8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
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]d~dg}nc ]dvj}u
ONA^N]]6>
N`algud Ncgkod V}jidnuajk~ bj} Vgha~ugk, Kdvg` gkeMgko`ged~c bj} ^]D^ G= gke G7M ^ndkg}aj~ t~ako
jtuvtu~ jb 7? ONL~ t~de ak AVNNG]5
^a}gi t` A~`gl, Kgeag ]dclgk, L+ Ltka} ^cdahcG}~cge L+ Hcgk
Itkd =661
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
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Vtm`a~cde mq9O`jmg` Ncgkod Alvgnu utead~ Ndku}d #ONA^N!
Kguajkg` Ndku}d bj} Vcq~an~ #KNV! Njlv`ds
WtgaeaGygl Tkard}~auq Nglvt~
V+J+ Mjs >6==, b~`glgmge55666
Vgha~ugk
A^MK9 1?31211>1467 ?
FONA^N
Njvq}aocu+ Uca~ ]dvj}u, j} gkq vg}u jb au, lgq kju md t~de bj} }d~g`d j} gkq jucd} njlld}nag` j}ogakbt` vt}vj~d aucjtu v}aj} vd}la~~ajk jb O`jmg` Ncgkod Alvgnu ^utead~ Ndku}d, A~`glgmge,
Vgha~ugk+ Bj} detnguajkg` j} kjkv}jbau t~d, cjdrd}, gkq vg}u jb ucd ]dvj}u lgq md }dv}jetnde
auc gvv}jv}agud gnhkj`deodldku+
Vtm`a~cde ak9 Itkd =661
Uca~ ]dvj}u lgq md naude g~ bj``j~9
A~`gl, ^+, K+ ]dclgk, L+ L+ ^cdahc gke G+L+ Hcgk #=661!, N`algud Ncgkod V}jidnuajk~ bj}Vgha~ugk, Kdvg` gke Mgko`ged~c bj} ^]D^ G= gke G A M ^ndkg}aj~ t~ako jtuvtu~ jb 7? ONL~
t~de ak AVNNG]5+ ONA^N]]6>, O`jmg` Ncgkod Alvgnu ^utead~ Ndku}d #ONA^N!, A~`glgmge, Vgha~ugk
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
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8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
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BJ]D_J]E
O`jmg` Ncgkod Alvgnu ^utead~ Ndku}d #ONA^N! g~ d~ugm`a~cde ak =66= g~ g edeangude }d~dg}ncndku}d bj} n`algud ncgkod gke jucd} o`jmg` ncgkod }d`gude ~utead~, gu ucd akauaguard jb E}+ A~cbgwGclge, K`, CA, ^b, ucd ucdk ^vdnag` Gera~j} uj Ncadb Dsdntuard jb Vgha~ugk+ Ucd Ndku}d cg~~aknd mddk dkogode ak }d~dg}nc jk vg~u gke v}jidnude n`algud ncgkod ak eabbd}dku ~tm }doajk~ jbVgha~ugk8 nj}}d~vjkeako alvgnu~ jk ucd njtku}q/~ hdq ~dnuj}~8 ak vg}uant`g} _gud} gkeGo}ant`ut}d8 gke gegvuguajk ldg~t}d~ uj njtkud} ucd kdoguard alvgnu~+
Ucd j}h ed~n}amde ak uca~ }dvj}u g~ ng}}ade jtu gu ONA^N gke g~ ~tvvj}ude ak vg}u mq GVK#G~ag Vgnaban Kduj}h bj} O`jmg` Ncgkod ]d~dg}nc!, Hjmd, Igvgk, uc}jtoc au~ NGVgM@DV}jo}glld tked} g >qdg} ngvgnauq dkcgkndldku ntl }d~dg}nc V}jidnu uau`de -Dkcgkndldku jb
kguajkg` ngvgma`auad~ ak ucd gvv`anguajk jb ~alt`guajk ljed`~ bj} g~~d~~ldku jb n`algud ncgkodgke au~ alvgnu~ jk gud} }d~jt}nd~, gke bjje gke go}ant`ut}g` v}jetnuajk-, gg}ede uj ONA^N ak=66> ak nj``gmj}guajk auc Vgha~ugk Ldudj}j`joang` Edvg}uldku #VLE!+
Au a~ cjvde ucgu ucd }dvj}u a`` v}jraed t~dbt` akbj}lguajk uj kguajkg` v`gkkd}~ gke vj`anqlghd}~g~ d`` g~ uj gngedlan gke }d~dg}nc j}ogkayguajk~ ak ucd njtku}q jk a~~td~ }d`gude uj alvgnu~ jbn`algud ncgkod jk Vgha~ugk+
Ucd hddk akud}d~u gke ~tvvj}u mq E}+ A~cbgw Gclge, Gera~j} #^ " U! uj ucd V`gkkakoNjlla~~ajk gke t~dbt` udnckang` gerand mq E}+ Gla} Ltcgllde, ]dnuj}, Kguajkg` Tkard}~auqbj} Njlvtud} gke Dld}oako ^nadknd~ gke Ldlmd}, ^nadkuaban V`gkkako O}jtv, GVK,uc}jtocjtu ucd njt}~d jb uca~ j}h g}d o}gudbt``q gnhkj`deode+
E}+ G}~cge L+ HcgkDsdntuard Ea}dnuj}, ONA^N
{
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
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V]DBGND
Bj``jako ucd njlv`duajk jb ucd j}h ed~n}amde ak ONA^N ]]6=, canc g~ mg~de jk 2 ONL~t~de ak ucd Uca}e G~~d~~ldku ]dvj}u jb AVNN #=667!, rg}ajt~ kd O`jmg` N`algudLjed`~ #ONL~! d}d bjtke aku}jetnde ak AVNN Bjt}uc G~~d~~ldku ]dvj}u #=66?!+ Ucd eduga`~jb rg}ajt~ ONL~ g}d oardk ak ucd }dvj}u+ Bj} ^alt`guajk~ jb ~t}bgnd ga} udlvd}gut}d gke
v}dnavauguajk bj} Vgha~ugk, ucd jtuvtu~ jb 7> ONL~ bj} G= ~ndkg}aj gke ucd jtuvtu jb 7? ONL~bj} G`M ~ndkg}aj g}d ~qkucd~ayde bj} ucd gkg`q~a~ jb mag~d~ gke edrd`jvldku jb ucd btut}dn`algud ncgkod v}jidnuajk~+ Ucd~d egug ~du~ njrd} ucd uald cj}ayjk 7126=766+ _d ujjh ucd
vd}aje 71277116 g~ ucd mg~d vd}aje gke njk~aed}de uc}dd uald ~`and~9 =676=6>1 #`gmd`de g~=6=6~!, =656=621 #`gmd`de g~ =646~! gke =6?6=611 #`gmd`de g~ =636~! bj} jmugakako v}jidnudegrd}god rg`td~ jrd} ucd nj}}d~vjkeako >6 qdg} vd}aje~ ak ucd btut}d+ Ak ucd mg~d vd}aje, ONL
jtuvtu~ d}d njlvg}de auc ucd jm~d}rde o}aeede egug #N]T egug~du~! uj ncdnh ucd gma`auq jbljed`~ uj }dv}jetnd ucd ca~uj}ang` n`alguj`joq jrd} ucd ^jtuc G~ag }doajk vg}uant`g}`q jrd}Vgha~ugk+ Ucd~d ljed`~ d}d ucdk t~de uj edrd`jv n`algud ncgkod v}jidnuajk~ nj}}d~vjkeako ujAVNN G= gke G`M ~ndkg}aj~ bj} Vgha~ugk g~ g cj`d g~ d`` g~ bj} ~jld ~d`dnude }doajk~ jb ucdnjtku}q, gke bj} Mgko`ged~c gke Kdvg`+ Ucd gmjrd }d~t`u~ d}d ucdk njlmakde uj jmugak ucd
v}jidnuajk~ bj} gkktg` rg`td~ jb udlvd}gut}d gke v}dnavauguajk nj}}d~vjkeako uj ucd dk~dlm`d jb`> gke 7? ONL~ }d~vdnuard`q+
Ucd dk~dlm`d udlvd}gut}d jb ONL~ ~cjde nj`e mag~ jrd} Vgha~ugk, Kdvg` gke Mgko`ged~c+ Akg`` jb ONL~, DNCGL gke CgeNL> ~cjde ucd lakaltl mag~ gke cge ojje go}ddldku aucjm~d}rde N]T egug~du g`lj~u g`` jrd} ^jtuc G~ag g~ njlvg}de uj jucd} ONL~+ Ucd ~vguag`n`alguj`joq jb ucd dk~dlm`d v}dnavauguajk g~ dgh`q }dv}jetnde jrd} Mgko`ged~c, ucd mag~
jrd} Kdvg` g~ wtaud `d~~ cd}dg~ jrd} Vgha~ugk au g~ kdo aoam`d+
Ucd udlvd}gut}d akn}dg~d~ ak mjuc ~tlld} gke akud} g}d caocd} ak Kj}ucd}k Vgha~ugk ucgk ak^jtucd}k Vgha~ugk+ G`~j, ucd }a~d~ ak udlvd}gut}d, tked} mjuc ~ndkg}aj~ jk gkktg` g~ d`` g~~dg~jkg` mg~a~ ak Vgha~ugk gke Kdvg` g}d njlvg}gm`d, ca`d ucj~d ak Mgko`ged~c g}d }d`guard`q`jd}+ Bt}ucd}lj}d, ucd}d a~ }d`guard`q g `g}od} udlvd}gut}d akn}dg~d ak akud} ucgk ak ~tlld} akg`` ucd uc}dd njtku}ad~+ Ucd v}dnavauguajk a~ `ahd`q uj akn}dg~d ak ~tlld} gke edn}dg~d ak akud}ak ucd uc}dd njtku}ad~, ca`d jk gkktg` mg~a~ au a`` akn}dg~d ak Mgko`ged~c mtu cgrd kj
~aokabangku ncgkod, aucak ucd `g}od d}}j}~, ak Kdvg` gke Vgha~ugk+
aa
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@a~u jb Ugm`d~
Ugm`d 7 Ljed`~ t~de ak ucd ~uteq, ucda} ndku}d gke }d~j`tuajk =
Ugm`d = Njlvg}a~jk jb ONL~ t~de ak AVNN UG] gke AVNN G]5 1
Ugm`d >#g! Mag~d~ jrd} Vgha~ugk ~alt`gude mq 7?ONL~ 76
Ugm`d >#m! Mag~d~ jrd} Kdvg` ~alt`gude mq 7?ONL~ 77
Ugm`d >#n! Mag~d~ jrd} Mgko`ged~c ~alt`gude mq 7?ONL~ 7=
Ugm`d 5 V}jidnude Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #6N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd =7
Kj}ucd}k Vgha~ugk
Ugm`d 4 V}jidnude V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ ==
jrd} Kj}ucd}k Vgha~ugk
Ugm`d 2 V}jidnude Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N!mq 7? ONL~ =>jrd} ^jtucd}k Vgha~ugk
Ugm`d ? V}jidnude V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ =>
jrd} ^jtucd}k Vgha~ugk
Ugm`d 3 V}jidnude Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N!mq I ? ONL~ =5
jrd} Vgha~ugkUgm`d 1 V}jidnude V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, " #$! mq 7? ONL~ =5
jrd} Vgha~ugk
Ugm`d 76 V}jidnude Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} =2
BCGM #Ctlae*^tmctlae " ^dlag}ae Go}jn`a}kguan
Yjkd!
Ugm`d 77 V}jidnude Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N!mq 7? ONL~ =2
Jrd} BCNE #G}ae " Cqvd}g}ae Go}jn`alguan Yjkd!
Ugm`d 7= V}jidnude V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, " #$! mq 7? ONL~ =?
jrd} BCGM #Ctlae*~tmctlae " ^dlag}ae Go}jn`alguan Yjkd!
Ugm`d 7> V}jidnude V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ =?]doajk BCNE #G}ae " Cqvd}g}ae Go}jn`alguan Yjkd!
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
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Ugm`d 75 V}jidnude Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N !mq 7? ONL~ =1
jrd} Hgmt` " Icd`tl
Ugm`d 74 V}jidnude Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U # N ! mq 7? ONL~ =1
jrd} _gud} Mg~ak
Ugm`d 72 V}jidnude V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} >6
Hgmt` " Icd`tl
Ugm`d 7? V}jidnude V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ >6
jrd} _gud} Mg~ak
Ugm`d 73 V}jidnude Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N! mq 7? ONL~ >=
jrd} Kdvg`
Ugm`d 71 V}jidnude V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ >=
jrd} Kdvg`
Ugm`d =6 V}jidnude Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, +U #N!mq 7? ONL~ >5
jrd} Mgko`ged~c
Ugm`d =7 V}jidnude V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ >5
Mgko`ged~c
`R
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
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@a~u jb Baot}d~
r
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
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Baot}d 7> #g! Ldgk gkktg` dk~dlm`d ncgkod jb udlvd}gut}d #N! 71gke #m! v}dnavauguajk #$! bj} B`, B= gke B> bj} G`M
~ndkg}aj jrd} Mgko`ged~c+
Baot}d 75 #g! Ldgk gkktg` dk~dlm`d ncgkod jb udlvd}gut}d #6N! =6
gke v}dnavauguajk #$! bj} BA, B= gke B> bj} G`M ~ndkg}aj
jrd} Kdvg`
Baot}d 74 O}ae~ njrd}ako #g! Vgha~ugk, #m! Kj}ucd}k Vgha~ugk #BCK! =7
gke #n! ^jtucd}k Vgha~ugk #BC^!
