C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C EConCerns and spending intentions around the WorldQUARTER 3, 2013
2013 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES | 3RD EDITION
2 Quarter 3 2013 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report2
A CHANGING LANDSCAPEConsumer ConfidenCe improved in the u.s. and Western europe, While holding steady in most developing World markets
Global consumer confidence indexed at 94 in the third quarter, no
change from Q2 2013, and a two-point increase from the same period
last year (Q3 2012), according to consumer confidence findings from
Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and insights into what
consumers watch and buy. The Nielsen consumer confidence index
measures perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances and
immediate spending intentions.
Consumer confidence in Europe increased three index points to 74, the
biggest quarter-on-quarter increase since Q1 2010 and an improvement
from three consecutive quarters fixed at 71. Confidence in North America
increased two index points to 98, the third consecutive quarter of
increases and hit its highest level since Q3 2007. Marginal consumer
confidence increases were reported in Latin America and Middle East/
Africa, increasing one index point each to 94 and 92, respectively,
compared to Q2. Confidence in Asia-Pacific declined one index point to
104, the first regional quarter-on-quarter decline since Q2 2012.
GLOBALLY • Global consumer confidence held steady in Q3 with an index of 94
REGIONALLY• Quarterly confidence increased in all regions except Asia-Pacific
• European confidence posted biggest increase in three years
• North American and Asia-Pacific respondents were ready to spend
• Recessionary sentiment improved in advanced and troubled economies
3Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company
CONFIDENCE IMPROVED IN 57% OF MARKETSThe Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending
Intentions, established in 2005, measures consumer confidence,
major concerns and spending intentions among more than 30,000
respondents with Internet access in 60 countries. Consumer confidence
levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism
and pessimism.
In the latest round of the survey, conducted between August 14 and
September 6, 2013, consumer confidence increased in more than half
(57%) of markets measured by Nielsen, compared to less than half
(45%) in the previous quarter. Despite declining four index points,
Indonesia (120) reported the highest consumer confidence index for the
third consecutive quarter. Seven of 10 countries reporting the highest
index scores declined in the third quarter; six hailed from Asia-Pacific.
Hungary reported the lowest index of 45, but posted a four-point
increase from Q2. Portugal reported the biggest quarter-on-quarter index
increase of 22 points for a score of 55.
3Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company
ABOUT THE GLOBAL SURVEY METHODOLOGY
The findings in this survey are based on respondents
with online access across 60 countries. While an online
survey methodology allows for tremendous scale and
global reach, it provides a perspective only on the habits
of existing Internet users, not total populations. In
developing markets where online penetration has not
reached majority potential, audiences may be younger
and more affluent than the general population of that
country. Additionally, survey responses are based on
claimed behavior, rather than actual metered data.
4 Quarter 3 2013 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report
-3-6
-2+4
0-1
-1
+6
-2
+3
+2
0
-1
-1
-3
+2
+4
-2
-2
+1
-5
+2
+4+5
0+8
+4+3-3+6+1+9+1
0-1
+8+1
+5
-4
+1
+2
-1
-5
+4
+3
+2
+8
-2
-13
+8
0
+22+3
+3+1
+12
84 COLO
MBIA
84 SOU
TH AFRICA
85 TURKEY 87 UN
ITED KIN
GDO
M
87 AUSTRIA 88 ISRAEL
GREECE 48
88 MEXICO
CROATIA 48
92 GERMANY
SOUTH KOREA 54
PORTUGAL 55
94 PERU
**SERBIA 56
95 CHILE
SPAIN
56
96 AUSTRALIA
UKRAINE 59
96 NORWAY
SLOVAKIA 60
97 NEW ZEALAND
FRANCE 61
97 VIETNAM
BULGARIA 63
97 SAUDI ARABIA
POLAND 66 97 CANADAROMANIA 66 97 PAKISTAN
FINLAND 68
98 SWITZERLAND
IRELAND 69
98 UNITED STATES
CZECH REPUBLIC 72
98 SINGAPORE
ESTONIA 72
101 MALAYSIA
JAPAN 74
103 DENMARK
LATVIA 76
106 HONG KONG
TAIWAN
76
109 BRAZIL
VENEZUELA 76
110 C
HINA
NETHERLA
NDS 78
111
UNITE
D ARAB EMIR
ATES
RUSSIA
80
112
THAILA
ND
ARGE
NTI
NA
80
112
INDI
A
LITH
UAN
IA
81
118
PH
ILIP
PIN
ES
BELG
IUM
8
1SW
EDEN
82
EGYP
T
83
0
**SLOVENIA
47
-4
120
IN
DO
NES
IA
IND
EX
COU
NTR
Y
LESS
CONFIDENT
MORE CONFIDENT
+6
ITALY47
+4
HUN
GARY45
NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA EUROPE MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA, PAKISTAN ASIA-PACIFIC
94 GLOBAL
AVERAGE( 0 change from Q2-2013 )
INDEXES ABOVE 100 INDICATE OPTIMISM
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY
60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ3-2013 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
*Survey is based on respondents with Internet access. China survey results reflect a mixed
methodology. Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism.
