Environmental pillar of migration: Introduction to the topicCAR
Tamer Afifi
United Nations University Insitute for Environment and Human Security
Bonn
Towards better evidence on migration and
development in Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Capacity-building workshop on migration statistics Almaty, 31. Oct. 2013
Environmental migrants No agreement
1985 UN-Environment Program
(El-Hinnawi):
"……those people who have been forced to leave their traditional habitat,
temporarily or permanently, because of a marked environmental disruption . . . that
jeopardised their existence and/or seriously affected the quality of their
life……."
Environmental migrants No agreement
IOM working definition (2007):
“Environmental migrants are persons or groups of persons who, for compelling
reasons of sudden or progressive change in the environment that adversely affects their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or
choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within
their country or abroad”
Environmental migrants No agreement
Environmentally Motivated Migrants who “may leave” a steadily deteriorating environment to pre-
empt the worst.
Environmentally Forced Migrants who “have to leave” to avoid inevitable and grave consequences
of environmental degradation
Environmental Emergency Migrants who “flee” the worst of an environmental impact to save their
lives.
www.each-for.eu
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Egypt
Turkey
Mozambique
Vietnam
Morocco
Ghana
Senegal
Niger
Dominican Republic, Haiti
Mexico
Ecuador
Argentina
Russia
China
Tuvalu
Bangladesh
Spain
The Balkans
WesternSahara
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Egypt
Turkey
Mozambique
Vietnam
Morocco
Ghana
Senegal
Niger
Dominican Republic, Haiti
Mexico
Ecuador
Argentina
Russia
China
Tuvalu
Bangladesh
Spain
The Balkans
WesternSahara
social
cultural
(Forced) human
displacement
Main outcomes: 1. Food security is a key factor
2. Climatic/environmental problems are often root causes
3. Most of the migration is internal 5. What is national is becoming international migration
6. What is seasonal/temporary is becoming long-term/permanent migration
Gravity model: - The impact of environmental degradation on migration between countries pair wise. - 13 global environmental factors. - Other 13 geographic, economic, political, social, historical and cultural indicators. - 172 countries.
Horn of Africa Study
Horn of Africa Study
Key findings 1. Discernible shifts in weather in the home countries over the past 10–15 years. 2. Severe impacts on farming and livestock husbandry in the homelands of the refugees 3. Weather conditions as a multiplier/magnifier of pre-existing conflicts in countries of origin. 4. Wide range of traditional and innovative adaptation strategies in situ. 5. Human movements were only the last resort. 6. Movements due to pure climatic issues were rather internal and temporary.
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Partners and Donors
With the support of:
and
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Geographic Diversity: 8 Countries
8 case studies
Source: CARE France
Duration: 2011-2013
Fieldwork Summer 2011
- Winter 2012
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Case Study Reports
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OBJECTIVES
1. To understand how rainfall variability, food security and human mobility interact today
2. To understand how these factors might interact in coming decades as the impact of climate change begins to be felt more strongly
Project objectives & scope
3. To work with communities to identify ways to manage rainfall variability, food/livelihood insecurity, and migration.
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Field Research Methodology*
Expert interviews
Participatory Research Approach
Household surveys
Resource map, Tanzania. Source: Afifi, 2012
_______________________________ *See Rademacher-Schulz et al. (2012)
Ranking of coping strategies, Thailand. Source: Sakdapolrak, 2008
Seasonal calendar, Peru. Source: Milan, 2011
Rademacher-Schulz, Christina, Tamer Afifi, Koko Warner, Thérèse Rosenfeld, Andrea Milan, Benjamin Etzold and Patrick Sakdapolrak (2012): “Rainfall variability, food security and human mobility. An approach for generating empirical evidence.” Intersections No. 10. Bonn: UNU-EHS.
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Global Findings based on 8 case studies
Source: Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow, 2012
Resilience to climatic stressors Vulnerability to climatic stressors
Migration improves HH
resilience
Migration used to survive, but not
flourish
Migration erosive coping strategy
Migration not an option: trapped
populations
• Economy: poor • Adaptation options:
access to livelihoods options &assets (social, economic, political),
• Education: Children have 3-5 years more education than parents
• Migrant: early 20s, single; temporal migration
• Remittances: education, livelihood diversification, health
• Economy: chronically food insecure, landless, female -headed HH
• Adaptation options: insufficient assets to adapt locally or through migration
• Education: More HHs have low or no education / skill levels
• Migrant: not feasible • Remittances: none.
Abandoned / trapped populations
• Economy: landless • Adaptation options: few
adaptation options in situ, inability to diversify
• Education: All HH members have low or no education / skill levels
• Migrant: HH Head, mid 40s, migration in hunger season
• Remittances: Partial success in obtaining food or money to buy food
• Economy: land scarce • Adaptation options: less
access to assets & institutions for support
• Education: Children have same education level as parents
• Migrant: HH Head, mid 40s, migration in hunger season
• Remittances: Success in obtaining food or money to buy food
4 household profiles
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Potential future relationships among rainfall variability,
food security and migration (Tanzania)
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-0.50
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1.50
2.00
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Scenario 1(drying)
Scenario 2(wetting)
Scenario 3(extremewetting)
Scenario 4(extremedrying)N
orm
alis
ed d
iffe
ren
ce r
ate
of
vuln
erab
le
mig
rati
on
Source: Dr. Christopher Smith, 2012 UNU-EHS
11/4/2013 21
Conclusions
• General perception of climatic changes in the form of rainfall variability
• Negative impacts on agricultural production (food and livelihood insecurity)
• Migration characteristics
• Migration in response to climatic problems/risks (nature of relationship)
• Household characteristics matter
• Future pressure on rainfall-dependent livelihoods and its impact on human mobility
Warner, Koko, Tamer Afifi, Kevin Henry, Tonya Rawe, Christopher Smith, and Alex De Sherbinin (2012): “Where the Rain Falls: Climate change, food and livelihood security, and migration.” Global Policy Report. Bonn: UNU-EHS.
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Thank you for your attention Contact:
Dr Tamer Afifi Associate Academic Officer UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) Bonn Tel + 49-228-815-0232 [email protected] www.ehs.unu.edu http://wheretherainfalls.org