Jammu and Kashmir upon
his promotion as joint secretary. Soon after, he
was posted as station chief in Beijing.
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DRAWING India into the South China Sea
muddle, China has put up a Vietnamese
petroleum block under exploration by an
Indian oil firm for global bidding.
While the move was meant to counter a Hanoi
legislation asserting the countrys control over off-
shore areas and islands, which Beijing considers
disputed, it has put Delhi in a spot as Vietnam is
now keen that India does not vacate this block.
As a result, New Delhi for the first time went
beyond its usual call for freedom of navigation in
South China Sea at last weeks ASEAN Regional
Forum meet in Cambodia and added the demand
for access to resources in accordance with princi-
ples of international law. This shift in stand,
sources said, was largely provoked by the Chinese
decision to bid out a block already given to India.
The block numbered 128, which has been con-
tracted to ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL), was part of thenine petroleum blocks that were placed for global
bidding by China Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)
last month. Over the past few weeks, the blocks put
up for bidding were compared to existing blocks
already given out by Vietnam in the same area.
The results, which have now also been confirmed
by reputed energy-specific publication Platts, show
that a substantive part of block 128 is also covered
by the grid of blocks put up for offer by CNOOC.
Vietnam had reacted sharply stating that all
these blocks fall in its Exclusive Economic Zone and
are in accordance with the United Nations Conven-
tion on the Law of Sea (UNCLOS).
Incidentally, OVL had decided to exit this block a
couple of months ago because it had failed to start
drilling activity as per the timeline worked out in
the original contract. On its part, OVL maintained
that its surveys had not shown much promise for
any big finds.The preference, at that time, was to wait a little
longer as timeframe is crucial in petroleum explo-
ration. But as that would be against the contract, the
company had decided to exit without much delay.
OVL had earlier returned the adjoining block 127 on
the same grounds.
Soon after, sources said, Petrovietnam had
approached OVL with fresh terms and conditions,
which allowed OVL two more years for exploration.
The offer, which is still under discussions, is said to
be attractive and OVL is said to be inclined to extend
its exploration activity in block 128.
New Delhi has a crucial decision ahead seeking to
achieve a diplomatic position on the issue. Chinese
assertiveness and clout, sources said, was visible at
the ASEAN and ARF meets in Phnom Penh last
week.
For the first time, ASEAN could not come out
with a joint communique because the member
countries failed to reconcile on the mention of Chi-
nese claims in South China Sea. China is learnt tohave leaned heavily on Cambodia, the host and
chair of the meet this year, to take the line that these
were bilateral issues of individual countries which
should not be part of multilateral discussions.
In the ARF too, which comprises partner coun-
tries of the ASEAN like India, US, China and Euro-
pean Union among others, Pakistan went along
with China and said these were historical claims
that ought to be decided bilaterally and not be sub-
jugated to the international law of sea. The western
countries contested this, leading to wider disagree-
ments.
India, which usually takes a nuanced line, was
slightly more vocal this time: We have been fol-
lowing developments in respect to the South China
Sea. As we had stated earlier, India supports free-
dom of navigation and access to resources in accor-
dance with principles of international law. These
principles should be respected by all.
Published on July 17, 2012
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THE second phase of the governments ambi-
tious military expansion plan worth Rs
65,000 crore has run into rough weather.
The finance ministry has red-flagged the plan with
detailed queries and sent it back to the defence
ministry with a bizarre question: will the Chinese
threat last more than two years?
While responses have been prepared explaining
the impossibility of ascribing a time period to the
threat or even speculating on what the situation
will be two years from now, sources said, the polit-
ical understanding is that the finance ministry is
probably not keen to clear such a high-cost plan
this financial year.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had given in-
principle clearance last year to a five-year expan-
sion plan, which involves fresh accretion of 89,000
troops with 400 officers one of Indias biggest
one-time military expansion efforts.The plan includes setting up a new strike corps
in Panagarh, West Bengal, along with two more
divisions. An independent armoured brigade
along with an artillery division will be part of the
set-up. These plans were fast tracked after the
Army conveyed to the PM that according to avail-
able intelligence, China has been rehearsing mili-
tary action during a limited local offensive.
It was in this context that the proposal for a new
mountain strike corps, pending for over a year
with the defence ministry, suddenly acquired
momentum with the PMO promptly clearing it.