**Serbia and Slovenia are new markets in Q3 2013.
5Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company
60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ3-2013 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
CONFIDENCE IN ADVANCED ECONOMIES IMPROVEDIn key developed economies, the United States saw consumer
confidence increase eight index points to 98 from the same period 12
months ago, its highest score in six years (Q3 2007) and nearing pre-
recession levels. Germany increased six index points year-on-year to 92.
Japan rose to an index of 74 from 59 in Q3 2012. France increased eight
points to 61 from 53 in Q2 2013, and the United Kingdom reported an
index of 87, the highest score since Q3 2007, up 10 points from Q3 2012.
While consumers in India and Brazil remain some of the most confident
in the world, confidence in these key growth economies continues to
show modest downward movement over the last few quarters. India
delivered a score of 112 for its third consecutive quarter of declines,
and confidence in Brazil declined one index point to 109. China and
Russia both held steady from Q2 2013 with index scores of 110 and 80,
respectively.
“Given the size and scale of these economies, it is encouraging to see
significant gains in consumer confidence within the United States and
Western Europe as we consider where we were last year and look ahead
to 2014,” said Dr. Venkatesh Bala, chief economist at The Cambridge
Group, a part of Nielsen. “At the same time, we have to keep modest
developing market declines in perspective. While India is significantly off
peak optimism of 131 measured three years ago in 2010, it is still one of
the largest and most confident countries in the world, and that has an
impact on the entire region.”
5Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company
6 Quarter 3 2013 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report
advanCed eConomies: Consumer ConfidenCe is reCovering
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
2005
-Q1
2005
-Q3
2006
-Q1
2006
-Q3
2007
-Q1
2007
-Q3
2008
-Q1
2008
-Q3
2009
-Q1
2009
-Q2
2009
-Q3
2009
-Q4
2010
-Q1
2010
-Q2
2010
-Q3
2010
-Q4
2011-
Q1
2011-
Q2
2011-
Q3
2011-
Q4
2012
-Q1
2012
-Q2
2012
-Q3
2012
-Q4
2013
-Q1
2013
-Q2
2013
-Q3
JAPAN FRANCEGERMANY UNITED KINGDOMUNITED STATES
BriC eConomies: Consumer ConfidenCe is sloWing
150140130120110
10090807060
2005
-Q1
2005
-Q3
2006
-Q1
2006
-Q3
2007
-Q1
2007
-Q3
2008
-Q1
2008
-Q3
2009
-Q1
2009
-Q2
2009
-Q3
2009
-Q4
2010
-Q1
2010
-Q2
2010
-Q3
2010
-Q4
2011-
Q1
2011-
Q2
2011-
Q3
2011-
Q4
2012
-Q1
2012
-Q2
2012
-Q3
2012
-Q4
2013
-Q1
2013
-Q2
2013
-Q3
CHINAINDIA RUSSIABRAZIL
* Note: Due to a Tsunami in Japan during Q1 2011, there is no data this quarter.
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence, Q3 2013 Based on respondents with online access only
7Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company
READy TO SPENDNielsen information shows that around the world, discretionary spending
intentions increased across all categories measured in the third quarter
compared to intentions from three months prior. Plans to buy new clothes
(38%), spend on holidays/vacations (38%), out-of-home entertainment
(35%) and home improvements (25%) increased 5 percentage points each
in the third quarter. Intentions to buy new technology products (29%)
increased 4 percentage points compared to Q2.
An intention to spend was most evident in Asia-Pacific and North America,
where discretionary spending intentions increased across all categories.
Plans to spend on holidays, new clothes, out-of-home entertainment, new
technology products and home improvements increased an average of 7
percentage points in the third quarter.
