COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE
Planning and Land Development Regulation Board Workshop
January 9, 2010
UPDATE OF THE COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Update of Planning Horizon & City Update of Planning Horizon & City BoundariesBoundaries Update from 2020 to 2035Update from 2020 to 2035 Update Best Available Data Update Best Available Data Update affected policiesUpdate affected policies
Requirements of Senate Bill 697 Requirements of Senate Bill 697 (Energy-Efficiency and Greenhouse (Energy-Efficiency and Greenhouse Gas Reduction)Gas Reduction)
Update City BoundariesUpdate City Boundaries Creation of Northwest Corridor Overlay Creation of Northwest Corridor Overlay
Area (NCOA)Area (NCOA)
FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS
Data UsedData Used Bureau of Economic And Business Bureau of Economic And Business
Research (BEBR) Population Projections Research (BEBR) Population Projections to 2035 (Medium Series Projections)to 2035 (Medium Series Projections) Note that DCA has advised that High Series Note that DCA has advised that High Series
Projections will not be acceptedProjections will not be accepted Historic City growth as a share of Historic City growth as a share of
County growth.County growth.
BEBR 2035 Medium Series Projections BEBR 2035 Medium Series Projections (County Population Projection)(County Population Projection) BEBR is conservative in terms of long-term BEBR is conservative in terms of long-term
planning horizons.planning horizons. BEBR historically has undercounted growth in BEBR historically has undercounted growth in
Flagler County. Flagler County.
City Population Projection (Share of County City Population Projection (Share of County Population Growth)- Factors to ConsiderPopulation Growth)- Factors to Consider Historic trends of City capture of County Historic trends of City capture of County
PopulationPopulation Sufficiency of land use allocation and infrastructureSufficiency of land use allocation and infrastructure Continuation of trend is consistent with vision and Continuation of trend is consistent with vision and
policy direction of Comprehensive Plan.policy direction of Comprehensive Plan.
FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS
Historic Trend AnalysisHistoric Trend Analysis BEBRBEBR Estimated City Share of Growth Estimated City Share of Growth
Year 2000 Population
Year 2008 Population (BEBR)
Difference
City of City of Palm CoastPalm Coast
32,73232,732 73,91073,910 41,17841,178
Flagler Flagler CountyCounty
49,38249,382 94,91094,910 45,06945,069
Percentage Share of GrowthPercentage Share of Growth 91.4%91.4%
FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS
Historic Trend AnalysisHistoric Trend Analysis CensusCensus Estimated City Share of Growth Estimated City Share of Growth
Year 2000 Population
Year 2008 Population (Census)
Difference
City of City of Palm CoastPalm Coast
32,73232,732 72,31672,316 39,58439,584
Flagler Flagler CountyCounty
49,38249,382 91,24791,247 41,41541,415
Percentage Share of GrowthPercentage Share of Growth 95.6%95.6%
FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS
Historic Trend AnalysisHistoric Trend Analysis Cumulative Share of Countywide PopulationCumulative Share of Countywide Population City’s share has historically increased since 2000 City’s share has historically increased since 2000
CensusCensus
Estimate Date Flagler County Countywide Population
Palm Coast Population
Palm Coast Cumulative Share of Countywide Population
Apr-00 49832 32732 65.68%
Apr-01 53061 35443 66.80%
Apr-02 56785 38348 67.53%
Apr-03 61541 42850 69.63%
Apr-04 69683 50484 72.45%
Apr-05 78617 58216 74.05%
Apr-06 89075 67832 76.15%
Apr-07 93568 70376 75.21%
Apr-08 95512 74590 78.09%
Apr-09 94901 73910 77.88%
Average Annual Increase in Share 1.36%
FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS
Population ProjectionsPopulation Projections Various Techniques used to project future city share.Various Techniques used to project future city share.
