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BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition
Paul Appleby Head of energy economics
© BP p.l.c. 2017 2017 Energy Outlook
Global energy demand
2
Billion toe
Energy consumption by region Growth in GDP and primary energy
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Other
Africa
Other non-OECD Asia
India
China
OECD
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1965-1975
1975-1985
1985-1995
1995-2005
2005-2015
2015-2025
2025-2035
Energy intensity
GDP
Primary energy
% per annum
© BP p.l.c. 2017 2017 Energy Outlook
Fuel mix
3
Primary energy consumption by fuel Shares of primary energy
*Renewables includes wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, and biofuels
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Renewables*
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
Billion toe
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Oil
Coal
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Renewables*
© BP p.l.c. 2017 2017 Energy Outlook
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
EU China US OECDAsia
India Africa
1995-2015
2015-2035
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
EU
US
World
China
Renewables
4
Renewables as a share of power generation
Shares of renewable power growth
© BP p.l.c. 2017 2017 Energy Outlook 5
• How might electric cars and the broader mobility revolution affect oil demand?
• How might the abundance of oil resources affect the behaviour of low-cost oil producers?
Oil
© BP p.l.c. 2017 2017 Energy Outlook
Oil demand
6
Liquids demand growth
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
Power Buildings
Industry Non-combusted
Transport Total
Mb/d, average annual growth
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Mb/d
Liquids demand
Non-combusted
Industry
Buildings
Ships, trains & planes
Trucks
Cars
Power
Transport
Liquids includes oil, biofuels and derivatives of coal and natural gas
© BP p.l.c. 2017 2017 Energy Outlook
Growth of electric cars
7
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
By region By type By region By type
2015 2035
Electric cars
Conventional cars
Non-OECD
OECD
Billions of vehicles $/kWh
The global car fleet: 2015-2035 Illustrative path for battery pack costs
*For a Battery Electric Vehicle with a 60 kWh pack. Cost projections depend heavily on the degree of EV uptake, which is uncertain, so ranges should be treated as illustrative only. Current estimates of battery costs also vary widely, but this uncertainty is not shown
0
50
100
150
200
250
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Range of estimates of cost parity between
electric and oil-powered
cars
Battery pack costs*
© BP p.l.c. 2017 2017 Energy Outlook
19
23 17
0.2 1.2
23
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2015 Growth indemand for travel
Gains in fuelefficiency
Switching tonatural gas
vehicles
Switching toelectric vehicles
2035
Liquid fuel demand from cars
8
Decomposing changes in liquids demand from cars: 2015-2035
Mb/d
© BP p.l.c. 2017 2017 Energy Outlook 9
Mobility revolution
• Electric cars: lead to a switch away from conventional cars
• Autonomous vehicles: improve fuel efficiency via efficient driving
• Car sharing: can amplify the effects of new-technology cars
• Ride pooling: reduce total miles driven by pooling journeys
© BP p.l.c. 2017 2017 Energy Outlook
Mb/d
Digital revolution: Impact on oil demand in cars in 2035
15
20
25
Electric revolution: Impact on oil demand in cars in 2035
10
Mobility revolution scenarios
Mb/d
15
20
25
© BP p.l.c. 2017 2017 Energy Outlook 11
• How might electric cars and the broader mobility revolution affect oil demand?
• How might the abundance of oil resources affect the behaviour of low-cost oil producers?
Oil
© BP p.l.c. 2017 2017 Energy Outlook 12
Abundance of oil resources
Estimates of technically recoverable resources and cumulative oil demand
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
US
Russia
Mb/d
Oil supply of lower-cost producers
Share
Low-cost producer’s share of global liquids production (right axis)
Middle East OPEC
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
Technicallyrecoverable resources
Middle East
CIS
N America
S&C America
Asia Africa
Europe
2015- 2035
2015- 2050
Trillion barrels
Cumulative demand
© BP p.l.c. 2017 2017 Energy Outlook 13
Bcf/d
Gas supply growth: 2015-2035
Bcf/d
Gas consumption by sector
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Shale Conventionaldecline
Conventionalgrowth
Middle East
US
Other
China
Africa
Russia
Australia
Other
0
100
200
300
400
500
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Transport
Buildings
Power
Non-combusted
Industry
Natural gas
© BP p.l.c. 2017 2017 Energy Outlook
Growth of LNG
14
Bcf/d
LNG supply
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990 2005 2020 2035
Other
Russia
Africa
United States
Australia
Qatar
LNG demand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990 2005 2020 2035
Other
Middle East
S&C America
Asia
Europe
Bcf/d
© BP p.l.c. 2017 2017 Energy Outlook
LNG Trade
Net LNG exports and imports in 2035 (Bcf/d)
17
Exports
Imports
15
22
North America
17
Europe 5
Russia
44
Other Asia
9
Middle East
17
Australia 7
Africa S & C America
2
© BP p.l.c. 2017 2017 Energy Outlook 16
Carbon emissions
© BP p.l.c. 2017 2017 Energy Outlook
0
10
20
30
40
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
IEA 450
Base case
Carbon emissions
17
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
% per annum
Contributions to slower growth of carbon emissions
GDP
Energy intensity
Fuel mix
1995-2015 2015-2035
Billion tonnes CO2
Carbon emissions
© BP p.l.c. 2017 2017 Energy Outlook
20
30
40
1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Base case
Faster transition
Even faster transition
Faster transition pathways
18
0 2 4 6 8 10
Transport
Industry &Buildings
CCUS*
Power
Faster transition
Even faster transition
*Carbon capture, use and storage (predominantly in power sector)
Billion tonnes CO2 Billion tonnes CO2 in 2035
Carbon emissions Reductions in emissions versus base case
© BP p.l.c. 2017 2017 Energy Outlook
Energy outlook under alternative transition pathways
CO2 -150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
1995-2015
Base FT EFT
Non-fossil
Coal
Gas
Oil
Total
Mtoe per annum
2015-35
Annual demand growth by fuel
19
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2015 Base FT EFT
Oil Coal
Gas Non-fossil
% of primary energy
The changing fuel mix
2035
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BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition