COMPETITIVE ECONOMIC POTENTIALS of NON-FOOD OPTIONS
International Food Security Impacts of
European Non-Food Options
Chris Llull a, Uwe A. Schneider a,b, Petr Havlik b,
Michael Obersteiner b, Ingo Huck a, Bruno Dorin c,
Timm Sauer a Erwin Schmid d
a Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, Germanyb International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
c French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development (CIRAD), Franced University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria
ENFA - European Non-Food Agriculture, Final Meeting, 23-24 April 200822
Increasing concerns about the sustainability of bioenergy.
Impact of bioenergy on the food system.
In a context of population, economic growth and resource scarcity.
Introduction
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Regional Resolution
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POPULATION GROWTH
ECONOMIC GROWTH
LAND SUPPLY
WATER SUPPLY
FOOD DEMAND
BIOENERGY
TECHNICAL PROGRESS
CO2 TAX
DEFORESTATIONq
p
CS
PSp*
q*
D
S
Exogenous Parameters
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Food Price
Food Trade
Food Consumption
Food Composition
Food Security
Main Output
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Population growth: IIASA GGI A2r baseline 10 levels up to 100% of 2030
Economic growth: IIASA GGI A2r baseline 10 levels up to 100% of 2030
Bioenergy: IIASA GGI A2r baseline10 levels up to 10% of total energy demand by 2030
Technical progress: 20% increase in productivity
Environmental policies: Carbon taxes 100 $ / ton
Deforestation: allowed or not allowed
Scenarios
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0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
0 20 40 60 80 100
From 2005 to 2030 (in %)
Population Growth Scenario
NorthAmericaWesternEurope
PacificOECDCentralEastEurope
FormerSovietUnionPlannedAsiaChina
SouthAsiaOtherPacificAsia
MidEastNorthAfricaLatinAmericaCaribSubSaharanAfrica
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1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
0 20 40 60 80 100
From 2005 to 2030 (in %)
Economic Growth Scenario
NorthAmericaWesternEurope
PacificOECDCentralEastEurope
FormerSovietUnionPlannedAsiaChina
SouthAsiaOtherPacificAsia
MidEastNorthAfricaLatinAmericaCaribSubSaharanAfrica
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1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
0 20 40 60 80 100
From 2005 to 2030 (in %)
Food Demand Scenario
NorthAmericaWesternEurope
PacificOECDCentralEastEurope
FormerSovietUnionPlannedAsiaChina
SouthAsiaOtherPacificAsia
MidEastNorthAfricaLatinAmericaCaribSubSaharanAfrica
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0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
0 20 40 60 80 100
From 2005 to 2030 (in %)
Water Scarcity
NorthAmericaWesternEurope
PacificOECDCentralEastEurope
FormerSovietUnionPlannedAsiaChina
SouthAsiaOtherPacificAsia
MidEastNorthAfricaLatinAmericaCaribSubSaharanAfrica
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0.82
0.84
0.86
0.88
0.9
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
1
0 20 40 60 80 100
From 2005 to 2030 (in %)
Land Scarcity
NorthAmericaWesternEurope
PacificOECDCentralEastEurope
FormerSovietUnionPlannedAsiaChina
SouthAsiaOtherPacificAsia
MidEastNorthAfricaLatinAmericaCaribSubSaharanAfrica
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GLOBAL LEVEL
FOOD PRICE
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1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
0 20 40 60 80 100
From 2005 to 2030 (in %)
Crop Price Index
Growth, No Def.Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.1Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.2Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.3Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.4Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.5Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.6Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.7Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.8Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.9
Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 1
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2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Cro
ps P
rice
Ind
ex
Global Bioenergy Level (in EJ)
Crops Price Index versus Bioenergy
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1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
0 20 40 60 80 100
From 2005 to 2030 (in %)
Crop Price Index
GrowthGrowth, No Def.
Growth, Bioen., No Def., YieldsGrowth,Bioen.,No Def.,Tax
Growth,Bioen.,No Def.,Tax,YieldsGrowth,Bioen.
Growth,Bioen.,YieldsGrowth,Bioen.,Tax
Growth,Bioen.,Tax,YieldsGrowth,No Def.,Bioen. 1
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1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
0 20 40 60 80 100
From 2005 to 2030 (in %)
Animal Calorie Price Index
Growth, No Def.Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.1Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.2Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.3Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.4Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.5Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.6Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.7Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.8Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.9
Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 1
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1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
0 20 40 60 80 100
From 2005 to 2030 (in %)
Animal Calorie Price Index
GrowthGrowth, No Def.
Growth, Bioen., No Def., YieldsGrowth,Bioen.,No Def.,Tax
Growth,Bioen.,No Def.,Tax,YieldsGrowth,Bioen.
Growth,Bioen.,YieldsGrowth,Bioen.,Tax
Growth,Bioen.,Tax,YieldsGrowth,No Def.,Bioen. 1
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GLOBAL LEVEL
FOOD CONSUMPTION
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1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
From 2005 to 2030 (in %)
World Average Daily Energy Intake per Head (in kcal)
Growth, No Def.Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.1Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.2Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.3Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.4Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.5
Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.6Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.7Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.8Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.9
Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 1
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1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
From 2005 to 2030 (in %)
World Average Daily Energy Intake per Head (in kcal)
GrowthGrowth,Bioen.
