CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITORSENTIMENT, PRICES AND MARKET DATA
MAY 2019
EMGEP a p e r I n d u s t r y C o n s u l t a n t s
CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019
Page A
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CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019
Page B
Table of Contents Page
Introduction 1
Methodology and Data 1
EMGE Interview Results Summary - Europe 2
Cutsize Prices - Europe 6
Data Summary - Europe 8
Demand & Trade - Europe 9
Shipments, Capacity & Operating Ratios - Europe 12 Costs & Drivers 14
Global Focus 15
Global Cutsize Prices 15
Global Cutsize Demand 16 Regional Cutsize Paper Demand (3mma Growth) 17
List of Figures
1. Results summary 2
2. Cutsize Market Index 3
3. Demand 3
4. Delivery Times 4
5. Inventory Levels (Buyer/Merchants) 4
6. Pricing Sentiment 5
7. Business Prospects 5
8. Cutsize Prices by Country (C Grade) 6
9. Average Cutsize Prices (A, B & C Grade) 6
10. Comparative Cutsize Prices – EURO/t 7
11. Comparative Cutsize Prices – GBP/t 7
12. Demand Growth – W.Europe-16 10
13. Demand Growth – E.Europe-14 10
14. Imports 11
15. Exports 11
16. Shipments Growth (3mma) 13
17. Operating Ratios (3mma) 13
CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019
Page 1
Introduction
In this document, you will find the latest EMGE Cutsize Monthly Monitor, which
provides data for APRIL / MAY 2019, together with charts and tables showing the
development of Demand, Shipments, Capacity, Operating Ratios, Prices, Delivery Times,
Inventories and Short Term Business Prospects for Uncoated Woodfree Cutsize Paper in
Europe, as well as charts and data on Cutsize markets outside of Europe.
DEFINITIONS:
W.EUROPE-16 is defined as Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy,
Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK.
E.EUROPE-14 is defined as Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Latvia,
Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia (excludes Russia & CIS).
DEMAND is defined as apparent consumption of paper, i.e. the volume of shipments plus imports less
exports.
DELIVERIES / SHIPMENTS are a proxy for Production - sales from producers in one region to all world
regions.
CAPACITY numbers are calculated on a Monthly basis, derived from the EMGE global mill and machine
database. They take account of changes in capacity (improvements and investments) and are adjusted for
monthly variations in availability, but not for market-related downtime, strikes etc.
The SHIPMENTS TO CAPACITY RATIO is a proxy for Operating Ratios and therefore may not
necessarily equate precisely to mill Operating Rates.
Methodology and Data
The data in this report are from EMGE’s proprietary database, compiled from a wide range of
sources, as well as market interviews. EMGE conducts a regular programme of market interviews
with respondents from across various sectors of the Cutsize market, including Paper Merchants,
Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and Office Stationery Distributors (OSDs). These
interviews are conducted by telephone and respondents are asked for their opinions on the
current state of business at that moment in time, including Demand, Delivery Times, Inventory
Levels and Price Levels, as well as Business Prospects in the short term. The results are provided
on an aggregated basis throughout and confidentiality of company and private data is maintained.
In order to make this document as easy as possible to use, while at the same time providing a
great deal of information and data, we summarise the key issues in the charts and tables below.
CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019
Page 2
EMGE Interview Results Summary - Europe
Index falls for 6th consecutive month in May
FIGURE 1. RESULTS SUMMARY
Scale Previous Latest
100 = Good Conditions CUTSIZE MARKET INDEX 50 = Stable 55.6 53.9 v 0 = Poor Conditions 51-100 = Improving DEMAND 50 = Stable 37.5 38.3 ^ 0-49 = Worsening DELIVERY TIMES Balance Level (Weeks) 4.0 4.0 o INVENTORY LEVELS 100 = High BUYERS/MERCHANTS 50 = Medium 71.4 68.4 v 0 = Low Avge number of days 28.5 27.4 v PRICING SENTIMENT 51-100 = Moving Up From MILL 50 = Stable 66.2 65.3 v 0-49 = Moving Down 51-100 = Optimistic BUSINESS PROSPECTS 50 = Stable 47.9 37.5 v 0-49 = Pessimistic
EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019
The table above provides an overview of market developments for the latest month,
based on feedback from EMGE’s interview respondents.