Baot}d 72 #g! BCGM #Ctlae*^tmctlae gke ^dla G}ae!, #m! =4
BCNE #G}ae Cqvd} G}ae! n`algud yjkd~ jb Vgha~ugk
Baot}d 7? _gud} ~cde njlv}a~d~ #g! Hgmt` gke Icd`tl }ard} =3
nguncldku~ gke ucd cj`d #m! gud} ~cde jb }ard} Aket~+
Baot}d 73 O}ae~ njrd}ako Kdvg` >7
Baot}d 71 O}ae~ njrd}ako Mgko`ged~c >>
RA
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
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@a~u jb Gn}jkql~
Lj~u jb ucd Gn}jkql~ gke gmm}draguajk, cd}drd} ucdq gvvdg} ak udsu, g}d edbakde g~ bj``j~+
raa
GONL Gulj~vcd}d Odkd}g` Na}nt`guajk Ljed`
GJONL Gulj~vcd}d*Jndgk Odkd}g` Na}nt`guajk Ljed`
GVK G~ag Vgnaban Kduj}h
N]T N`algud ]d~dg}nc Tkau
EEN Egug Ea~u}amtuajk Ndku}d
EIBL Edndlmd}Igktg}qBdm}tg}qLg}nc
DNL_B Dt}jvdgk Ndku}d bj} Ldeatl ]gkod _dgucd} Bj}dng~u
ONA^N O`jmg` Ncgkod Alvgnu ^utead~ Ndku}d
ONL~ Odkd}g` Na}nt`guajk Ljed`
ANUV Akud}kguajkg` Ndku}d bj} ucdj}duang` Vcq~an~
AVNN Akud}ojrd}kldkug` Vgkd` jk N`algud Ncgkod
IIG^ ItkdIt`qGtot~u^dvudlmd}
LVA LgsV`gknh Ak~uautud
JONL Jndgk Odkd}g` Na}nt`guajk Ljed`
VLE Vgha~ugk Ldudj}j`joang` Edvg}uldku
V_N Vcq~an~ jb _dgucd} gke N`algud
^]D^ ^vdnag` ]dvj}u jk Dla~~ajk~ ^ndkg}aj~
^@V ^dg @drd` V}d~~t}d
_LJ _j}`e Ldudj}j`joang` J}ogkayguajk
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
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Aku}jetnuajk9Ucd lj~u njlljk`q gke aed`q gnndvude lducje jb ~ndkg}aj njk~u}tnuajk akrj`rd~ ucd t~d jb
ucd jtuvtu jb O`jmg` N`algud Ljed`~ #ONL~!, g`~j hkjk g~ Odkd}g` Na}nt`guajk Ljed`~+
Ucd~d ljed`~ g}d ucd lj~u njlv`ds jb n`algud ljed`~, ~aknd ucdq guudlvu uj }dv}d~dku ucd lgaknjlvjkdku~ jb ucd n`algud ~q~udl ak uc}dd ealdk~ajk~+ Kjgegq~ Njtv`de Gulj~vcd}d
Jndgk Odkd}g` Na}nt`guajk~ Ljed`~ #GJONL~! cgrd mdnjld g rg`tgm`d ujj` ak guudlvuako uj
tked}~ugke gke v}deanu n`algud ncgkod #Cjtocujk du g`+ 7112!+
Ak `gud =665 gke dg}`q =664, g ~taud jb ~ugudjbucdg}u ONL ~alt`guajk~ d}d dsdntude aucnjlljk o}ddkcjt~d og~ bj}nako njkeauajk~ ak ~tvvj}u jb ucd Akud}ojrd}kldkug` Vgkd` jk
N`algud Ncgkod #AVNN! Bjt}uc G~~d~~ldku ]dvj}u #G]5!+ Ca~uj}an ~alt`guajk~ bj}nde mq ucd
jm~d}rde o}ddkcjt~d og~ njkndku}guajk~ bj} ucd =6uc ndkut}q gke n`algud v}jidnuajk~ bj} ucd =7~u
ndkut}q, t~ako eabbd}dku o}ddkcjt~d og~ njkndku}guajk ~ndkg}aj~, d}d vd}bj}lde mq ucd
ljed`ako ndkud}~ g}jtke ucd j}`e gke ucd jtuvtu g}ncarde bj} drg`tguajk mq n`algud ~nadkua~u~
gke vj`anqlghd}~+ Ucd AVNN ONL jtuvtu g}ncard v}jraed~ g tkawtd jvvj}utkauq uj n}auang``q
drg`tgud ucd~d `g}od~ng`d n`algud ljed` jtuvtu~ bj} gkq }doajk, gke m}ako ucd~d drg`tguajk~ uj
edrd`jv ucd n`algud ncgkod v}jidnuajk~ b}jl ucd~d ljed`~ #AVNN, =66?!+
Bj} uca~ ~uteq, ucd jmidnuard~ jb uca~ drg`tguajk akn`ted9
#A! Gk g~~d~~ldku jb ucd gma`auq jb ucd~d `gud~u AVNN -~ugudjbucdg}u- ljed`~ uj ~alt`gudca~uj}an ldgk~ gke rg}agma`auq ak ~t}bgnd udlvd}gut}d gke v}dnavauguajk jrd} ^jtuc G~ag gke8
#=! G ~qkucd~a~ jb v}jidnuajk~ jb ~t}bgnd ga} udlvd}gut}d gke v}dnavauguajk bj} ucd =7~u ndkut}q
gke g wtgkuauguard njlvg}a~jk jb ucd v}jidnude ncgkod~ jb ucd ljed`~ gke ucd gn}j~~ljed`
rg}agknd+
=+ Ljed`~ gke jm~d}rguajkg` egug
Jtuvtu b}jl 7? AVdd ONL~ g}d t~de bj} rg`aeguajk g~ d`` g~ bj} ucd edrd`jvldku jb btut}dn`algud ncgkod ~ndkg}aj~+ Ucd~d egug ~du~ }dv}d~dku ucd `g}od ~tm~du jb ljed` jtuvtu bj} ~t}bgnd
ga} udlvd}gut}d gke v}dnavauguajk, gke g}d grga`gm`d bj} ucd =6uc ndkut}q ~alt`guajk~ gke =7~u
ndkut}q v}jidnuajk~ bj}nde mq ~drd}g` AVNN o}ddkcjt~d og~ njkndku}guajk ~ndkg}aj~+
^alt`guajk~ jb ucd =6uc ndkut}q t~d o}ddkcjt~d og~ njkndku}guajk~ gke, ak ~jld ng~d~, d~ualgude
~t`bgud gd}j~j`~, cd}dg~ bj} btut}d v}jidnuajk~, ucd~d ONL~ t~d ucd v}jidnude o}ddkcjt~d og~
njkndku}guajk~ bj} ucd uc}dd ~ndkg}aj~ jb =`+u ndkut}q #^]D^ G=, ^]D^ G `M, gke ^]D^ M 7!+
^uj}q `akd~ G= gke G`M t~de ak uca~ }dvj}u g}d ed~n}amde cd}d9
-Ucd G7 ~uj}q`akd gke ~ndkg}aj bgla`q ed~n}amd~ g btut}d wj}`e jb rd}q }gvae dnjkjlan o}jwuc, o`jmg`
vjvt`guajk ucgu vdgh~ ak laendkut}q gke edn`akd~ ucd}dgbud}, gke ucd }gvae aku}jetnuajk
jb kdw gke lj}d dbbanadku udnckj`joad~+ Lgij} tked}`qako ucdld~ g}d njkrd}odknd gljko
}doajk~, ngvgnauq mta`eako gke akn}dg~de nt`ut}g` gke ~jnag` akud}gnuajk~, wauc g ~tm~ugkuag`}detnuajk ak }doajkg` eabbd}dknd~ ak vd} ngvaug aknjld+ Ucd G7 ~ndkg}aj bgla`q edrd`jv~ akujuc}dd o}jtv~ ucgu ed~n}amd g`ud}kguard ea}dnuajk~ ji udnckj`joang` ncgkod ak ucd dkd}oq ~q~udl+
Ucd uc}dd G a o}jtv~ g}d ea~uakota~cde mq ucda} udnckj`joang` dlvcg~a~9 bj~~a` akudk~ard #G7BA!,
kjkbj~~a` dkd}oq ~jt}nd~ #GAU!, j} g mg`gknd gn}j~~ g`` ~jt}nd~ #G`M! #wcd}d mg`gknde a~
edbakde g~ kju }d`qako ujj cdgra`q jk jkd vg}uant`g} dkd}oq ~jt}nd, jk ucd g~~tlvuajk ucgu
~ala`g} alv}jrdldku }gud~ gvv`q uj g`` dkd}oq ~tvv q gke dket~d udnckj`joad~-!-#AVNN,
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=667!+
-Ucd G= ~uj}q`akd gke ~ndkg}aj bgla`q ed~n}amd~ g rd}q cdud}jodkdjt~ wj}`e+ Ucd tked}`qako
ucdld a~ ~d`b}d`agknd gke v}d~d}rguajk jb `jng` aedkuauad~+ Bd}ua`auq vguud}k~ gn}j~~ }doajk~
njkrd}od rd}q ~`jw`q, wcanc }d~t`u~ ak njkuaktjt~`q akn}dg~ako vjvt`guajk+ Dnjkjlan
edrd`jvldku a~ v}alg}a`q }doajkg``q j}adkude gke vd} ngvaug dnjkjlan o}jwuc gke
udnckj`joang` ncgkod lj}d b}goldkude gke ~`jwd} ucgk jucd} ~uj}q`akd~-#AVNN, =667!
Uj bgna`augud ONL akud}njlvg}a~jk gke rg`aeguajk auc ucd jm~d}rde egug ~du a+d+ N]T egug, g``ljkuc`q bad`e~ jb g ONL g}d akud}vj`gude uj g njlljk 76 s 76 `guauted`jkoauted o}ae+ Ucdakud}njlvg}a~jk jb ca~uj}an ldgk~ t~d gkktg` ldgk~ bj} 7127 uj 7116+ V}jidnude ncgkod~ jb~t}bgnd ga} udlvd}gut}d gke v}dnavauguajk~ g}d mg~de jk ucd uc}dd =7~u ndkut}q uald ~`and~ =676=6>1 #=6=6~!, =656=621 #=646~! gke =6?6=611 #=636~! }d~vdnuard q+
Ak Ugm`d 7, ONL~ t~de ak uca~ gkg`q~a~ g}d ugmt`gude auc ucda} }d~vdnuard Ndku}d gke }d~j`tuajk+Bj}G= ~ndkg}aj~ egug jb jk`q 7> ONL~ a~ grga`gm`d, cd}dg~ bj} G7M ng~d, egug jb g`` ucd 7?ONL~ a~ gnnd~~am`d+ Dk~dlm`d~ rg`td~ cgrd gnnj}eako`q mddk j}hde jtu+
Ugm`d 79 Ljed`~ t~de ak ucd ~uteq, ucda} ndku}d gke }d~j`tuajk
=
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
13/91
Ak g`` ucd ugm7d~ t~d Ak uca~ }dvj}u, s }dv}d~dku~ ucd dk~dlm`d ldgk jb ONL~ rg`td gke s
}dv}d~dku~ ucd ~ugkeg}e d}}j} g~ ed~n}amde md`j9
_cd}d saa~ ucd ljed` rg`td gke k a~ ucd ktlmd} jb ONL~+
G vjvt`g} n`alguj`joang` mg~d`akd vd}aje a~ g >6qdg} -kj}lg`- vd}aje g~ edbakde mq ucd _j}`eLdudj}j`joang` J}ogkayguajk #_LJ!+ Ucd}dbj}d ucd ljed`~ jtuvtu gke N]T egug ~du~ g}d u}tkngude
akuj ucd >6 qdg}~ mg~d`akd vd}aje jb 71277116+
=+7 Ljed`~ rg`aeguajk
Ak rg`aeguajk v}jnd~~, gkg`q~a~ jb gkktg` ~vguag` vguud}k jb ONL~ bj} v}dnavauguajk gke udlvd}gut}d a~ng}}ade jtu mq njlvg}ako ucd~d vguud}k~ auc N]T egug ~du bj} ucd >6qdg} mg~d`akd vd}aje a+d+
71277116 jrd} ^jtuc G~ag+
Gn}j~~ g`` ljed`~, ucd ~vguag` vguud}k~ jb ldgk udlvd}gut}d~ ~alt`gude mq ucd ONL~ g}d rd}q ~ala`g}uj ucj~d jb ucd N]T mtu ucd }d~t`uako mag~d~ g}d `g}od jrd} ~jld vg}u~ jb ^jtuc G~ag vg}uant`g}`q jrd}njlv`ds ujvjo}gvcan }doajk~+ Jkd vj~~am`d dsndvuajk a~ g `gnh jb eduga`ako ucd ONL jrd} ucd lgij}ujvjo}gvcan bdgut}d~+ Ucd njg}~d} o}ae }d~j`tuajk~ jb ucd ONL~ gke ucd grd}goako jb ucd ONL bad`e~jrd} 7? egug ~jt}nd~ `ahd`q ngt~d ucd ~ljjucdkako+
^ugkeg}e d}}j} mduddk 7? ONL~ a~ ng`nt`gude jrd} ucd cj`d o`jmd #Baot}d 7 #g! ! gke ucdk dsu}gnudebj} ^jtuc G~ag }doajk bj} g lj}d v}dna~d rad #Baot}d 7 #m!!+ ^ugkeg}e d}}j} jb udlvd}gut}d gke
v}dnavauguajk a~ ng`nt`gude bj} mg~d vd}aje #A 12716! uj dsglakd ucd go}ddldku mduddk eabbd}dkuONL~+
Ucd gkg`q~a~ jb ~ugkeg}e d}}j} jb udlvd}gut}d jrd} ucd o`jmd ~cj~ g ojje go}ddldku mduddk 7?ONL~ jrd} jndgk gke jrd} dwtguj} mtu g~ d ljrd ggq b}jl ucd dwtguj}, ucd akud}kg` go}ddldku
mduddk OdL~ edn}dg~d~, ~cjako g caocd} ~ugkeg}e d}}j} #Baot}d I!+ Ucd ~gld vguud}k a~ jm~d}rdejrd} ^jtuc G~ag, gke ucd}d a~ g `j ~ugkeg}e d}}j} jrd} jndgk gke g o}getg` akn}dg~d g~ d ljrdtvg}e~+ G caocd} ea~go}ddldku a~ jm~d}rde jrd} lj~u vg}u~ jb Vgha~ugk+
>
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
14/91
Baot}d 79 Rg}aguajk jb udlvd}gut}d #N!mduddk 7? ONL~ bj} ucd mg~d`akd vd}aje#71277116!, #g! jrd} O`jmd gke #m! jrd} ^jtuc G~ag
Ak ucd ng~d jb v}dnavauguajk, ucd ~autguajk a~ g`lj~u jvvj~aud+ Ucd}d a~ kj go}ddldku mduddk ONL~jrd} ucd dwtguj} cd}dg~ ucd ~ugkeg}e d}}j} a~ rd}q `j gmjrd gke md`j ucd dwtguj}+ Jrd} Vgha~ugk,ucd akud}kg` rg}aguajk mduddk ONL~ a~ rd}q d~~ g~ njlvg}de uj Kdvg`, Mgko`ged~c gke ~jld vg}u~ jbAkeag g~ ~cjk ak Baot}d =+
^vguag` vguud}k~ jb udlvd}gut}d gke v}dnavauguajk ~alt`gude mq ucd~d eabbd}dku ONL~ jrd} ^jtuc G~agg}d njlvg}de auc jm~d}rde N]T egug+ Gkktg` grd}god mag~ a~ ng`nt`gude bj} ucd mg~d `akd vd}aje
#712716!+
5
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
15/91
Baot}d =9 Rg}aguajk jb v}dnavauguajk #l}k*e! mduddk 7? ONL~ bj} ucd mg~d`akd vd}aje
#71277116!, #g! jrd} O`jmd gke #m! jrd} ^jtuc G~ag
Udlvd}gut}d mag~ bj} g`` ucd 7? ONL~ a~ ~cjk ak Baot}d >+ Uj ONL~ DNCGL #LVA! gke CgeNL>#THLJ! ~cj ucd lakaltl mag~ gke cgrd ojje go}ddldku auc jm~d}rde N]T egug g`lj~u g`` jrd}^jtuc G~ag g~ njlvg}de uj jucd} ONL~+ _ca`d ucd jucd} ONL~ oard ucd eabbd}dku mag~d~ jrd} eabbd}dku}doajk~ g~ caoc g~ 76N+
Ak ng~d jb v}dnavauguajk, vd}ndkugod mag~ a~ ng`nt`gude bj} eabbd}dku ONL~+ Gogak DNCGL gkeCgeNL> d`` ngvut}de ucd N]T n`alguj`joq gke ~cjde ucd lakaltl mag~ g~ njlvg}de uj jucd}
ONL~ g~ ~cjk ak Baot}d 5+
4
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
16/91
Baot}d >9Ldgk gkktg` mag~ jb udlvd}gut}d #N! }dv}jetnde mq eabbd}dku ljed`~ auc N]Tet}ako 712716+
2
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
17/91
Baot}d 59 Ldgk gkktg` vd}ndkugod #$! mag~ jb v}dnavauguajk }dv}jetnde mq eabbd}dku ljed`~ auc
N]T et}ako 712716+
?
