Observational Issues for Weather & Climate Services
Dr. Marie ColtonDirector
Office of Research and Applications12 Nov 02
Environmental Services for the 21st Century
Supporting Programs
Summaryand Future Directions
Sustaining capabilities & servicesEl Niño Anomalies: 1997 - 1998
Topex/Poseidon POES
Fundamental components of operational, environmental services
for 21st Century
RequirementsRobust Observations
Attributes of Environmental ServicesUser-Inspired R&D Performance
Measures
Synthesizing User RequirementsEX: Sea Surface Temperature Requirements
•GODAE“GODAE requires global high resolution sea surface temperature in near real-time for assimilation into ocean models. Remote sensing missions planned in the near future broadly meet GODAE needs in term of sampling and accuracy, though they are marginal for some climate applications and for global high resolution problems”
•OceanOBS99“For remote sensing, continuity of the higher accuracy ATSR-class measurements needs to be addressed and further research is needed on the assimilation and use of geostationary data for improved temporal resolution and microwave measurements for better spatial coverage. “
•IGOS Ocean Theme“Continuation of the geostationary, and low-earth-orbit meteorological satellites that produce merged sea-surface temperature data products. A second issue is to consider how to transform ATSR-class instruments to operational systems.”
Ocean Observer User Requirements Document, Feb, 2000
(updating NPOESS IORD-II)
Systems Capabilities Thresholds Objectives a. Horizontal Cell Size Nadir, clear Worst case, clear
1 km 1.3 km
0.25km
b. Mapping Accuracy Nadir, clear Worst case, clear
0 km 1.3 km
0.1 km
c. Measurement Range -2o to 40o C -2 to 40 C d. Measurement Precision 0.2o C 0.1 C e. Measurement Uncertainty 0.5 C 0.1 C f. Refresh 6 hours 3 hours g. Long-Term Stability 0.1 C - h. Latency 90 minutes 15 minutes i. Geographic Coverage Global Ocean Global Ocean
j. . Orbit Constraints Sun Sync Polar Sun Sync. Polar
Justification: Sea Surface Temperature (SST) (DOC/DoD): (USAF) The requirements for the stated thresholds are documented in AWS Report.
(USN) Navy Requirements Review concluded sea surface temperature details (i.e., frontal analysis) can be taken into proper consideration only by emerging high-resolution models using a polar-orbiting weather satellite. Horizontal resolutions of 4 km (global) and 1 km (regional) and a measurement accuracy of 0.5o C specify the resolution and accuracy needed. In addition, these resolution and accuracy requirements are needed to bound detection and accuracy parameters for emerging shallow water antisubmarine warfare systems.
(DOC) A regional resolution of at least 3 km at nadir (global resolution) and 1 km (0.25 km Objective) (regional resolution) is required to support coastal management missions within DOC, as described by NOAA Requirements for Support from Polar Orbiting Satellites, NOAA, DOC, June 1990, and in NOAA-DOD-NASA Triagency Polar Requirements Summary, NOAA, 1993. In order to be able to discern thermal details in bays and estuaries for analyses of coastal dynamics, human health, ecosystem sustainability, and resource management, this high-resolution capability is key.
Accommodating Change MULTIPLATFORM SST
Combine to obtain the optimal SST analysis
POES IR has high spatial resolutionGOES IR has high temporal resolutionMicrowave has all-weather capabilityBuoys, ships for in-situ observations
Quality Matters
Long-Term Calibration/Validation and Inter-Sensor and In-Situ Comparisons
Satellite-Buoy Matchup StatisticsGlobal Nighttime SST
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Year of Comparison
Glo
bal B
ias
and
Scat
ter (
Deg
. C)
Bias Scatter
In orbit Approved Planned/pending approval
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
04/2001
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (IR MEASUREMENTS)
VIIRS/NPOESS C2/C1
MODIS/EOS-TERRA
MODIS/EOS-AQUA
VIIRS/NPP
AATSR/ENVISAT
AVHRR/NOAA
AVHRR/EPSAVHRR/NOAAERS-2
GLI/ADEOS-2SGLI/GCOM-B1 GCOM-B2
* Important additional/regional contributions from geostationary systems equipped with split window IR channels (GOES, MSG, INSAT-3D, FY2 C/D/E, MTSAT) not represented.
