EconomicImpactofBicyclingandWalkinginVermont
Public Meeting March 15, 2012via Vermont Interactive Technologies
Economic &Policy Resources, Inc.EPR
Economists, Policy and Financial Analysts
VERMONT®
AGENCY OF TRANSPORTATION
2
MeetingLogistics
Streaming The page contains a chat room (below the live stream) which can be used to ask questions.
VIT sites Brattleboro Middlebury Randolph Center Rutland White River Junction
Williston Montpelier Newport Springfield
3
StudyPurpose
To estimate the annual economic impacts of bicycling and walking in Vermont.
Business
Environment
Real estate
Health
Transportation system
4
VermontOverview
Population ~620,000
2009 GDP = $24.6B
2009 employment = 418,673 jobs
2009 labor earnings= $16.6B
5
2010VermontGDPbyPrivateIndustrySector
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
6
Methodology
Avoided Transportation Consumer Costs
Real Estate Value
Bike/Ped Facility Capital Investment
Visitor Spending Related to Bike/Ped
Bike/Ped Related Businesses
Avoided Transportation Public
Costs
Jobs
Labor Earnings
State Budget Fiscal Impact (VEGI)
General Description Other Costs and
Benefits
Economic Input/Output Model
(REMI)
WhenAppropriate
Input: Reliable
Output
Input: Reliability to be determined
Output
7
Bicycle/PedestrianInfrastructure/ProgramInvestment
2009 VTrans data
Dedicated B/P projects like shared use paths, bicycle lanes, etc.
Roadway projects that impact B/P: bridge sidewalks, shoulder widening, etc.
Program expenditures: SRTS, Share the Road, recreational trail guides, etc.
8
Bicycle/PedestrianInfrastructure/ProgramInvestment
Results
$17M output
233 jobs
$10M in labor earnings
9
Bicycle/Pedestrian‐RelatedBusinesses
Manufacturing
Retail, including repair & maintenance shops
Mountain biking & hiking trail centers
Tour operators
Bike clubs, trail associations, advocacy groups
10
Bicycle/Pedestrian‐RelatedBusinesses
Manufacturing
Retail, including repair & maintenance shops
Mountain biking & hiking trail centers
Tour operators
Bike clubs, trail associations, advocacy groups
Output=$56M Jobs=1,025 Labor earnings=$26M
11
VisitorSpending
40 major events in 2009
Attracted over 16,000 participants
45,000 associated family & friends
Lodging, retail, food, etc.
Over 2/3 of spending from out‐of‐state visitors
12
VisitorSpending
40 major events in 2009
Attracted over 16,000 participants
45,000 associated family & friends
Lodging, retail, food, etc.
Over 2/3 of spending from out‐of‐state visitors
Output=$9.5M Jobs=160 Labor earnings=$4.7M
13
StateBudgetFiscalImpact
Effect of B/P activities on state budget = $1.57M
$1.54M to General Fund
$28,600 to Transportation Fund
14
StateBudgetFiscalImpact
Effect of B/P activities on state budget = $1.57M
$1.54M to General Fund
$28,600 to Transportation Fund
FY 2009 state budget = $4.3B
$1.2B of which is General Fund
$228M of which is Transportation Fund
15
StateBudgetFiscalImpact
Effect of B/P activities on state budget = $1.57M
$1.54M to General Fund
$28,600 to Transportation Fund
FY 2009 state budget = $4.3B
$1.2B of which is General Fund
$228M of which is Transportation Fund
0.04% of state budget
0.13% of General Fund
0.01% of Transportation Fund
16
AvoidedTransportationSystemCosts
Consumer: vehicle operating costs, depreciation, purchase price
Public: pollution, water quality, noise impacts, parking, health
Methodology:
1. Estimate amount of annual walking & biking in VT.
2009 National Household Travel Survey:
– Miles walked in VT ~68,000,000 (average)
– Miles biked in VT ~28,000,000 (average)
2. Calculate cost savings due to walking or biking instead of driving.
17
AvoidedTransportationSystemCosts
Obtained per mile unit costs for each variable
For example, consumer cost of vehicle ownership per mile, public cost of air pollution per mile traveled
Applied unit costs (step 2) to miles traveled (step 1)
AreaAvoided Auto Travel Costs
Added Biking Associated Costs
Added Walking Associated Costs Net Change
Urban (53,577,546)$ 4,295,967$ 22,914,907$ (26,366,672)$ Rural (52,655,360)$ 7,281,010$ 37,304,476$ (8,069,874)$ Total (106,232,906)$ 11,576,977$ 60,219,383$ (34,436,546)$
18
AvoidedTransportationSystemCosts
Transportation system cost savings: based on assumption that all walking/biking trips replace automobile trips
However, trip might not happen if mode is unavailable reduced accessibility.
Assumes trip distance is equivalent regardless of mode.
Travel time unit cost for auto does not include time for parking and walking to destination.
19
EffectofWalkability onRealEstate
Statistical model of all houses sold in VT, closing price, walkability score, job density & median household income
Estimated effect of walkability score on property value where job density is greater than 110 jobs/sq.mi. (urban):
Results for rural areas determined to be unreliable
Preliminary estimate of walkability impact on property in VT is $350M
20
Results
Real Estate Value
Bike/Ped Facility Capital Investment
Visitor Spending Related to Bike/Ped
Bike/Ped Related Businesses
Jobs
Labor Earnings
Output
Economic Input/Output Model
(REMI)
Input Output(results for one typical year)
Avoided Transportation Consumer Costs
Avoided Transportation Public Costs
Considered but not included in model State Budget
Fiscal Impact
21
Results
Real Estate Value
Bike/Ped Facility Capital Investment
Visitor Spending Related to Bike/Ped
Bike/Ped Related Businesses
Jobs1,418
Labor Earnings$41M
Output$83M
Economic Input/Output Model
(REMI)
Input Output(results for one typical year)
Avoided Transportation Consumer Costs
Avoided Transportation Public Costs
Considered but not included in model
State Budget Fiscal Impact
$1.6M$43M
$42M
$350M
22
Conclusions
Bicycle/pedestrian oriented activities contribute less than 1% to the state’s economy.
Avoided Transportation System Costs: $84M
Real Estate Impact: $350M
Infrastructure expenditures $15.334M Program
expenditures $1.622M
Events $9.476M
Businesses $56.312M
Total Output = $82.7M
23
Conclusions
$1M in infrastructure spending generates ~23 jobs
$1M in program spending generates ~32 jobs
Bike/ped businesses are very seasonal
Bike/ped tourism represents <1% of total visitor expenditures in VT Photo: Local Motion
24
Conclusions
Transportation system cost savings estimates require:
– A better unit cost for travel time
– A better understanding of how car trips are replaced by bike/walk trips (distance and ratio)
25
Conclusions
A methodology for rural areas is needed to improve the estimate of walkability impacts to property values.
Future research could consider the impact on wealth effects.
Photo: Local Motion
26
Conclusions
Comment period ends
Thursday, March 29th, 2012
Comments can be sent to: [email protected]