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
18/91
7+=+= Rg`aeguajk jrd} Vgha~ugk, Kdvg` gke Mgko`ged~c
Vgha~ugk #Baot}d 4! `ad~ ak mjuc ~tm u}jvan~ gke udlvd}gud }doajk~ gke au~ n`algud a~ odkd}g``qg}ae, ncg}gnud}ayde mq cju ~tlld}~ gke nj`e akud}~, gke ucd}d g}d aed rg}aguajk~ mduddk
dsu}dld~ jb udlvd}gut}d gu eabbd}dku `jnguajk~+ Bj} dsglv`d, ucd njg~ug` g}dg g`jko ucd G}gmagk^dg a~ t~tg``q g}l, cd}dg~ ucd b}jydk ~kjnjrd}de }aeod~ jb ucd Hg}ghj}gl ]gkod gke jbjucd} ljtkugak~ jb ucd bg} kj}uc g}d ~j nj`e qdg} }jtke ucgu ucdq g}d jk`q gnnd~~am`d mq j}`en`g~~ n`almd}~ bj} g bd ddh~ ak Lgq gke Itkd jb dgnc qdg}+ X^jt}nd9cuuv9**dk+ahavdeag+j}o`aha`odjo}gvcqZjbZVgha~ugk\+
ONL~ g}d rg`aegude jrd} gnutg` odjo}gvcang` g}dg~ jb Vgha~ugk uj odu ucd akearaetg`vd}bj}lgknd jb dgnc ONL+ G`~j ucd ONL~ t~de ak AVNN G]5 #kd ONL~! g}d njlvg}de aucucd AVNN UG] ONL~ uj ~dd ucd eabbd}dknd mduddk ucd~d j`e gke kd rd}~ajk~ jb ONL~+
Baot}d 49 O}ae~ njrd}ako #g! Vgha~ugk, #m! Kdvg` gke #n! Mgko`ged~c
Ak Baot}d 2, mag~d~ jb kd gke j`e ONL~ g}d ~ddk o}gvcang``q+ Ak ng~d jb udlvd}gut}d, g`` ucd kd gkej`e ONL~ cgrd ucd ~gld vguud}k jb mag~d~, dsndvu bj} DNCGL5 canc cgrd ucd g}l mag~ bj} ucd au~kd rd}~ajk~+
Ak ng~d jb v}dnavauguajk, N^A]J, OBE@ gke CgeNL> ~cj ucd ~gld vguud}k bj} mjuc j`e gke kdONL~, cd}dg~ NONL= gke DNCGL ~cj kdoguard mag~ bj} j`e ONL~ gke vj~auard mag~ bj} kdONL~ jrd} Vgha~ugk+
3
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
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Baot}d 29 Gkktg` mag~d~ jb ONL~ t~de ak AVNN UG] #j`e! gke AVNN G]5 #kd! ak ucd mg~d
vd}aje #712716! bj} #g! udlvd}gut}d gke #m! v}dnavauguajk
Mag~d~ jb ONL~ t~de ak `VNN UG] gke ONL~ t~de ak `VNN G]5 g}d ugmt`gude ak Ugm`d =+Dk~dlm`d mag~ jb G]5 ONL~ a~ `d~~ ucgk ucgu jb UG] ONL~+ Dk~dlm`d mag~ jb UG] ONL~ a~>+71N ca`d uca~ mag~ a~ =+`^jN bj} G]5 ONL~+
Ugm`d =9 Njlvg}a~jk jb ONL~ t~de ak 'VNN UG] gke 'VNN G]5
Njlvg}a~jk jrd} Vgha~ugk #Rg`aeguajk!
ONL~ t~de ak AVNN UG] ONL~ t~de ak AVNN G]5
ONL~Udlv eabb #JN! V}dn eabb#$! Udlv eabb NJN! V}dn eabb#$!
N^A]J 4+22 >5+?2 >+27 55+?2
OBE@ 7+25 72+=6 5+7= 1+?4
CgeNL> =+63 7?+4? =+62 73+>3
NONL= 2+57 2?+2= 7+?= >4+73
DNCGL 6+72 >+?3 6+?3 =?+7?
#s S! >+717+=7 ?+64 7?+51 =+746+32 =>+74 1+>7
G`` ucd 7? ONL~ g}d rg`aegude ak mg~d `akd vd}aje bj} udlvd}gut}d gke v}dnavauguajk jrd}
Vgha~ugk, Kdvg` gke Mgko`ged~c #Baot}d 4! gke ucda} }d~vdnuard mag~d~ g}d ugmt`gude ak Ugm`d >#g, m gke n! }d~vdnuard`q+
Mag~d~ jb 7? ONL~ jrd} Vgha~ugk g}d ~cjk ak Ugm`d >#g!+ Md~u uc}dd ljed`~ b}jl ucd~d 7?ONL~ jrd} Vgha~ugk g}d }gkhde auc }d~vdnu uj ucda} mag~d~+ Ak ucd ng~d jb udlvd}gut}dDNCGL4, OA^^ZD] gke LA]JN>+= ~cj ucd mag~ `d~~ ucgk 7N cd}dg~ ak ucd ng~d jb
v}dnavauguajk, VNLKNG], OA^^ZD] gke OBE@NL=+7 ~cj ucd mag~ `d~~ ucgk 2$+
1
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
20/91
ONL/~ Mag~d~ auc }d~vdnu uj N]T jrd}
Vgha~ugkONL~
^+Kj+
Udlv V}dnav
7 THLJCgeNL> =+62 73+>3
= VNLKNG] 4+2> 4+?4
> NN^L>KNG] >+>> 1=+=3
5 L]INONL=+>+= 7+?= >4+73
4 DNC GL4*LVAJL 6+?3 =?+7?
2 L`]JN>+= #ca}d~! 6+=4 71+2>
? AV^@NL5 >+53 =7+54
3 AKLNL>+6 ?+=2 =7+=4
1 OA^^ZD] 6+26 5+4=
\6 OBE@NL=+7 =+=? 7+7>
77 OBE@NL=+6 5+7= 1+?4
7= N^A]JLH>+6 >+27 55+?2
7> NK]LNL> >+?= 744+6=
75 OA^^ GJL =+23 =5+?4
74 OA^^ZDC =+4? >5+42
72 BOJG@^o7+6 =+?> 3+7=
7? L`]JN>+= #lde}d~! 6+65 76+1?
,
7+1? 6+22 7+65 7=+7?#SS!
Ugm`d >#g!9 Mag~d~ jrd} Vgha~ugk ~alt`gude mq 7?ONL~
Jrd} Kdvg` mag~d~ jb 7? ONL~ g}d ng`nt`gude gke ~cjk ak Ugm`d >#m!+ Ak ucd ng~d jb udlvd}gut}dDNCGL4, NN^L>KNG] gke OA^^ZGJL ~cj lakaltl mag~ g~ njlvg}de uj jucd}~, cd}dg~OBE@NL=+6 ~cj~ ucd `d~~ mag~ ak v}dnavauguajk+ NN^L>KNG] gke BOJG@^o 7+6 g`~j ~cj ucdlakaltl mag~ mduddk 76 uj 74$ ak ng~d jb v}dnavauguajk+
76
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
21/91
Ugm`d >#m!9 Mag~d~ jrd} Kdvg` ~alt`gude mq 7?ONL~
ONL/~ Mag~d~ wauc }d~vdnu uj N]T jrd}
ONL^ Kdvg`
/
Udlv V}dnav
7 THLJCgeNL> =+72 =4+=>
= VNLKNG] >+?2 =3+45
> NN^L> NG] 7+>? 76+43
5 L]`NONL=+>+= >+75 >3+>=
4 DNCGL4ALVAJL 6+34 42+32
2 LA]JN>+= #ca}d~! >+>4 >?+64
? IV^@NL5 >+2? 44+65
3 `KLNL>+6 2+74 27+?1
1 OA^^ZD] >+14 3>+44
76 OBE@NL=+7 5+6= 56+6?
77 OBE@NL=+6 2+6= 6+=6
7= N^I]JLH>+6 49>7 =2+25
7> NK]LNL> 5+?5 >>+42
75 O`^^ZGJL 6+44 >7+35
74 OA^^ZDC 5+56 22,+44
72 BOJG@^o7+6 =+6= 74+=>
7? LA]JN>+= #lde}d~! >+26 27+1=
,
#ss! =+51 6+?4 3+34 77+>?
Mag~d~ jb 7? ONL~ jrd} Mgko`ged~c g}d ~cjk ak Ugm`d >#n!+ Uc}dd md~u ljed`~ g}d }gkhdeb}jl 7?ONL~ auc }d~vdnu uj ucda} mag~d~+ Ak ucd ng~d jb udlvd}gut}d DNCGL4, OA^^ Z D] gkeOA^^ZDC ~cj ucd mag~ `d~~ ucgk ` N cd}dg~ lakaltl mag~ ak ak ng~d jb v}dnavauguajk a~jm~d}rde bj} OA^^ ZD] cgrako mag~ g}jtke 6+16$+
77
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
22/91
Ugm`d >#n!9 Mag~d~ jrd} Mgko`ged~c ~alt`gude mq 7?ONL~
ONL/~ Mag~d~ wauc }d~vdnu uj N]T jrd}
ONL^ Mgko`ged~c
^+Kj+
Udlv V}dnav7 THLJCgeNL> 7+=5 >2+?3
= VNL NG] >+21 55+=6
> NN^L>KNG] 7+>1 >1+67
5 L]INONL=+>+= >+4? 25+>7
4 DN]GL4*LVAJL 6+21 47+73
2 L`]JN>+= #ca}d~! >+=7 >2+6?
? AV^@NL5 =+3? 25+27
3 AKLNL>+6 ?+15 56+61
1 OA^^ZD] 6+35 6+16
76 OBE@NL=+' 74? 54+7677 OBE@NL=+6 >+7> 4>+?5
7= N^A]JLH>+6 =+77 51+11
7> NK]LNL> >+46 4=+5?
75 OA^^ZGJL 7+=2 4>+7>
74 OA^^ZDC 6+36 54+52
72 BOJG@^o7+6 >+63 24+22
7? LI]JN>+= #lde}n~! 6+5? >3+61
,
=+67 6+43 56+5? 2+?5#SS!
=+ Btut}d N`algud ncgkod V}jidnuajk~
Uj eabbd}dku ~du~ jb v}d~n}amde o}ddkcjt~d og~ bj}nako~ bj} ucd =7~u ndkut}q g}d t~de ak uca~ ~uteq,
}dv}d~dkuako g }gkod jb dla~~ajk ~ndkg}aj~9 ^]D^ G7M, gke ^]D^ G=+ Uc}dd uald ~`and~aknj}vj}guako >6qdg}~, ndkud}de jk =6=6~ #`gmd`de g~ BA!, =646~ #`gmd`de g~ B=! gke =636~
#`gmd`de g~ B>! g}d dsglakde uj ogak gk ak~aocu akuj ucd }gkod jb btut}d v}deanuajk jb
udlvd}gut}d gke v}dnavauguajk bj} G= gke G7M ~ndkg}aj~ d~ualgude b}jl ucd GJONL~+
>+7 V}jidnude ncgkod~ jrd} ^jtuc G~ag
^vguag` vguud}k~ jb v}dnavauguajk gke udlvd}gut}d bj} g`` uc}dd btut}d~ g}d ea~nt~~de jk gkktg` +mg~a~+
>+7+7 G= ^ndkg}aj
Ucd dk~dlm`d gkktg` udlvd}gut}d ncgkod~ bj} G= ~ndkg}aj ~cj gk akn}dg~d ak udlvd}gut}d jrd} ucd cj`d
}doajk #Baot}d ?!+ G~ d ljrd ujg}e~ kj}uc, ucd }a~d ak udlvd}gut}d a~ drdk lj}d, ~cjako gk akn}dg~ako
u}dke ujg}e~ kj}uc+ Bj} B 7, uca~ akn}dg~d a~ ~`aocu`q `d~~ mtu abd
7=
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
23/91
ljrd bj}g}e uj B= gke B>, udlvd}gut}d ncgkod a~ ~ddk o}getg``q akn}dg~ako gke ~cj~ g`lj~u
4N ncgkod ak udlvd}gut}d ak ng~d jb B>+ Ak ng~d jb v}dnavauguajk, ucd}d a~ kj ~aokabangku ncgkod
jm~d}rde ak B` jrd} ucd }doajk ca`d ak B=, ~lg`` akn}dg~d ak v}dnavauguajk ncgkod cg~ jnnt}}de
gke ak B> au a~ caocd} njlvg}de uj jucd} uj btut}d~+
Baot}d ?9 #g! Ldgk gkktg` dk~dlm`d ncgkod jb udlvd}gut}d #6N! gke #m! v}dnavauguajk #$! bj}BA, B= gke B> bj} G= ~ndkg}aj jrd} ^jtuc G~ag+
7>
Bj} ucd }d~t`u~ uj md lj}d v}dna~d, eabbd}dku }doajk~ jb ^jtuc G~ag akn`teako Vgha~ugk Kdvg` gkeMgko`ged~c d}d lg~hde jtu gke v}jidnude ncgkod~ d}d j}hde jtu+ Jrd} Vgha~ugk, ucd}d a~ }a~d jb
gmjtu =N jrd} Kj}ucd}k Vgha~ugk, A+4N jrd} ndku}g` vg}u~ gke jrd} njg~ug` g}dg~, }a~d ak udlvd}gut}d
a~ gmjtu 7N ak B 7, cd}dg~ udlvd}gut}d ncgkod cg~ bt}ucd} akn}dg~de ak B= gke B>
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
24/91
gke g`lj~u 4N udlvd}gut}d ncgkod a~ jm~d}rde jrd} Kj}ucd}k Vgha~ugk ak B> bj} G= ~ndkg}aj#Baot}d 3!+ Ak ng~d jb v}dnavauguajk, ucd}d a~ kj ~aokabangku ncgkod jm~d}rde jrd} Vgha~ugk~vdnabang``q jrd} Kj}ucd}k Vgha~ugk bj} g`` ucd uc}dd btut}d~ #BA, B=, gke B>!+ Ucd}d a~ gmjtu 74uj =6 $ akn}dg~d ak v}dnavauguajk jrd} ucd ed~d}u g}dg~ jb Vgha~ugk ak B>, mtu g~ ucd gljtku jb
v}dnavauguajk ak uca~ g}dg a~ njlvg}guard`q rd}q `j uc}jtocjtu ucd qdg}, ~j ucd akn}dg~d a~ kju rd}q
~aokabangku+
Baot}d 39 #g! Ldgk gkktg` dk~dlm`d ncgkod jb udlvd}gut}d #N! gke #m! v}dnavauguajk #$! bj}B` , B= gke B> bj} G= ~ndkg}aj jrd} Vgha~ugk
75
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
25/91
=+>+5+
Jrd} Mgko`ged~c, udlvd}gut}d ncgkod a~ rd}q d~~ ak B7+ Au a~ g`lj~u d~~ ucgk 7N jrd} ucd cj`d }doajk mtu
g~ d ljrd bj}g}e uj B=, ucd ncgkod ~cj~ g o}getg` akn}dg~ako vguud}k, g`lj~u =N udlvd}gut}d ncgkod a~
jm~d}rde ak ndku}g` vg}u jb Mgko`ged~c+ Ak B>, > uj 5N ncgkod a~ jm~d}rde jrd} ucd }doajk+ #Baot}d 1!+ Ak
ng~d jb v}dnavauguajk, kj ~aokabangku ncgkod a~ ~ddk jrd} Mgko`ged~c ak btut}d+
Baot}d 19 #g! Ldgk gkktg` dk~dlm`d ncgkod jb udlvd}gut}d #N! gke #m! v}dnavauguajk #$! bj} BA,B= gke B> bj} G= ~ndkg}aj jrd} Mgko`ged~c+
74
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
26/91
4+2+?+
Jrd} Kdvg`, ucd ~gld vguud}k a~ jm~d}rde g~ jrd} ucd jucd} }doajk~+ Udlvd}gut}d a~ ak akn}dg~akovguud}k ak njlako btut}d~+
Dk~dlm`d udlvd}gut}d ncgkod jb 7> ONL~ }gkod~ b}jl 7 uj 7+4N ak B`+ G`lj~u 5 uj 5+4N ncgkod a~jm~d}rde ak ucd `g~u btut}d #B>! jrd} ucd }doajk g~ ~cjk ak Baot}d 76+
Baot}d 769 #g! Ldgk gkktg` dk~dlm`d ncgkod jb udlvd}gut}d #N! gke #m! v}dnavauguajk #$! bj}BA, B= gke B> bj} G= ~ndkg}aj jrd} Kdvg`+
>+7+= G7M ^ndkg}aj
Ucd dk~dlm`d gkktg` udlvd}gut}d ncgkod~ jb 7?ONL~ bj} G`M ~ndkg}aj ~cj gk akn}dg~ako u}dke jbudlvd}gut}d jrd} ucd cj`d }doajk+ Ucd}d a~ g njkuakde akn}dg~d ak ucd ncgkod~ g~ d ljrd tvg}eujg}e~ kj}uc jrd} ^jtuc G~ag+ G o}getg` akn}dg~d a~ jm~d}rde bj} eabbd}dku btut}d~ gke B> a~ g}ld}ucgk BI gke B=+ Bj} BA, udlvd}gut}d akn}dg~d a~ ~`aocu`q `d~~ mtu ab d ljrd bj}g}e uj B= gke B>,udlvd}gut}d ncgkod a~ ~ddk o}getg``q akn}dg~ako gke ~cj~ g`lj~u 5 uj 5+^jN ncgkod ak B> g~ ~cjk akBaot}d 77+ Ak ng~d jb v}dnavauguajk, ucd}d a~ kj ~aokabangku ncgkod jm~d}rde ak g`` uc}dd btut}d~ #BA, B=gke B>! jrd} ucd }doajk+
72
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
27/91
Baot}d 779 #g! Ldgk gkktg` dk~dlm`d ncgkod jb udlvd}gut}d #N! gke #m! v}dnavauguajk #$! bj} B 7,
B= gke B> bj} G`M ~ndkg}aj jrd} ^jtuc G~ag
Jrd} Vgha~ugk, G`M ~cj~ g `d~~ udlvd}gut}d ncgkod g~ njlvg}de uj G= ~ndkg}aj+ Ucd}d a~ g
}a~d jb g}jtke 7+2N jrd} Kj}ucd}k Vgha~ugk, gke gmjtu 7+5N jrd} ndku}g` vg}u~ #Vtkigm
v}jraknd! gke jrd} njg~ug` g}dg~+ Ucd }a~d ak udlvd}gut}d a~ g}jtke 7+>N ak B7 cd}dg~ uca~akn}dg~d~ ak B= gke g`lj~u 5N udlvd}gut}d ncgkod a~ jm~d}rde jrd} Kj}ucd}k Vgha~ugk ak B>
bj} G`M ~ndkg}aj #Baot}d 7= g!+
Ak ng~d jb v}dnavauguajk, ucd}d a~ kj ~aokabangku ncgkod jm~d}rde jrd} Vgha~ugk ~vdnabang``q jrd} Kj}ucd}k
Vgha~ugk bj} g`` uc}dd btut}d~ #BA, B=, gke B>! #Baot}d 7= m!+
7?
