Manitoba Water Stewardship
Coping with Drought
Drought Research Initiative Workshop
Inn at the Forks, Winnipeg• • • • •• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
A.A. Warkentin
January 11-13, 2007
Annual Renewal of Water Supplies
Important Precipitation-based Parameters:
1. Soil Moisture at Freeze-Up (May-Oct. antecedent Year).
2. Snow Accumulation (November-March).
3. Spring/Early Summer Rains (April-July).
Parameter Analysis for Period 1933 – 2006 (74 years)
Mean of 9 Long-Term Stations in Southern Manitoba
Soil Moisture at Freeze-Up: Dry 19 years out of 74
Winter Precipitation: Dry 19 years out of 74
April – July Precipitation: Dry 16 years out of 74
Drought Persistence based on Parameter Analysis(Average of 9 Climate stations in Southern Manitoba)
For 19 Years when SM at Freeze-Up was Low:
Winter was Dry 5 times
Wet 5 times
Average 9 times
April – July was Dry 2 times
Wet 7 times
Average 10 times
Drought Analysis – Average of 9 Stations in Southern Manitoba
Of the 74 Years (1933 – 2006) in Southern Manitoba
None had all three parameters below 80% of average.
Following 12 years had low Parameters
1933
1934
1934
1940
1952
1961
1973
1977
1980
1988
2002
2004
Lake WinnipegosisMean Monthly Elevation
828.00
829.00
830.00
831.00
832.00
833.00
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Elev
atio
n (fe
et a
bove
sea
leve
l)
Lake WinnipegMean Monthly Elevation
711.00
712.00
713.00
714.00
715.00
716.00
717.00
718.00
719.00
Jan-
70
Jan-
72
Jan-
74
Jan-
76
Jan-
78
Jan-
80
Jan-
82
Jan-
84
Jan-
86
Jan-
88
Jan-
90
Jan-
92
Jan-
94
Jan-
96
Jan-
98
Jan-
00
Jan-
02
Jan-
04
Jan-
06
Elev
atio
n (fe
et a
bove
sea
leve
l)
Recorded
Summer Target
Lake of the WoodsMean Monthly Elevation for January
1056.00
1057.00
1058.00
1059.00
1060.00
1061.00
1062.00
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Elev
atio
n (fe
et a
bove
sea
leve
l)
Monthly Recorded
Average January (1970-2001)
Split Lake at Split LakeMean Monthly Elevation
542.00
544.00
546.00
548.00
550.00
552.00
554.00
Jan-75
Jan-77
Jan-79
Jan-81
Jan-83
Jan-85
Jan-87
Jan-89
Jan-91
Jan-93
Jan-95
Jan-97
Jan-99
Jan-01
Jan-03
Elev
atio
n (f
eet a
bove
sea
leve
l)
542.00
544.00
546.00
548.00
550.00
552.00
554.00
RecordedAveragePredicted DryPredicted Median
Red River at EmersonMean Monthly Flow for January
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1912
1917
1922
1927
1932
1937
1942
1947
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
Flow
(cfs
)
January Recorded
Average January (1970-2001)
Assiniboine River at HeadingleyMean Monthly Flow for January
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1913
1918
1923
1928
1933
1938
1943
1948
1953
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
Flow
(cfs
)
January Recorded
Average January (1970-2001)
Winnipeg River at Slave FallsMean Monthly Flow for January
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
1907
1912
1917
1922
1927
1932
1937
1942
1947
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
Flow
(cfs
)
January Recorded
Average January (1970-2001)
Grass River at Standing Stone FallsMean Monthly Flow for January
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Flow
(cfs
)
January Recorded
Normal January (1970-2001)
Lake Minnewasta near MordenDaily Average Elevation
1065.00
1070.00
1075.00
1080.00
1085.00
1090.00
Jan-
83
Jan-
84
Jan-
85
Jan-
86
Jan-
87
Jan-
88
Jan-
89
Jan-
90
Jan-
91
Jan-
92
Jan-
93
Jan-
94
Jan-
95
Jan-
96
Jan-
97
Jan-
98
Jan-
99
Jan-
00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
Jan-
04
Jan-
05
Jan-
06
Jan-
07
Elev
atio
n (fe
et a
bove
sea
leve
l)
Primary Drought Related Concerns
• Reservoir storages supplying communities.
• River levels to enable pumping for cities, towns, irrigation.
• Aquifer levels supplying communities, farms.
• Dugouts supplying water for cattle.
• Suitable lake levels for water supply, fish, recreation.
