Editor : Eric Shu
Tel : +852-2277-6678
e-mail : [email protected]
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THE WEEKLY AGENDA
Phillip Talks: The week ahead in gold and stocks
Thai stock market outlook: Testing key support at 1465 points
Domestic politics set to weigh on market: Thai stocks are expected to move sideways with a downward tilt between 1,465 and 1,520 points as investors await new positive catalysts to drive the market upward. The Covid-19 outbreak starts to show signs of improvement after infection rate has slowed; the number of cured patients is rising; and Chinese authorities approved the antiviral Favilavir for use in the treatment of the virus. However, the SET index remains under pressure from domestic factors as (i) the no-confidence debate against six cabinet ministers is expected to weigh on the market at the start of the week, (ii) all eyes will be on whether there will be any protest rally against the Constitutional Court's decision to dissolve Future Forward Party, and (iii) speculation is rife that the country’s GDP my show no growth or contraction in the first quarter amid concerns over the global economic impact of the COVID-19 epidemic. Technically speaking, we see key support at 1465 points and if the SET manages to hold above this level, the main index may start to drift sideways.
SET50 futures trading strategy: Open short position in a range of between 990-1,005 points. Cut loss when the SET rises above 1,012 points.
Gold Outlook: Gold seen biased upward, testing $1,650/oz
Bullish bias: The negative economic consequences of the Covid-19 outbreak is a key support for gold. The coronavirus worrieswere evidence in the yield curve inversion in the US short- andmedium-term bond markets and in SPDR Gold Trust holdingswhich hit a four-year peak, although the Dollar Index, which hasa negative correlation with gold price, reached its five-year high.
Gold futures trading strategy: Look to open long GOH20 in arange of between $1,620-$1,630/oz. Place a stop-loss order ifprice falls below $1,610/oz.
Strategy Team #487
Key factors to watchFeb 24-27The opposition launches a no-confidence debate against the government.
Key economic data
Feb 25
▪ Germany: 4QFY19 GDP (y-y)
Feb 26 US: New home salesFeb 27 US: 4QFY19 GDP (y-y)
Feb 28
Japan: Industrial production and retail sales for Jan (y-y)
Feb 29 China: Manufacturing PMI and
Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
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Weekly Consensus View
Sideways Down
Feb 24 - 28, 2020
02 635 1700 ต่อ 486
Weekly Technical View
Price moved up and tested resistance at aroundBt16.50 and formed the cup-and-handle pattern,while MACD is above the signal line in the positivezone. More gains could likely be on the cards.
“Sideways in range-bound mode”
The SET index bounced from support of the downtrend channel as Modi. Sto. reversed back up and nearly issued a buy signal but the index is under all EMAs which are bearish. So the SET is anticipated to trade sideways in a range of between 1,486 and 1,520 points.
Price crossed above resistance near the EMA-200but held above EMA-10, EMA-25, and EMA-75which aligned. Meanwhile, MACD marched higherin the positive zone. Thus, the stock is expected tomove higher.