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
28/91
3+
Baot}d 7=9 #g! Ldgk gkktg` dk~dlm`d ncgkod jb udlvd}gut}d #N! gke #m! v}dnavauguajk #$! bj} B`,B= gke B> bj} G`M ~ndkg}aj jrd} Vgha~ugk+
Jrd} Mgko`ged~c, udlvd}gut}d ncgkod a~ wtaud d~~ ak B`+ Au a~ g`lj~u d~~ ucgk 7N jrd} ucd cj`d }doajk mtug~ d ljrd bj}g}e uj B=, uca~ ncgkod a~ ~ddk o}getg``q akn}dg~ako, g`lj~u =N udlvd}gut}d ncgkod a~
jm~d}rde ak ndku}g` vg}u~ jb Mgko`ged~c+ Ak B>, g`lj~u >N ncgkod a~ ~ddk jrd} ucd }doajk+ #Baot}d7>!+ Akng~d jb v}dnavauguajk, kj ~aokabangku ncgkod a~ ~ddk jrd} Mgko`ged~c ak btut}d+
73
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
29/91
Baot}d 7>9 #g! Ldgk gkktg` dk~dlm`d ncgkod jb udlvd}gut}d #N! gke #m! v}dnavauguajk #$! bj} B`,
B= gke B> bj} G7M ~ndkg}aj jrd} Mgko`ged~c
71
Jrd} Kdvg`, ucd ~gld vguud}k a~ jm~d}rde g~ jrd} ucd jucd} }doajk~+ Udlvd}gut}d cg~ gk akn}dg~ako vguud}k ak
njlako btut}d~+ Dk~dlm`d udlvd}gut}d ncgkod jb 7? ONL~ }gkod~ mduddk 7 uj 7+?N ak B`+ G`lj~u 5 uj5+4N ncgkod a~ jm~d}rde ak ucd `g~u btut}d #B>! jrd} ucd }doajk g~ ~cjk ak Baot}d 75+ Kj ~aokabangku
ncgkod a~ jm~d}rde ak v}dnavauguajk+
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
30/91
1+76+77+
PP
Baot}d 759 #g! Ldgk gkktg` dk~dlm`d ncgkod jb udlvd}gut}d #N!gke #m! v}dnavauguajk #$! bj}BA, B= gke B> bj} G7M ~ndkg}aj jrd} Kdvg`
>+= V}jidnuajk~ jrd} Vgha~ugk gke au~ Kj}ucd}k gke ^jtucd}k vg}u~
Cd}d grd}god rg`td~ jrd} gnutg` odjo}gvcang` g}dg~ jb Vgha~ugk, Kj}ucd}k gke ^jtucd}k vg}u~ jbVgha~ugk #Baot}d 74!, g}d j}hde jtu uj odu g lj}d }dbakde vanut}d jb btut}d ncgkod~+ Cd}d BCK gkeBC^ }dv}d~dku kj}ucd}k gke ~jtucd}k vg}u~ jb Vgha~ugk }d~vdnuard q+Ak Gkkds+ AAA gke AR ~dg~jkg` gke ljkuc`q ldgk~ rg`td~ g}d ugmt`gude bj} ucd~d }doajk~+
V}jidnude udlvd}gut}d ncgkod~ jrd} Kj}ucd}k Vgha~ugk, ~alt`gude mq 7? ONL~ gke ucda} dk~dlm`drg`td~ g}d `a~ude ak Ugm`d 5 bj} mjuc G= gke G AM ~ndkg}aj~+ Ak =636~, ucd }a~d ak udlvd}gut}d a~ 5+2?Nbj} G= ~ndkg}aj cd}dg~ ak G7M ucd ncgkod a~ 5+7=N+ G`~j ucd d}}j} g~~jnagude auc ucd dk~dlm`dudlvd}gut}d ncgkod a~ kju rd}q caoc gke }dlgak~ md`j 76$ bj} g`` btut}d~ gke bj} mjuc G=" G7M~ndkg}aj~+
=6
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
31/91
Baot}d 749 O}ae~ njrd}ako #g! Vgha~ugk, #m! Kj}ucd}k Vgha~ugk #BCK! gke #n! ^jtucd}k Vgha~ugk #BC^!
Ugm`d 59 V}jidnude Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~ U #N! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Kj}ucd}k Vgha~ugk
ONL~G= G7M
=6=6~ =646~ =636~ =6=6~ =646~ =636~
THLJCgeNL> 7+73 =+2> 5+36 7+=2 =+12 5+==
VNLKNG] 6+34 7+26 >+76 7+61 =+64 =+?2
NN^L>KNG] 7+44 =+2= 5+52 7+41 =+1> >+5>
L]ANONL=+>+= 7+7= =+>> >+36 7+47 =+2> >+2>
DNCGL4*LVAJL 7+=6 =+24 4+57 7+45 >+54 4+>3
LA]JN>+= #ca}d~! 7+1= >+>? 4+71 7+?3 >+44 4+62
AV^@NL5 7+=3 =+?6 5+15 7+46 =+1? 5+47
AKLNL>+6 7+1> >+>4 4+63 =+6> >+>1 5+6>
OA^^ D] 7+5= =+2> 5+=3 7+56 =+23 >+3=
OBE@NL=+7 7+?? >+77 4+>4 7+3= >+51 5+22
OBE@NL=+6 7+31 >+?= 2+77 =+76 >+34 4+=7
N^A]6?LH>+6 7+=> =+72 >+?5 7+77 7+13 >+6?
NK]LNL> 7+72 =+45 5+53 7+54 =+25 >+?=
OA^^ GJL,,,
,,,
,,, 7+7? =+45 >+=>
OA^^ DC ,,,,,, ,,, 7+?5 =+?= >+12
BOJG@^o7+6 ,,, 6+34 =+74 >+=>LA]JN>+= #lde}d~! ,,,
,,, ,,, =+54 5+=5 2+71
,
#S S! 7+5= 6+76 =+?= 6+72 5+2? 6+=> 7+44 6+76 =+14 6+74 5+7= 6+=>
=7
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
32/91
Ak Ugm`d 4, v}jidnude v}dnavauguajk ncgkod~ jrd} Kj}ucd}k Vgha~ugk g}d ugmt`gude+ Ucd}d a~ kj~aokabangku ncgkod jm~d}rde ak g`` uc}dd btut}d~ bj} mjuc G= gke G7M ~ndkg}aj+ Ak lj~u jb ucd ng~d~,ucd tknd}ugakuad~ g}d caocd} ucdk ucd gnutg` ncgkod~+
Ugm`d 49 V}jidnude V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~ G7 #$!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Kj}ucd}k Vgha~ugk
ONL~G= G`M
=6=6~ =646~ =636~ =6=6~ =646~ =636~
THLJCgeNL> 7>+?= =7+76 ?+31 1+63 7+42 1+>4
VNLKNG] 76+6> =6+17 74+11 ?+4? 1+54 74+52
NN^L>KNG] 76+76 7?+51 =5+42 1+14 7=+=7 73+13
L]ANONL=+>+= 7>+77 75+=1 77+3> =+3? 3+>2 76+==
DNCGL4'LVAJL 5+35 =+7= 5+?1 4+>5 7?+35 72+52
LA]JN>+= #ca}d~! =+>= >+6> 76+73 7+45 ?+57 2+>5
AV^@NL5 6+== 6+71 7+51 6+55 1+27 5+?7
AKLNL>+6 7=+=4 77+74 =7+=4 7>+2> 75+5= =2+66
OA^^ D] 7+67 6+6= 4+22 6+>2 7+5= >+44OBE@NL=+7 5+5? 4+>? 7>+32 3+31 77+6> 7=+>3
OBE@NL=+6 3+?= 7>+5? ==+61 2+=? 7>+7? 74+75
N^A]JLH>+6 2+=6 4+76 ?+15 7+=> >+?4 3+2>
NK]LNL> =+54 =+1= 4+56 6+51 >+?= ?+=?
OA^^ GJL 6+21 6+75 2+31
OA^^ DC =+7? 6+76 2+72
BOJG@^o 7+6 >+>1 6+=7 3+14
LA]JN>+= #lde}d~! =+32 2+77 76+52
,
#S{S! =+== =+=1 >+27 >+=7 7+7> >+14 6+?57+53 7+?3=+I 3 6+?>>+63
Jrd} jtucd}k Vgha~ugk, ucd }a~d ak udlvd}gut}d gu ucd dke jb uca~ ndkut}q jt`e md g}jtke 5+==N bj}G= ~ndkg}aj auc gk d}}j} jb 6+73N, cd}dg~ bj} G7M ~ndkg}aj, uca~ }a~d jt`e md gmjtu >+?>N aucucd ~gld d}}j} g~ bj} G=+ #Ugm`d 2!
Ak Ugm`d ?, v}jidnude v}dnavauguajk ncgkod~ jrd} jtucd}k Vgha~ugk g}d ugmt`gude+ Mdngt~d jb ucd g}odd}}j}~ g~~jnagude auc mjuc ucd ~ndkg}aj~, kj kdu njkn`t~ajk gmjtu v}dnavauguajk akn}dg~d j} edn}dg~dngk md e}gk+
Grd}gode udlvd}gut}d rg`td~ jrd} cj`d jb Vgha~ugk g}d ~tllg}ayde ak Ugm`d 3+ Ucd}d a~ g o}getg`akn}dg~d ak udlvd}gut}d tv uj 5+>3N bj} G= gke >+3?N bj} G7M ~ndkg}aj gu ucd dke jb uca~ ndkut}q+
Ak Ugm`d 1, v}jidnude v}dnavauguajk ncgkod~ jrd} Vgha~ugk g}d ugmt`gude+ G`ucjtoc ucd akearaetg`ONL~ g}d v}jidnuako eabbd}dku v}dnavauguajk ncgkod~ mtu ucd dk~dlm`d rg`td~, mdngt~d jb ucd `g}od
d}}j}~, g}d kju ~cjako gkq ~aokabangku edn}dg~d j} akn}dg~d jb v}dnavauguajk bj} mjuc ~ndkg}aj~+
==
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
33/91
Ugm`d 29 V}jidnude Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} jtucd}k Vgha~ugk
ONL~
G= G`M
=6=6~ =646~ =636~ =6=6~ =646~ =636~
THLJCgeNL> 7+7= =+57 5+7? 7+65 =+>1 >+22
VNLKNG] 6+?5 7+>2 =+24 6+31 7+?? =+5=NN^AP7>KNG] 7+=6 =+=7 >+?1 7+>6 =+46 =+15
L]`NONL=+>+= 7+63 =+=5 >+2? 7+=? =+51 >+57
DNCGL^ALVAJL 7+6= =+5> 5+3? 7+>5/ =+1= 5+?>
LA]JN>+= #ca}d~\ 7+>2 =+43 5+>2 7+5= =+?2 5+74
AV^@NL5 7+72 =+>3 5+26 7+5> =+?> 5+=7
AKLNL>+6 7+?4 >+73 5+35 7+12 >+73 >+17
OI^^ZD] 7+=> =+57 5+7= 7+>6 =+22 >+24
OBE@NL=+7 7+4? =+3> 5+?5 7+?5 >+7= 5+==
OBE@NL=+6 7+?5 >+7> 4+67 7+?2 >+=4 5+5=
N^A]JLH>+6 7+7? =+76 >+2> 6+1? 7+3= =+1>
NK]LNL> 7+76 =+53 5+5? 7+>? =+46 >+24
O}^^ GJL 7+71 =+=2 >+77OA^^ DC
,,,7+26 =+47 >+41
BOJG@^o`+J ,,, ,,, 6+17 =+61 >+6=
LA]JN>+= #lde}d~! ,,, ,,, ,,, =+=4 >+3> 4+>?
