ITU-KADODigital Bridges Symposium
by George Sciadas
Busan, Korea, September 10-11, 2004
Monitoring the
Digital Divide…and beyond
An ORBICOM project
in collaboration with
- CIDA
- infoDev, World Bank
- UNESCO
and contributions from: ITU, MIMOS, UIS, Statistics Canada, NRC
Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond
● The Information Society
● ICTs for development
● The Digital Divide
● The need for a monitoring instrument
Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond
Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond
Objectiveso Quantify the Digital Divide across countries
o Monitor its evolution over time
Terms of referenceo Place emphasis on developing countries
o Policy relevance
o Broader scope than connectivity
Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond
The Conceptual Framework
The notion of Infostate
Infodensity (ICT stocks indicative of productive capacity)
ICT capital, ICT skills
Info-use (current ICT consumption flows)
ICT uptake, ICT intensity of use
o Infostates are ever-evolving and unbounded
- interplay between absolutes and relatives
Socio-economic, geopolitical and cultural environment
Economy
capital labour
ICT uptakeICT intensity of use
ICT infrastructure ICT skillsInfodensity
Info-useINFOSTATE
Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond
The Digital Divide is defined as the difference among countries’ Infostates
o Model conducive to detailed analytical linkages - impacts of policies on performance
- benchmarking, best practice, specific context, etc.
o Methodology robust for comparisons between ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’, but not intended for comparisons among top countries
Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond
The Empirical ApplicationAn indicators model
indicators: 21
countries: ranging from 192 for Networks to 139 for overall Infostate
coverage: 95%-99% of global population
years: 6 (1996-2001)
Reference year and country
2001 – data driven
Hypothetica – the average country
Planetia – the planet (viewed as one country)
Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond
Findings
o How big is the Digital Divide?
- Its magnitude is huge
- Differences between top and bottom are staggering
- With the average country at 100, in 2001,
Infostate values ranged from 231 to 5!
Infostates 2001
ChadEthiopiaMyanmarCentral African Rep.EritreaMalawiBangladeshMaliMozambiqueAngolaBurkina FasoCambodiaUgandaGuineaMadagascarSudanTanzaniaNigeriaNepalBeninGhanaYemenLao P.D.R.ZambiaCameroonDjiboutiMauritaniaPapua New GuineaKenyaPakistanSyriaGambiaCote d'IvoireIndiaTogoAlgeriaViet NamSenegalZimbabweSri LankaAlbaniaCubaGabonHondurasMoroccoIndonesiaNicaraguaMongoliaEgyptKyrgyzstanGuatemalaArmeniaParaguayBoliviaTunisiaMoldovaIran (Islamic Rep. of)GuyanaBotswanaPhilippinesChinaEl SalvadorNamibiaEcuadorSamoaGeorgiaUkraineFijiSaudi ArabiaPeruOmanThailandJordanColombiaYugoslaviaJamaicaVenezuelaPanamaRussiaRomaniaSouth AfricaBelizeTurkeyMexicoCosta RicaBulgariaLebanonKuwaitTrinidad and TobagoQatarBarbadosBrazilMauritiusLithuaniaHYPOTHETICAPLANETIAMalaysiaCroatiaLatviaPolandArgentinaUruguayChileMacauSlovak RepublicBrunei DarussalamBahrainGreeceUnited Arab EmiratesHungaryCyprusCzech RepublicEstoniaMaltaSpainItalySloveniaPortugalIsraelFranceIrelandJapanKorea (Rep. of)AustriaNew ZealandAustraliaUnited KingdomGermanySingaporeIcelandLuxembourgFinlandHongkongBelgiumNorwaySwitzerlandUnited StatesNetherlandsCanadaDenmarkSweden
2315 27 99 16958
Hypothetica = 100
E
D
C
B
A
Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond
Findings
o What are the main causes of the Digital Divide?
- All components contribute……but differ across countries and ICTs
- Generally, major causes are:
Networks, particularly newer technologies (Internet, cell phones)
Uptake – mostly PCs and Internet use
Skills - as we move to higher levels
Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond
Findings
o How is the Digital Divide evolving?
Generally closing but…
…due to middle countries catching up
…countries at the bottom- close slightly only against the top - continue to lose ground against all other countries
A (generally) closing Digital Divide
-150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200
`1996
2001
A closing Digital Divide
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Evolution of the Digital Divide between country groups
0
50
100
150
200
250
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
A-E
A-D
A-CB-E
A-BC-E
D-E
Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond
Findings
o At what speed is the Digital Divide evolving?
- at a painfully slow pace
- all things equal, it will take generations for countries at the bottom to achieve today’s Infostate levels of countries in the middle…
…which, by then, will have move upwards
Patterns of closing divides
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Mauritania
Zambia
Sudan
JordanBotswana
Argentina
Brazil
Slovak Republic
Malaysia
Hypothetica
normalizedInfostates
Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond
Findings
o What contributes most to the slow overall
closing of the Digital Divide?
Mostly the newer technologies
- Internet use
- mobile telephony
- Internet networks
2001/1996 ratios
A/E Hypothetica
Contributors to the closing Divide
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
PCs
literac
yenr
ollment
tertia
ry
wireline
TV househ
olds
res.ph
ones
Intern
et
mobile
Intern
et use
Evolution - Brazil
2001 1996 Hypothetica
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140wireline
mobile
Internet
literacy
enrollment
TV households
residential phones
PCs
Internet users
int'l telephone traffic
Evolution - Senegal
2001 1996 Hypothetica
0
20
40
60
80
100wireline
mobile
Internet
literacy
enrollment
TV households
residential phones
PCs
Internet users
int'l telephone traffic
Evolution - Estonia
2001 1996 Hypothetica
0
50
100
150
200
250
300wireline
mobile
Internet
literacy
enrollment
TV households
residential phones
PCs
Internet users
int'l telephone traffic
Evolution - Ghana
2001 1996 Hypothetica
0
20
40
60
80
100wireline
mobile
Internet
literacy
enrollment
TV households
residential phones
PCs
Internet users
int'l telephone traffic
Evolution - Ireland
2001 1996 Hypothetica
0
100
200
300
400wireline
mobile
Internet
literacy
enrollment
TV households
residential phones
PCs
Internet users
int'l telephone traffic
Macro linkages
o Correlation between Infostates and GDP
Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond
o The relationship is more complicated, though, and there are exceptions
In the 1996-2001 period, the marginal effect of an increase by one point in Infodensity is an increase of $124-$164 in per capita GDP
Infostate and per capita GDP, 2001
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
50
150
200
250
100
GDP per capita, $US, PPP
average
Infostate
- Knowledge vs. information
- Knowledge confers capacity for action
- Knowledge comes in many forms, valued differently in different cultures and times
- ICTs conducive to codified knowledge
- Mode 1 and Mode 2 knowledge
- Social dimensions in addition to personal
Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond
From Digital to Knowledge Divide
From Digital to Knowledge Divide
- Knowledge in the context of development
- Knowledge vs. knower, East vs. West, thing vs. process
- Knowledge creation
- Transferring knowledge and de-contextualization
- Local/indigenous knowledge and its integration
- Absorptive capacity is key – serious policy implications
Refers to the capability to track, understand and assimilate externally sourced knowledge
Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond
� Need to monitor progress for Tunis- continue empirical application
Monitoring the Digital Divide…and beyond
Document available at:
www.orbicom.uqam.ca
What’s next
� Intensify analytical activities- expand linkages, derive detailed insights
� Disseminate widely, solidify and expand partnerships
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