SupportResistance
Support
Support
THE WEEKLY AGENDA
Resistance
resistance
ext. 485
STEC 16.00 / 15.60 17.20 / 18.30
TU15.40 / 14.80
16.40 / 17.20
1486 / 1465
1520 / 1540
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Feb 24 - 28, 2020
Technical Team #487
WEEKLY STATISTICS
Performance of major Asian currencies against US dollar
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
Viet
nam
Philip
ines
Hon
g ko
ng
Indi
a
Indo
nesi
a
Chi
na
Sing
apor
e
Taiw
an
Thai
land
Mal
aysi
a
Kore
a
WOW MTD YTDAp
prec
iatio
nD
epre
ciat
ion
-2.30%
-2.14%
-0.77%
-0.74%
-0.66%
-0.61%
-0.21%
0.07%
1.29%
1.80%
3.88%
-4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%
Thailand
Korea
Taiwan
Hong kong
Singapore
Malaysia
India
Vietnam
Indonesia
Philipines
China
w-w Asian stock market performances
Source: Bloomberg
Feb 24 - 28, 2020
www.poems.in.th 3
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
16 D
ec 1
9
23 D
ec 1
9
30 D
ec 1
9
6 Ja
n 20
13 Ja
n 20
20 Ja
n 20
27 Ja
n 20
3 Fe
b 20
10 F
eb 2
0
17 F
eb 2
0
Thailand Philippines S.Korea Taiwan Vietnam Indonesia India
Unit: Mil US$
WEEKLY STATISTICS
Foreign portfolio Flows into 7 ASIAN bourses
Forward P/E ratios of Asian stock markets
22.19
15.71 15.35 15.3114.60
14.0213.24 12.91
12.06
10.51
0
5
10
15
20
25
India
Tai
wan
Mal
aysi
a
Tha
iland
Phili
ppin
es
Indon
esia
Vie
tnam
Sing
apor
e
Chin
a
Hon
g Kon
g
Mean = 14.35
Source: Bloomberg
Feb 24 - 28, 2020
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02 635 1700 ต่อ 486
Commodity Watch
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Feb 24 - 28, 2020
Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg
CUSGHYDF OILA Index Olefin Spread NEX Index (Weekly)
Positive Negative BCP, IRPC, PTTGC Positive Negative IRPC, PTTGC, SCC Positive Negative BANPU
TOP
Dubai Aromatic Spread BDI Index
Positive Negative BCP, IRPC, PTTGC Positive Negative IRPC, PTTGC, TOP Positive Negative JUTHA, PSL,TTA
TOP, PTTEP
Rubber RSS3 Sugar#11 VIX Index
Positive Negative STA Positive Negative KBS, KSL, KTIS Negative Positive SET Index
Soybeans Cotton GOLD
Positive Negative TVO Positive Negative IVL Negative Positive SET Index
Negative Positive CPF, GFPT, TU
Unit: US$/ton Unit: US$/ounce
Unit: US cents/Kg Unit: Cents/Ib
Unit: US cents/bushel
Unit: US$/bbl Unit: US$/ton
Unit: US$/bbl
Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg
Unit: US$/ton Unit: US$/ton
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Sep 19
Oct 19
Nov 19
Dec 19
Jan 20
Feb 20
GRM 1.7(-1.61)
20
40
60
80
100
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
2,100
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Spread: HDPE-Naphtha (RHS)
HDPE (LHS)
Naphtha (LHS)
HDPE spread 361.73(0)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20Spread: Paraxylene-Naphtha (RHS)
Paraxylene (LHS)
Naphtha (LHS)
PX spread 248.31(26.46)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Baltic Dry Index 465(44)
0
10
20
30
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
VIX index 14.38(0.23)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
100
120
140
160
180
200
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Rubber RSS3 167.6(0.3)
0
4
8
12
16
20
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Soybeans 897.25(1)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Cotton 68.48(0.73)