,
#S s! 7+=4 6+63 =+55 6+7> 5+== 6+73 7+56 6+61 =+25 6+7> >+?> 6+73
Ugm`d ?9 V}jidnude V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} ^jtucd}k Vgha~ugk
ONL~ G= G`M
=6=6~ =646~ =636~ =6=6~ =646~ =636~
THLJCgeNL> 7?+72 =4+42 7>+11 75+16 7=+22 72+?3
VNLKNG] 7?+>6 4>+35 41+57 =5+33 >?+=7 46+72
NN^L>KNG] 72+2> =3+47 5=+42 73+26 ==+1> >=+>5
L]INONL=+>+= >6+7> =3+1> >6+46 7+41 ?+24 46+6=
DNCGL^bLVAJL >+7= 2+?2 72+1? =5+2> 6+3= >3+6=
LA]JN>+= #ca}d~! 1+=> >+4= 77+26 6+47 4+?4 6+71
AV^@NL5 7=+6> 7=+72 =?+?3 =6+?5 >+7? 7=+65
AKLNL>+6 77+=4 4+36 =+>5 77+7> 6+63 7=+1>
OA^^ D] 75+?3 7+21 76+?6 2+=2 72+74 77+2>
OBE@NL=+7 =5+66 =?+37 5>+57 >=+66 >2+56 56+?6
OBE@NL=+6 >5+?3 4>+2> 22+7 = =5+61 51+21 41+37
N^A]JLH>+6 ?+67 77+=7 =+2> 3+42 71+31 2+?>
NK]LNL> =+41 ?+7? 7=+6= 7+15 7=+37 1+>5
OA^^ GJL ,,, ,,, 7+== =4+56 >4+1>
OA^^ZDC ,,, ,,, ,,, =>+52 =>+74 54+62
BOJG@^o7+6 ,,, ,,, ,,, 7>+37 >+7= >+35LbbaJN>+= #lde}d~! ,,, ,,, =6+=7 73+I3 76+52
,
#S s! >+64 4+7= 2+56 ?+53 5+=3 1+52 >+=6 5+>7 6+>= 4+4> 6+31?+17
=>
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
34/91
,+
Ugm`d 39 V}jidnude Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~ U #N! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Vgha~ugk
ONL~G= G`M
=6=6~ =646~ =636~ =6=6~ =646~ =636~
THLJCgeNL> 7+75 =+51 5+>1 7+7= =+43 >+34VNLKNG] 6+?3 7+55 =+37 6+12 7+32 =+45
NN^L>KNG] 7+>= =+>4 5+6= X+56 =+24 >+7 X
L]INONL=+>+= 7+61 =+=? >+?7 7+>2 =+45 >+53
DNCGL4*LVAJL 7+63 =+47 4+64 7+57 >+77 5+14
LA]JN>+= #ca}d~! 7+44 =+32 5+24 7+44 >+6> 5+5?
AV^@NL5 7+=6 =+51 5+?= 7+54 =+37 5+>7
AKLNL>+6 7+37 >+=5 5+1= 7+13 >+=4 >+14
OA^^ D] 7+=1 =+51 5+73 7+>5 =+2? >+?7
OBE@NL=+7 7+25 =+1> 5+14 7+?? >+=4 5+>?
OBE@NL=+6 7+?1 >+>> 4+>1 7+33 >+52 5+?6
N^`]JLH>+6 7+71 =+7= >+2? 7+67 7+33 =+13
NK]LNL> 7+7= =+46 5+5? 7+56 =+44 >+2?
OA^^ GJL ,,, 7+73 =+>2 >+74
OA^^ DC,,, ,,, 7+24 =+43 >+?=
BOJG@^A'7+6 ,,, ,Z+, ,,, 6+31 =+7 A >+61LA]JN>+= #lde}d~!
,,, ,,, =+>= >+1? 4+24,
#S s! `+>76+71 =+45 6+>7 5+>3 6+55 7+54 6+61 =+?4 6+75 >+3? 6+=6
Ugm`d 19 V}jidnude V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Vgha~ugk
ONL~
G= G7M
=6=6~ =646~ =636~ =6=6~ =646~ =636~
THLJCgeNL> 75+?6 ==+>? 1+2> 76+?> 5+?= 77+52
VNLKNG] 75+71 >1+?5 56+3= 7?+5? =4+>= >4+>6
NN^L>KNG] 7>+16 =>+16 >4+65 75+13 73+54 =2+?2
L]ANONL=+>+= 72+>> 7?+62 74+>2 =+2> 3+== 7?+?4
DNCGL4ALVAJL 5+56 >+>= ?+15 76+>= 7>+54 ==+6>
LA]6N>+= #ca}d~! 4+66 >+== 76+?> 6+?4 2+?? Z>+12
AV^@NL5 =+4= =+4= 5+=7 5+>1 ?+7> 7+54
AK-LNL>+6 77+33 5+35 75+=7 /7=+?6 1+63 =7+75
OA^^ D] 4+12 6+2= ?+53 =+6= 2+?= 2+52
OBE@NL=+7 I 6+72 77+17 ==+5? 74+2= 73+5= =6+2=
OBE@NL=+6 74+6> =>+73 >=+?5 76+43 ==+66 =4+14
N^A]JLH>+6 =+26 2+?? 4+62 7+55 3+74 5+55
NK]LNIR`> =+4> 4+>? 1+=7 6+17 3+14 3+52
OA^^ZGJL ,,,,,,
6+?? >+3> 77+56
OA^^DC ,,, 76+76 3+21 =6+24
BOJG@^o7+6 ,,, ,,, ?+2> 7+75 >+?4
L`]JN>+=4+35 >+64 =+4?
#lde}d~`,,,
+ ,,,
,
#S s! =+?1 =+15 4+4> 5+2> >+53 4+?3 7+=1 =+>= 6+1? >+64 6+5 5+>2
=5
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
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>+=+7 V}jidnuajk~ jrd} go}j n`alguan yjkd~ jb Vgh7~ugk
Uj g~~d~~ ucd ncgkod~ ak udlvd}gut}d gke v}dnavauguajk jrd} ucd go}j n`alguan yjkd~ jb Vgha~ugk #G~ vd}}dwta}dldku jb Go}ant`ut}d ~dnuajk jb ONA^N!, bjt} go}j n`alguan yjkd~ ud}lde g~ BCG #Ctlae*^tm
Ctlae!, BCM #^dlag}ae!, BCN #G}ae! gke BCE #Cqvd} G}ae! }d~vdnuard`q d}d njk~aed}de #Gkkds A!+
Gbud} gkg`q~a~, au g~ bjtke ucgu ucd }d~t`u~ bj} BCG gke BCM d}d kju ~aokabangku`q eabbd}dku v}jmgm`q etd
uj ucd njg}~d }d~j`tuajk jb ONL~+ ala`g}`q ucd }d~t`u~ bj} BCN gke BCE g`~j jjhde aedkuang` aucak ucda}
tknd}ugakuad~+ ^j ucd }d~t`u~ g}d oardk cd}d jk`q bj} ucd njlmakguajk jb }doajk~ BCG gke BCM #`gmd`de g~
BCGM Ctlae*^tm ctlae gke ^dla G}ae! gke ucgu jb }doajk~ BCN gke BCE #`gmd`de g~ BCNE G}ae gke
Cqvd} G}ae! g~ ~cjk ak Baot}d 72+ ]d~t`u~ jrd} ucd~d bjt} }doajk~ g}d ugmt`gude ak Gkkds 7+ G`~j ak Gkkds+
AAA gke AR ~dg~jkg` gke ljkuc`q ldgk~ rg`td~ g}d ugmt`gude+
Btut}d ncgkod jrd} go}jn`alguan yjkd~ ak Vgha~ugk ~cj~ ucgu ucd udlvd}gut}d a`` }a~d tv uj 5+?7jN bj}
G= ~ndkg}aj gke 5+72N bj} G7M ~ndkg}aj g~ ~cjk ak Ugm`d 76+
,+
Baot}d 729 #g! BCGM #Ctlae*^tmctlae gke dla G}ae n`algud! yjkd gke #m! BCNE #G}ae Cqvd}G}ae n`algud! yjkd jb Vgha~ugk
V}jidnude udlvd}gut}d ncgkod~ jrd} BCNE #G}ae " Cqvd}g}ae go}jn`alguan! yjkd a~ ugmt`gude ak Ugm`d
77+ Ak =636~ ucd, }a~d ak udlvd}gut}d a~ 5+=2 N bj} G= ~ndkg}aj cd}dg~ ak G7M, ucd }a~d a~ >+?2N+
V}jidnude v}dnavauguajk ncgkod~ eabbd} ak lgokauted mtu ucd}d a~ kj ~aokabangku ncgkod ak v}dnavauguajk jrd}
BCGM #Ctlae' ~tmctlae " ~dlag}ae go}jn`alguan! yjkd bj} mjuc G= gke G7M ~ndkg}aj~ #Ugm`d 7=!+^gld a~ ucd ng~d bj} BCNE #G}ae " Cqvd}g}ae Go}jn`alguan! yjkd+ Ucd}d a~ kj ~aokabangku ncgkod ak
v}dnavauguajk bj} mjuc ~ndkg}aj~+ #Ugm`d 7>!
=4
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
36/91
Ugm`d 769 V}jidnude Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} BCGM #Ctlae*
^tmctlae " ^dlag}ae Go}jn`alguan Yjkd!
ONL~G= G7M
=6=6~ =646~ =636~ =6=6~ =646~ =636~THLJMgeNL> 7+7? =+2= 5+?1 7+=? =+1? 5+==
VNLKNG] 6+33 7+24 >+73 7+7> =+77 =+3>
NN^L>KNG] 7+2= =+?= 5+2= 7+24 >+6> >+45
L]ANONL=+>+= 7+7= =+>7 >+?1 7+47 =+27 >+2=
DNCGL4bLVAJL 7+=7 =+24 4+5> 7+4> >+53 4+57
LA]JN>+= #ca}d~! 7+14 >+5= 4+=> 7+?1 >+26 4+7=
AV^@NL5 7+=3 =+?> 5+1= 7+51 =+1? 5+51
AKLNL>+6 =+66 >+55 4+=7 =+62 >+5? 5+72
OA^^ZD] 7+5> =+2= 5+=? 7+56 =+22 >+37
OBE@NL`+` 7+?4 >+61 4+>3 7+?1 >+51 5+24
OBE@NL=+6 7+31 >+?2 2+71 =+77 >+32 4+=1
N^A]JLH>+6 7+== =+74 >+?= 7+76 7+13 >+6?
NK]LNL> 7+7? =+4? 5+53 7+54 =+2? >+?>
OA^^ GJL ,,, ,,, 7+72 =+44 >+==OA^^ DC ,,, ,,, ,,, 7+?= =+?7 >+12
BOJG@^o`+6 ,,, ,,, ,,, 6+32 =+7? >+=2
LA]JN>+= #lde}d~! ,,, ,,, =+55 5+=2 2+=1
#S s!
7+55 6+76 =+?4 6+72 5+?7 6+=> 7+42 6+76 =+13 6+72 5+72 6+=>
Ugm`d 779 V}jidnude Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} BCNE #G}ae "Cqvd}g}ae Go}jn`alguan Yjkd!
ONL~
G= G`M
=6=6~ =646~ =636~ =6=6~ =646~ =636~
THLJCgeNL> 7+7> =+5> 5+=5 7+62 =+55 >+?=
VNLKNG] 6+?5 7+>2 =+2? 6+31 7+?? =+5=
NN^L>KNG] 7+=6 =+=6 >+?3 7+>6 =+46 =+1>
L]ANONL=+>+= 7+63 =+=4 >+23 7+>6 =+47 >+5>
DNCGL4bLVAJL 7+65 =+54 5+1> 7+>? =+11 5+37
LA]JN>+= #ca}d~! 7+57 =+24 5+5= 7+52 =+3= 5+==
AV^@NL5 7+7? =+5= 5+22 7+55 =+?? 5+=2
AKLNL>+6 7+?5 >+7? 5+3= 7+14 >+73 >+33
OA^^ D] 7+=5 =+5> 5+75 7+>6 =+2? >+2?
OBE@NL=+7 7+26 =+3? 5+37 7+?? >+7? 5+=1
OBE@NL`+J 7+?? >+== 4+74 7+37 >+>5 5+4=
N^A]JLH>+6 7+73 =+77 >+24 6+13 7+35 =+12
NA/P/]LNL> 7+61 =+5? 5+52 7+>3 =+46 >+25
OA^^ GJL ,,, ,,, 7+71 =+>6 >+7>
OA^^ DC ,,, ,,, ,,, 7+2= =+45 >+25
BOJG@^o7+6 ,,, ,,, ,,, 6+16 =+61 >+6>
L`]JN>+= #lde}d~! ,,, ,,, ,,, =+=? >+34 4+56
,
#S s ! 7+=26+63 =+52 6+7> 5+=2 6+71 7+57 6+61 =+22 6+7> >+?2 6+71
=2
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
37/91
Ugm`d 7=9 V}jidnude V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} BCGM #Ctlae*~tmctlae " ^dlag}ae Go}jn`alguan Yjkd!
ONL~G= G`M
=6=6~ =646~ =636~ =6=6~ =646~ =636~
THLJCgeNL>,
, 7>+=7 =6+>5 3+>? 1+6= 7+55 1+5?,
VNLKNG] 2+56 7=+41 3+>4 =+?6 >+5> ?+56
NN^L>KNG] 3+21 74+?> =7+22 3Z33 76+36 72+?2
L]ANONL=+>+= 77+14 7>+13 7=+47 =+=4 1+>7 1+1?
DN]GL4*LVAJL 5+?4 =+6? 4+67 5+64 73+65 74+?6
LA]JN>+= #ca}d~! =+65 =+75 76+>? =+64 2+35 4+2=
AV^@NL5 6+?4 6+=3 =+>4 6+62 76+66 4+==
AKLNL >+6 77+51 76+>? =6+27 7>+=5 7>+2? =4+73
OA^^ D] 6+15 6+?3 >+4= 6+61 6+46 =+6>
OBE@NL=+7 5+=? 5+?3 7>+7= 3+77 76+4> 77+=4
OBE@NL=+6 ?+13 77+27 =6+73 4+=4 77+25 7>+?5
N^A]JLH>+6 2+4> 4+== 3+?2 6+37 >+== 1+45
NK]LNL> =+=7 =+=7 2+2= 6+15 =+45 2+1=
OA^^ GJL 6+36 6+45 2+=1
OA^^ D] 6+3= 7+55 >+57
BOJG@^o +6 >+=4 6+25 3+1?
LA]JN>+= #lde}d~! + 5+3? 3+5? 7>+4?,
#SS! 7+?4 =+61 >+64 =+?3 6+17 >+27 6+46 7+>4 7+3? =+62 6+22 =Z32
Ugm`d 7>9 V}jidnude V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ ]doajk BCNE #G}ae "Cqvd}g}ae Go}jn`alguan Yjkd!
ONL~
G= G7M
=6=6~ =646~ =636~ =6=6~ =646~ =636~
THLJ]geNL> 71+27 =1Z62 72+2? 74+4> 75+25 71+62
VNLKNG] 73+71 45+=5 4?+=4 =4+56 >2+?= 46+>=
NN^L>KNG] 7?+72 =3+?> 5=+37 73+>= =>+76 >>Z6>
L]ANONL=+>+= =3+=7 =4+11 =>+62 5+=? 2+=1 >?+43
DN]GL4ALVAJL 5+51 4+16 7=+?5 ==+32 5+1? >4+76
LA]JN>+= #ca}d~! ?+1= 5+16 76+26 7+>7 2+?? >+6?
AV^@NL5 1+15 1+=? =7+21 74+?? 7+57 3+=6
AKLNL>+6 7=+?6 7+22 ?+>4 7=+>5 >+14 7?+74
OA^^ D] 77+2= 7+6> `A+53 4+77 7>+54 76+?=
OBE@NL=+7 =6+3> =5+2? >1+1? =3+?1 >>+== >3+75
OBEA,NL=+6 >7+74 46+4= 2=+31 =5+=> 52+45 44+=>
N^A]JLS>+6 5+11 76+>3 7+25 4+12 71+>6 5+3=NK]LNL> =+43 ?+64 77+65 6+1? 7=+=4 1+4?
OA^^ GJL ,,, ,,, 6+>1 =6+74 >7+=6
OA^^ DC ,,, ,,, ,,, =6+3= =6+46 56+>=
BOJG@^o`+J ,,, ,,, ,,, 7>+6? >+66 7+1>
LA]6N>+= #lde}d~! ,,, ,,, 73+26 72+23 77+=6
,
#S S! >+72 5+36 2+=2 ?+=? >+2= 3+16 >+475+6= 6+?7 4+73 7+52 ?+=3
=?