Respondent feedback weakened on balance in May 2019, compared to the previous
month. Of the current factors, Demand improved, Delivery Times were stable,
Inventory Levels fell again and Pricing Sentiment weakened, but it was arguably the
collapse in Short-Term Business Prospects that pushed the overall Index lower.
These latest developments led to a fall in the EMGE Cutsize Market Index in May 2019,
from 55.6 to 53.9.
The following pages show the historical development of each factor in the table above.
This table shows the most
recent month’s aggregated
results of survey responses,
together with the latest EMGE
Cutsize Market Index and
changes in the Tendency
(movement from the previous
month).
CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019
Page 3
FIGURE 2. CUTSIZE MARKET INDEX
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-16
May
-16
Jun-
16Ju
l-16
Aug
-16
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-16
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-17
May
-17
Jun-
17Ju
l-17
Aug
-17
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-17
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-18
May
-18
Jun-
18Ju
l-18
Aug
-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-18
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-19
May
-19
EMGE Cut Size Market Index
Improving Market Conditions
Worsening Market Conditions Source: EMGE
EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019
FIGURE 3. DEMAND
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
MA
Y'1
8
JUN
'18
JUL
'18
AU
G'1
8
SE
P'1
8
OC
T'1
8
NO
V'1
8
DE
C'1
8
JAN
'19
FE
B'1
9
MA
R'1
9
AP
R'1
9
MA
Y'1
9Demand
Improving
Worsening Source: EMGE
EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019
The EMGE Cutsize Market
Index provides a general
indicator of overall market
conditions in the European
Cutsize market. A value of 50
indicates stable conditions.
The Index has been
consistently positive for the
past 19 months. The most
recent month, May 2019, was
nevertheless the lowest reading
of those 19 months.
On average, our interview
respondents rated Demand as
being still very poor, although
falling slightly less steeply in
May.
CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019
Page 4
FIGURE 4. DELIVERY TIMES
3.9
4.1
4.3
4.5
4.7
4.9
5.1
MA
Y'1
8
JUN
'18
JUL
'18
AU
G'1
8
SE
P'1
8
OC
T'1
8
NO
V'1
8
DE
C'1
8
JAN
'19
FE
B'1
9
MA
R'1
9
AP
R'1
9
MA
Y'1
9
Delivery Times (Weeks)
Source: EMGE
EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019
FIGURE 5. INVENTORY LEVELS (BUYER/MERCHANTS)
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
MA
Y'1
8
JUN
'18
JUL
'18
AU
G'1
8
SE
P'1
8
OC
T'1
8
NO
V'1
8
DE
C'1
8
JAN
'19
FE
B'1
9
MA
R'1
9
AP
R'1
9
MA
Y'1
9
Inventory Levels (Days)
Source: EMGE
EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019
According to our interview
respondents, Delivery Times
remained at 4.0 weeks in May
2019.
Buyer/Merchant Inventory
levels slipped for a third month
in May 2019, from 71.4 to
68.4.
CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019
Page 5
FIGURE 6. PRICING SENTIMENT
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
MA
Y'1
8
JUN
'18
JUL
'18
AU
G'1
8
SE
P'1
8
OC
T'1
8
NO
V'1
8
DE
C'1
8
JAN
'19
FE
B'1
9
MA
R'1
9
AP
R'1
9
MA
Y'1
9
Source: EMGE
Mill Price Movements (Index, 50 = Stable)
Rising
Falling
EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019
FIGURE 7. BUSINESS PROSPECTS
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
MA
Y'1
8
JUN
'18
JUL
'18
AU
G'1
8
SE
P'1
8
OC
T'1
8
NO
V'1
8
DE
C'1
8
JAN
'19
FE
B'1
9
MA
R'1
9
AP
R'1
9
MA
Y'1
9Short Term Business Prospects
Optimistic
Pessimistic Source: EMGE
EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019
Cutsize pricing sentiment
weakened in May 2019, for
the first time since December
2016.
However, it so far remains
positive, despite prices falling in
May 2019.
Business Prospects collapsed in
May 2019, falling even deeper
into negative territory.
The reading fell from 47.9 to
37.5.
CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019
Page 6
Cutsize Prices - Europe
FIGURE 8. CUTSIZE PRICES BY COUNTRY (C GRADE)
Germany France Italy Spain AVGE GBP£ to UK
EURO€/t EURO€/t EURO€/t EURO€/t EURO€/t EURO€ GBP£/t
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019
The table above provides EMGE mill-delivered price data for Cutsize papers in Europe,
based on 80gsm C (Economy) grade. In May 2019, EMGE’s average C grade prices fell in
all monitored markets, in local currencies.
FIGURE 9. AVERAGE CUTSIZE PRICES (A, B & C GRADE)
EURO/t EURO/t EURO/t GBP/t GBP/t GBP/t
A B C A B C
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019
Taking our average Mainland European and UK prices for C (Economy) grade from Figure
8 (columns in bold), we have calculated average price upcharges for B (Standard) grade
and A (Premium) grade, based on recent feedback from buyers and sellers in the market.
Overall respondent feedback suggests that B grade prices are currently around €45/t or
£40/t higher than C grade, on average, while A grade prices are a further €50/t or £50/t
higher than B grade, on average.
This table shows EMGE mill-
delivered price data for Cutsize
papers in Europe, based on
80gsm C (Economy) grade.
In local currencies, prices fell in
all monitored markets in May
2019.
This table shows EMGE
average mill-delivered price
data for A (Premium), B
(Standard) and C (Economy)
grades.
CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019
Page 7
FIGURE 10. COMPARATIVE CUTSIZE PRICES (C GRADE) – EURO/T
780
800
820
840
860
880
900
920
940
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Aug
-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-18
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-19
May
-19
EURO€/tonne
Ger
UK
Source: EMGE
Fra
Italy
Spain
EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019
FIGURE 11. COMPARATIVE CUTSIZE PRICES (C GRADE) – GBP/T
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Aug
-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-18
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Apr
-19
May
-19
GBP£/tonne
Ger
UK
Source: EMGE
Fra
Italy
Spain
EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019
In May 2019, prices for branded C grade fell in all monitored European markets (in local
currency terms). However, exchange-rate movements meant that UK prices fell a little
more steeply in Euro terms, relative to Euro-based prices.
Prices fell in local currencies in
all monitored markets in May
2019.
In Euro terms, UK prices fell
slightly more steeply, because
of a weaker GB£ / stronger
Euro.
By comparison, the Euro-based
prices hardly fell at all in GB£
terms.
CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019
Page 8
Data Summary - Europe
EUROPEAN CUTSIZE SUMMARYMONTHLY MONITOR Month 4STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Year 2019
APPARENT DEMAND Current Month Growth %pa Year-to-Date Growth %pa 3mma
W.EUROPE-16
E.EUROPE-14
EUROPE-30
DELIVERIES Current Month Growth %pa Year-to-Date Growth %pa 3mma
W.EUROPE-16
E.EUROPE-14
EUROPE-30
CAPACITY Current Month Growth %pa Year-to-Date Growth %pa 3mma
W.EUROPE-16
E.EUROPE-14
EUROPE-30
SHIPMENTS TO Last 3
CAPACITY RATIO % 2019 2018 2019 2018 Months
W.EUROPE-16
E.EUROPE-14
EUROPE-30
Current Month Year-to-Date
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL– this information is not to be shown or copied to people outside our client’s company.
The table above summarises Apparent Demand, Shipments, Capacity and Operating Ratios for Cutsize Paper in Europe-30 (W.Europe-16 and E.Europe-14), based on data for the latest month.
This table provides a summary
of Demand, Trade, Deliveries,
Capacity and Operating Ratios
for the latest month.
CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019
Page 9
Demand & Trade - Europe
EUROPEAN CUTSIZE DEMANDMONTHLY MONITOR Month 4STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Year 2019
APPARENT DEMAND Current Month Growth %pa Year-to-Date Growth %pa 3mma
BELGIUM
FRANCE
GERMANY
IBERIA
ITALY
NETHERLANDS
NORDIC
UK
OTHERS
W.EUROPE-16
CZECH REPUBLIC
GREECE
HUNGARY
POLAND
ROMANIA
SLOVAKIA
OTHERS
E.EUROPE-14
EUROPE-30
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL– this information is not to be shown or copied to people outside our client’s company.
Apparent Demand for UWF Cutsize Paper in Europe-30 fell by -0.4% in April 2019,
due to a fall of -1.3% in W.Europe-16, outweighing growth of +4.8% in E.Europe-14.
This was broadly on trend for W.Europe-16, but way above trend in E.Europe-14.
This table provides a detailed
country-by-country breakdown
of Demand for the latest
month.
CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019
Page 10
FIGURE 12. DEMAND GROWTH – W.EUROPE-16
3MMA
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%M
ar-1
8
Apr
-18
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-18
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Source: EMGE
Demand Growth (3mma)
W.EUROPE-16
Source: EMGE
EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019
FIGURE 13. DEMAND GROWTH – E.EUROPE-14
3MMA
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Apr
-18
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-18
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Apr
-19
Source: EMGE
Demand Growth (3mma)
E.EUROPE-14Source: EMGE
EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019
These charts show the 3mma
growth/declines of Cutsize paper
demand in W.Europe-16 and
E.Europe-14.
CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019
Page 11
FIGURE 14. IMPORTS
Europe-30
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Apr‐18 May‐18 Jun‐18 Jul‐18 Aug‐18 Sep‐18 Oct‐18 Nov‐18 Dec‐18 Jan‐19 Feb‐19 Mar‐19 Apr‐19
'000t
Brazil
Other
Indonesia / Thailand
USA
Russia
Source: EMGE
EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019
FIGURE 15. EXPORTS
Europe-30
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Apr‐18 May‐18 Jun‐18 Jul‐18 Aug‐18 Sep‐18 Oct‐18 Nov‐18 Dec‐18 Jan‐19 Feb‐19 Mar‐19 Apr‐19
'000t
Other E.Europe
North America
Latin America
Asia / OC
AF / ME
Source: EMGE
EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019
This chart shows the monthly
development of Europe-30
Cutsize paper imports by source
region.
This chart shows the monthly
development of Europe-30
Cutsize paper exports by
regional destination.
CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019
Page 12
Shipments, Capacity & Operating Ratios - Europe
SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCEMONTHLY MONITOR Month 4STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Year 2019
DELIVERIES Current Month Growth %pa Year-to-Date Growth %pa 3mma
W.EUROPE-16
E.EUROPE-14
EUROPE-30
CAPACITY Current Month Growth %pa Year-to-Date Growth %pa 3mma
W.EUROPE-16
E.EUROPE-14
EUROPE-30
SHIPMENTS TO Last 3
CAPACITY RATIO % 2019 2018 2019 2018 Months
W.EUROPE-16
E.EUROPE-14
EUROPE-30
Current Month Year-to-Date
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL– this information is not to be shown or copied to people outside our client’s company.
Europe-30 Shipments and Capacity grew in April 2019.
These developments resulted in a Europe-30 Operating Ratio of 87% for the month of
April 2019 and 89% for the last 3 months, which was the lowest 3mma Operating Ratio
for almost a year.
This table provides data on
Deliveries, Capacity and
Operating Ratios for the latest
month.
CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019
Page 13
FIGURE 16. SHIPMENTS GROWTH (3MMA)
Europe-30
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
Ap
r-18
May
-18
Jun-
18
Jul-
18
Au
g-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-18
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-19
Shipments
Demand
Growth (3mma), Europe-30
Source: EMGE
EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019
FIGURE 17. OPERATING RATIOS (3MMA)
Europe-30
90%
88%
92%
94%
97%
94%
93%
92%
90%
91% 91% 91%
89%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
Ap
r-18
May
-18
Jun-
18
Jul-
18
Au
g-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-18
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-19
Operating Ratios (3mma)
OVER-SUPPLY ZONE
BALANCED ZONE
SHORT SUPPLY ZONE
FLAT OUT ZONE
Source: EMGE
EMGE & Co. Ltd. © 2019
This chart shows the historical
development of Cutsize paper
shipments from the Europe-30
region.
The (3mma) falls in shipments
and demand have now been
very similar for several months,
suggesting a fairly neutral
Trade balance.
The European Cutsize
Operating Ratio (on a 3mma
basis) fell to around 89% in
the last three months, which
was the lowest 3mma reading
for almost a year.
CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019
Page 14
Costs & Drivers
SERVICE SECTOR PMI, EUROPE SERVICE SECTOR EMPLOYMENT, EUROPE
STATIONERY RETAIL SALES, UK
MAIL VOLUMES, GERMANY
PULP PRICES (BEKP), EUROPE SORTED OFFICE PAPER PRICES, UK
WRITING INSTRUMENTS, EUROPE
PRINTER SHIPMENTS, EUROPE
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119
160
165
170
175
May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19
% pa
% pa
GBP/t
% pa
Source: ONS
Source: IDC
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19
Index (Jan‐17=100)
Source: Let's RecycleSource: Hawkins Wright
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19
Source: IHS Markit
>50 = Growth
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119
% pa
Source: Deutsche Post DHL
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19
Source: Eurostat
CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019
Page 15
Global Focus
Global Cutsize Prices
In May 2019, prices fell in Europe, but were stable in the USA and Southeast Asia.