• Supplies for hydroelectric generation.
• Deterioration of Water Quality.
Primary Drought Sensitivities
• Summer reservoir operations sensitive to short intense meteorological droughts (2 – 4 weeks) within a relatively dry period.
• Multiple use reservoir operations sensitive to longer dry periods (several months to years).
• Rivers, dugouts sensitive to short droughts like 2006.
• Spring runoff very important but rest of year important also.
• Aquifers sensitive to multiple year droughts.
• Long term drought-proofing strategies sensitive to design drought (worst on record).
• Water uses sensitive to temperature.
• Water quality sensitive to flow rates, temperature and
• Historical and real time levels of rivers, lakes, reservoirs, aquifers – Water Survey of Canada, Manitoba Water Stewardship.
• Information on water uses – Manitoba Water Stewardship and licensed users.
• Precipitation Data and Statistics – Timely Climate Monitoring Network.
• Climate Outlooks – MSC and NOAA.
• Soil Moisture – Manitoba Water Stewardship, Manitoba Agriculture.
• Snowcover – Manitoba Water Stewardship, Climate Research Branch.
• Drought Indices (NADM) – PFRA.
• On-farm water supplies – Manitoba Water Services Board, PFRA, Manitoba Agriculture.
• Information on local conditions – regional staff of provincial and municipal government.
Drought Information Sources
Water Supply Conditions and Outlook for Manitoba 2004
Based on Lower Decile Precipitation from February onward
Water Branch, Manitoba Water Stewardship, February 5, 2004
• Historical Droughts, Weather.
• Soil Moisture and Snowcover Conditions
• Status / Forecast for Major Rivers, Lakes, Reservoirs Aquifers, On-Farm Water supplies
• Potential Problems within each Major Watershed.
MANITOBAWATER BRANCH
Spring Runoff Forecast For 2004With Lower Decile Precip. Feb.-April
Percent of 30 Year MedianPREPARED: DRAWN: SUBMITTED:
DATE:A.A.W. Jan. 30, 2004
Provisional Data( Subject to Revision )
SASK
ATC
HE
WA
N
U.S.A.
ONTA
RIO
LakeWinnipeg
ReindeerLake
BigSandLake
SouthernIndianLake Stephens
Lake
SplitLake
Knee Lake
GodsLake
Sipiwesk
Lake
Highrock
Lake
Wekusko
Lake
IslandLake
CedarLake
Hudson Bay
River
Nel
son Ha
yes
Rive
r
Gods
River
Church
ill
River
Winnipeg
Thompson
Dauphin
Brandon
Flin Flon
The Pas
SCALE IN MILES
025 25 50 75 100
Yorkton
Regina
Saskatoon
Swift Current
Estevan
Minot
Grand Forks
Fargo
Prince Albert
North Battleford
Vermilion
Coronation
ALB
ER
TA
Lynne Lake
MA
NIT
OB
A
MAN
ITOBA
Medicine Hat
MA
NIT
OB
A
ON
TAR
IO
La Ronge
Cree Lake
SASK
ATC
HE
WA
N
Atikokan
Kenora
Red Lake
Sandy Lake
Big Trout Lake
Lake St. Joseph
Lac Seul
Lake of the Woods
25
50
75
25
75
50
50
75
25
25
50
100
100
100
Feb. 3, 2004 Manitoba Water Stewardship
Summary of Water Supply / Spring Flood Outlook for 2004Based on Lower Decile Weather from now on.
Spring Runoff:
- Well below average most areas due to dry soil, low depression storage (flood risk is very low).
Rivers:
- most larger rivers presently at 10 – 20 year lows.- Red, Assiniboine, Churchill lower than in 2003.
- some improvement on Winnipeg River, Nelson River.
- continued water shortages for optimum hydroelectric generation.
- water quality, fishery a concern.Lakes:
- Many lakes presently at 10 – 20 year lows.- minor rise or decline expected in 2004.- water quality, recreation and fish a serious concern.
Reservoirs: (operated by Manitoba Water Stewardship)
- most reservoirs close to full after spring runoff.
- reservoirs with small drainage areas will remain low.
- could be some stress on Shellmouth Reservoir.
Aquifers:
- Most aquifers low but not as low as in early 1990’s.
- minor rise in spring likely (significant in confined aquifers).
- levels in autumn lower than in 2003 on heavily used aquifers.
- wells on smaller aquifers could run dry.
- fringe areas of major aquifers could run dry.
- continued problems at Ogilvie Aquifers.