“In line with confidence findings, it is not surprising to see that consumers
are planning to increase their spending across all industries measured,
which will be encouraging to many retailers as they get ready for the end-
of-year holiday season,” said Dr. Bala. “However, it’s going to be a slow
climb for economic conditions in the global economy to recover, and there
is no sign of rapid expansion around the corner. Additionally, it remains
to be seen if consumer concerns potentially caused by the recent U.S.
government shutdown and debt ceiling crisis will have a lasting effect on
consumer confidence.”
8 Quarter 3 2013 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report
NEW CLOTHES
NEW TECHNOLOGYPRODUCTS
HOLIDAYS/VACATIONS
OUT-OF-HOMEENTERTAINMENT
61% 43% 31%
50% 47% 21%
62% 42% 29%
64% 28% 24%
43%45% 59%
36%35%37%
29%41%33%
46%37%56%
+5-5+7
+5+2+7
+7+9+5
+4-1+4
+11+9+3
+7+14+2
+10+10+7
+12-10+2
51%
35%
33%
48%
+3
+2
+3
035% +5
38% +5
29% +4
38% +5
Q3 2013 intentions to spend inCreased, and so did aCtions to save
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence, Q3 2013 Based on respondents with online access only
PERCENT SPENDINgSPARE CASH
PERCENT TAkINg ACTIONS TO SAvE
INDIA CHINA UNITED STATES
+ PERCENTAgE POINT CHANgE FROM Q2_+ PERCENTAgE POINT CHANgE FROM Q2_
gLOBAL AvERAgE
9Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company
SAVING, INVESTING AND PAyING DOwN DEbT wERE PRIORITIES Around the world, plans to save for the future saw buoyant increases,
with 52 percent of all respondents putting spare cash into savings, and
25 percent investing in shares of stocks and mutual funds, a quarterly
increase of 5 and 6 percentage points, respectively. Investment sentiment
increased in 57 percent of all markets measured, with marked increases
and a return to pre-recession levels in China (56%), India (34%) and
the United States (14%), up 14, 9 and 7 percentage points, respectively,
compared to Q2.
Paying off debts, credit cards and loans was the priority for 28 percent of
all respondents, an increase from 25 percent in the second quarter. Four-
in-10 (38%) North Americans said they intend to pay off debts, a quarterly
increase of 7 percentage points. One-third (34%) of Latin American
respondents focused on debt reduction, a decline of 3 percentage points
compared to Q2. One-fourth of Asia-Pacific (25%) and Europe (26%)
respondents, and one-fifth (18%) of Middle East/Africa respondents
planned to reduce their outstanding bills in the third quarter.
Saving for retirement was most pronounced in Asia-Pacific (20%) and
North America (16%), reporting quarterly increases of 6 and 5 percentage
points, respectively. Respondents in China (25%) and India (27%)
exceeded the regional average for planning ahead for their golden years,
reporting increases of 10 and 8 percentage points, respectively, compared
to three months ago.
10 Quarter 3 2013 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence, Q3 2013 Based on respondents with online access only
saving, investing and planning for retirement Were groWing priorities
PERCENT SPENDINg SPARE CASH(CIRCLES DENOTE PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q2)
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
2005
-Q1
2005
-Q3
2006
-Q1
2006
-Q3
2007
-Q1
2007
-Q3
2008
-Q1
2008
-Q3
2009
-Q1
2009
-Q2
2009
-Q3
2009
-Q4
2010
-Q1
2010
-Q2
2010
-Q3
2010
-Q4
2011-
Q1
2011-
Q2
2011-
Q3
2011-
Q4
2012
-Q1
2012
-Q2
2012
-Q3
2012
-Q4
2013
-Q1
2013
-Q2
2013
-Q3
GLOBALCHINA INDIA UNITED STATES
INvESTMENT SENTIMENT BRIgHTENED IN Q3
+3 14% | Global Average
+10 25% | China
+8 27% | India
+6 16% | United States
RETIREMENT FUND
+5 52% | Global Average
+10 71% | China
+13 66% | India
+4 43% | United States
SAvINgS
+6 25% | Global Average
+14 56% | China
+9 34% | India
+7 14% | United States
INvESTINg IN SHARES OFSTOCk/MUTUAL FUNDS
+3 28% | Global Average
+7 27% | China
+7 32% | India
+8 38% | United States
PAYINg OFF DEBTS, CREDIT CARDS, LOANS
Percent utilizing spare cash for investing in shares of stock/mutual funds
11Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company
RECESSION STILL ON THE MINDS OF MANy More than half (58%) of global respondents believed they were still in
a recession in the third quarter, a three-point quarterly increase, but a
four-point decline from 12 months ago.