Linear Regression of City share percentagesLinear Regression of City share percentages BEBR Shift-share method (increase based on average annual increase during base period – 1.36%)BEBR Shift-share method (increase based on average annual increase during base period – 1.36%) BEBR Share of Growth (City’s share of growth based on share of growth during base period – 91.4%)BEBR Share of Growth (City’s share of growth based on share of growth during base period – 91.4%) Logistic regression (share is capped at a future level and equation adjusts growth rate in share to conform to cap)Logistic regression (share is capped at a future level and equation adjusts growth rate in share to conform to cap)
All methods project City’s share to increase over time.All methods project City’s share to increase over time.
FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS
FINDINGS—POPULATION PROJECTIONFINDINGS—POPULATION PROJECTION Using the most conservative projection, BEBR Share of Using the most conservative projection, BEBR Share of
Growth, City’s population share will be 85% in 2035.Growth, City’s population share will be 85% in 2035. Other projections used indicate it occurring much soonerOther projections used indicate it occurring much sooner
Extrapolation Target Year Palm Coast Share of Countywide Growth
Linear Regression 2013 85.15%
BEBR Shift Share 2015 86.0%
BEBR Share of Growth 20152035
80.3%84.9%
Logistic 20152035
82.9%85% (capped)
FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS
FINDINGS—POPULATION PROJECTIONFINDINGS—POPULATION PROJECTION 2035 Population is 168,1122035 Population is 168,112 2035 County Population is 198,0002035 County Population is 198,000 City share of Population is 84.9%City share of Population is 84.9%
2015 2035 2025 2030 2035
Flagler County 115,600 137,500 158,700 178,900 198,000
Palm Coast 92,822 112,831 132,201 150,657 168,112
Cumulative Share of Countywide Population
80.3% 82.1% 83.3% 84.2% 84.9%
FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS
POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS (Since 2000)POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS (Since 2000) Average Household SizeAverage Household Size has remained virtually unchanged (-.02 to 2.36 persons per household) has remained virtually unchanged (-.02 to 2.36 persons per household)
State Household Size has increased slightly +.05 to 2.51State Household Size has increased slightly +.05 to 2.51
Median AgeMedian Age has decreased by 10 years to median age of 41 has decreased by 10 years to median age of 41
Age Cohorts Age Cohorts as percentage of populationas percentage of population 20-35 (+10% to 21%)20-35 (+10% to 21%) 35-65 (-3% to 35%)35-65 (-3% to 35%) 65-85 (-10% to 22%)65-85 (-10% to 22%)
FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS
EMPLOYMENT AND INCOMEEMPLOYMENT AND INCOME
Labor force has increased as share of population (+10% to 55.6%)Labor force has increased as share of population (+10% to 55.6%)
Median Household Income increased by 12.2% to $46,646, however, state has increased Median Household Income increased by 12.2% to $46,646, however, state has increased by 25.2% to $48,637.by 25.2% to $48,637.
FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS
RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDSRESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS Factors affecting land use needs:Factors affecting land use needs:
Underestimate of population through 2035Underestimate of population through 2035 Extent vacant lands develop below maximum allowable densities due to market conditions, regulatory constraints, Extent vacant lands develop below maximum allowable densities due to market conditions, regulatory constraints,
infrastructure limitationsinfrastructure limitations Extent to which landowners do not pursue development of their lands during planning timeframeExtent to which landowners do not pursue development of their lands during planning timeframe Extent platted lots are passed over due to changing demographics and market preferencesExtent platted lots are passed over due to changing demographics and market preferences
FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS
RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS - DEMANDRESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS - DEMAND Variables in projection:Variables in projection:
Population ProjectionsPopulation Projections Persons per household (2.38 from Census)Persons per household (2.38 from Census) Vacancy RateVacancy Rate
ACS does not indicate whether vacancy has increased from recession or increase in secondary home use.ACS does not indicate whether vacancy has increased from recession or increase in secondary home use. Analysis will use historic vacancy rate of 12% (In 2000 City vacancy rate was 9%, in 2008 - 16%)Analysis will use historic vacancy rate of 12% (In 2000 City vacancy rate was 9%, in 2008 - 16%)
2035 Projected Population2035 Projected Population 168,112168,112
2009-2035 Net Projected 2009-2035 Net Projected Population GrowthPopulation Growth
168,112 – 73,910 = 168,112 – 73,910 = 94,20294,202
2009-2035 Net Projected 2009-2035 Net Projected HouseholdsHouseholds
94,202/2.38 = 39,581 94,202/2.38 = 39,581 householdshouseholds
2009-2035 Net Projected 2009-2035 Net Projected Dwelling UnitsDwelling Units
39,581/.87 = 45,49539,581/.87 = 45,495
FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS
2035 Projected Population2035 Projected Population 168,112168,112
2009-2035 Net Projected 2009-2035 Net Projected Population GrowthPopulation Growth
168,112 – 73,910 = 168,112 – 73,910 = 94,20294,202
2009-2035 Net Projected 2009-2035 Net Projected HouseholdsHouseholds
94,202/2.38 = 39,581 94,202/2.38 = 39,581 householdshouseholds
2009-2035 Net Projected 2009-2035 Net Projected Dwelling UnitsDwelling Units
39,581/.87 = 45,49539,581/.87 = 45,495
FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS
Projected Needs for Dwelling Units
RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS - SUPPLYRESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS - SUPPLY
Vacant Vacant
Acreage
Vacant Residential
Acreage Max.
Density Max.
Capacity
Greenbelt
1,605
1,605
1.00 1,605
Mixed Use
2,424 485
10.31 4,998
Residential 695 695
9.00 6,255
Residential (Platted)
4,301
4,301
4.00
17,204
AGRICULTURE TIMBERLANDS
10,068
10,068
0.20 2,014 RESIDENTIAL LOW DENSITY RURAL ESTATE 693 693
1.00 693
DRI SR 100 DRI 673 2,411 Grand Haven DRI 197 382
Palm Coast Park DRI
4,671 3,600
Town Center DRI
1,353 2,500
Total 31,380 25,054
41,662 Neoga DRI Net Increase 5,635 Old Brick Township Net Increase 3,230 Bulow Amendment Net Increase 2,371
Total Residential Supply 54,254
FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS
RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS – ADJUSTMENTSRESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS – ADJUSTMENTS
DCA recommends a DCA recommends a multiplier of 1.25multiplier of 1.25
Multiplier is amount of land use allocation over projected demand in order to respond to supply Multiplier is amount of land use allocation over projected demand in order to respond to supply factors (building less than maximum density, delays in development, etc.)factors (building less than maximum density, delays in development, etc.)
FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS
RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS – MULTIPLIERRESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS – MULTIPLIER
Supply Demand Multiplier (Supply/Demand)
54,254 units54,254 units 45,495 45,495 unitsunits
1.191.19
56,869 units56,869 units
(+2,615) from (+2,615) from projected 2035 projected 2035 supplysupply
45,495 45,495 unitsunits
1.251.25
FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS
Conclusion:
•There is adequate acreage to accommodate projected population.
•There is ability to accommodate additional allocation for residential growth.
NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USE-SUPPLYNON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USE-SUPPLY
Land Use Vacant Acreage
Mixed Use (80% Non-Residential) 1,939
Industrial 581
Palm Coast DRI 310
Town Center DRI 533
S.R. 100 DRI 14
Neoga Lakes DRI 276
Old Brick Township 115
S. Old Kings Road Planning Area 287
Total 4,055
FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS
NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS-NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS-EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY (DEMAND)EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY (DEMAND)
2035 PROJECTED POPULATION
2035 PROJECTED
LABOR FORCE
2035 PROJECTED
CAPTURE RATE
2035 EMPLOYMENT
TARGET
2009-2035 EMPLOYMENT
TARGET
168,112 109,270 70% 76,489 66,645
FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS
2035 Demand
Supply (1.50)
Supply (1.75)
Supply (2.00)
Non-Residential (Acres) 2,601 3,901 4,552 5,202
Land Use Employees Square feet per Employee
Land Needed (acres)
Commercial (30%) 19,994 500 1,147
Office/Institutional (55%) 36,665 250 1,052 Industrial/R&D/Transportation (7%) 4,665 750 402
TOTAL 61,324 2,601
Summary discussion of updated data.Summary discussion of updated data. Update DRI name from West Palm Coast Update DRI name from West Palm Coast
Park DRI to Palm Coast Park DRI.Park DRI to Palm Coast Park DRI. Clarification of Density/Intensity limits Clarification of Density/Intensity limits
in DRI land use category.in DRI land use category. Update zoning district table under Update zoning district table under
Policy 1.1.1.1Policy 1.1.1.1 Update to new zoning districtsUpdate to new zoning districts
Update limitations on Update limitations on densities/intensities to reflect historical densities/intensities to reflect historical trends.trends.
Amend policies to reflect completion of Amend policies to reflect completion of land development code.land development code.
FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – GOALS, OBJECTIVES, & POLICIES
Amend reference from Planned Unit Amend reference from Planned Unit Development (PUD) to Master Development (PUD) to Master Planned Development (MPD)Planned Development (MPD)
Adopt policy to maintain 5-Year and Adopt policy to maintain 5-Year and Long Range Planning PeriodsLong Range Planning Periods
Delete references to Palm Coast Delete references to Palm Coast Community Service Corporation Community Service Corporation (PCCSC)(PCCSC)
Amend policy to coordinate on a Amend policy to coordinate on a countywide strategic economic countywide strategic economic development plan.development plan.
FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – GOALS, OBJECTIVES, & POLICIES
Data UsedData Used 2006-2008 American Community 2006-2008 American Community
Survey 3-Year Estimates (For Housing Survey 3-Year Estimates (For Housing Data)Data)
Shimberg Center for Housing Studies Shimberg Center for Housing Studies (for Household Socio-Economic Data)(for Household Socio-Economic Data) Projections to 2030 onlyProjections to 2030 only Uses 2005 BEBR ProjectionsUses 2005 BEBR Projections
UpdateUpdate Comparison of 2000 Census with Comparison of 2000 Census with
updated informationupdated information
HOUSING ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS
Historic Trend Analysis-Existing HousingHistoric Trend Analysis-Existing Housing
2000 Census 2006-2008 ACS
Housing StockHousing Stock 90% Single-90% Single-familyfamily
88% Single-88% Single-familyfamily
Age of HousingAge of Housing Nearly all are Nearly all are less than 30 less than 30 years old (built years old (built after 1970)after 1970)
Nearly all less Nearly all less than 35 years than 35 years old, 50% are old, 50% are less than 10 less than 10 years old (built years old (built after 2000)after 2000)
TenureTenure Owner-Owner-Occupancy – Occupancy – 85% of 85% of residentsresidents
Owner Owner Occupancy – Occupancy – 75% of 75% of residentsresidents
HOUSING ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS
Historic Trend Analysis-Existing HousingHistoric Trend Analysis-Existing Housing
2000 Census 2006-2008 ACS
AffordabilityAffordability 40% of renters 40% of renters spend at least spend at least 30% of income 30% of income on housingon housing