Dubai 56.17(0.74)
NEX 68.05(-0.48)
Sugar#11 15.58(0.42)
GOLD 1609.5(34.5)
Corporate Governance - 2019
www.poems.in.th
PhillipResearch PhillipCapitalTH 02 635 1700 #486
AAV ADVANC AIRA AKP AKR AMA AMATA AMATAV ANAN AOT A ABICO ACAP AEC AEONTS AJ ALUCON AMC APURE AS
AP ARROW BAFS BANPU BAY BCP BCPG BOL BRR BTS ASEFA AU B52 BCH BEAUTY BGT BH BIG BLAND BM
BTW BWG CFRESH CHEWA CHO CK CKP CM CNT COL BR BROCK BSBM BSM BTNC CCET CCP CGD CHARAN CHAYO
COMAN CPALL CPF CPI CPN CSS DELTA DEMCO DRT DTAC CITY CMAN CMC CMO CMR CPL CPT CSR CTW CWT
DTC EA EASTW ECF EGCO GBX GC GCAP GEL GFPT D DIMET EKH EMC EPCO ESSO FE FTE GIFT GLAND
GGC GOLD GPSC GRAMMY GUNKUL HANA HARN HMPRO ICC ICHI GLOCON GPI GREEN GTB GYT HTECH HUMAN IHL INGRS INOX
III ILINK INTUCH IRPC IVL JKN JSP K KBANK KCE JTS JUBILE KASET KCM KKC KWG SYE LEE LPH MATCH
KKP KSL KTB KTC KTIS LH LHIFG LIT LPN MAKRO MATI M-CHAI MCS MDX META MGT MJD MM MVP NC
MALEE MBK MBKET MC MCOT MFEC MINT MONO MTC NCH NDR NER NNCL NPK NUSA OCEAN PAF PF PICO PIMO
NCL NKI NSI NVD NYT OISHI OTO PAP PCSGH PDI PK PLE PMTA POST PPM PROUD PTL RCI RJH ROJNA
PG PHOL PJW PLANB PLANET PORT PPS PR9 PREB PRG RPC RPH SF SGF SGP SKN SLP SMART SOLAR SPG
PRM PSH PSL PTG PTT PTTEP PTTGC PYLON Q-CON QH SQ SSP STI SUPER SVOA TCCC THE THMUI TIC TIGER
QTC RATCH ROBINS RS S S & J SABINA SAMART SAMTEL SAT TNH TOPP TPCH TPIPP TPLAS TQM TTI TYCN UTP VCOM
SC SCB SCC SCCC SCN SDC SEAFCO SEAOIL SE-ED SELIC VIBHA VPO WIN WORK WP WPH ZIGA
SENA SIS SITHAI SNC SORKON SPALI SPI SPRC SSSC STA
STEC SVI SYNTEC TASCO TCAP THAI THANA THANI THCOM THIP
THREL TIP TISCO TK TKT TMB TMILL TNDT TOA TOP
TRC TRU TRUE TSC TSR TSTH TTA TTCL TTW TU
TVD TVO U UAC UV VGI VIH WACOAL WAVE WHA
WHAUP WICE WINNER
2S ABM ADB AF AGE AH AHC AIT ALLA ALT
AMANAH AMARIN APCO APCS AQUA ARIP ASAP ASIA ASIAN ASIMAR Score Range
ASK ASN ASP ATP30 AUCT AYUD B BA BBL BDMS < 50%
BEC BEM BFIT BGC BGRIM BIZ BJC BICHI BLA BPP 50-59%
BROOK CBG CEN CENTEL CGH CHG CHOTI CHOW CI CIMBT 60-69%
CNS COLOR COM7 COTTO CRD CSC CSP DCC DCON DDD 70-79%
DOD EASON ECL EE EPG ERW ESTAR ETE FLOYD FN 80-89%
FNS FORTH FPI FPT FSMART FSS FVC GENCO GJS GL 90-100%
GLOBAL GLOW GULF HPT HTC HYDRO ICN IFS INET INSURE
IRC IRCP IT ITD ITEL J JAS JCK JCKH JMART
JMT JWD KBS KCAR KGI KIAT KOOL KWC KWM L&E
LALIN LANNA LDC LHK LOXLEY LRH LST M MACD MAJORMBAX MEGA METCO MFC MK MODERN MOONG MPG MSC MTI
NEP NETBAY NEX NINE NOBLE NOK NTV NWR OCC OGC
ORI OSP PATO PB PDG PDI PL PLAT PM PPP
PRECHA PRIN PRINC PSTC PT QLT RCL RICHY RML RWI
S11 SAAM SALEE SAMCO SANKO SAPPE SAWAD SCG SCI SCP
SE SFP SIAM SINGER SIRI SKE SKR SKY SMIT SMK
SMPC SMT SNP SONIC SPA SPC SPCG SPVI SR SRICHA
SSC SSF SST STANLY STPI SUC SUN SUSCO SUTHA SWC
SYMC SYNEX T TACC TAE TAKUNI TBSP TCC TCMC TEAM
TEAMG TFG TFMAMA THG THRE TIPCO TITLE TIW TKN TKS
TM TMC TMD TMI TMT TNITY TNL TNP TNR TOG
TPA TPAC TPBI TPCORP TPOLY TRITN TRT TSE TSTE TVI
TVT TWP TWPC UBIS UEC UMI UOBKH UP UPF UPOIC
UT UWC VNT WIIK XO YUASA ZEN ZMICO
Results PresentationNumber of Logo
No logo given
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association
(IOD) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the Office of the
Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the
information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the