GLOBAL CUTSIZE PRICESMONTHLY MONITOR Month 5STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Year 2019
PRICES (LOCAL CURRENCY) Current Month Month-1 Month-3 Month-6 Month-12
GERMANY, EURO/t
UK, GBP/t
USA, USD/t
SE ASIA (CN, HK, ID, KR, TH, VT), USD/t
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
May
-18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
8
Aug
-18
Sep-
18
Oct
-18
Nov
-18
Dec
-18
Jan-
19
Feb-
19
Mar
-19
Apr
-19
May
-19
Comparative Cutsize Prices
USA
UK
GER
Source: EMGE
ASIA
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
May
-18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
8
Aug
-18
Sep-
18
Oct
-18
Nov
-18
Dec
-18
Jan-
19
Feb-
19
Mar
-19
Apr
-19
May
-19
Comparative Cutsize Prices
USA
UK
GER
EURO/t
USD/t
ASIA
Source: EMGE
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL – this information is not to be shown or copied to people outside our client’s company.
In local currencies, Cutsize prices in May 2019 were stable in the USA and Southeast Asia,
but fell in Europe.
Nevertheless, SE Asian prices again remained clearly the lowest of those that we monitor.
This table compares global
prices for Cutsize papers in
USD/t and Euro€/t, based on
80gsm C-grade.
CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019
Page 16
Global Cutsize Demand
GLOBAL CUTSIZE DEMANDMONTHLY MONITOR Month 3STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Year 2019
DEMAND ('000t) Current Month Growth %pa Year-to-Date Growth %pa 3mma
W.EUROPE
E.EUROPE (inc. Russia/Other)
N.AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA
ASIA / ANZAC
AFRICA / MIDDLE EAST
WORLD TOTAL
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
Jan
-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-
13S
ep-1
3N
ov-
13Ja
n-1
4M
ar-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
l-14
Sep
-14
No
v-14
Jan
-15
Mar
-15
May
-15
Jul-
15S
ep-1
5N
ov-
15Ja
n-1
6M
ar-1
6M
ay-1
6Ju
l-16
Sep
-16
No
v-16
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-
17S
ep-1
7N
ov-
17Ja
n-1
8M
ar-1
8M
ay-1
8Ju
l-18
Sep
-18
No
v-18
Jan
-19
Mar
-19
Global Cutsize Demand Composite Leading Indicator3MMA Growth
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL – this information is not to be shown or copied to people outside our client’s company.
NOTE – this information is updated on a quarterly basis.
Global Cut-Size UWF demand fell by -2.5% in March 2019 and by -2.4% for Q1 2019.
These were broadly in line with the -2.7% fall in 2018 as a whole.
Demand fell across all reported regions in March and Q1 2019, most heavily in Eastern
Europe (-6.6% in Q1) and Latin America (-4.4%), with most other regions down by around
-1% to -2% for the quarter.
CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019
Page 17
Regional Cutsize Paper Demand (3mma Growth)
WEST EUROPE-16 EAST EUROPE (INC. RUSSIA)
ASIA / ANZAC
NORTH AMERICA
AFRICA / MIDDLE EAST
LATIN AMERICA
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Mar
-18
Ap
r-18
May
-18
Jun-
18
Jul-
18
Au
g-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-18
Dec
-18
Jan-
19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
3mma
W.Europe-16
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Mar
-18
Ap
r-18
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-18
Dec
-18
Jan-
19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
3mma
E.Europe (inc. Russia)
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
Mar
-18
Ap
r-18
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-18
Dec
-18
Jan-
19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%M
ar-1
8
Ap
r-18
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-18
Dec
-18
Jan-
19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
3mma
Latin America
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
Mar
-18
Ap
r-18
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-18
Dec
-18
Jan-
19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
3mma
Asia / Anzac
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
Mar
-18
Ap
r-18
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-18
Dec
-18
Jan-
19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
3mma
Africa / Middle East
3mma
N.America
These charts show the
historical development
(3mma growth) of cutsize
demand in each reported
region.
CUTSIZE MONTHLY MONITOR – MAY 2019
Page 18
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