Sources said the finance ministry has also
blocked the second stage of expansion of Indias
first Navy-only bases, INS Kadamba in Karwar
along the Karnataka coast. This Rs 13,000-crore
plan involves creating more than a dozen piers and
more berths which will host, among other ships,
Indias next aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya, bet-
ter known as Admiral Gorshkov, which is now
being refurbished in Russia.
Published on January 11, 2012
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Will China threat last 2 yrs?FinMin stalls military expansion
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THE surprise deferment of India-Chinaboundary talks at the eleventh hour was
not a desirable outcome for India. This was
just not the time to add an acrimonious episode
to an already sensitive relationship. This conver-
sation was going to be the last round under the
current Chinese political leadership and also for
Dai Bingguo, Chinas designated special repre-
sentative (SR) for the past eight years since this
mechanism was set up.
Both sides had agreed to end the year on a pos-
itive note way back in April when Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh and Chinese Premier Wen
Jiabao ironed out differences to reset the defence
relationship in Sanya on the margins of the BRICS
(Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa)
summit. They had also decided to set up a new
boundary mechanism to keep New Delhi and Bei-
jing in direct touch on incidents occurring on the
Line of Actual Control. It was felt that this mecha-nism could also explore cooperative ventures in
border areas once it settled down.
Even more undesirable was the second out-
come a controversial backdrop to an ambitious
second track effort of organising a Global Bud-
dhist Congregation. It was ambitious because, for
the first time, all major countries with significant
Buddhist populations were being brought on a
common platform to create a united body. This
accounted for most of Chinas neighbours.
The congregation brought them to share the
stage with the Dalai Lama, who had only a couple
of months ago irked Beijing by stating that his
reincarnation can manifest by emanation. Essen-
tially, he affirmed that he can appoint his succes-
sor in his lifetime. The meet was also happening
at a time when there were reports of heightened
protests and immolations in Tibet.
If the SR-level talks and the agreement on anew boundary mechanism were another impor-
tant baby step towards involving China in a net-
work of engagement processes, the congregationwas a mindset leap to leverage Indias Buddhist
cultural appeal by taking the lead in uniting dif-
ferent strands of Buddhism. It was exactly the
type of exercise that China would resent, but not
the kind it could object to because of its religious
nature until, of course, someone failed to
notice that the dates of the conference coincided
with the boundary talks.
This was an expensive mistake. The overlap
gave Beijing an opportunity to object to the con-
ference, emphasise on its political overtones by
highlighting the Dalai Lamas involvement and
then forcing India to lower the profile of the
event by getting its political and official class to
stay away from the congregation. And finally,
China did not budge an inch from its stand, leav-
ing India with no option but to call off the bound-
ary talks.
India lost on both counts. On the one hand, thedelicate, carefully calibrated and always evolving
engagement strategy suffered a needless setback,
while on the other, a rare attempt to leverage
Indias soft power in Chinas sensitive underbelly
stood exposed and almost neutralised.
To make matters worse, an amateurish
behind-the-scenes effort to paint China in a poor
light through the media provided Beijing with
the opportunity to make its first on-the-record
objection to the Dalai Lamas scheduled address
at the Buddhist congregation. While other official
channels are now working overtime to limit the
damage, this entire episode does call for some
serious reflection.
Yes, a positive outcome to the boundary talks
would have suited China because it would stand
in contrast to the chorus of concern against Chi-
nese aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea
and East Asia; but it would also have served
Indias interest. With a lot of ground to cover,
India needs time long quiet spells so that it
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can prepare and strengthen its capabilities to
enable a more equal conversation with China.
Until then, it has to manage a very delicate
engagement process that aims to convey a pic-
ture of trust-building and political maturitybetween two emerging powers. A successful
round of SR-talks would have helped cement the
projection that the LAC can be sustained as one of
the most peaceful unsettled borders in the world.
India also needs to understand that there is
nothing new any longer about Beijings excessive
sensitivity towards the Dalai Lama and the Tibet
issue, or for that matter his religious importance
in the Buddhist world. After all, that is the crux of
all international normative criticism against Bei-
jing persecution of religious minorities, partic-
ularly Buddhists in Tibet.
In other words, New Delhi needs to change its
approach and deny Beijing, as far as possible, the
opportunity to target the Dalai Lama. India
enjoys a certain diplomatic advantage in the
Tibet issue, but it still cannot afford to overstate
it. More so, there is not much to achieve through
direct confrontation on this issue.
While India gradually builds on its capacitiesto compete with China, it is imperative for those
running the China policy to function with greater
purpose and coordination. The cancellation of
the boundary talks was an avoidable diplomatic
incident even though South Block wants to por-
tray it as a shining example of Indian assertion
against Chinas unacceptable demands.
Dealing, managing and engaging with China is
the most important strategic question for New
Delhi today and, therefore, the margin of error
has to be minimal. In sum, the time has come to
inject more maturity at all levels on China so that
such conflicts can be better anticipated in future.
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Talks glitch: dates mix-up, quietmoves that China got wind of
THE India-China boundary talks were called
off after Beijing asked New Delhi to defer a
Buddhist congregation where the Dalai
Lama was to deliver the valedictory address next
Wednesday. This, sources said, was also provoked
by a covert Indian effort to get Buddhist delegates
from China to attend this meet.
The narrative, however, is a bit more complicat-
ed. It started with a clash of dates that no one on
the Indian side seemed to have noticed, and ended
with the sudden calling-off yesterday of a sched-
uled two-day conversation between Indian and
Chinese special representatives (SRs) on the
boundary question.
The talks were known to have been scheduled
for November 28-29, though no dates were for-
mally announced. These dates overlapped with
the November 27-30 Global Buddhist Congrega-
tion, organised by the Delhi-based Asoka Missionto commemorate 2,600 years of The Buddhas
enlightenment. The four-day event is scheduled to
be inaugurated at The Ashok hotel in Delhi.
While the Asoka Mission is a well known entity,
the congregation also enjoyed tacit government
support with diplomats and intelligence offi-
cials involved in its planning, it is reliably learnt.
The idea was to turn the congregation into a
major symbolic event, bringing three strands of
Buddhism Theravada, Bodhisattvayana and
Vajrayana together for the first time, and getting
them to come out with a common declaration on
religious issues, and a common Buddhist response
to politics, society, conflict and violence. The aim
was to announce the creation of a unified Buddhist
body at the end of the conference.
Uniting the three strands would in effect mean
bringing prominent Buddhists from a range of
countries like India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Malaysia,Mongolia, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Bhutan,
Laos and Cambodia on a common platform. It was
also decided to reach out to Buddhists in China
and the Asoka Mission sent out invitations to 35
Chinese delegates. Their participation was not
confirmed, but the understanding was that visas
would be granted to them on production of the
invitation letter.
The organisers are bearing the travel, stay and
related expenses for all 500 delegates. Some 300
observers too have been invited.
Where India miscalculated, it seems, was in
assuming that all of this could be achieved with-
out the Chinese government coming to know of
this quiet effort. As it happened, not only did this
ring alarm bells in the Chinese system, but it also
suddenly brought the event under Beijings gaze.
The first aspect to strike Beijing were the
dates, which coincided with the SR-level talks on
November 28-29. Second, the Dalai Lama was to
deliver the valedictory address. Third, the organ-isers had claimed that the Indian President
would inaugurate the congregation, and that the
Prime Minister too may be present. Fourth, it
would bring together Buddhist delegates from
Chinas neighbouring countries, put them on a
common platform with the Dalai Lama, and get
them all to plant saplings in a show of solidarity
along with a common declaration.
All of this was too much for Beijing to digest. It
made its first demand about 10 days back, asking
India to keep the Dalai Lama out of this confer-
ence. New Delhi responded that the government
had nothing to do with a private enterprise.
Beijing pointed to claims by the organisers that
the President and the PM may be present.
By now, South Block was worried. So, after
internal consultations, the Chinese were assured
that President and the Prime Minister would not
be there. Initial plans to have the Dalai Lama at
the inaugural dinner were scrapped. India also
assured China that no Indian leader would share
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the platform with the Dalai Lama.
In consequence, the Dalai Lama was to reach
Delhi on November 29, but attend no public
function on that day. In trying to somehow sal-
vage the situation, the Indian side pointed outthat any public utterance by the Dalai Lama
would come after the boundary talks had con-
cluded. The government also assured adequate
security arrangements in case the Chinese side
feared protests.