Recessionary-sentiment improvements were reported in key economies
with year-over-year, double-digit declines. The United Kingdom
measured a decline of 18 percentage points to 74 percent, the United
States declined 13 points to 68 percent, Germany decreased 12 points to
46 percent, and China, declined 13 points to 26 percent.
While the overwhelming majority of respondents in Italy (97%), Ireland
(93%), Greece (90%), Spain (89%) and Portugal (88%) still felt
mired in recession, each reported improvements. Portugal reported
a recessionary sentiment decline of 9 percentage points in the third
quarter from a three-year average at 97 percent, and Spain declined 5
percentage points quarterly from a three-year average at 92 percent.
Conversely, double-digit quarterly recessionary sentiment increases
were reported in India, Brazil and Indonesia. Three-quarters of Indian
respondents (76%) said they were in a recession in the third quarter, an
increase of 25 percentage points from Q2. More than half of Brazilians
(55%) felt mired in recession, a rise of 14 percentage points, and 65
percent of Indonesians believed they were in recession, an increase of
11 percentage points.
12 Quarter 3 2013 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report
2013
UNITED KINGDOM
HONG KONG
LITHUANIA
UNITED STATESCHINA
NEW ZEALAND
GERMANY
74% 92%
43% 60%
57% 70%
68% 81%
26% 39%53% 65%
46% 58%
2012 PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q3 2012 TO Q3 2013 100%
-18
-17
-13
-13
-13-12
-12
Q3
DENMARK
PORTUGAL
FRANCE
AUSTRIABELGIUM
UNITED KINGDOM
LITHUANIA
48% 57%
88% 97%
84% 92%
49% 57%
74% 82%74% 81%
57% 63%
Q2 PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q2 TO Q3 2013 100%
-9
-9
-8
-8
-8-7
-6
ARGENTINA 76% 81% -5
SPAIN 89% 94% -5
Q3
JAPAN
INDIA
LATVIA
BRAZILTHAILAND
PERU
INDONESIA
74% 37%
76% 51%
60% 45%
55% 41%
79% 66%45% 33%
65% 54%
Q2 PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q2 TO Q3 2013 100%
+37
+25
+15
+14
+13+12
+11
SOUTH AFRICA 77% 67% +10
2013
UNITED KINGDOM
HONG KONG
LITHUANIA
UNITED STATESCHINA
NEW ZEALAND
GERMANY
74% 92%
43% 60%
57% 70%
68% 81%
26% 39%53% 65%
46% 58%
2012 PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q3 2012 TO Q3 2013 100%
-18
-17
-13
-13
-13-12
-12
Q3
DENMARK
PORTUGAL
FRANCE
AUSTRIABELGIUM
UNITED KINGDOM
LITHUANIA
48% 57%
88% 97%
84% 92%
49% 57%
74% 82%74% 81%
57% 63%
Q2 PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q2 TO Q3 2013 100%
-9
-9
-8
-8
-8-7
-6
ARGENTINA 76% 81% -5
SPAIN 89% 94% -5
Q3
JAPAN
INDIA
LATVIA
BRAZILTHAILAND
PERU
INDONESIA
74% 37%
76% 51%
60% 45%
55% 41%
79% 66%45% 33%
65% 54%
Q2 PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q2 TO Q3 2013 100%
+37
+25
+15
+14
+13+12
+11
SOUTH AFRICA 77% 67% +10
2013
UNITED KINGDOM
HONG KONG
LITHUANIA
UNITED STATESCHINA
NEW ZEALAND
GERMANY
74% 92%
43% 60%
57% 70%
68% 81%
26% 39%53% 65%
46% 58%
2012 PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q3 2012 TO Q3 2013 100%
-18
-17
-13
-13
-13-12
-12
Q3
DENMARK
PORTUGAL
FRANCE
AUSTRIABELGIUM
UNITED KINGDOM
LITHUANIA
48% 57%
88% 97%
84% 92%
49% 57%
74% 82%74% 81%
57% 63%
Q2 PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q2 TO Q3 2013 100%
-9
-9
-8
-8
-8-7
-6
ARGENTINA 76% 81% -5
SPAIN 89% 94% -5
Q3
JAPAN
INDIA
LATVIA
BRAZILTHAILAND
PERU
INDONESIA
74% 37%
76% 51%
60% 45%
55% 41%
79% 66%45% 33%
65% 54%
Q2 PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q2 TO Q3 2013 100%
+37
+25
+15
+14
+13+12
+11
SOUTH AFRICA 77% 67% +10
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence, Q3 2013 Based on respondents with online access only
PERCENT BELIEvINg THEY ARE IN A RECESSION
PERCENT BELIEvINg THEY ARE IN A RECESSION
PERCENT BELIEvINg THEY ARE IN A RECESSION
Biggest improvement in year-over-year reCessionary sentiment
Biggest improvement in Quarterly reCessionary sentiment
Biggest Worsening reCessionary sentiment
13Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company
POSITIVE CONFIDENCE MOMENTUM CONTINUES IN THE U.S.; CANADA DECLINESConsumer confidence in the United States increased steadily over the past
three quarters from an index of 89 in the fourth quarter of 2012 to 98 in the
third quarter of this year. Conversely, confidence in Canada reported the
opposite trend, measuring two consecutive quarters of declines, from an
index of 102 in Q1 to 98 in Q2 to 97 in Q3.