Market for Alternative disclosure to the public and able to be accessed by a
general public investor. The results, therefore, is from the perspective of a third
party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance
Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed
after that data. Phillip Securities (Thailand) of securities company does not
confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
Thai CAC (As of Oct 16, 2019)
www.poems.in.th
PhillipResearch PhillipCapitalTH 02 635 1700 #486
Certified
2S ADVANC AIE AKP AMANAH AP AQUA ARROW ASP ASK
BAFS BBL BCH BKI BLA BSBM BAY BANPU BWG BJCHI
BTS BRR CIG CEN CNS CPN CENTEL CPF CHOW CPI
CIMBT COM7 CGH CPALL CSC DEMCO TIP DRT DIMET DTC
DCC ECL EPCO ESTAR EASTW EGCO FNS FSS FTE GCAP
GJS GSTEL GEL GFPT GC GGC GPSC GBX GLOW GOLD
GUNKUL HTC HANA HARN HMPRO ICC ICHI IFS INSURE IVL
INET INTUCH IRPC KBANK KCE KSL KBS KKP K KTB
KWC KCAR KTC LPN LRH LHFG L&E LHK MALEE MBKET
MBK MC MCOT MSC MFEC MINT M MONO MOONG MTI
MBAX NBC NINE NMG NNCL NEP OCC OCEAN OGC PAP
PDI PATO PRG PG PHOL PLANB PLANET PSTC PPPM PDJ
PREB PSL PE PM PPP PT PB PRINC PDG PPS
PTG PTTEP PTTGC PTT PYLON QTC QLT Q-CON QH RML
RATCH THANI RWI SNP SORKON SPACK SABINA SPI SPC SCG
SMIT SMPC SSI SIRI SC SCN SE-ED CFRESH SELIC SENA
SCCC SCB MAKRO SSSC SGP SIS SNC SAT AYUD STA
SRICHA SITHAI VIH SPRC SST SSF SUSCO SMK SYNTEC TMILL
TKT TSTH TPCORP TAE TFI KASET TMD TMT TNR TOP
TOG TPA TFMAMA THRE TSC TU TVO WACOAL TWPC THCOM
TFG THREL TVI TCAP TNP THIP TNL BROOK LANNA NKI
PLAT TASCO TIPCO TISCO TMB DTAC TNITY TTCL TVD U
UWC UBIS UEC UKEM UOBKH VGI VNT WHA WICE
Signatory
ABICO AIRA AF AMA AMARIN AMATA ANAN AI BM BUI
B CI CHO CHG CITY COL EFORL EKH XO FPI
GYT GPI IRC JTS JNK CHOTI KWG LDC META MPG
PK INOX ROJNA SAAM SCI SEAOIL SHANG SKR SPALI SVI
SYNEX TMC TAKUNI TPP STANLY TRITN UV YUASA
Blackout
AJ AH ACAP AEC APURE AOT ALUCON AMATAV A AGE
ASIA ASIMAR APCO ASIAN AS BROCK BKD BFIT BLAND BR
BEAUTY BJC BTNC BH CHARAN CSR CSS CPL CPR DIGI
ECF EA EE UREKA EVER FVC FLOYD FN FC FSMART
GIFT GREEN IFEC ILINK J JMART JMT JUTHA KYE KTECH
LVT LALIN LEE LTX MK MJD MATCH MATI MEGA MIDA
ML MILL NCH NDR NCL NTV NPPG NUSA PACE PAF
PIMO ROCK ROH RPC SAMCO SANKO 7UP GLOBAL SR SINGER
SPPT SMART SPCG SYMC TEAM TMI THAI TBSP TSI TSE
TSTE TTI PRO SAUCE ERW IEC THE TIC TRT TTW
TVT UNIQ UPA VNG VIBHA WAVE WIN
Companies participating in Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition
Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC) under Thai Institute of Directors
(as of Oct 16, 2019)
Industry Group
www.poems.in.th
PhillipResearch PhillipCapitalTH 02 635 1700 #486
Name Sector Name Sector Index
Agro & Food Industry[AGRO] Agribus iness AGRI
Food & Beverage FOOD
Consumer Products[CONSUMP] Fashion FASHION
Home & Office Products HOME
Personal Products & Pharmaceutica ls PERSON
Financia ls [FINCIAL] Banking BANK
Finance & Securi ties FIN
Insurance INSUR
Industria ls [INDUS] Automotive AUTO
Industria l Materia ls & Machinery IMM
Packaging PKG
Paper & Printing Materia ls PAPER
Petrochemicals & Chemicals PETRO
Steel STEEL
Property & Construction[PROPCON] Construction Materia ls CONMAT
Construction Services CONS
Property Development PROP
Property Fund & REITs PF&REIT
Resources [RESOURC] Energy & Uti l i ties ENERG
Mining MINE
Services [SERVICE] Commerce COMM
Media & Publ ishing MEDIA