At this point, China raised the stakes and said
it would agree to nothing less than the congrega-
tion being called off. It was clear that the Dalai
Lama was not the principal reason for the Chi-
nese obduracy. With ministers and officials of
nearly half a dozen countries having already
confirmed participation for the congregation,
and given the scale and purpose of the event,
New Delhi just could not concede to Beijing.It is reliably learnt that there was considerable
consternation in South Block over why this
scheduling overlap could not be avoided. But in
the end, it was decided to take the line that a
democratic government cannot influence the
date and timing of such private events. On this
note, India called off the talks.
Published on November 27, 2011
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China now rehearses captureof Tibet passes
AYEAR after conducting its first live military
exercise in Tibet, China has for the first
time rehearsed capture of mountain passes
at heights beyond 5,000 metres with the help of
armoured vehicles and airborne troops.
The Chinese Defence Ministry makes this claim
in a short official report that describes the exercise
as the first joint actual-troop drill of the PLA air
and ground troops under information-based con-
ditions in frigid area with a high altitude. The
joint drill involved the Chinese Air Force, ground
troops, armoured columns and a range of support
entities.
Unusually for China, the report carried a
detailed description of the exercise. At the very
beginning... the new type warplanes of the PLA Air
Force conducted accurate strikes at the targets....
Shortly after seizing the commanding point,
the long-range guns launched full-scale shoot-ing at the command post and the artillery position
of the enemy.
This was followed by the armoured vehicle
group and infantry combat vehicles branching out
into columns and launching a sudden and violent
attack on the mountain passes occupied by the
enemy. The special operation detachment out-
flanked the enemy and raided the enemys com-
mand post. Army aviation troops and anti-aircraft
missiles, the report stated, provided cover.
Subsequently, the PLA report claims, after
reaching a mountain pass at a height over 5,000
metres, the armoured vehicle group and the
infantry combat vehicles broke through the inter-
diction barrage of the enemy in succession.
In a simultaneous effort, another mountain pass
at a height of more than 5,000 metres but located
hundreds of kilometres away was taken over.
Conducting military operations on plateau
with an elevation of more than 4,500 meters is an
extreme challenge, the report said.
Published on November 20, 2011
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China flexing muscles, govt clearsBrahmos for Arunachal
PRESSING ahead with the second phase of
military expansion along the China front,the government has given the go-ahead to
deployment of Brahmos cruise missiles in
Arunachal Pradesh. This will be Indias first offen-
sive tactical missile deployment against China,
sources said.
The three Brahmos missile regiments raised so
far have been deployed in the western sector to
counter the Pakistan threat. This will be the fourth
regiment.
With a range of 290 km, these cruise missiles
are being deployed to improve Indias military
reach into the Tibet Autonomous Region and
counter Chinas elaborate missile deployment
along the Sino-Indian border.
This, sources said, dovetails with Indias second
expansion plan but is being fast-tracked because
of urgency shown by the armed forces.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has also
cleared the five-year expansion plan for which hehad given the green signal earlier. The plan
involves fresh accretion of 89,000 troops, with 400
officers.
This is estimated to cost over Rs 65,000 crore,making it one of Indias biggest one-time military
expansion effort. The proposal is now with the
Finance Ministry, and will be put up before the
Cabinet Committee on Security.
Linked to this, the CCS has decided to focus on
security of Indian islands with the larger view of
securing maritime routes criss-crossing the Indian
Ocean.
Two Army brigades are also being lined up for
the Andamans while a battalion-strength pres-
ence is being considered for Lakshadweep along-
side the Navy. Air Force assets are also being
increased in these island territories, the sources
said.
The second Army expansion on the China bor-
der will include setting up a corps headquarter in
Panagarh, West Bengal, along with two more divi-
sions. An independent armoured brigade along
with an artillery division will be part of the set-up.
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Delhis hotline to Beijing waits forroom in PMO, tech upgrade to
match the Chinese
MORE than two years after it was agreed
upon at the highest level, India and Chi-
na have not been able to establish a hot-
line at the Prime Ministers level because the Indi-
an side is yet to come up with suitable encryption
technology. The Chinese side has not only finished
preparations but has also delivered its decryption
equipment here to be installed at the Prime Minis-
ters Office. The uninstalled Chinese equipmenthas been lying idle for at least three months now,
also because the PMO has still not designated a
location for the hotline.
