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C5-(,$
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?'(-@ !-(1- ?$5$`4(- ;
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O#'_-&"-, G#'E"% .$"-1
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Annualized Building Permit Activity to October
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Annualized Industrial Permit Activity to Octob
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Annualized Residential Housing Unit Starts to Octob
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Sherwood Park Single Family Land Inventories
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B$LJ#4$( B'(&-+" O/$(
Approx: 400 acr
Total Population
(proposed)
Build out: 15-20
Two Developers
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!$/41J3#@ [4//$5-I U-X-/'+L-(" B'(&-
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^#$(14" !"$P'( I B'(1"#3&P'( ;
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eK C("%'(@ 2-(,$@ O/$((4(5
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B'L+/-P'( ,$"- 'a U-&-LJ-# ;
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O#'_-&" *+,$"-1 ?-"%','/'5@
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O4+-/4(-1 $(, ^-#L4($/ C&PX4P-1! 7")8$9 0'9:.)I KA+$(14'( 'a "-#L4($/ "' 13++'#" ^
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C/J-#"$ N(,31"#4$/ 2-$#"/$(, *+,$"-1! !"$"'4/ 1'/, =:;
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Exp
Shell Chemicals
ShellRefineryShell Upgra
Construstorage
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O'"-(P$/ .41H1 ; $(, Y-@'(,
!?-A4&' '+-(4(5 3+ ,'L-1P& '4/ +#',3&a'#-45( 4(X-1"L-("
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!3LL$#@ B$($,$ b C/J-#"$ b !"#$"%&
B'3("@ GUO G#'E"%
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Demographic Information
./$%012# 32$#/& 425$6"72# 8# *+,, 9 ,:);
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Labour market expectations for Sturgeon CountyA growing workforce as the regions economy expands
Worker type: Trades & apprenticeshipsLabour force: 11,064 peopleEmployment rate: 67.7%Unemployment rate: 4.6%
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Sturgeon Countys Economic Impact within the Capital Region
A clear indication of economic progress
2012 GDP: $798 mil or 1.4% of Edmonton CMA GDPIndustry Clusters: Value Added Agriculture | Manufacturing | Advanced EnergyCommodities: Grains | Fertilizer | PetrochemicalsBusiness count: 1,571 (Dec 2012)
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Development in Sturgeon County in 2013
Value of development permits (Nov YTD): $1.64 mil Commercial, $372.48 mil - IndustrialValue of building permits (Nov YTD): $1.74 mil Commercial, $17.64 mil - IndustrialAssessed values: 500% increase in Sturgeon Industrial Park over the last 24 months
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41%E8/ Q"/" L*++:F*+,RO
Recent Growth
.&/0$,12'( 3445 3464 3466 3463
.&+&?'1
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Population (2011): 19,578Growth rate: 5.5%Population density: 9 people per km2High growth areas: Morinville |Gibbons | Sturgeon Valley
2013 (CMHC Up to end ofNovember)S.C. Housing starts: 114
Under Construction: 99
There are residential hot spots inthe region
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Subdivision activity in 2013Multi lot subdivisions applications: 2Single lot subdivision applications: 48
Residential growth challengesinfrastructure capacity
Primary residential nodes identified
for growth:VilleneuveSturgeon ValleyCardiff
List of pending projects:C diff Rd
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Phase 1 Construction: Spring 2013 | Operational in 2017 | $5.7 Billion Capital CostProducts: Clean Performance Diesel | Diluent | Naphtha | Low Sulphur Vacuum Gas Oil | Light Ends (propane, butEmployment: 3,000 people on site during construction | 500 permanent jobsTransportation Impact:70 per cent of its workers by busSpin-offjobs: Approximately 1,000
North West Redwater Partnership Sturgeon Refinery
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Williams Energy
Undertaking several projects at theirSturgeon County site including:
Redwater Olefins Facility (ROF) De-ethanizer project construction currentlytaking place, to allow for ethane/ethylene
extraction, aiming to be in-service in Q4 2013Detailed engineering for futuredebottlenecking at their existing site, to allowfor fractionation of more offgas liquids fromCNRL Horizon, estimated start up in May 2015.
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Access Pipeline Working on construction of their Northeast
expansion, a 42 pipeline from Christina Laketo their Sturgeon Terminal.
Initial capacity of 350,000 barrels of blendedbitumen per day.
Capital cost of $1 Billion 600 construction workers Scheduled to be operational by 2015.
