Coffee Rust: Impacts and Actions
Amy Angel
Let´s Talk CoffeeEl Salvador, October 2013
Incidence of Coffee Rust
Source: CATIE, ICO
Coffee Area (hct)
% of Area Affected by
Roya 2012/13Costa Rica 93,774 64%El Salvador 152,187 71%Guatemala 276,479 59%Honduras 282,513 30%Nicaragua 126,154 36%Panamá 19,490 32%Perú 415,000 43%México 769,786 10%Dominican Rep. 131,250 46%Total 2,266,633 35%
Has fallen in most áreas in 13/14
Steady or worse in Guatemala
In Mexico, will increase to 30% in 13/14
Goal to reduce to 20% in Peru by December 2013
Severity in affected areas in El Salvador: pruning in 76%, 12% recepa, 2% new plants, 11% no action
Production in Central America
07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/140
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
HondurasGuatemalaCosta RicaNicaraguaEl Salvador10
00 6
0kg
bags
Sources: ICO, USDA, media reports
Total for CA fell 15% from 11/12 to 12/13, and will fall 19% more from 12/13 to 13/14
Production in Other Rust Affected Countries
07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/140
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
ColombiaPeruMexico
1000
60k
g ba
gs
Sources: ICO, USDA, media reports
Shows Colombia´s effective fight against rust
Will fall 21% in Peru and 25% in Mexico from 11/12 to 13/14 (2 yrs)
Export Value from Central America
10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14*0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
El SalvadorNicaraguaCosta RicaGuatemalaHondurasU
S$ m
illio
n
* Projected value
Steepest declines in El Salvador and Guatemala
Volume falls 22% but value falls 55% from 10/11 to 13/14
3450
1570
Percentage of Areas Planted with Varieties Susceptible to Coffee Rust
Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Panama0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%90.0%
94.3%
80.0%
50.0%
86.0%82.0%
Source: CATIE
Avg in CA 80.2%
Age of Coffee Plantations
Mexico
Guatemala
El Salva
dor
Nicaragua
Costa Rica
Panama
Dominican Rep.
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
less than 10 yrs 11 to 20 yrs more than 20 yrs
Source: OIRSA
Data not available for Honduras, but is known to have younger plantations.
Other Compounding Factors
• Greater losses among small scale farmers• Other plagues and diseases; climate change• Lower quality – less income from differentials• Lower price and smaller crop - lower credit • No good solutions for organic production
Coffee Rust not only destroyed my farm, but also my dreams.
- Ernestina Martínez, Ojo de Agua,
Honduras
Estimates of Average Gross Annual Income for Coffee Farmers
10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14*0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Honduras Guatemala Costa RicaNicaragua El Salvador
US$
Falls 56.5% on avg for CA in 4 yrs
Cost of production has also increased from fighting rust
Employment on Coffee Farms in El Salvador
050,000
100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000
temporary workerspermanent workers
Source: Based on IV Censo Agropecuario and Consejo Salvadoreño del Café
336
283
181
Social impacts
• Over 500,000 farm and processing jobs lost in 2013 in Central America
• Average less than 3 hct per farmer• Few employment/income/staple food production
alternatives in coffee areas• Assessment in Guatemala (WFP)
– 43% of coffee HH spend over 65% of income on food– 85% grow corn/beans but not enough for whole year– 37% of laborers have no other livelihood– 15% of small farmers have no other source of income– 35,000 vulnerable families who need assistance– 37,000 additional families at risk of becoming food insecure
Action Plan• Food assistance for over
55,000 families for 3-5 months (WFP)
• Early warning and information system
• Research on blends• Research on varieties• Research and train farmers
on fighting coffee rust• Identify sources for
financing/innovative tools• Diversification
More than a crisis, it is a new beginning for coffee in Central America.
- Robéiro Oliveira Silva, Executive Director ICO
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