The decision on setting up a hotline was taken
in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg at a meeting
between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and
Chinese President Hu Jintao on the margins of the
2009 BRIC summit. At that time, the idea was to
set it up within a month. But technical negotia-
tions carried on and a formal pact was signed by
the two Foreign Ministers last April.
There will be two hotlines one set up by India
and the other by China. If New Delhi were to initi-
ate a call, the Indian hotline would be used and if
Beijing were to make the call, the Chinese line
would be operational. Both sides were to use their
own encryption and decryption technology to
secure their respective lines.
China, which has such hotlines with other coun-tries, was quick off the block and set up its line
within months after the formal agreement. Neces-
sary equipment, including those required for
encryption, were installed at the Beijing-end and
the decryption equipment was brought to Delhi.
Chinese engineers have handed it over with all
necessary instructions to their Indian counterparts.
While all went smoothly on the Chinese side,
India realised it would need a qualitatively higher
grade encryption-decryption technology for a hot-
line with Beijing. Until now, sources said, the onlyhotline at the PM-level is with Russia and the tech-
nology used is a decade-old and outdated.
So, a call was taken to develop indigenous tech-
nology and the task was given to the Defence
Research Development Organisation. A few weeks
ago, sources said, the DRDO conveyed that it has
come up with some equipment and is ready to
offer it for inspection and trial.
While this delay has carried on, the PMO is yet
to allot a room for the hotline to be installed. This
flows from a decision that the China hotline will be
put up in a separate room and not in the PMs
office. A room, sources said, was designated but as
matters dragged, the room was taken away and
allotted for some other purpose.
The committee, which was set up to opera-
tionalise this hotline, finally asked the PMO last
month to find a place for the hotline so that at least
the Chinese line could be made operational.
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India-China border: Joint
mechanism on cardsIn a far reaching move aimed at increasing trust
along the disputed India-China boundary, the Cab-
inet Committee on Security (CCS) has given its go
ahead to set up a new joint mechanism on bound-
ary consultations with China. With all relevant
ministries on board, formal negotiations will now
begin with Beijing to sew up an agreement.
From what has been approved by the CCS
recently, the joint mechanism will have members
from different ministries such as Defence and
Home, besides representatives of intelligence
agencies and the military. It will be headed by
Joint Secretary in-charge of East Asia in the Min-
istry of External Affairs, who will be in touch on
real-time basis with his Chinese counterpart.
Interestingly, the Chinese side is learnt to have
indicated that instead of the South Asia division,the Director General in-charge of the recently cre-
ated department of boundary affairs in their Min-
istry of Foreign Affairs will head the mechanism
from their end. A lot of the issues emerging out of
different perceptions of the LAC will now be dealt
through this mechanism.
To this end, the final agreement will go into
specifics of how this mechanism will function on a
routine basis, its definition and scope in terms tak-
ing spot decisions.
India and China had reached an in-principle
understanding during Prime Minister Manmohan
Singhs visit to Sanya in April for setting up such a
group. However, both sides had to work out the
details internally before starting negotiations. The
idea was first mooted by Chinese Premier Wen
Jiabao when he visit India last December.
Unlike previous efforts, sources said, this mech-
anism will look to frame an agenda beyond justthe maintenance of peace and tranquility along
the LAC, which was the objective of earlier agree-
ments in 1993 and then the one in 1996 on confi-
dence building measures in the military field. This
group will look at ways to ensure that differences
over the boundary do not become an obstacle to
practical cooperation. However, sources clarified,
it will build on existing structures of border inter-
action and not replace them.
While giving clearance for setting up such a
mechanism, the CCS was informed that the group
will be the first of its kind to ensure immediate
contact between Delhi and Beijing in case of a
transgression or intrusion like incident on the
boundary before the event can create any local
provocation.
Though there are mechanisms in place for local
commanders to speak and resolve matters, both
sides were of the view that a Delhi-Beijing connectwas important to ensure tempers dont flare up.
One of the reasons why China moved the idea,
sources said, was the worry in Beijing over the
negative publicity in India over incidents along the
boundary.
But India feels that this should be one part of
the groups remit. The new mechanism is expected
to focus significant energy on ways to improve the
border environment by promoting, religious
excursions, opening more passes for movement of
people and reducing the general stress associated
with the India-China boundary.