VIIRS/NPOES-C1/2
FY-1 C F1 D (MVISR) FY-3 (VIRR/MODI)
VIIRS/NPOES-C3Early morning orbit
Morning orbit
Afternoon orbit
Technology InsertionContinuous, but Evolving Instruments
System DesignAttributes of operational, environmental
services for a New Century
• The Basic Framework drawn from meteorological analogue– Real-time remotely sensed and in-
situ data– Assimilating numerical models– Quality control of observational
data sets and models– Real-time dissemination of
information products– User feedback mechanisms– Archival of observations and model
output– Highly educated workforce– Diverse basic and applied research
enterprise– Support by a scientific and
professional society
• But adapted for 2000+• …in an Internet world…
– Shortened development cycles– Experimental, distributed platforms– Innovation insertions
• …with immediate societal applications– GIS– Economic benefits– Education and Community building
• …with long-term continuity for monitoring and stewardship commitments
• …with performance measures applied to R&D, technology, operations, and user segments
• …and commercial opportunity
Excerpted from “Recognizing the Competing Values of R&D Organizations,”G. Jordan, Sandia National Laboratories
Small, Flexible, Diverse Science
Evolutionary
INTERNAL
Revolutionary
EXTERNAL
Large, Controlled, Convergent Science
MASTER: BE SUSTAINABLE CREATE: BE NEW
IMPROVE: BE BETTER PRODUCE: BE FIRST
Incrementally new ideasDevelop teachable pointsCommunity leadershipGreat Contributors
Radically new ideasA new way to ask or thinkGlobal leadershipUnusual projects
Incrementally new productsStandardized applicationsReliable facilitiesGood Technical ManagementProjects on track
Radically new productsIdentify applicationsRapid DeploymentProjects have high yieldStrategic Partnerships
How well are we doing?
Value-oriented Performance Indicators for User-Inspired Science
Ongoing Programs
Solving the“simultaneous data equations” for Ocean, Weather, and Climate applications
Ocean Remote Sensing Program
Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
Participation in Climate Change Research Initiatives
For Whom are we working? Multiple users
Standalone and Merged Products for Ocean Weather and Climate
SST Anomalies- data fusion Hot Spots: Potential Coral Bleaching
QuikSCAT Winds Sea WIFS Ocean Color
TOPEX Sea Level
ORAD ESTIMATED FY03 Income- $12,818KGIMPAP: $78K
1%
PSDI: $174K1%
ESDIM: $100K1%
Fed Salaries $2,516K20%
NASA: $2,904K22%
ORS: $4,064K 31%
NOS Coral Reefs: $67K1%
NCDC Coral Reefs: $12K0%
OAR Coral Reef Watch: $750K6%
Climate Services (OGP): $245K
2%
NOPP: $973K8%
IPO: $860K7%
ORAD base: $55K0%
CBLAST (ONR): $20K0%
ORS ESTIMATED FY03 Budget Plan - $4,064KOther: $283K
7%
Ocean Surface Winds: $253K
6%
Ocean Color: $271K7%
SAR: $323K8%
Altimetry/ Sea Ice: $43K1%
SST: $302K7%
CISO: $750K18%
External Grants: $422K10%
CoastWatch: $1,417K36%
FY03 Sources of Income and Planned Budget for Ocean Remote Sensing Line
TOTAL FY03 ORAD Planned Obligations: $12,818K
Coral Reefs: $943K FED: $114K A: $30K C: $244K T: $398K
E: $157K
Sea Ice: $180K FED: $180K
MGMT/Reserve/Ed./Outreach/Other:
$554K FED: $216K
A: $338K
CoastWatch: $1,537K FED: $120K C: $628K
T: $549K E: $240K
CISO: $750K A: $750K
SST: $1,067K FED: $413K A: $244K
C: $151K E: $259K
Ocean Color: $3,399K FED: $317K A:$1,201K
C: $391K T: $10 E: $1,480K
Altimetry: $1,490K FED: $829K A: $100K
C: $50K T: $189K E: $322K
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR): $633K
FED: $182K A: 5K C: 148K T: $44K
E: $254K
Ocean Surface Winds: $2,047K
FED: $145K A: $220K C: $293K T: $147K
E: $1,242K
Multi: $218K A: $218K
LEGENDFED = SALARIESC = CONTRACTS
T = TRANSFER TO FED AGENCY
A= ACADEMIAE = EXPENSES
Total $ and PercentFED: $2,516K 20%A: $3,106K 24%C: $1,905K 15%T: $1,337K 10%E: $3,954K 31%
Cutting the Pie to serve the many
Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