- possible water access problems at Selkirk, Birds Hill, McCreary.
On-Farm Water Supplies:
- dugouts are very low in most areas except SE Manitoba.
- should be enough water to pump-fill most dugouts this spring.
- many shallow farm wells likely to run dry by late summer.
- water hauling will be necessary where piped water not available.
Feb. 3, 2004 Manitoba Water Stewardship
Summary of Water Supply / Spring Flood Outlook for 2004Based on Lower Decile Weather from now on.
Lake Manitoba Forecast---2004Hydrologic Forecast Centre, Jan 28, 2004
809
810
811
812
813
814
815
Mar-01
May-01
Jul-0
1
Sep-0
1
Nov-0
1
Jan-
02
Mar-02
May-02
Jul-0
2
Sep-0
2
Nov-0
2
Jan-
03
Mar-03
May-03
Jul-0
3
Sep-0
3
Nov-0
3
Jan-
04
Mar-04
May-04
Jul-0
4
Feet
abo
ve S
ea L
evel
Observed
Predicted Lower Decile
Predicted Median
Predicted Upper Decile
Summer Target (under review)
Shellmouth Reservoir Operation Scenarios---Jan. 28, 2004Hydrologic Forecast Centre, Water Branch, Manitoba Water Stewardship
Maintain 150 cfs unless Heavy Snow develops
1390
1395
1400
1405
1410Ja
n. 2
8/04
Jan.
31/
04
Feb.
14/
04
Feb.
28/
04
Mar
. 15/
04
Mar
. 31/
04
Apr.
15/0
4
Apr.
30/0
4
May
15/
04
May
31/
04
June
15/
04
Res
ervo
ir Le
vel i
n Fe
et
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Out
flow
in C
FS
Lower Decile LevelMedian LevelUpper Decile LevelTarget After Spring RunoffLower Decile OutflowMedianUpper Decile
Manitoba Water Stewardship
Uses of Drought Information• Hydrologic data is used in combination with soil moisture, precipitation, and climate statistics to prepare forecasts for rivers, reservoirs, and lakes.
• Control works operated based on forecasts and risk of drought continuing.
• Inter-Departmental Drought Committee activated when risk of water shortages is high. Plans formulated to cope with drought.
• Water conservation is undertaken – uses restricted to important needs.
• Actions such as:
- pumping to fill dugouts during spring.
- water hauling.
- deepening of wells, drilling new wells.
- using alternate sources of water.
- water rationing.
Pertinent DRI Research
• Forecasting onset of Droughts.
• Forecasting Duration of Droughts.
• Forecasting Spatial Extent of Drought.
• Forecasting Severity of Droughts.
• Statistics (probability) of various types of droughts for several time horizons e.g. 2050, 2100.
(Frequency, Duration, Extent, Severity)
• Knowledge of Causes.e.g. Less Snow, Greater Evapotranspiration, different annual time
distribution of runoff, summer dry or winter dry.
Short Term (first year):• Outline Objectives and Research Conducted.
• Ask Partners for Feedback.
• Progress Report at end of Year.
Longer Term (next 4 years):• Annual Progress Reports.
• Additional Workshop at end of 2nd Year (or as Recommended by Researchers).
• Overview of significant results as soon as available.
Manitoba Water Stewardship
How can DRI work with us?
Lake WinnipegosisMean Monthly Elevation for January
828.00
829.00
830.00
831.00
832.00
833.00
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Elev
atio
n (fe
et a
bove
sea
leve
l)
Monthly Recorded
Average January (1970-2001)
Lake WinnipegMean Monthly Elevation for January
711.00
712.00
713.00
714.00
715.00
716.00
717.00
718.00
719.00
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Elev
atio
n (fe
et a
bove
sea
leve
l)
Monthly Recorded
Average January (1970-2001)
Lake of the WoodsMean Monthly Elevation
1056.00
1057.00
1058.00
1059.00
1060.00
1061.00
1062.00
Jan-
70
Jan-
72
Jan-
74
Jan-
76
Jan-
78
Jan-
80
Jan-
82
Jan-
84
Jan-
86
Jan-
88
Jan-
90
Jan-
92
Jan-
94
Jan-
96
Jan-
98
Jan-
00
Jan-
02
Jan-
04
Jan-
06
Elev
atio
n (fe
et a
bove
sea
leve
l)
Recorded
Summer Target
Churchill River at Leaf RapidsMean Monthly Flow for January
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
Flow
(cfs
)
January Recorded
Normal January (1973-2001)