At present, sources explained, there is very little
in terms of border interaction between popula-
tions on both sides. And with growing military
deployment, the atmosphere is more tense and,
hence, potentially volatile. The effort is to have this
mechanism come up with practical, yet innovative
ideas of border cooperation.
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India hits China wallin anti-terror talks
INDIAS first conversation in three years with
China on counter-terrorism recently failed to
make much headway despite New Delhi pro-
viding Beijing fresh findings and evidence.
Not only did China bluntly refuse to re-examine
its objection in the UN to proscribing the Jaish-e-
Mohammeds Maulana Masood Azhar and two
prominent Lashkar-e-Toiba faces, but also firmly
rejected looking into details of Chinese arms sup-
pliers provided by Anthony Shimray of the NSCN
(IM).
The counter-terrorism dialogue in Beijing this
July, the first such talks after 26/11, was an attempt
at reviving this old bilateral mechanism after three
years. However, sources said, there was noprogress on substantive issues.
The US has been unsuccessfully prodding China,
a permanent member of the United Nations Secu-
rity Council, to allow the UN to put Azhar along
with Lashkar operatives Azam Cheema and Abdul
Rehman Makki under the al-Qaeda and Taliban
sanctions list. India had hoped for a change in the
Chinese attitude if it discussed the matter at a
more discreet bilateral setting.
According to reliable sources, while the Indian
side presented detailed information on each of the
three terror figures, all Pakistan-based, Chinese
officials insisted the information was still insuffi-
cient.
Interestingly, the Chinese interlocutors con-
veyed that Beijing was not contesting the terror-
related evidence provided by Delhi, but that infor-
mation connecting the three to al-Qaeda or
Taliban was not enough.The Chinese side argued that this was a techni-
cal requirement under the relevant UN resolu-
tions. A frustrated Indian delegation then
promised to revert with more information in due
course. Since then, instructions have gone out to
security agencies to obtain evidence of the kind
sought by China.
If this marked a poor beginning to the talks,
sources said, the discussion on Northeast insur-
gent groups and their alleged Chinese links was
almost a non-starter. The Indian side passed on
information provided by Shimray in his state-
ments before the court that the NSCN (IM) had
arranged arms and ammunition worth nearly $2
million from TCL, a subsidiary of Chinese arms
company China Xinshidai. However, even names
of individuals, the agents in Bangkok and othersuch details did not seem to impress the Chinese
side.
The Chinese interlocutors are believed to have
told their Indian counterparts that they could not
act on a mere confessional statement regard-
less of whether it had been admitted in a court of
law. Sources added that they latter reverted saying
the information could not be corroborated.
The only issue which the Chinese side raised
was the strong possibility of the Tibetan move-
ment turning violent in the near future and they
wanted India to take extra measures for security of
Chinese assets. The Indian side gave details of the
government going the extra mile to ensure the
same.
India gave a detailed briefing on Pakistans role
in acts of terror on Indian soil. The Chinese side
was particularly interested in knowing the evi-
dence gathered in the 26/11 attacks.
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CHINA is learnt to have questioned Indias
membership proposal before the NuclearSuppliers Group (NSG) on grounds that an
exception should not be made for just one country.
In a clear attempt to build a case for Pakistan too,
China has told the 46-member grouping that all
potential candidates must be considered for mem-
bership.
According to details that have emerged from the
June 23-24 meeting of the NSG at Noordwijk in the
Netherlands, there was fair amount of concern
expressed by many members over considering
Indias membership given that it is not a signatory
to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Some countries
also urged the US and other countries like France
and UK, which were backing Indias case, to
reassess the impact this may have on the non-pro-
liferation regime.
However, it was China that took a totally differ-
ent line and asked for rules of membership to be
framed for all potential candidates than make anexception for India. Pakistan and Israel are the only
remaining two nuclear-enabled countries that
have not signed the NPT and clearly, sources said,
the Chinese emphasis was aimed at benefitingIslamabad. In the end, such a move would end up
complicating Indias case.
On the other hand, sources pointed out that Bei-
jing has in the past backed a criteria-based
approach within the NSG rather than granting
country-specific exemptions. To that extent, this is
being seen as a somewhat consistent position.
The US had agreed to pilot Indias membership
to the four sensitive technologies export control
regimes including the NSG which has the most
stringent controls. This commitment was con-
firmed through the Indo-US joint statement dur-
ing US President Barack Obamas visit to India.