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
38/91
++
>+=+= V}jidnuajk~ jb wgud}~cde mg~ak~ jb Aket~ }ard} ~q~udl
G~ vd} }dwta}dldku jb ucd ONA^N _gud} ^dnuajk, Vgha~ugk a~ earaede akuj uc}dd gud} ~cde mg~ak~ #Gkkds
AA!+ Mtu gogak ak rad jb ucd njg}~d} }d~j`tuajk jb ONL~, uc}dd gud} ~cde~ d}d ld}ode akuj uj }doajk~ g~
~cjk ak Baot}d 7?+ Ak Gkkds AA, d cgrd ugmt`gude rg`td~ bj} g`` ucd uc}dd gud} ~cde~ ~dvg}gud`q+ G`~j ak
Gkkds+ AAA gke AR ~dg~jkg` gke ljkuc`q ldgk~ rg`td~ g}d ugmt`gude+
Baot}d 7? }dv}d~dku~ ucd uj gud}~cde mg~ak~ jk Aket~ }ard} ~q~udl+ Ucd ba}~u gud} ~cde njlv}a~d~ Hgmt`
gke Icd`tl }ard} nguncldku~ gke ucd ~dnjke jkd nj}}d~vjke~ uj ucd cj`d gud} ~cde jb }ard} Aket~+
Baot}d 7?9 _gud} ~cde njlv}a~d~ #g! Hgmt` gke Icd`tl }ard} nguncldku~ gke #m! ucdcj`d gud} ~cde jb }ard} Aket~+
Ugm`d 75 ~cj~ ucd v}jidnude udlvd}gut}d ncgkod~ jrd} Hgmt` " Icd`tl mg~ak+ Gu ucd dke jb uca~ ndkut}q,}a~d ak udlvd}gut}d a~ 5+?3N bj} G= ~ndkg}aj, cd}dg~ ak G7M ucd }a~d a~ 5+=6N+ V}jidnude udlvd}gut}d
ncgkod jrd} cj`d gud} mg~ak a~ 5+37N bj} G= ~ndkg}aj cd}dg~ ak G7M ucd }a~d a~ 5+=1N ~alt`gude mq
dk~dlm`d jb 7? ONL~ #Ugm`d 74!+
V}jidnude v}dnavauguajk ncgkod~ jrd} Hgmt` gke Icd`tl g}d ugmt`gude ak Ugm`d 72+ Kj n`dg} ntu vanut}d ngk
md e}gk mdngt~d jb j vd}ndkugod ncgkod~ gke odkd}g``q g}od tknd}ugakuad~ g~~jnagude auc ucdl+
Ak Ugm`d 7?, v}jidnude v}dnavauguajk ncgkod~ jrd} ucd gud} mg~ak #Hgmt`, Icd`tl gke Aket~ }ard}! g}d
ugmt`gude+ Gogak ucd vd}ndkugod ncgkod a~ kju ~aokabangku bj} mjuc G= gke G7M ~ndkg}aj~+
=3
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
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Ugm`d 759
++V}jidnude Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Hgmt` " Icd`tl
ONL~
G= G7M
=6=6~ =646~ =636~ =6=6~ =646~ =636~
THLJCgeNL> 7+=1 =+3> 4+76 7+5= >+== 5+47
VNLKNG] 6+31 7+23 >+7= 7+74 =+76 =+36
NN^L>KNG] 7+?= =+33 5+?7 7+?6 >+75 >+2?
L]ANONL=+>+= 7+74 =+>2 >+?3 7+47 =+27 >+2=
DNCGL4ALVAJL 7+=> =+?= 4+5= 7+45 >+4> 4+>2
LA]JN>+= #ca}d~! =+6? >+44 4+>? 7+16 >+?= 4+=2
AV^@NL5 7+>5 =+36 4+75 7+27 >+`I 5+?6
AKLNL>+6 =+64 >+5> 4+76 =+7> >+5? 5+6?
OA^^ D] 7+47 =+?> 5+57 7+53 =+?2 >+17
OBE@NL=+7 7+3= >+72 4+>1 7+36 >+45 5+?6
OBE@NL=+6 7+31 >+?5 2+72 =+7> >+32 4+=7
N^A]JLH>+6 7+=5 =+73 >+3= 7+7= =+67 >+77
NK]LNL> 7+=6 =+2> 5+43 7+47 =+?2 >+3>OA^^ GJL ,,, 7+7= =+44 >+==
OA^^ DC ,,, 7+?1 =+?5 >+1?
BOJG@^o7+6 ,,, ,,, ,,, 6+3> =+7> >+73
LA]JN>+= #lde}d~! ,,, ,,, =+4? 5+57 2+=1,
#SS! 7+51 6+76 =+3= 6+72 5+?3 6+=> 7+276+76 >+656+72 5+=6 6+=>
Ugm`d 749 V}jidnude Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} _gud} Mg~ak#Hgmt`, Icd`tl gke Aket~ ]ard}!
ONL~G= G7M
=6=6~ =646~ =636~ =6=6~ =646~ =636~
THLJCgeNL> 7+=2 =+?2 5+12 7+56 >+74 5+57
VNLKNG] 6+1= 7+?? >+=? 7+7? =+75 =+1=
NN^L>KNG] 7+15 >+== 4+=1 7+1= >+51 5+6?
L]ANONL=+>+= 7+61 =+=1 >+36 7+46 =+2= >+2>
DNCGL4*LVAJL 7+74 =+22 4+57 7+5? >+56 4+=?
LA]JN>+= #ca}d~! =+65 >+25 4+42 7+31 >+?1 4+>?
AV^@NL5 7+=3 =+?7 5+36 7+47 =+31 5+>3
AKLNL>+6 =+7= >+4= 4+52 =+7? >+2> 5+5=
OA^^ D] 7+43 =+?> 5+52 7+45 =+?5 >+1=
OBE@NL=+7 7+?2 >+71 4+52 7+3= >+45 5+21
OBE@NL=+6 7+3= >+24 2+6> =+64 >+?5 4+7?
N^A]JLH>+6 7+=6 =+74 >+?7 7+74 =+67 >+64
NK]LNL> 7+74 =+53 5+>5 7+5= =+26 >+2=
OA^^ZGJL , + ,,, ,,, 7+7? =+42 >+=4
OA^^ DC ++ , ++,,,
7+24 =+21 >+17
BOJG@^o7+6 ,,, ,,, ,,, 6+1= =+=> >+>4
LA]JN>+= #}jne}d~! ,,, ,,, ,,, =+?2 4+6? ?+43,
#sS! 7+53 6+77 =+3>6+72 5+37 6+=> 7+2= 6+77 >+63 6+71 5+=1 6+=?
=1
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
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Ugm`d 729 V}jidnude V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Hgmt` " Icd`tl krd}
ONL~
G= G7M
=6=6~ =646~ =636~ =6=6~ =646~ =636~THLJCgeNL> 76+36 7?+37 6+7> 2+34 >+4= 5+27
VNLKNG] 4+63 3+6> 5+5? 6+>6 7+6> 7+>5
NN^L>KNG] 76+42 73+>1 >6+1= 7>+67 7>+== 73+47
L]ANONL=+>+= 76+47 77+== 76+=1 >+7= ?+41 4+?7
DNCGL4*LVAJL 2+42 2+61 1+7= ?+>5 =>+54 =7+=3
LA]JN>+= #ca}d~! 6+>= 5+2> 4+3> 6+31 77+25 76+73
AV^@NL5 =+6= 6+4? 5+44 6+37 76+34 2+12
AKLNL>+6 77+>? 7=+12 ==+5> 7>+52 74+?6 =2+4?
OA^^ D] 6+32 >+71 7>+1? =+>1 5+37 3+?1
OBE@NL=+7 >+52 4+14 7?+?5 1+26 7=+=3 75+>5
OBE@NL=+6 3+32 74+62 =2+>2 4+51 7>+67 72+??
N^A]JLH>+6 4+1= 6+5> 7+54 =+12 =+25 2+>>
NK]LNL> >+73 6+76 >+>> 7+7= =+2= >+?4
OA^^ZGJL ,,, ,,, ,,, 6+== =+22 5+2=OA^^ DC ,,, ,,, ,,, 5+1> 5+4? 77+22
BOJG@^o7+6 ,,, ,,, 7+?= 6+37 77+>1
LA]JN>+= #}jne}d~! ,,, 5+22 5+14 1+>4,
#sS! 7+>> =+64 6+46 =+1> =+1=5+=2 7+4=7+46 5+71=+=? 5+>5=+12
Ugm`d 7?9 V}jidnude V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} _gud} Mg~ak #Hgmt`, Icd`tl
gke Aket~ ]ard}!
ONL~
G= G7M
=6=6~ =646~ =636~ =6=6~ =646~ =636~
THLJCgeNL> 1+?2 72+>1 4+1= ?+== 6+2= ?+==
VNLKNG] 7+?1 >+>4 6+2> =+13 6+?7 7+54
NN^L>KNG] =+61 3+42 7=+37 5+3? 5+5? 1+56
L]ANONL=+>+= 77+71 7>+24 7>+71 6+2> 1+6? 76+73
DNCGL4*LVAJL 7+15 6+25 7+>> 7+22 7=+76 3+12
LA]JN>+= #ca}d~! =+16 7+47 77+26 =+55 =+7> /7+>6
AV^@NL5 7+5? 6+56 7+1? 7+77 2+15 5+1>
AKLNL>+6 76+=5 76+6> 7?+12 77+?3 7>+66 ==+==
OA^^ D] 6+2> 6+17 >+7? 6+>4 6+42 =+34
OBE@NL=+7 =+33 =+=3 3+=2 4+>2 4+42 4+76
OBE@NL=+6 2+75 ?+47 75+47 >+1> 3+=5 3+72
N^A]JLH>+6 >+12 >+=6 2+?4 7+?> 6+4> 4+?4
NK]LNL> 7+52 6+7> =+>6 6+57 7+53 >+51
OA^^ZGJL ,,, ,,, 6+54 =+6? 1+55
OA^^ DC ,,, 6+41 >+>> 7+72
BOJG@^o7+6 ,,, ,,, ,,, 7+15 6+47 4+7>
LA]JN>+= #}jne}d~!,,, ,, ,,, 2+42 77+>? 73+55
,
#sS! 6+34 7+27 7+17 =+6? 6+52 =+?5 6+4? 7+61 6+1> 7+27 6+>> =+>7
>6
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
41/91
5+ V}jidnuajk~ jrd} Kdvg`
Ucd}d g}d bjt} n`alguan ~dg~jk~ ak Kdvg`9 Lg}ncLgq #~v}ako!, ItkdGtot~u #~tlld}!,^dvudlmd}Kjrdlmd} #gtutkl! gke Edndlmd}Bdm}tg}q #akud}!+ Ucd ljk~jjk a~
gvv}jsalgud`q b}jl ucd dke jb Itkd uj ucd laee`d jb ^dvudlmd}+ Gmjtu 36 vd} ndku jb ucd }gakbg``~ et}ako ucgu vd}aje, ~j ucd }dlgakako vg}u jb ucd qdg} a~ g`lj~u e}q+ ^v}ako gke gtutlk g}ducd lj~u v`dg~gku ~dg~jk~ cd}dg~ akud} udlvd}gut}d~ e}jv uj b}ddyako vjaku auc g caoc `drd` jb~kjbg`` ak ucd ljtkugak~+ ^tlld} gke `gud ~v}ako udlvd}gut}d~ }gkod b}jl =3N ak ucd ca``q}doajk~ uj lj}d ucgk 56N ak ucd Ud}ga+ Ak akud}, grd}god lgsaltl gke lakaltludlvd}gut}d~ ak ucd Ud}ga }gkod b}jl g m}a~h ?N uj g la`e =>N+ Ucd ndku}g` rg``dq~ dsvd}adkndg lakaltl udlvd}gut}d jbudk bg``ako md`j b}ddyako vjaku+ Ltnc nj`ed} udlvd}gut}d~ v}drga` gucaocd} d`drguajk~+ Ucd Hguclgket Rg``dq, gu gk g`uauted jb 7> 76l #5=1?bu!, cg~ g la`e n`algudX~jt}nd9 cuuv9**+~jtucu}grd`~+njl'g~ag`kdvgTdgucd}+cul`I+ Ak Baot}d 73, ONL akud}vj`gudeo}ae~ g}d ~cjk jrd} Kdvg`+
Baot}d739 O}ae~ njrd}ako Kdvg`
V}jidnude dk~dlm`d ncgkod~ jrd} Kdvg` ~cj ucgu ak =636~, }a~d ak udlvd}gut}d a~ 5+=1Nbj} G=~ndkg}aj gke ak G7M, ucd }a~d a~ >+3>N g~ `a~ude ak Ugm`d 73+
Gljtku jb v}dnavauguajk jrd} Kdvg` akn}dg~d~ tv uj 2+== $ bj} G= ~ndkg}aj cd}dg~ ak G7M, ucd }a~dak v}dnavauguajk a~ >+21$ gu ucd dke jb ucd ndkut}q #Ugm`d 71!+ Caoc tknd}ugakuad~ ej kju jbbd} g n`dg}
ncgkod ak v}dnavauguajk+
>7
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
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Ugm`d 739 V}jidnude Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~ , U #N! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Kdvg`
ONL~G= G`M
=6=6~ =646~ =636~ =6=6~ =646~ =636~
THLJCgeNL> 7+67 =+>2 5+== 7+7> =+47 >+21
VNLKNG] 6+17 7+52 =+35 6+11 7+3> =+5=
NN^L>KNG] 7+52 =+>= 5+66 7+>1 =+45 >+=>
L]ANONL=+>+= 6+?6 7+?? >+>5 7+64 =+=7 >+6>
DNCGL4*LVAJL 7+6= =+>4 5+32 7+>? >+67 5+32
LA]JN>+= #ca}d~! 7+57 =+2= 5+4= 7+5> =+?6 5+6?
AV^@NL5 7+>4 >+65 4+74 7+43 >+=> 5+33
AKLNL>+6 7+>1 =+37 5+4? 7+25 =+1? >+?1
OA^^ D] 7+2? =+31 5+?5 7+25 =+16 5+77
OBE@NL=+7 7+44 =+33 5+32 7+?? >+=> 5+>2
OBE@NL=+6 7+2> >+=3 4+=1 7+24 >+>5 5+?7
N^A]JLH>+6 7+=2 =+== >+22 7+75 7+17 =+11
NK]LNL> 6+?1 =+6? >+?3 7+`6 =+=7 >+72
OA^^ZGJL ,,, ,,, 7+75 =+76 =+1=OA^^ DC ,,, ,,, 7+21 =+3? 5+7?
BOJG@^o7+6 ,,, ,,, ,,, 6+16 7+1= =+16
LA]JN>+= #}jne}d~! ,,, ,,, ,,, =+=7 5+67 4+36
,
#sS! 7+=5 6+=6 =+5? 6+>> 5+=1 6+5? 7+56 6+63 =+23 6+74 >+3> 6+==
Ugm`d 719 V}jidnude V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V#$!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Kdvg`
ONL~G= G`M
=6=6~ =646~ =636~ =6=6~ =646~ =636~
THLJCgeNL> >+26 76+42 75+3= 4+37 75+54 72+??VNLKNG] 4+5= 77+6= 75+47 5+55 76+46 7>+35
NN^L>KNG] >+44 7+>2 76+2> 5+?= ?+>> 2+21
L]ANONL=+>+= 75+>= =5+=4 ==+26 7=+17 =7+33 >=+37
DNCGL4*LVAJL 1+?7 ?+5= ?+37 4+67 ?+?? 76+51
LA]JN>+= #ca}d~! 7+31 7=+3? 73+46 4+?= 75+3> =>+4?