Health Care Services HELTH
Tourism & Leisure TOURISM
Profess ional Services PROF
Transportation & Logis tics TRANS
Technology [TECH] Electronic Components ETRON
Information & Communication Technology ICT
PSR Rating SystemCapital Gain Recommendation
> 15% BUY
> 5% - 15% ACCUMULATE / TRADING BUY
> 0% - 5% NEUTRAL
0 <= SELL
Remarks
We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quanti tative return bands . We cons ider qual i tative factors l ike (but
not l imited to) a s tock's ri sk reward profi le, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of
s tock price catalysts , and speculative undertones surrounding the s tock, before making our fina l recommendation
Contact Information of Hong Kong Representatives
Research
Benny WANG
Dealing Director
(852) 2277 6720
ZHANG Jing
Research Analyst
Transportation and Automobiles
(86) 21 51699400-103
Terry LI
Research Analyst
TMT, Education and Finance
(852) 2277 6527
Sales
Eurus ZHOU
Research Analyst
Pharmaceutical and Consumer
(852) 2277 6515
Tracy KU
Research Analyst
Retail and Property
(852) 2277 6516
Aric AU Yoshikazu SHIKITA
Manager, Corporate & Institutional Sales Manager, International Sales
(852) 2277 6783 (852) 2277 6624
PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS
Total Return Recommendation Rating Remarks
> +20% Buy 1 >20% upside from the current price
+5% to +20% Accumulate 2 +5% to +20% upside from the current price
-5% to +5% Neutral 3 Trade within +/- 5% from the current price
-5% to -20% Reduce 4 -5% to -20% downside from the current price
< -20% Sell 5 -20% downside from the current price
We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock’s risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation
GENERAL DISCLAIMER
This publication is distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited (“PSHK”), which is licensed in Hong Kong by the Securities and Futures Commission for regulated activities, including Type 4 regulated activity (advising on securities). This publication was originally prepared by analysts from our overseas affiliates. The information contained herein is based on sources that PSHK and its affiliates believe to be accurate and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions contained in this publication are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. This material is prepared for general circulation to clients and is not intended to provide tailored investment advice and does not take into account the individual financial situation and objectives of any specific
person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of any investments or securities discussed or recommended in this report. This report is not (and should not be construed as) a solicitation to act as securities broker or dealer in any jurisdiction by any person or company that is not legally permitted to carry on such business in that jurisdiction. This research report may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part or and any form or manner, without the express written consent of PSHK. Please direct any enquiries to [email protected].
Investment involves risks. For details of product risks, please view the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phiIlip.com.hk.
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