65% of renters 65% of renters spend at least spend at least 30% of income 30% of income on housingon housing
Median ValueMedian Value $150,000$150,000 $230,300$230,300
Median RentMedian Rent $814$814 $1,074$1,074
HOUSING ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS
Historic Trend – Percentage of Households by Income GroupHistoric Trend – Percentage of Households by Income Group
Income Group
2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030
0-30% AMI 6.3% 6.3% 6.2% 6.3%
30.1-50% AMI 8.7% 9.0% 9.4% 9.5%
50.1% -80% AMI 16.9% 17.6% 18.1% 18.4%
80.01%-120% AMI 24.4% 24.3% 24.3% 24.5%
120%+ AMI 43.6% 42.9% 42.0% 41.3%
•Percentage of Households by Income Group
HOUSING ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS
Source: Shimberg Center for Housing Data
HOUSING ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS
Type 2009-2015
Annual 2015-2020
Annual 2020-2025
Annual
2025-2030
Annual 2030-2035
Annual
Population Growth 18,911 3,152 20,009 4,002 19,371 3,874 18,457 3,691 17,455 3,491
New Household Formations (2.38 persons/household) 7,946 1,324 8,407 1,681 8,139 1,628 7,755 1,551 7,334 1,467
Single-Family Units (80%) 6,357 1,059 6,726 1,345 6,511 1,302 6,204 1,241 5,867 1,173
Multi-Family Units (20%) 1,589 212 1,681 336 1,628 326 1,551 310 1,467 293
Total # of Units With Vacancy Rate of 12% 9,030 1,505 9,553 1,911 9,249 1,850 8,813 1,763 8,334 1,667
Housing Construction Needs (BEBR Projections)
Summary discussion of updated data.Summary discussion of updated data. Add term “extremely low” as a household Add term “extremely low” as a household
categorycategory Add reference to joint County-City Add reference to joint County-City
housing programhousing program Add reference to new housing programs Add reference to new housing programs
such as Neighborhood Stabilization such as Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP).Program (NSP).
Objective and Policy related to energy-Objective and Policy related to energy-efficient homesefficient homes
Renumber various objectives and policiesRenumber various objectives and policies
HOUSING ELEMENT – GOALS, OBJECTIVES, & POLICIES
RECREATION & OPEN SPACE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS
YEAR
2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Population 73,910 92,822 112,831 132,201 150,657 168,112
Existing Acres Developed 416.41 5.6 4.5 3.7 3.1 2.8 2.5 Undeveloped 595.04 8.1 6.4 5.3 4.5 3.9 3.5 Local 428.74 5.8 4.6 3.8 3.2 2.8 2.6 District 582.71 7.9 6.3 5.2 4.4 3.9 3.5
Total 1011.45 13.7 10.9 9.0 7.6 6.7 6.0
Allocation of Recreation and Open Space Area
Table 4.9 – Acreage Needed to Meet Recommended LOS 8 Acres/1000
2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Per Capita -5.5 -2.8 -0.9 0.4 1.4 2.0 Total Acreage
-409.7 -258.4 -98.4 56.6 204.2 343.9
*Note: Negative Numbers indicate surplus
RECREATION & OPEN SPACE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS
Summary discussion of updated Summary discussion of updated datadata
Change Table 4.1 Inventory of Change Table 4.1 Inventory of ParksParks
Update Policy 4.2.2.1 to reflect Update Policy 4.2.2.1 to reflect completion of various projectscompletion of various projects
Delete outdated referencesDelete outdated references
RECREATION & OPEN SPACE ELEMENT – GOALS, OBJECTIVES, & POLICIES
Add Intergovernmental Agreements Add Intergovernmental Agreements since 2004since 2004 Joint Water Supply Settlement Joint Water Supply Settlement
AgreementAgreement Joint County-City Housing ProgramJoint County-City Housing Program Coquina Coast Desalination Plant StudyCoquina Coast Desalination Plant Study Interlocal Agreement for School Facility Interlocal Agreement for School Facility
PlanningPlanning
INTERGOVERNMENTAL COORDINATION ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS
Delete references to Palm Coast Delete references to Palm Coast Community Service Corporation Community Service Corporation (PCCSC), Florida Water Service (PCCSC), Florida Water Service (FWS)(FWS)
Amend reference from Dayton Beach Amend reference from Dayton Beach Community College to Daytona State Community College to Daytona State CollegeCollege
Amend reference from NEFRPC to Amend reference from NEFRPC to NEFRCNEFRC
INTERGOVERNMENTAL COORDINATION ELEMENT – GOALS, OBJECTIVES, & POLICIES