While the US has circulated a non-paper among
member countries and India too has conducted its
own outreach effort, the roadblocks could be a
quite a few with China making its intention
uncharacteristically clear quite early in the pro-
cess.
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China red flags Indiamove to join NSG
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KEEN on the resumption of high-level mili-
tary exchanges, India and China are dis-
cussing a proposal to have an Indian mili-
tary delegation at the Divisional Commander
level visit China.
New Delhi has, however, made it clear that the
leader of the delegation will be an officer from the
Northern Command. Last July, India had decided
to suspend high-level military exchanges after
Beijing told New Delhi that the Northern Army
Commander, who was leading a delegation of
senior military officials to China, would require a
stapled visa. The reasoning given was that he was
in-charge of an area, Jammu & Kashmir, for whose
residents Beijing does not issue regular visas but
staples them on the passport.
While some breakthrough could come during
Prime Minister Manmohan Singhs visit to China
starting Tuesday, officials are downplaying expec-tations, aware that Beijing will be more focused on
the multilateral event at the resort town of Sanya
the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South
Africa) Summit.
Its learnt that Singh is slated to meet Chinese
President Hu Jintao on Wednesday. They will dis-
cuss the entire range of bilateral issues, particular-
ly the proposed bilateral strategic economic dia-
logue that will be led, on New Delhis side, by
Deputy Chairman of Planning Commission Mon-
tek Singh Ahluwalia.
On high-level defence exchanges, sources
said, both sides have tried to be creative in find-
ing a solution. If the Chinese were to agree to the
proposal, they would have to issue a stamped
visa to the Major General-level officer from
Northern Command. At the same time, India is
not insisting that only the Northern Army com-
mander head the delegation. Its hoped, officials
said, that China may see reason in the fact that
a Divisional Commander is not in charge of the
entire J&K.
The hope here is that if this works out, then
both countries can inch closer to resolving the
stapled visa issue. While China has not issued
stapled visas in the last few months to J&K resi-
dents, sources said, the question in New Delhi is
when will China start issuing stamped visas on a
regular basis.
There have been some instances of proper
visas being given to J&K residents like when a
singer from Jammu had to perform at the closing
ceremony of the Asian Games at Guangzhou. Or
even the four media persons from J&K traveling
with the Prime Minister to cover the BRICS sum-
mit. But sources cautioned against reading too
much into this arguing that Beijing may have
issued proper visas this time since it would notwant this row to cloud its showcase BRICS summit.
Since India suspended military exchanges,
there have been a string of messages from differ-
ent levels in China that such a situation was not
desirable, including from Gen Ma Xiaotian, Deputy
Chief of General Staff in the Chinese PLA. India was
clear that this was linked to the stapled visa issue
and that this had to resolved.
The matter also came up for discussion during
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabaos visit to India last
December and he assured the Indian side that Chi-
na would find a way out on the stapled visa issue.
Of late, Chinese officials too have been positive on
resolving this issue and resuming high-level mili-
tary contact, which has prompted some optimism
in New Delhi. But, as of now, sources said, it is still
not a done deal.
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India, China work on resumingdefence exchanges
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C
HINA is set to extend its Tibet railway net-
work into the strategically important
Chumbi valley area, next to Sikkim and theSiliguri corridor. This was confirmed by a Chinese
Railways Ministry map, put out last month, show-
ing Chinas long term railway network plan.
Until now, these plans were being loosely spec-
ulated upon, but they now have an official stamp
on it. The latest map shows the railway line
extending from Lhasa to Zangmu on the Nepal
border, which is going to eventually extend into
Nepal and even Kathmandu.
According to the plan, another line will branch
out midway from this link to Zangmu, at a place
called Shigatse. This line will move east and go
right up to Yadong, on the mouth of the Chumbi
Valley. This town is connected to Sikkim through
the Nathu La pass and is strategically located on
the tri-junction of India, China and Bhutan.
There are areas near Yadong which are still dis-
puted between China and Bhutan. The area wit-
nessed military conflict in 1962 as part of the Indi-an effort to defend Nathu La.
While construction on the line has not yet start-
ed, sources said, feasibility studies are already
being conducted. This project is slated for comple-
tion by 2017, bringing the Tibet railway just 500km short of the Siliguri corridor. This may raise
demands from Bangladesh to provide connectivity
to the Chinese market via India.