North America led the strongest regional quarterly increases for optimistic
perceptions about local job prospects (47%), personal finances (58%) and
a good time to buy (43%), rising 5, 4 and 2 percentage points, respectively,
compared to the second quarter, driven by improvements in the United
States. In Canada, the outlook for job prospects and plans to spend
declined by 1 percentage point each, and personal finances held steady
compared to the second quarter.
The growing positive sentiment in the Unites States was reflected in
American’s increased spending intentions. Home improvement projects
reported the biggest quarterly increase of 8 percentage points to 24 percent
in the third quarter. Plans to take holidays and vacations also measured a
7-point increase to 29 percent. Spending intentions for new clothes (31%),
out-of-home entertainment (24%) and new technology products (21%)
reported quarterly increases of 3, 2 and 2 percentage points, respectively.
“With U.S. inflation in check, confidence is now at the highest levels since
2007 giving consumers enough tailwinds to keep momentum moving
forward, which may bode well for the upcoming holiday season,” said
James Russo, senior vice president, Global Consumer Insights, Nielsen.
“Fast-moving consumer goods dollar sales are up 2.1 percent year to date,
and unit sales reversed a negative trend, now up 0.4 percent. However,
residual effects from the government shutdown, debt ceiling, an uneven
recovery, and the overall uncertainty that permeates the consumer mindset
will likely curtail robust gains in sales.”
14 Quarter 3 2013 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence, Q3 2013 Based on respondents with online access only
CANADA UNITED STATES
loCal JoB prospeCts
personal finanCes
time to Buy
46%
58%
44%
50%
56%
41%
sentiment for JoBs, finanCes and shopping Were positive in the u.s.
PERCENT SAYINg gOOD/EXCELLENT IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS
+5
+4
+2
-1
0
-1
CANADA UNITED STATES
PERCENTAgE POINT CHANgE FROM Q2 2013
PERCENTAgE POINT CHANgE FROM
Q2 2013
15Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company
RECESSION-bATTERED EUROPE SHOwED SIGNS OF RECOVERyConsumer confidence index scores were highest in Denmark
(103), Switzerland (98), Norway (96) and Germany (92), and most
improved in Portugal (55), Belgium (81), United Kingdom (87),
France (61), Spain (56) and Italy (47), compared to Q2.
“German consumers were optimistic in the third quarter, which was
noteworthy given the survey was fielded during the phase of election
campaigns where cost-critical topics such as tax increases, the
rescue of the euro, and energy costs may have played an important
role,” said Ingo Shier, managing director, Nielsen Germany. “Rather
than take a pessimistic view of the future, it appears that Germans
remained somewhat unaffected by the political environment as
fundamental economic data were likely perceived as robust. As
the development of coalition talks continue, however, consumer
confidence sentiment will be closely monitored.”
Seventy percent of European markets reported consumer confidence
increases in the third quarter as improvements across all confidence
indicators showed positive, albeit marginal, regional momentum.
Positive perceptions about local job prospects (26%), personal
finances (36%) and a good time to buy (29%) increased 2, 1 and 2
percentage points, respectively, compared to the second quarter.