The MISSION of the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation is to accelerate the quantitative use of satellite data in weather and climate prediction models for operational and research purposesGOALS of the JCSDA• Accelerate the use of data from the advanced
satellite sensors• Advance data assimilation technology• Standardize the data assimilation infrastructure
for nationwide uses• Accelerate the transition of the advanced data
assimilation scheme into the research and operational forecast models
FIVE YEAR SCIENTIFIC PRIORITIES Improve radiative transfer models Prepare for advanced instruments Advance techniques for assimilating cloud
and precipitation information Improve emissivity models and surface
products Improve use of satellite data in ocean data
assimilation for weather and climate forecast
SPONSORS: NOAA, NASA , NPOESS IPO
PARTNERS: NOAA (NCEP, NESDIS, OAR), NASA GSFC/DAO, Navy N096/ONR, Air Force XOW, NCARPROGRAMMATIC APPROACHDirected Internal Research and InfrastructureExternal Research, Education, Outreach
FUNDING PROFILE
MAJOR FY02 ACCOMPLISHMENTS• Inclusion of cloud liquid water data• Inclusion of GOES-10 IR radiances• Inclusion of TRMM microwave imager precipitation
estimates into NCEP operational system• Inclusion of Quikscat data into NCEP operational
system:• 3-8% improvement in 10m winds vs mid-latitude
deep ocean buoys at 27 to 96h• 7-17% improvements for MSCP
FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06750K 3.3M 3.3M (2.0M) 5.3M 5.3M
NESDISSpace-Based Climate
ObservationsData Records
Climate Monitoring & Assessment
Network Performance Monitoring
Reference Network
NOAA Climate Observations & Services
OARClimate Research
Long-Term Climate Modeling
Monitoring of Atm CompositionOcean Obs
Climate Obs & Services
Sustained ObsAssessments/
PredictionsOutreach
Trans. to Operations
NWSClimate Prediction
Regional/Local ForecastingIn Situ Obs
How do we get there?A Step-wise Approach
• Near term (0-12 mo): – Climate Obs & Svs Program planning– NRC Study on Climate Data Records from Operational Sats– NIST/NASA/NPOESS satellite calibration for measuring global climate
change– Satellite benchmark (CLIMSAT) requirements workshop
• Longer term (12-36 mo): Expand Joint Center activities to include climate applications (eg., ocean data assimilation)
• Intermediate term (6-18mo): Initiate production of high priority CDRs from historical satellite record
Where do we want to go?Generate Climate Data Records (CDRs):
The Basis for all Climate Applications
• A CDR is a time series that accounts for sources of error and noise, producing a a stable, high-quality data record. Creation of CDRs requires in-depth attention to:– Calibration, inter-calibration and characterization of satellite
instruments– Development of processing algorithms– Detection and elimination of artifacts in the data set– Generation of stable climatic time series– Validation of data products– Analysis of data– Reprocessing as needed
• Comment: Ozone is the only CDR that comes close to satisfying these requirements, but provides example of necessary approach
How do we get there?Intermediate term (6-18 mo)
Initiate production of high priority CDRs from historical and current satellite record
• The AVHRR data record (1981 – present) has great potential as a source of CDRs– Sea Surface Temperature– Cloud cover and cloud properties– TOA Radiation budget– Aerosol optical depth– Land surface variables (Vegetation and snowcover)
• Computational resources are now easily affordable. AVHRR 1b data are available from the Satellite Active Archive
• Task is challenging, but low technical risk– Accurate calibration and orbital corrections required– Robust climate-quality algorithms must be developed– Incorporate latest science – Improved clear-sky detection will result in improved and consistent datasets of SST, aerosols
and land variables
GOES Sea Surface Temperature Reprocessing
BENEFITS