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Pembina PipelineRedwater Fractionator and Storage (RFS) Project II
Twinning existing 73,000 bpd ethane-plus fractionator capacity at curre Subject to regulatory and environmental approvals Estimated Capital Cost of $415 million Expected to be operational in the fourth quarter of 2015
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Medium Industrial Projects
ClearStream Currently constructing a Head Office and fabric McAsphalt Currently constructing a $10 million Asphalt blen Univar Currently constructing a $8.5 million trans load facilit
bulk products such as methanol and caustic soda to Fort McM
Magnum Cementing Services Currently constructing a $1 maid their oil field services company.
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NWR: Partnership with CBI for proposed High Load
Corridor
Increased industrial development prompts
attention to infrastructure
Avg. Price of Land (SIP): $200,000.00/acre for subdivided |$103,000/acre for unsubdivided lotsOffsite Levy: $70,168 per Ha or $28,395/acreIncrease in Assessed Value: 500% in 12 to 18 months
Avg. Price of Land (S.C. AIH): $10,000 to 50,000/acre
Planned Infrastructure Projects
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Servicing Improvements Highlights
Water and Sanitary servicing along TWP552 is complete
Reservoir is currently being done and isexpected to be completed in 2014
Water servicing along RR 225 will becompleted in 2014
Water and Sanitary servicing alongEstates Way has started and will be
completed in 2014
Water and Sanitary servicing parallel toHighway 825 is almost complete
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Serviced Properties:
1980 - 2012
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Serviced Properties:
2013
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Serviced Properties:
2014
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Infrastructure Improvements
Municipal Road Improvements
TWP 552 Reconstruction for Heavy Pavement and Highway 825Intersection Reconstruction and Heavy Pavement will be comp
early 2014
RR 225 Reconstruction for Heavy Pavement and RR 225/HighwaIntersection Upgrade will take place in 2014
Anticipated closure of current Bunge Access offof Highway 825
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Infrastructure ImprovementsProvincial Road Improvements
Alberta Transportation has hired Genivar to review the InterHighways 15/37/825. There are supposed to be open houses
to review Genivars proposed potential options.
Ultimately, Genivar is expected to provide their recommenda
the end of March 2014 with the hopes of getting the project ATs Three Year Plan.
Highway 825 re-alignment is currently in ATs Three Year Plan Highway 825 will eventually be widened
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!"#$%&'
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Villeneuve Airports Economic Impact
Logistics to enhance economic capacity
Business: 16 businesses in Aircraftflight training | Fixed-wing aircraft &helicopter maintenance | aviation operationsEconomic Impact: $31 mil output | $1.3 mil taxes | 90 direct jobsInvestments to date: $5-6 million runway extension, upgrade ILSPlanned: Utility lines | Industrial lots
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Start in Sturgeon Website
2013 Estimates
Visits: 2,000
Page Views: 15,000
Pages/Visit: 7.5
Avg. Visit Duration: two minutes
NEW LOOK COMING SOON!!
Promoting Economic Development
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Albertas Industrial Heartland AssociationEstablished in 1998, the AIHA is a collaborative effort of Sturgeon CounEdmonton, Fort Saskatchewan, Lamont County and Strathcona County. Wtogether, the municipalities are committed to sustainable development economic development and planning.
Alberta's Industrial Heartland is one of the world's most attractive locatifor chemical, petrochemical, oil, and gas investment. It is also Canada's lahydrocarbon processing region. The region's 40+ companies several beinscale, provide fuels, fertilizers, power, petrochemicals and more to provinglobal consumers.
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S@1 T1U/ V"N1 2D WAXW Q1N1625E1#/
1. Huge amount of interest from Asian petrochemical companies in Alber2. AIHA currently working with a number of different companies intereste
investing in the region
3. Continued interest as shale gas potential is further explored.
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???G"6K1%/"1#1%0&56$CGB"
The Vision To make Alberta the worlds leading petrochemical produce The Partners AIHA, Williams, Nova Chemicals, NWR, Enhance Energy, Ag Alberta Plus is aiming to attract additional partners, engage the public an
government to encourage further hydrocarbon and value-added produc
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Summary
Lots of growth taking place throughout the region Vast amount of medium and heavy industrial projects underway and Upgraded infrastructure is opening up new opportunities AIH potential is gaining more and more global credibility and recog 2014 is shaping up to be a very busy year
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Thank
F f
Edmontons
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Business & Financial
Climate
Realtors Housing ForecSeminar
A d
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Agenda
Recent Developments Global Context Canada & Alberta Energy Prices Regional Current Indicators
The Longer Term Outlook
Global Context
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Global Context
An uneven and anaemicrecovery continues
Forecast growth rates inmost regions have been
lowered Euro zone is experiencinga double dip recession
Global financial marketsremain fragile
2014 should be a better
% Real Grow
China
Emerging
World
US
Canada
E A
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Canada, AlbEdmonto
Canadian worsened inthe first half
Sluggish US expansionmoderated growth in2012
Alberta will continue tooutperform nationalaverage
2014 very good for GDP& employment growth in
% Real Growth
0 1 2
City of
Edmonton
The Region
Alberta
Oil Prices
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Oil PricesWest Texas Intermediate
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
$USB
bl
Canadian Discount Retur
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Canadian Discount Retur
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
8 08 9 09 0 10 1 11 2 12 3
Natural Gas Prices
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Natural Gas PricesHenry Hub
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
$US/mmBtu
Job Growth Continues
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The Regions rate of jobgrowth among the fastestof any large municipality.
Very strong growth in Q22013.
Growing labour force hasmoderated wagepressures.
Recent strong job gainsmay point to labour
Unemployment
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
ec
un
ec
un
ec
un
%
Employment Growth Across M
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p y
0.98
1.00
1.03
1.05
1.08
1.10
1.13
1.15
Edmonto
Toronto
Calgary
Montrea
Vancouv
Ottawa
Edmontons Labour Marke
Powers Ahead
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Powers Ahead
Outstanding growth inemployment labourforce and population.
Gains are high paying,full time jobs.
Very strong migrationinto the region.
Implications Strongmomentum in the localeconomy will sustain
% Annual Grow
August
da
Alb
erta
Edmo
nton
Growth in Average Weekl
Earnings in Edmonton
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Earnings in Edmonton
$920
$940
$960
$980
$1,000
$1,020
$1,040
$1,060
Consumer Inflation Moving
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g
The regions year-over-year inflation rate pickedup.
Gasoline, rental rates andnatural gas prices are
beginning to move up. Inflation will pick up
somewhat from currentlevels. Forecast is for2.5% the by early 2014.
Consumer Price
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec
11
%
Sources of Growth in EdmonYear to September 2013
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Year to September 2013
Educational Services
Business, Building and Other Support Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Public administration
Trade
Utilities
All Industries
Other services
Accommodation and food services
Transportation and Warehousing
Forestry, Fishing, Mining, Oil and Gas
Construction
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing
Manufacturing
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Growth Moderates
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The Region has enjoyed aquicker recovery asmanufacturing andconstruction activitypicked up speed through
2011 and 2012. Over the medium term the
city growth rate convergeswith that of the region.
Strong in migration allows 12
3
4
5
6
%
Real GDP G
Risks to the Outlook
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Downside
Continuing discountfor Cdn oil noadditional pipeline
capacity
Consumer confidencefalters
European financial
Upside U.S. recovery
momentum
Europe patchefinancial issuereturns to fast
growth profile
China and oth
Q & A
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John RoseChief Economist
Financial Services and Utilities
5th Floor, Chancery Hall
Edmonton, Alberta, T5J 2C3
(780) 496-6070
Global Market Access:The Rain Cloud
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Supply is Growing
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Market Reaction to Access Is
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Oil and Gas Drives BusinesInvestment
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Diversifying Exports - BuildingStrengths
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Demands on Infrastructure AGrowing
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Alberta Projects of $5 milliongreater
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Canadian Far North PetroleResources
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For more information about thEdmonton Chamber or on th
presentation contact us at:
(780) 426-4620
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REALTORS Association of Edmonton
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2014 Edmonton Housing Forecast
Greg Steele, President
REALTORS Association of Edmonton
2014 RAE Board of Directors! President: Greg Steele! Past President: Darrell Cook! P id t El t G T t lt
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! President Elect: Geneva Tetreault! Vice President: Steve Sedgwick! Director: Pat Liviniuk! Director: Sheldon Johnston! Director: Michelle Patterson-Nipp! Director: Dwight Streu! Director: Shirley Williams