On average, European discretionary spending intentions for new
clothes, holiday/vacations, out-of-home entertainment, home
improvements and new technology products reported marginal
improvements in the third quarter, which were aligned with a slight
retraction in strategies taken to save across these categories.
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence, Q3 2013 Based on respondents with online access only * Slovenia and Serbia were not included in Q2 2013
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IMpROvED IN 70% OF EUROpEAN COUNTRIES MEASURED
+22 55 | Portugal
+9 81 | Belgium
+8 87 | United Kingdom
+8 61 | France
+8 56 | Spain
+6 103 | Denmark
+6 47 | Italy
+5 88 | Israel
+5 76 | Latvia
+4 85 | Turkey
+4 66 | Romania
+4 45 | Hungary
+3 66 | Poland
+3 48 | Croatia
+2 92 | Germany
+2 72 | Czech Republic
+2 63 | Bulgaria
+1 82 | Sweden
+1 81 | Lithuania
+1 72 | Estonia
+1 48 | Greece
0 98 | Switzerland
0 87 | Austria
0 80 | Russia
-1 78 | Netherlands
-1 69 | Ireland
-2 96 | Norway
-2 60 | Slovakia
-5 68 | Finland
-13 59 | Ukraine
47 | Slovenia
56 | Serbia
Q3 INDEX(CIRCLES DENOTE PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q2)
*
*
16 Quarter 3 2013 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report
Good news was reported among Europe’s most troubled economies,
with consumer confidence increases in Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece
and Spain. In addition to Portugal’s double-digit confidence boost of
22 index points, other hard-hit austerity markets showed increased
optimism. Spain’s index increased eight points to 56, Italy rose six
points to 47, and Greece inched up one point to 48. Despite a one-point
quarterly confidence decline in Ireland, an index score of 69 was a three-
point improvement from one year ago.
“In Portugal, second quarter GDP results reported an improvement
after 10 consecutive quarters of declines, which has likely ushered some
confidence back to consumers,” said Gustavo Nunez, market leader,
Nielsen Iberia. “But while recent employment figures, which have
improved after two years of declines, have possibly elevated consumer
sentiment, discussion about a second rescue and the potential for new
austerity measures may impact this optimism.”
trouBled eConomies: Consumer ConfidenCe is improving
120110
1009080706050403020
2005
-Q1
2005
-Q3
2006
-Q1
2006
-Q3
2007
-Q1
2007
-Q3
2008
-Q1
2008
-Q3
2009
-Q1
2009
-Q3
2010
-Q1
2010
-Q3
2010
-Q4
2011-
Q1
2011-
Q2
2011-
Q3
2011-
Q4
2012
-Q1
2012
-Q2
2012
-Q3
2012
-Q4
2013
-Q1
2013
-Q2
2013
-Q3
GREECEIRELAND ITALYPORTUGALSPAIN
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence, Q2 2013 Based on respondents with online access only.
17Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN ASIA-PACIFIC DECLINED, bUT INTENTIONS TO SPEND INCREASEDOverall consumer confidence in Asia-Pacific took a negative turn in the
third quarter, declining one index point regionally to 104, which was the
highest index of the five regions. Eight of the 14 countries measured in the
region posted a consumer confidence index decline, with India (112), Japan
(74) and Indonesia (120) decreasing most with declines of six, four and
four points, respectively, compared to Q2. China’s index of 110 held steady
from the second quarter.
The outlook for job prospects and personal finances declined in half of
the Asia-Pacific markets measured. The steepest job prospect quarterly
declines were reported in India and Japan, declining 10 and 8 percentage
points, respectively. Perceptions of personal finances declined most in
India and Indonesia, with declines of 4 percentage points each, compared
to Q2. More Asia-Pacific respondents felt mired in a recession (47%) in the
third quarter, an increase of 7 percentage points compared to Q2.
While respondents in the region were cautious about future job prospects
and personal finances, their intentions to spend on discretionary
indulgences were more optimistic. Half of regional respondents planned to
spend on holidays/vacations (50%), new clothes (46%) and out-of-home
entertainment (45%), up 7 percentage points each from Q2. Spending on
new technology (40%) and home improvements (30%) increased 6 and 7
percentage points, respectively. Increased spending intentions in India and
China exceeded the regional average for all categories.
“The devaluation of the Indian rupee, the decreasing GDP, and negative
news coverage on the economy has most probably contributed vastly to
the low levels of confidence for consumers in India in the third quarter,”
said Piyush Mathur, president, Nielsen India. “However, consumers are
still willing to spend more in the festival season. Festival time involves high
consumption on travel, gifts, new clothes and entertaining.”