• A uniquely powerful dataset for studying both diurnal warming of the ocean surface and the evolution of mesoscale features such as fronts and eddies
• Improved retrieval quality • Derived from recharacterized and recalibrated archive of GOES radiance data
being produced by NCDC• Modeling of the diurnal thermocline• End result will be a consistent climate-quality SST dataset extending back to
1994, which will be made available to the various user communities via the GOES Active Archive being set up by NCDC
• Other derived products can be generated » Cloud cover and cloud properties» TOA Radiation budget» Aerosol optical Depth» Surface Winds
How do we get there?Intermediate term (6-18 mo)
Initiate production of high priority CDRs from historical and current satellite record
How do we get there? Intermediate term (6-18 mo)
Other examples: high priority CDRs from historical and current microwave satellite record
• The operational microwave instruments, MSU, SSMI/S and AMSU, will provide other climatologically important CDRs (essentially the “water component”)– Ocean parameters
• Water vapor, Precipitation• Sea Ice
– Atmosphere• Deep layer mean temperatures• Precipitation• Cloud liquid water
– Surface emissivity
• Low data volumes for microwave instruments make reprocessing easy and affordable
• Microwave CDRs will be blended with data from future instruments, CMIS and ATMS
Summary and Conclusions• Climate and Ocean services are particular forms of emerging “environmental services”
for 21st century that support multiple users and applications
• Sea surface temperature was used as “tracer” for such services. Science, budget, and user priorities will determine which parameters are “operationalized” first. Must address multiplatform measurements, applications, validations, archive and distribution for each observing system
• Operational weather and research satellites can provide the continuity and global coverage needed for monitoring climate variations
• NESDIS is incorporating climate requirements into NOAA satellite programs using environmental service framework
• Climate Reference Network is a very important in-situ component of the total observing system for climate
• NOAA satellite, data and forecast center programs can provide for end-to-end climate monitoring in support of NOAA and national Climate Programs
• Generation of CDR’s requires expertise in observing sensor as well as geophysics. Long-term expertise associated with the existing 25 yrs of satellite data is retiring
• Re-analysis costs for high-priority parameters (SST) are reasonable given today’s computational capability and should be initiated as “CDR Pathfinders”.
BACKUP/Additional Information
Where are we Now? NESDIS Activities in Support of Generating Climate Data Sets From
Satellites • NESDIS has long history of generating climatically useful data sets from its
satellites - mainly as part of real-time operational processing– Snow cover - over 30 years– Outgoing Long Wave Radiation (OLR) - over 25 years– Sea surface temperature - over 20 years– Surface vegetation index - over 20 years– Ozone - over 15 years
• NESDIS works with external community to generate satellite data sets– Archives all satellite observations and makes them available to external
community– Participates in national/international climate projects generating climate
data sets: WCRP’s ISCCP and GPCP, NOAA/NASA Pathfinder Program– Assists external investigator groups: Spencer/Christy-MSU atmospheric
temperature; D.Robinson, snow cover
Problems to be Overcome in Constructing Long-Term Data Sets
• NOAA’s current satellite instruments (except for SBUV ozone) were designed mainly for weather observations
• Climate change signals are small (e.g., 0.2 C/decade)
• Global averages have large variability in space
• Sensors degrade in space
• Orbital drift• Afternoon orbits prior to NOAA-16
• Satellite to satellite discontinuities• No two instruments exactly alike