AV^@NL5 =3+=1 >5+1> >=+13 =6+>1 =4+13 >2+=4
AKLNL>+6 2+?7 2+72 5+=6 3+32 >+5> 3+>1
OA^^ D] 74+73 73+27 >=+5? 1+62 ==+76 >=+5=
OBE@NL=+7 7+=5 3+44 7=+31 6+15 4+24 2+2=
OBE@NL=+6 77+5? =3+22 4?+75 72+?5 >7+16 55+42
N^A]JLH>+6 3+3= 2+5> 4+6= 5+26 4+=> 4+61
NK]LNL> 6+33 6+7? 7=+=4 =+?5 1+12 76+4?
OA^^ZGJL ,,Z+, =+2? 7?+46 =>+>5
OA^^ DC 7?+63 74+>1 >2+71BOJG@^o7+6 ,,, 74+>6 ?+=? 3+21
LA]JN>+= #}jne}d~! ,,, ,,, ,,, 3+37 7=+=3 =7+46
#ss!
>+26 >+63 7+37 5+?2 2+== 2+42 I+`3=+44 >+53 >+34 >+21 4+?2
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4+ V}jidnuajk~ jrd} Mgko`ged~c
Mgko`ged~c gke dg~ud}k vg}u~ jb Akeag cgrd g ~tmu}jvang` ljk~jjk n`algud ncg}gnud}ayde mq aed ~dg~jkg`
rg}aguajk~ ak }gakbg``, ljed}gud`q g}l udlvd}gut}d~, gke caoc ctlaeauq+ ]doajkg` n`alguan eabbd}dknd~ ak
uca~ b`gu njtku}q g}d lakj}+ Uc}dd ~dg~jk~ g}d odkd}g``q }dnjokayde9 g cju, ctlae ~tlld} b}jl Lg}nc ujItkd8 g njj`, }gakq ljk~jjk ~dg~jk b}jl Itkd uj Jnujmd}8 gke g njj`, e}q akud} b}jl Jnujmd} uj Lg}nc+ Ak
odkd}g`, lgsaltl ~tlld} udlvd}gut}d~ }gkod mduddk >=N gke >3d+ Gv}a` a~ ucd g}ld~u ljkuc ak
lj~u vg}u~ jb ucd njtku}q+ Igktg}q a~ ucd nj`ed~u ljkuc, cdk ucd grd}god udlvd}gut}d bj} lj~u jb ucd
njtku}q a~ 76jd+ Cdgrq }gakbg`` a~ ncg}gnud}a~uan jb Mgko`ged~c+ _auc ucd dsndvuajk jb ucd }d`guard`q e}q
d~ud}k }doajk jb ]gi~cgca, cd}d ucd gkktg` }gakbg`` a~ gmjtu 726 ndkualdud}~, lj~u vg}u~ jb ucd njtku}q
}dndard gu `dg~u =66 ndkualdud}~ jb }gakbg`` vd} gkktl+
X~jt}nd9 cuuv9**j}`ebgnu~+t~*mgko`ged~codjo}gvcq+cu}k`\+
Ak Baot}d 71, o}ae~ jk`q jrd} gnutg` odjo}gvcang` mjtkeg}ad~ jb Mgko`ged~c g}d ~cjk gke g}dg grd}gode
rg`td~ jb udlvd}gut}d gke v}dnavauguajk g}d ~cjk ugmt`gude ak Ugm`d~ =6 gke =7+
Baot}d 719 O}ae~ njrd}ako Mgko`ged~c
V}jidnude udlvd}gut}d jrd} Mgko`ged~c ~cj~ gk akn}dg~d jb >+57 N bj}G= ~ndkg}aj gke >N bj} G7M
~ndkg}aj ak =636~ g~ `a~ude ak Ugm`d =6+
Ak Ugm`d =7, v}jidnude v}dnavauguajk ncgkod~ jrd} Mgko`ged~c g}d ugmt`gude+ Ak =636~, ucd gljtku jbv}dnavauguajk a~ bjtke akn}dg~de tv uj 3+>1$ bj}G= ~ndkg}aj cd}dg~ ak G`M ucd }a~d ak v}dnavauguajk a~
?+>?$ ~alt`gude mq dk~dlm`d jb 7? ONL~+
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Ugm`d =69 V}jidnude Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Mgko`ged~c
ONL~G= G7M
=6=6~ =646~ =636~ =6=6~ =646~ =636~
THLJCgeNL> 6+3P =+=? 5+74 7+67 =+56 >+21
VNLKNG] 6+23 7+=? =+56 6+3= 7+25 =+75
NN^L>KNG] 6+1? 7+35 >+=> 7+66 =+66 =+21
L]ANONL=+>+= 6+>= 7+=2 =+41 6+27 7+21 =+4=
DNCGL4*LVAJL 6+22 7+21 >+?> 6+3? =+72 >+?>
LA]JN>+= #ca}d~! 6+25 7+>2 =+23 6+2? 7+55 =+47
AV^@NL5 7+6> =+>2 5+=7 7+71 =+43 >+14
AKLNL>+6 6+3? 7+3> >+72 7+61 =+66 =+42
OA^^ D] 7+=5 =+=5 >+4> 7+7? =+74 >+7>
OBE@NL=+7 7+=2 =+>3 >+15 7+>> =+32 >+24
OBE@NL=+6 7+75 =+52 >+31 7+77 =+42 >+43
N^A]JLH>+6 7+67 7+?2 >+61 6+?4 7+>4 =+=3
NK]LNL> 6+2? =+67 >+21 7+76 =+61 =+3?
OA^^ GJL ,,, ,,, ,,, 6+33 7+?7 =+45OA^^ DC ,,, ,,, ,,, 7+== =+72 >+=7
BOJG@^o7+6 ,,, ,,, ,,, 6+?7 7+43 =+55
LA]JN>+= #lne}d~! ,,, ,,, ,,, 6+11 =+=? >+5?
,
#s( s ! 6+3? 6+7? 7+16 6+=? >+57 6+>3 6+1?6+64 =+65 6+76 >+66 6+75
Ugm`d =79 V}jidnude V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ Mgko`ged~c
ONL~G= G`M
=6=6~ =646~ =636~ =6=6~ =646~ =636~
THLJCgeNL> =+=6 1+32 74+>? 7+4? 3+=3 75+=1VNLKNG] 6+7= >+6? ?+62 7+22 4+46 ?+77
NN^L>KNG] 5+77 7+72 7=+31 6+3> 1+34 3+15
L]ANONL=+>+= =+32 4+62 ?+37 4+>2 ?+5? 3+6=
DNCGL^ALVAJL 6+62 5+12 1+11 =+22 3+>1 ?+3=
LA]JN>+= #ca}d~! =+34 75+61 =6+54 2+35 =6+13 =7+1=
AV^@NL5 1+23 7=+?2 3+11 ?+>= 5+3= 77+44
AKLNL>+6 =+16 7+>3 6+?3 6+53 =+26 5+>4
OA^^ D] 5+72 3+62 76+=> 2+72 4+71 >+11
OBE@NL=+7 4+=5 7+15 76+42 6+?> 6+15 7+4=
OBEA,NL=+6 7+72 6+34 74+4> 7+== >+23 7=+71
N~lJLH>+j >+52 7+41 6+?5 7+?2 =+55 5+41
NK]LNL> 7+>> 6+?4 3+76 6+3> ?+56 75+5?
OA^^ GJL ,,, ,,, 6+36 2+>6 3+25
OA^^ DC ,,, ,,, ,,, 6+11 >+33 =+6>
BOJG@^o`+6 ,,, ,,, ?+31 7+77 6+=6
LA]6N>+= #lde}d~! ,,, ,,, ?+7= 1+25 7?+77
#s s !
7+6= 7+61 =+?= 7+?1 3+>1 =+74 6+2= 7+65 4+5=7+57 ?+>? 7+32
>5
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2+ Njkn`t~ajk~
Jtuvtu b}jl ~alt`guajk~ jb udlvd}gut}d gke v}dnavauguajk mq 7? o`jmg` n`algud ljed`~ t~de ak ucdAVNN G]5 g}d t~de bj} rg`aeguajk g~ d`` g~ bj} ucd edrd`jvldku jb btut}d n`algud ncgkod ~ndkg}aj~
jrd} jtuc G~ag }doajk, ~dvg}gud`q bj} Vgha~ugk, Mgko`ged~c gke Kdvg`+
Gn}j~~ g`` ljed`~, ucd ~vguag` vguud}k~ jb ldgk udlvd}gut}d~ ~alt`gude mq ucd ONL~ g}d rd}q ~ala`g}
uj ucd jm~d}rde n`alguj`joq+ Mtu DNCGL gke CgeNL> ONL~ ~cj ucd lakaltl mag~ gke cgrdojje go}ddldku auc jm~d}rde N]T egug g`lj~u g`` jrd} ^jtuc G~ag g~ njlvg}de uj jucd} ONL~+_ca`d ucd jucd} ONL~ odkd}gud eabbd}dku mag~d~ jrd} eabbd}dku }doajk~+ Ak ucd ng~d jb v}dnavauguajk,gogak DNCGL gke CgeNL> d`` ngvut}de ucd N]T n`alguj`joq gke ~cjde ucd lakaltl mag~ g~njlvg}de uj jucd} ONL~+
Bj} btut}d v}jidnuajk~, uc}dd uald ~`and~ dgnc jb >6qdg}~, ndkud}de jk =6=6~, =646~ gke =636~ d}ddsglakde bj} ucd }gkod jb btut}d v}jidnuajk~ jb udlvd}gut}d gke v}dnavauguajk bj} G= gke G`M~ndkg}aj~ t~ako dk~dlm`d gvv}jgnc+ Ucd udlvd}gut}d akn}dg~d~ ak mjuc ~tlld} gke akud} g}d caocd}ak Kj}ucd}k Vgha~ugk ucgk ak ^jtucd}k Vgha~ugk, gke ucd udlvd}gut}d akn}dg~d~ ak Kj}ucd}k gke^jtucd}k Vgha~ugk g}d caocd} ak akud} ucgk ak ~tlld}+ Ak ucd ng~d jb v}dnavauguajk v}jidnuajk~, ucd}gucd} g}od d}}j}~ lghd au eabbant`u uj e}g gkq edbakaud njkn`t~ajk~ gmjtu ucd ncgkod~ ak v}dnavauguajk+
Ucd}d a~, cjdrd}, ~jld akeanguajk jb v}dnavauguajk akn}dg~d ak ~tlld} gke edn}dg~d ak akud} ak^jtucd}k Vgha~ugk+
Bj} g`` ucd uc}dd uald vd}aje~ ak mjuc ucd ~ndkg}aj~, ucd }a~d~ ak udlvd}gut}d jk gkktg` g~ d`` g~~dg~jkg` mg~a~ ak Vgha~ugk gke Kdvg` g}d njlvg}gm`d, ca`d ucj~d ak Mgko`ged~c g}d }d`guard`q `jd}+Bt}ucd}lj}d, ucd}d a~ }d`guard q g g}od} udlvd}gut}d akn}dg~d ak akud} ucgk ak ~tlld} ak g`` ucd uc}ddnjtku}ad~+ Ucd}d g}d n`dg} akeanguajk~ ucgu ak g`` ucd uc}dd njtku}ad~, v}dnavauguajk a`` akn}dg~d ak~tlld} gke edn}dg~d ak akud} #jk`q g ~`aocu edn}dg~d ak akud} ak Vgha~ugk/~ ng~d!, ca`d jk gkktg`
mg~a~ au a`` akn}dg~d ak Mgko`ged~c mtu cgrd kj ~aokabangku ncgkod #aucak ucd `g}od d}}j}~! akKdvg`
gke Vgha~ugk+
>4
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]dbd}dknd~
Oj}ejk CD, ]ju~ugqk @E, LnO}doj} I@, Eas 9L9], Hjg`nyqh, J/Bg}}d`` ^V,_gud}lgk @I, Ca}~u
GN,_a`~jk ^O, Nj``ad} LG, _guud}~jk AO, D``ajuu UA #=66=! Ucd N^A]J Lh> N`algud ^q~udl Ljed`#D`dnu}jkan vtm`anguajk!+ G~jdkeg`d9 N^A]J Gulj~vcd}an ]d~dg}nc Udnckang` Vgvd} Kj+ 26, 7>6 vv +
Eagk~hq KG, Rj`jeak DL #=66=! ^alt`guajk jb v}d~dkuegq n`algud auc g njtv`de Gulj~vcd}dJndgk
odkd}g` na}nt`guajk ljed`+ Ayr Gulj~ Jndgk Vcq~ #Dko` U}gk~`! >39 ?>= ?5?
^g`g~Ld`ag E, Ncgtrak B, Edwtd L, Ejtra``d C, Otd}dlq IB, Lg}wtdu V, V`gkujk ^, ]jqd} IB, Uqudng ^
#=662! Ed~n}avuajk gke rg`aeguajk jb ucd NK]LNL> o`jmg` njtv`de ljed@ N`al Eqk #ak v}d~~!
Itkon`gt~ IC, Hddk`q~aed K, Mjuydu L, Cggh C, @tj II, @guab L, Lg}juyhd I, Lahj`gidany T, ]jdnhkd} D
#=662! Jndgk na}nt`guajk gke u}jvang` rg}agma`auq ak ucd njtv`de ljed` DNCGL414=>1?=
Ed`j}uc U@, M}jnnj`a GI, ]j~gua G, ^ujtbbd} ]I, Mg`gia R, Mdd~`dq IG, Njjhd _B, Easjk H_, Etkkd I,
Etkkd HG, Et}gncug I_, Baked`` H@, Oakjts V, Okgkged~ahgk G, Oj}ejk NU, O}aooad~ ^L, Oteoa` ],
Cg}}a~jk LI, Cd`e AL9, Cdl`d} ]^, Cj}jauy @_, H`dak ^G, Hktu~jk U], Ht~ckd} VI, @gkodkcj}~u G],
@dd CN, @ak I, @t I, Lg`q~cdr @, La``q VNE, ]glg~glq R, ]t~~d`` I, ncg}yhjvb9LE, cdr`aghjrg
D, ^a}tua~ II, ^vd`lgk LI, ^udl _B, _akujk L, _auudkmd}o GU, _qlgk M, Ydko B, Ycgko ] #=662!
OBE@/~ NL= O`jmg` njtv`de n`algud ljed`~ Vg}u 79 Bj}lt`guajk gke ~alt`guajk ncg}gnud}a~uan~+ I
N`algud 719 25>2?5
Lg}ua+ 6, M}gnjkkju V, Md``ad} I, Mdk~ca`d ], Mjkq ^, M}jnhlgkk V, Nget``d V, Ngtmd` G, Edkra` ^,
Etb}d~kd I@, Bga}cdge @, Ba`amd}ua LG, Bancdbdu U, B}ade`ako~udak V, O}gkevdas IQ, Cjt}eak B, H}akkd} O,@drq N, Lt~gu A, Ug`gkead} N #=664! Ucd kd 'V^@ n`algud ~q~udl ljed`9 AV^@NL5+ Ak~uautu Vad}}d
^aljk @gv`gnd, Vge~, 32 vv
^nclaeu OG, ]tdeq ], Cgk~dk ID, G`dakjr A, Md`` K, Mgtd} L, Mgtd} ^, Nga}k~ M, Ngktud R, Ncdko Q,
Ed`Odkaj G, Bg`trdoa O, B}adke GE, Cg`` UL, Ct Q, Hd``dq L,HagkoKQ, Hjnc E, @gna~ GG, @d}kd} I,
@j HH, La``d} ]@, Kgyg}dkhj @, Jakg~ R, Vd}`auy Igk, Vd}`auy Iteauc, ]ake E8 ]jlgkjt G, ]t~~d` O@,
^guj L, ^caked`` EU, ^ujkd VC, ^tk ^, Ugt~kdr K, Uc}d~cd} E, Qgj L^ #=662! V}d~dku egq gulj~vcd}an
~alt`guajk~ t~ako OA^^ Ljed`D9 Njlvg}a~jk uj ak~aut, ~gud``aud gke }dgkg`q~a~ egug+ I N`algud 719 74>71=
H` Ljed` Edrd`jvd}~ #=665! H` Njtv`de ONL #LA]JN! ed~n}avuajk+ Ak9 Cg~tla C, Dlj}a ^ #de~! H`
Udnc ]dvj}u Kj+7, Ndkud} bj} N`algud ^q~udl ]d~dg}nc, Tkard}~auq jb Ujhqj, Kguajkg` Ak~uautud bj}
Dkra}jkldkug` ^utead~, B}jkuad} ]d~dg}nc Ndkud} bj} O`jmg` Ncgkod, >1 vv
_g~cakoujk _L, _dgucd}`qARQ, Lddc` OG, dlukd} GAI}, Mduuod U_, N}gao GV, ^u}gke _O I}, G}m`g~ud}
I,_gq`gke RM, Igld~ ], Ycgko Q #=666! Vg}g``d` n`algud ljed` #VNL! njku}j` gke u}gk~adku ~alt`guajk~+
N`al Eqk 729 ?44??5
>2
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Qthaljuj ^, Kjeg G, Haujc G, ^toa L, Hauglt}g Q, Cj~ghg L, ^camgug H, Lgdeg ^, Tncaqglg U #=667!