18 Quarter 3 2013 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report
“Although consumers are acutely aware of the economic pressures,
manufacturers and retailers activate deals and discounts during this
festive time period to give consumers more value for the money, which
helps to ease their spending concerns,” continued Mathur.
“The combination of the Chinese government’s domestic consumption-
led growth strategy, and the continued recovery and growth of the
U.S. economy, China’s largest export market, has likely contributed to
the optimism among Chinese consumers,” said Yan Xuan, president,
Nielsen Greater China. “Looking to the future, we believe stepped up
expansion by both multi-national and local Chinese companies into
lower tier cities and the rural markets will further bolster consumer
confidence levels in these parts of the country.”
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence, Q3 2013 Based on respondents with online access only
Consumer ConfidenCe deClined in 57% of asia-paCifiC Countries measured
Q3 2013 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX(CIRCLES DENOTE PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q2)
INDIA
INDONESIA
JAPAN
PHILIPPINES
MALAYSIA
THAILAND
AUSTRALIA
HONg kONg
CHINA
NEw ZEALAND
SINgAPORE
SOUTH kOREA
vIETNAM
TAIwAN
112
74
120
118
96
101
112
106
110
76
54
98
97
97
+1
+2
+3
+3
+4
-1
-2
-2
-2
-3
-4
-4
-6
0
MALAYSIAINCREASEDECREASE NO CHANgE
19Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company
Q3 2013 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX(CIRCLES DENOTE PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q2)
LATIN AMERICANS SHOwED EAGERNESS TO SPEND Consumer confidence in Latin America increased one index point in
the third quarter to a score of 94. Brazil led the region with the highest
index of 109, which decreased for the second consecutive quarter with a
one point decline compared to Q2. The biggest quarter-on-quarter index
increases were reported in Argentina (80) and Venezuela (76), which
increased 12 and eight index points, respectively. Consumer confidence
in Mexico (88) and Chile (95) increased four and one index point(s),
respectively in the third quarter. Peru (94) and Colombia (84) declined
five and three index points, respectively.
“In Brazil, inflation pressure remains high and GDP growth remains low,
which is likely eroding consumer confidence,” said Eduardo Ragasol,
country manager, Nielsen Brazil. “Riots and demonstrations are the
most visible result of the stressful situation lived by many low- and
medium-income consumers who are feeling the pressure of past debts
and price increases.”
“In Argentina, the surge in consumer confidence is attributed to a
series of government measures launched to activate consumption,” said
Martha Lucia Giraldo, country manager, Nielsen Argentina. “In essence,
employees are now paying less taxes and retirees are getting more
income. This action affected a significant percentage of employees who
have benefited from the increased purchasing power. And it is evident at
retail—according to Nielsen shopping basket trends, retail consumption
has grown 6.8 percent in the year ending July 2013.”
Regionally, discretionary spending increases were reported across most
spending categories measured. Spending plans for new clothes (29%)
increased four percentage points, and intent to spend on out-of-home
entertainment (30%) and holidays/vacations (20%) increased by 3
percentage points each compared to Q2. Spending on new technology
(19%) and home improvement projects (18%) inched up by 1 percentage
point each.
MALAYSIAQ2 2013 Q3 2013
PERCENT UTILIZINg SPARE CASH AFTER COvERINg ESSENTIAL LIvINg EXPENSES
disCretionary spending inCreased in latin ameriCa
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence, Q3 2013 Based on respondents with online access only
OUT-OF-HOMEENTERTAINMENT
27%
30%
25%
29%
17%
20%
18%
19%
17%
18%
NEW CLOTHES
27%
30%
25%
29%
17%
20%
18%
19%
17%
18%
HOLIDAYS/vACATIONS
27%
30%
25%
29%
17%
20%
18%
19%
17%
18%
NEW TECHNOLOGY pRODUCTS
27%
30%
25%
29%
17%
20%
18%
19%
17%
18%
HOME IMpROvEMENTS/DECORATING
27%
30%
25%
29%
17%
20%
18%
19%
17%
18%
20 Quarter 3 2013 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report
97
97
83
84
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
Consumer ConfidenCe inCreased in 3 of 5 middle
east/afriCa Countries measured
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE HELD STEADy IN THE MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA REGIONConsumer confidence increased in three of five Middle East/Africa
markets, increasing the regional average by one index point in the third
quarter to 92. Egypt (83) reported the biggest three-month increase
of six index points, followed by a rise of four points in United Arab
Emirates (111), and three points in South Africa (84). Confidence
declines were reported in Saudi Arabia (97) and Pakistan (97), which
declined three and one point(s), respectively.