This project must be seen along with the hectic
progress, further east, on a railway line connecting
Kunming in China to Singapore. With the Thailand
government throwing its weight behind the idea,
work on this project is moving at a quick pace. Giv-
en that there already exists a trade route from the
Indian border to Kunming, the understanding is
that pressure will increase on India to link up with
the Chinese railway network.
What is of more concern to India is that the
improved technological ability in this sphere
means Beijing will end up meeting its deadlines. In
the last year, China added over 10,000 km of high
speed railway, and in the past five years has built
70,000 km railway lines. India, on the other hand,
has struggled to connect Bhutan to India by rail.
Published on February 14, 2011
Plans on track, China rail link tostretch to near Sikkim border
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SO FAR, Beijing has denied any plans to build a
dam on its side of the Brahmaputra river. But
strong evidence has now emerged to suggest
that China has begun constructing a dam on the
river which it calls the Yarlungzangbo (better
known as Yarlong Tsangpo to the Tibetans).
Its learnt that the Zangmu hydroelectrical pro-
ject was inaugurated on March 16 this year and
the first concrete was poured on April 2.
The 1.138-billion Yuan (1 Yuan = $0.15) project
has been awarded to a five-company consortium
with China Gezhouba Group along with NIDR
(China Water Northeastern investigation, design
and research) involved in its construction.Involved in its financing is the Huaneng Corpo-
ration, one of Chinas biggest power companies.
From preliminary information available with
India, the Chinese plan to have a series of five
medium-sized dams along the river in the Nan-
shan region of Tibet at Zangmu, Jiacha or Gyatsa,
Zhongda, Jiexu and Langzhen.
Of this, sources said, detailed information so far
is available on the Zangmu dam.
This dam is expected to generate 540 MW; its
height will be 116 m and length 389.5 m, its 19 m
wide at the top and 76 m wide at the bottom.
According to information that is being circulat-
ed by companies involved in the project, the
Zangmu dam is a gravity dam with water-block-
ing structures which could mean construction ofa reservoir.
Some academic articles had set off fears of
China begins building
dam on its side of theBrahmaputra
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hydroelectric projects and water diversion plans
on the Brahmaputra in Tibet about three years ago.
A worried India, as a lower riparian country,
had taken up the matter with China. Beijing had
then assured New Delhi that these were just arti-cles in the press and no concrete decision had
been taken.
The assumption here was that China was only
looking at tributaries of the Brahmaputra but the
Zangmu dam project is well after all tributaries
have joined the river.
The two countries had then agreed to establish
a joint mechanism for sharing technical data on
rivers like the Brahmaputra and Sutlej.
This exchange, however, has been restricted to
flood season data and Indian efforts to widen the
scope of information-sharing have not moved
forward.
China, sources said, never informed India about
its plans or this specific project.
Significantly, according to information
received here, the Nanshan Regional Administra-
tion issued orders as early as October 30, 2007 for
evacuation of people from the area from Novem-
ber 1, 2007.
According to the order, the dam site will include
all areas up to 3310 m above sea level and people
inhabiting these heights were asked to vacate.Earlier this month, the Gezhouba group is said
to have gone public saying it had successfully
completed setting up the concrete feed line.
Satellite images from February show construc-
tion activity in Zangmu and Jiacha with evidence
of labour quarters.
The consequences to India from this project and
the others about which little information is known
can only be ascertained if more information is
shared and teams are allowed to access the site.
Its learnt that the tendering process for this
entire project is being overseen by the Three
Gorges International Corporation.
Along with India, Bangladesh is another coun-
try that would be affected by dams and has often
voiced concerns in this regard.
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BARELY weeks after it failed in its attempt to
block Asian Development Bank (ADB) funds
to a project in Arunachal Pradesh, China has
successfully struck back.
Last month, in a development New Delhi has
been quiet about, China won a vote on a disclo-
sure agreement, which prevents ADB from for-mally acknowledging Arunachal Pradesh as part of
India. (A disclosure agreement is a formal notifica-
tion of a project once its approved by the ADB
Board).
On June 16, India had successfully isolated Chi-
na the entire ADB Board except Beijing had vot-
ed in Indias favour and secured approval for its
$2.9-billion country