Ucd kd Ldudj}j`joang` ]d~dg}nc Ak~uautud Njtv`de ONL #77]ANONL=!Ljed` n`algud gke rg}agma`auq+
Vgvd}~ Ldudj} Odjvcq~ 479 5?33
Qt Q, Ycgko S, Otj Q #=665! O`jmg` njtv`de jndgk gulj~vcd}d odkd}g` na}nt`guajk ljed`~ ak @G^O AGV+
Ger Gulj~ ^na =79 555544
Cjtocujk IU, Lda}g Ba`cj @O, Ng``gked} MG, Cg}}a~ K, Hguudkmd}o G, Lg~hd`` H #7112! N`algud ncgkod
7114+ Ucd ~nadknd jb n`algud ncgkod+ Nglm}aeod Tkard}~auq V}d~~, Nglm}aeod, TH
N`algud Ncgkod =66?9 Ucd Vcq~ang` nadknd Mg~a~ ^tllg}q bj} Vj`anqlghd}~+ Akud}ojrd}kldkug` Vgkd`
jk N`algud Ncgkod #=66?!+ ]du}adrde jk =66?6=6=+
>?
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Gkkds A
>3
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7=+7>+Go}j N`alguan Yjkd~
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75+
V}jidnude Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} BCG #Ctlae*^tmctlae Go}jn`alguanYjkd!
ONL^
G= G7M
=6=6~ =646~ =636~ =6=6~ =646~ =636~
THLJCgeNL> 7+71 =+24 5+35 7+=1 >+6= 5+=4
VNLKNG] 6+1= 7+36 >+>? 7+=7 =+=> >+67
NN^L>KNG] 7+35 >+6= 4+64 7+3? >+>6 >+3?
L]ANONL=+>+= 7+75 =+>5 >+3? 7+42 =+24 >+?>
DNCGL4ALVAJL 7+=7 =+25 4+52 7+4= >+53 4+56
LA]JN>+= #ca}d~ ! =+64 >+41 4+54 7+35 >+?3 4+>=
AV^@NL5 7+=? =+23 5+?2 7+5> =+35 5+>>
AKLN`/PM+J =+76 >+47 4+>4 =+77 >+42 5+>5
OA^^ D] 7+4> =+23 5+>? 7+51 =+22 >+3?
OBE@NL=+7 7+?7 >+64 4+>? 7+?5 >+56 5+42
OBE@NL=+6 7+3> >+24 2+76 =+6? >+?4 4+=6
N^A]JLH>+6 7+== =+74 >+2? 7+7> =+6> >+62NK]LNL> 7+73 =+4? 5+53 7+54 =+22 >+?7OA^^ GJL
,,, ,,,`+I2 =+43 >+==
OA^^DC,,,
L + Z Z
,,,7+25 =+23 >+1>
BOJG@^o`+J ,,, ,,, 6+16 =+=5 >+>3LA]JN>+= #ljj}d~! ,,, ,,, ,,, =+4> 5+45 2+36
,
#ss! 7+536+77 =+36 6+74 5+?3 6+== 7+43 6+76 >+6= 6+72 5+=> 6+=5
V}jidnude Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} BCM #^dlag}ae Go}jn`alguan Yjkd!
ONL^
G= G`M
=6=6~ =646~ =636~ =6=6~ =646~ =636~
THLJCgeNL> 7+75 =+43 5+?= 7+=> =+16 5+72
VNLKNG] 6+34 7+4> >+65 7+6? =+67 =+21
NN^L>KNG] 7+5= =+52 5+=> 7+52 =+?1 >+=4
L]ANONL=+>+= 7+77 =+=3 >+?> 7+5? =+43 >+4>
DNCGL4ALVAJL 7+=7 =+22 4+56 7+45 >+51 4+5=
LA]JN>+= #ca}d~! 7+31 >+>6 4+63 7+?4 >+53 5+11
AV^@NL5 7+=1 =+?2 4+64 7+4> >+62 5+2=
AKLN`/PM+J 7+17 >+>3 4+76 =+6= >+57 5+6>
OA^^ D] 7+>> =+4? 5+7? 7+>= =+24 >+?4
OBE@NL=+7 7+?? >+76 4+>? 7+3= >+45 5+?7
OBE@NL=+6 7+15 >+3> 2+=? =+75 >+14 4+>2
N^A]JLH>+6 7+=7 =+75 >+?4 7+62 7+1> >+62
NK]LNL> 7+7? =+43 5+51 7+52 =+21 >+?2
OA^^ GJL ,,, ,,, ,+,, 7+74 =+4> >+=7
OA^^DC,,, 7+36 =+?5 >+11
BOJG@^o`+J 6+3= =+77 >+72LA]JN>+= #ljj}d~! ,+,, =+>2 5+6> 4+35
,
#ss! 7+56 6+76 =+?7 6+72 5+24 6+=5 7+4> 6+76 =+1> 6+74 5+61 6+=>
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
51/91
V}jidnude Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} BCN #G}ae Go}jn`alguan Yjkd!
57
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
52/91
V}jidnude V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} BCG #Ctlae*^tmctlae Go}j n`alguan
Yjkd!
5=
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
53/91
V}jidnude V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} VCN #G}ae Go}jn`alguan Yjkd!
5>
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
54/91
Gkkds AA
55
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
55/91
_gud} ^cde ]doajk~
54
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
56/91
V}jidnude Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Tvvd} Aket~ Mg~ak
V}jidnude Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~ U #N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Hgmt`
52
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
57/91
V}jidnude Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Icd`tl
V}jidnude V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Tvvd} Aket~ Mg~ak
5?
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
58/91
V}jidnude V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Hgmt`
V}jidnude V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V#$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Icd`tl
53
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
59/91
Gkkds AAA
51
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
60/91
V}jidnude tlld} #IIG^! Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U N mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Kj}ucd}k Vgha~ugk
V}jidnude tlld} #IIG^! V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Kj}ucd}k Vgha~ugk
46
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
61/91
V}jidnude tlld} #IIG^! Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} ^jtucd}k Vgha~ugk
V}jidnude tlld} #IIG^! V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V#$!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} jtucd}k Vgha~ugk
47
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
62/91
V}jidnude _akud} #EIBL! Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Kj}ucd}k Vgha~ugk
V}jidnude _akud} #EIBL! V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Kj}ucd}k Vgha~ugk
4=
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
63/91
V}jidnude _akud} #EIBL! Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} ^jtucd}k Vgha~ugk
V}jidnude _akud} #EIBL! V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} ^jtucd}k Vgha~ugk
4>
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
64/91
V}jidnude ~tlld} #I I G^! Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~,U #N! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Vgha~ugk
V}jidnude tlld} #IIG^! V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Vgha~ugk
45
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
65/91
V}jidnude _akud} #EIBL! Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N!mq 7? ONL~ grd} Vgha~ugk
V}jidnude _akud} #EIBL! V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Vgha~ugk
44
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
66/91
V}jidnude tlld} #IIG^! Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~U #N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} BCGM #Ctlae* ^tmctlae
" ^dlag}ae Go}jn`alguan Yjkd!
V}jidnude tlld} #IIG^! V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} BCGM #Ctlae* tmctlae
" ^dlag}ae Go}jn`alguan Yjkd!
42
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
67/91
V}jidnude tlld} #IIG^! Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} BCNE #G}ae "
Cqvd}g}ae Go}jn`alguan Yjkd!
V}jidnude tlld} #IIG^! V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} BCNE #G}ae "
Cqvd}g}ae Go}jn`alguan Yjkd!
4?
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
68/91
V}jidnude _akud} #EIBL! Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd}BCGM #Ctlae* tmctlae
" dlag}ae Go}jn`alguan Yjkd!
V}jidnude _akud} #EIBL! V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V#$!mq 7? ONL~ jrd}BCGM #Ctlae* tmctlae
" ^dlag}ae Go}jn`alguan Yjkd!
43
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
69/91
V}jidnude _akud}#E7BL! Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~U #N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} BCNE #G}ae"
Cqvd}g}ae Go}jn`alguan Yjkd!
V}jidnude akud} #EIBL! V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} BCNE #G}ae "
Cqvd} G}ae Yjkd!
41
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
70/91
V}jidnude tlld} #IIG^! Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Tvvd} Aket~ Mg~ak
V}jidnude tlld} #IIG^! V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Tvvd} Aket~ Mg~ak
26
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
71/91
V}jidnude tlld} #IIG^! Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N!mq 7? ONL~/ jrd} Hgmt`" Icd`tl
]ard} Mg~ak
V}jidnude tlld} #IIG^! V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Hgmt` " Icd`tl]ard} Mg~ak
27
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
72/91
V}jidnude tlld} #IIG^! Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~+U #N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} _gud} Mg~ak #Hgmt`,
Icd`tl " Aket~ ]ard}!
V}jidnude tlld} #IIG^! V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} _gud} Mg~ak #Hgmt`,
Icd`tl " Aket~ ]ard}!
2=
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
73/91
V}jidnude _akud} #EIBL! Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Tvvd} Aket~ Mg~ak
V}jidnude _akud} #EIBL! V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~V #$!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Tvvd} Aket~ Mg~ak
2>
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
74/91
V}jidnude _akud} #EIBL! Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Hgmt` " Icd`tl ]ard}
Mg~ak
V}jidnude _akud} #EIBL! V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Hgmt` " Icd`tl
]ard} Mg~ak
25
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
75/91
V}jidnude _akud} #EIBL! Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} _gud} Mg~ak
V}jidnude _akud} #EIBL! V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} _gud} Mg~ak #Hgmt`,
Icd`tl " Aket~ ]ard}!
24
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
76/91
V}jidnude tlld} #IIG^! Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Kdvg`
V}jidnude tlld} #IIG^! V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Kdvg`
22
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
77/91
V}jidnude _akud} #EIBL! Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} dvg`
V}jidnude _akud} #EIBL! V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Kdvg`
2?
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
78/91
V}jidnude ^tlld} #IIG^! Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Mgko`ged~c
V}jidnude ^tlld} #IIG^! V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Mgko`ged~c
23
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
79/91
V}jidnude _akud} #EIBL! Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Mgko`ged~c
V}jidnude _akud} #EIBL! V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Mgko`ged~c
21
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
80/91
Gkkds AR
?6
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
81/91
V}jidnude Ljkuc`q Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Kj}ucd}k Vgha~ugk
V}jidnude Ljkuc`q V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Kj}ucd}k Vgha~ugk
?7
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
82/91
V}jidnude Ljkuc`q Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} ^jtucd}k Vgha~ugk
V}jidnude Ljkuc`q V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} ^jtucd}k Vgha~ugk
?=
-
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
83/91
V}jidnude Ljkuc`q Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Vgha~ugk
V}jidnude Ljkuc`q V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Vgha~ugk
?>
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
84/91
V}jidnude Ljkuc`q Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} BCGM #Ctlae*^tmctlae "
^dlag}ae Go}jn`alguan Yjkd!
V}jidnude Ljkuc`q V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} BCGM #Ctlae*^tmctlae "
^dlag}ae Go}jn`alguan Yjkd!
?5
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
85/91
V}jidnude Ljkuc`q Udlvd}gu+t}d Ncgkod~, U #N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} BCNE #G}ae gke Cqvd}g}aeGo}j N`alguan Yjkd!
V}jidnude Ljkuc`q V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} BCNE #G}ae gke Cqvd}g}aeGo}j N`alguan Yjkd!
?4
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
86/91
V}jidnude Ljkuc`q Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U #N! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Tvvd} Aket~ Mg~ak
V}jidnude Ljkuc`q V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Tvvd} Aket~ Mg~ak
?2
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
87/91
V}jidnude Ljkuc`q V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, U #N! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Hgmt` " Icd`tl ]ard} Mg~ak
V}jidnude Ljkuc`q V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V#$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Hgmt` " Icd`tl ]ard}
Mg~ak
??
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
88/91
V}jidnude Ljkuc`q Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U#N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} _gud} Mg~ak #Hgmt`, Icd`tl"
Aket~ ]ard}!
V}jidnude Ljkuc`q V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$! mq 7? ONL~ jrd} _gud} Mg~ak #Hgmt`, Icd`tl "
Aket~ ]ard}!
?3
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
89/91
V}jidnude Ljkuc`q Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~, U#N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Kdvg`
V}jidnude Ljkuc`q V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V N$!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Kdvg`
?1
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
90/91
V}jidnude Ljkuc`q Udlvd}gut}d Ncgkod~U#N!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Mgko`ged~c
V}jidnude Ljkuc`q V}dnavauguajk Ncgkod~, V #$!mq 7? ONL~ jrd} Mgko`ged~c
36
8/2/2019 Climate Change Projections for Pakistan,Nepal and Bangladesh for SRES A2 and A1B Scenarios Using Outputs of 17
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-
O`jmg` Ncgkod Alvgnu ^utead~ Ndku}d#ONA^N!
O`jmg` ncgkod ~nadknd a~ mdako goo}d~~ard`q vt}~tde g}jtke ucd j}`e+ Ucd O`jmg` NcgkodAlvgnu ^utead~ Ndku}d g~ n}dgude ak Lgq =66= uj akauagud uca~ lt`uaea~nav`akg}q dbbj}u ak
Vgha~ugk+ Ucd lgak jmidnuard jb ucd Ndku}d a~ uj njlv}dcdke ucd vcdkjldkjk jb o`jmg` ncgkod,~nadkuabang``q edud}lakd au~ `ahd`q alvgnu~ jk rg}ajt~ ~jnajdnjkjlan ~dnuj}~ ak Vgha~ugk gkeedrd`jv ~u}gudoad~ uj njtkud} ucd gerd}~d dbbdnu~, ab gkq+ Gkjucd} btknuajk jb ucd Ndku}d a~ ujd~ugm`a~c au~d`b g~ g kguajkg` bjng` vjaku bj} v}jraeako njcd~ajk uj o`jmg` ncgkod }d`gude gnuarauad~gu ucd kguajkg` `drd` gke bj} `akhako au auc akud}kguajkg` o`jmg` }d~dg}nc+ Gk alvj}ugku btknuajkjb ucd Ndku}d a~ uj cd`v edrd`jv lgkvjd} ucgu a~ ngvgm`d jb ~uteqako gke vg}uanavguako ak ucdakud}kguajkg` dbbj}u uj ~uteq ucd o`jmg` ncgkod vcdkjldkjk+ Ucd Ndku}d g`~j j}h~ uj akn}dg~ducd gg}dkd~~ jb ucd vtm`an, ucd ~nadkuaban njlltkauq gke ucd vj`anq v`gkkd}~ ak ucd njtku}q ujo`jmg` ncgkod+