Residential Sales
1350
All Res Sales 2011-13
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450
550
650
750
850
950
1050
1150
1250
Jan Feb March April May June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec
Sales
2013
2012
2011
Inventory
7,000
All Res Inventory 2011-13
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-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
3 year trend line
SFD and Condo Sales
600
CMA Condo List/Sold 2011-1013SFD Sales 2011-13
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200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Sales
2011 Sales
2012 Sales
2013 Sales
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
AxisTitle
2011
2012
2013
Single Family to Condo Sales Ratio
17055
Condo Compared to All Res Sales
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0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
5073 4426 4435 4412 5059
16746
1433914891 15812
CONDO
All Res
Residential Property Prices
360 000
370,000
All Res Prices 2011-13
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310,000
320,000
330,000
340,000
350,000
360,000
Jan Feb March April May June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec
2011
2012
2013
Average Price for SFD and Condos
420 000
430,000
SFD Avg Prices 2011-13
270,000
CMA Condo Prices 2011-13
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360,000
370,000
380,000
390,000
400,000
410,000
420,000
Jan April July Oct
AxisTitle 2011
2012
2013
210,000
220,000
230,000
240,000
250,000
260,000
2011
2012
2013
Days on Market
70
80
Days on Market 2011-13
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan Feb March April May June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec
2011
2012
2013
Sales to Listings
180.00%
200.00% S/L Ratio 2013
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0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
140.00%
160.00%
Jan Feb March April May June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec
2012
2013
Housing Prices in Edmonton vs. Canada!"#"$%"# !%'( )*+ ,-., )*+ ,-./ 010 !2"#34 5 *6 7$8*#'*#
9"#:*;+4
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)*&%+$" )')%(.+ &-"(/ )#-$./
=*
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0
200
400
600
Jan Feb March April May June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April May June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec
CMA Sold YEG Sold
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Jan Feb March April May June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April May June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec
All Res Sales CMA vs YEG 2012-13
CMA Sold YEG Sold BOARD Sales
Sales by Price Range
350,000
360,000
370,000
All Residential Average Price 2011-13
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280,000
290,000
300,000
310,000
320,000
330,000
340,000
YEG Price CMA Price
Sales by Price and Type 2013
2000
2500
# YTD sales by price range 2013
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0
500
1000
1500
AxisTitle
SFD
Condo
All-Res
High End Properties - SFDs
1000
1200
1400
1200
1400
1600
SFD Sales By Price 2011-13
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0
200
400
600
800
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2011
2012
2013
High Value Properties
!Sales of homes over $1 million up 29%!115 sales compared to 89 in 2012
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!Highest SFD sale - $3.4 million
!Highest Condo sale - $1.6 million!DOM Range from 4 days to 14 months! average 74 days
!Current active listings 112!Calgary had 732 Million dollar sales in 2013
Edmonton Sub-markets
D
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I*
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A*84
0(++%#)&%+)) &&-*/ &%'*+ 10.7%
9":"#' D:
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2010 $299,831,418 51.68% 682 29.66%
2011 $255,274,658 -14.86% 651 -4.55%
2012 $329,948,352 29.25% 710 9.06%
2013 $338,951,457 27.29% 658 7.32%
Multi-family!Back to usual sales levels!50 sales compared to 59 last year! Value of sales - $70 million up from $52 million
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!Value of sales $70 million up from $52 million!33% value growth over 2012!Not accurate reflection of total market because of
non-MLS System sales by builders and developers
SFD Forecast! SFD Average Price rose 4.3%! Double the 2% predicted! Positive Market Forces will continue to drive prices
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! Forecast errs on the side of caution! Predict another 3% price increase for 2014! Sales in YEG static! Sales in CMA up 1,000 units
Condo Forecast! Condo prices increased by 3.4%! Forecast last year was 1% growth! Result of increased sales activity and demand for deluxe
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finishing levels! Numbers do not reflect higher prices of new condos
which are not typically sold through the MLS System
! Downward pressure on price of resale condos
! Predict 2% price increase for 2014! Sales up 2.5% throughout the region
Sales Forecast0=E D+4
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!Both prices and sales volume!Little chance of cliffs, bounces, busts or bubbles!Ensure that commentators are discussing local
market and not Toronto or Vancouver situations
Conclusion!Real Estate Industry influenced by market forces,
governments and regulators
!REALTORS are highly visible targets
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!Be aware of changing market conditions andregulations
!Help your clients to keep up to date!REALTORS: Here when life happens
Thank You!
! Our Sponsors
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Obeo Virtual Tours CMHCREWedmonton.ca ATB FinancialREALTORS Community Foundation EEDCREALTOR Store
! Our exhibitors
Thank You to our speakers!!Roxanne Carr - Strathcona!Rod Shaigec - Parkland!John Whaley - Leduc
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!Tom Flynn - Sturgeon!James Cumming Chamber of Commerce!John Rose City of Edmonton!Christina Butchart - CMHC
Complete the Evaluations!Review the presentation videos on the intranet!Download the presentations from the intranet!Drive Carefully
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y
!Have a great day
!THANK YOU