“Drastic changes over the past three years in Egypt have impacted the
pockets of Egyptians,” said Tamer Elaraby, managing director, Nielsen
Egypt. “After the revolution in January 2011, there was a spending
slow down due to job losses and a lack of clarity amid the tumultuous
environment. Despite the scarcity of jobs and low wages, however,
Egyptians are optimistic by nature and are hopeful that a new regime
will bring them social justice and freedom, which is likely translating to
improved consumer confidence results reported in the third quarter.”
Discretionary spending intentions increased marginally in the third
quarter, with plans to buy new clothes (27%) increasing most by
3 percentage points, compared to Q2. Spending on out-of-home
entertainment (22%) and new technology (19%) increased 2 percentage
points each. Plans to take holidays/vacations (17%) and conduct home
improvements projects (16%) declined 1 percentage point each.
+6
+4
+3
-3
-1
EgYPT
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
SAUDI ARABIA
SOUTH AFRICA
PAkISTAN
111
MALAYSIAINCREASE FROM Q2 2013
DECREASE FROM Q2 2013
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence, Q3 2013 Based on respondents with online access only
21Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company
Source: Internet World Stats, June 30, 2012
MARKET INTERNET pENETRATION
ARGENTINA 66%
AUSTRALIA 89%
AUSTRIA 80%
BELGIUM 81%
BRAZIL 46%
BULGARIA 51%
CANADA 83%
CHILE 59%
CHINA 40%
COLOMBIA 60%
CROATIA 71%
CZECH REPUBLIC 73%
DENMARK 90%
EGYPT 36%
ESTONIA 78%
FINLAND 89%
FRANCE 80%
GERMANY 83%
GREECE 53%
HONG KONG 75%
HUNGARY 65%
INDIA 11%
INDONESIA 22%
IRELAND 77%
ISRAEL 70%
ITALY 58%
JAPAN 80%
LATVIA 72%
LITHUANIA 65%
MARKET INTERNET pENETRATION
MALAYSIA 61%
MEXICO 37%
NETHERLANDS 93%
NEW ZEALAND 88%
NORWAY 97%
PAKISTAN 15%
PERU 37%
PHILIPPINES 32%
POLAND 65%
PORTUGAL 55%
ROMANIA 44%
RUSSIA 48%
SAUDI ARABIA 49%
SINGAPORE 75%
SLOVAKIA 79%
SOUTH AFRICA 17%
SOUTH KOREA 83%
SPAIN 67%
SWEDEN 93%
SWITZERLAND 82%
TAIWAN 75%
THAILAND 30%
TURKEY 46%
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 71%
UNITED KINGDOM 84%
UKRAINE 34%
UNITED STATES 78%
VENEZUELA 41%
VIETNAM 34%
22 Quarter 3 2013 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report
AbOUT THE NIELSEN GLObAL SURVEy The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending
Intentions was conducted between August 14 and September 6, 213 and
polled more than 30,000 online consumers in 60 countries throughout
Asia-Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa and North
America. The sample has quotas based on age and sex for each country
based on their Internet users, and is weighted to be representative of
Internet consumers and has a maximum margin of error of ±0.6%.
This Nielsen survey is based on the behavior of respondents with
online access only. Internet penetration rates vary by country. Nielsen
uses a minimum reporting standard of 60 percent Internet penetration
or 10M online population for survey inclusion. The China Consumer
Confidence Index is compiled from a separate mixed methodology
survey among 3,500 respondents in China. The Nielsen Global Survey,
which includes the Global Consumer Confidence Index, was established
in 2005.
ABOUT NIELSEN Nielsen Holdings N.V. (NYSE: NLSN) is a global information and
measurement company with leading market positions in marketing
and consumer information, television and other media measurement,
online intelligence, mobile measurement. Nielsen has a presence in
approximately 100 countries, with headquarters in New York, USA and
Diemen, the Netherlands.
For more information, visit www.nielsen.com.
Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company. All rights reserved. Nielsen and
the Nielsen logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of CZT/ACN
Trademarks, L.L.C. Other product and service names are trademarks or
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