Climate Services for
Improving Adaptation to
Climate Variability and Change
Walter E. BaethgenDirector, Regional and Sectorial Research Program
Leader, Latin America and CaribbeanIRI, Columbia University, New York
Walter E. Baethgen 2015
http://www.climate-services.org/
1. Production, Translation, Transfer, and Use
2. Climate-informed decision making, policy and planning
“Climate services involve the Production, Translation, Transfer, and Use of Climate Knowledge and Information in climate-informed decision making and climate-smart policy and planning.”
Climate Services: Definition
Walter E. Baethgen 2015
Climate Services: Knowledge Production, Translation, Transfer, and Use
Example of a Medical Service
Problem: Patient with Headache Doctor’s recommendation: CAT Scan
Walter E. Baethgen 2015
Example of a Medical Service: CAT Scan
All links are needed (eliminate one and the chain falls)
Each one can give information to the Patient (end user) based on their knowledge and experiences
Only one can give the Patient"ACTIONABLE” information
The patient still decidesWhat to do (maybe nothing)Evaluation?
Fundamental research on X-Rays(didn’t think / didn’t care about applications)
Basic research on Digital Geometric Processing
(didn’t think / didn’t care about applications)
Applied research that connected images with edemas
(thought about applications)
Technician: CAT scanner operator(Operational)
Doctor / Neurologist
Patient
Private Sector(Opportunity for investing in CAT Scanner)
Climate Services: Knowledge Production, Translation, Transfer, and Use
Walter E. Baethgen 2015
Translation, Transfer and Use: Information Networks(Very) Simplified Example in Agriculture
• Understand the Network (links, processes)• Identify weak links (inexistent)• Identify “key” nodes for effective interaction
Requires Research
International Research
ClimateLocal
UniversityAgriculturalResearchInstitute
AdvisersFarmers
Farmer
Ministry
RegionalResearch Institute
International Research Agriculture
LocalUniversity
LocalUniversity
Rural SocialResearchInstitute
ClimateResearchInstitute
ExtensionService,
NGO
AdvisersMinistry
Insurance
Agribusiness
MeteorologicalService
FinancialServices
Walter E. Baethgen 2015
Information and
DECISION
SUPPORT
SYSTEMS
Climate services include Production, Translation, Transfer, and Use of Climate Knowledge:
Integrate Climate with Agronomy, Economy, Markets
Walter E. Baethgen 2015
FEB 1- 10 FEB 11 – 20 FEB 21 – 28
MAR 1- 10 MAR 11 – 20 MAR 21 - 28
Uruguay 2015:
INIA – IRI (IDSS) = SNIAProvided information toMinistry of Agriculture
Soil Water Content(Translate Climate into Agronomy)
Original Soil Water Balanceper Soil Type
Decisions: per AdministrativeUnit (parish / county)
5 May: Ministry declaredEmergency in 4 Eastern provinces
-Special Credit for feed-Prioritize response
APR 1- 10 APR 11 – 20 APR 21 - 28
Walter E. Baethgen 2015
Climate Services for Improving Adaptation to CC:
Adapt to What? Future Climate in my Region?Climate Change Scenarios: Using Climate Models (GCMs)
Walter E. Baethgen 2015
Adapt to What?Climate Change Scenarios: Using Climate Models (GCMs)
1. Great advances in science,but still lots to understand:Limitations of the Models
Example: over / underestimation of rainfall observed in 1900 - 2010
2. Key Input: GHG Emissions
Assumptions:(e.g., in 2080-2100)
Technologies? Energy Sources? Deforestation rates?Population?
Uncertainties
Socioeconomic Scenarios: optimistic to pessimistic
Walter E. Baethgen 2015
Connect RCPs with Climate Models: IPCC Scenarios Example: Change in Global Temperature
Walter E. Baethgen 2015 Giannini et al., 2007
For Precipitation Uncertainties are much larger
East Africa
This is for large “Windows”At Local level Uncertainties are much larger
East Africa:90% of ClimateModels agree in signof change (increase)
Individual runs and mean
Walter E. Baethgen 2015
Scenarios for Adaptation to Climate Change
Very far in the future: 2080-2100 (and urgent needs)
Very coarse in spatial scale (and local needs)and downscaling does not help
Very uncertain (especially rainfall, local level)
Hard to consider in actual decisions
Walter E. Baethgen 2015
Current Paradigm: “PREDICTIVE” (Noah’s Ark)
(R. Terra, 2014, in prep)
Perfect Information about the Future: a Climatic Cataclism is comingAction: Build infrastructure and save Biodiversity
But: We do not have (will not have) Perfect Information of the Future Climate
Need a new Paradigm
Walter E. Baethgen 2015
Paradigm 2: Ginkgo biloba
Walter E. Baethgen 2015
Ginkgo biloba
Approx 1,000m from epicenter in Hiroshima
2 million years of EvolutionAdapted (resilient) to a wide range of conditionsUnprecedent extreme event (A-bomb)
Somehow 6 Ginkgos Survived
Paradigm: Adapt with “flexibility”
• We will not have “perfect” information• Adapt to a range of plausible conditions• Start by Adapting to today’s conditions
Paradigm 2: Ginkgo biloba
(Rafael Terra, 2014, in prep)
Walter E. Baethgen 2015
Climate Services for Agriculture
Include: Production, Translation, Transfer, and Use
Consideration of Information Networks (vs. just “end users”)
Production requires Research (basic and applied)
Translation, Transfer, and Use require:
Integration of Climate with other relevant Information
Training on communication, translation, integration, use
Climate Services and Adaptation: New ParadigmAdapt with Flexibility (starting with today’s climate)
Translation of climate information into Agronomic information
Walter E. Baethgen 2015
Thank you
Walter E. Baethgen
Director, Regional and Sectorial Research Program
Leader, Latin America and Caribbean
IRI, Earth Institute
Columbia University, New York