Growth,Bioen.,Yields
Growth,Bioen.,TaxGrowth,Bioen.,Tax,Yields
bioenergy
yield
tax Tax & yield
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1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
From 2005 to 2030 (in %)
World Average Daily Energy Intake per Head (in kcal)
Growth, No Def.Growth, Bioen., No Def., Yields
Growth,Bioen.,No Def.,Tax
Growth,Bioen.,No Def.,Tax,YieldsGrowth,No Def.,Bioen. 1
bioenergy
yield
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GLOBAL LEVEL
FOOD COMPOSITION
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15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
From 2005 to 2030 (in %)
Animal Calories Share (in %)
Growth, No Def.Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.1Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.2Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.3Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.4Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.5
Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.6Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.7Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.8Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 0.9
Growth,No Def.,Bioenergy 1
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10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
From 2005 to 2030 (in %)
Animal Calories Share (in %)
GrowthGrowth,Bioen.
Growth,Bioen.,Yields
Growth,Bioen.,TaxGrowth,Bioen.,Tax,Yields
bioenergy
yield
tax
Tax & yield
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10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
From 2005 to 2030 (in %)
Animal Calories Share (in %)
Growth, No Def.Growth, Bioen., No Def., Yields
Growth,Bioen.,No Def.,Tax
Growth,Bioen.,No Def.,Tax,YieldsGrowth,No Def.,Bioen. 1
bioenergy
yield
tax
Tax & yield
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REGIONAL LEVEL
FOOD TRADE
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-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
From 2005 to 2030 (in %)
Net Export Food in Million US$ for scenario: Growth
NorthAmericaWesternEurope
PacificOECDCentralEastEurope
FormerSovietUnionPlannedAsiaChina
SouthAsiaOtherPacificAsia
MidEastNorthAfricaLatinAmericaCaribSubSaharanAfrica
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-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Nor
thA
mer
ica
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
Paci
ficO
EC
D
Cen
tral
Eas
tEur
ope
Form
erSo
viet
Uni
on
Plan
nedA
siaC
hina
Sout
hAsi
a
Oth
erPa
cifi
cAsi
a
Mid
Eas
tNor
thA
fric
a
Lat
inA
mer
icaC
arib
SubS
ahar
anA
fric
a
Food Trade compare to scenario Growth 100% of 2030
Growth, No Def.Growth, Bioen., No Def., Yields
Growth,Bioen.,No Def.,TaxGrowth,Bioen.,No Def.,Tax,Yields
Growth,Bioen.Growth,Bioen.,Yields
Growth,Bioen.,TaxGrowth,Bioen.,Tax,Yields
Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 1
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REGIONAL LEVEL
FOOD CONSUMPTION
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1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
3400
3600
3800
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
From 2005 to 2030 (in %)
Daily Energy Intake per Head (in kcal) for scenario Growth
NorthAmericaWesternEurope
PacificOECDCentralEastEurope
FormerSovietUnionPlannedAsiaChina
SouthAsiaOtherPacificAsia
MidEastNorthAfricaLatinAmericaCaribSubSaharanAfrica
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-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
Nor
thA
mer
ica
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
Paci
ficO
EC
D
Cen
tral
Eas
tEur
ope
Form
erSo
viet
Uni
on
Plan
nedA
siaC
hina
Sout
hAsi
a
Oth
erPa
cifi
cAsi
a
Mid
Eas
tNor
thA
fric
a
Lat
inA
mer
icaC
arib
SubS
ahar
anA
fric
a
Daily Energy Intake per Head compare to scenario Growth 100% of 2030 (in kcal/capita/day)
Growth, No Def.Growth, Bioen., No Def., Yields
Growth,Bioen.,No Def.,TaxGrowth,Bioen.,No Def.,Tax,Yields
Growth,Bioen.Growth,Bioen.,Yields
Growth,Bioen.,TaxGrowth,Bioen.,Tax,Yields
Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 1
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REGIONAL LEVEL
FOOD COMPOSITION
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
From 2005 to 2030 (in %)
Animal Calories Share (in %) for scenario Growth
NorthAmericaWesternEurope
PacificOECDCentralEastEurope
FormerSovietUnionPlannedAsiaChina
SouthAsiaOtherPacificAsia
MidEastNorthAfricaLatinAmericaCaribSubSaharanAfrica
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-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Nor
thA
mer
ica
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
Paci
ficO
EC
D
Cen
tral
Eas
tEur
ope
Form
erSo
viet
Uni
on
Plan
nedA
siaC
hina
Sout
hAsi
a
Oth
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cifi
cAsi
a
Mid
Eas
tNor
thA
fric
a
Lat
inA
mer
icaC
arib
SubS
ahar
anA
fric
a
Animal Calories Share compare to scenario Growth 100% of 2030 (in %)
Growth, No Def.Growth, Bioen., No Def., Yields
Growth,Bioen.,No Def.,TaxGrowth,Bioen.,No Def.,Tax,Yields
Growth,Bioen.Growth,Bioen.,Yields
Growth,Bioen.,TaxGrowth,Bioen.,Tax,Yields
Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 1
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
FOOD SECURITY
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30
40
50
60
70
80
90
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
From 2005 to 2030 (in %)
Prevalence of Malnutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa (%)
Growth, No Def.Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.1Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.2Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.3Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.4Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.5
Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.6Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.7Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.8Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.9
Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 1
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200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
From 2005 to 2030 (in %)
Number of Undernourished People in Sub-Saharan Africa (in Million)
Growth, No Def.Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.1Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.2Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.3Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.4Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.5
Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.6Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.7Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.8Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 0.9
Growth,No Def.,Bioen. 1
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20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
From 2005 to 2030 (in %)
Prevalence of Malnutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa (%)
GrowthGrowth,Bioen.
Growth,Bioen.,Yields
Growth,Bioen.,TaxGrowth,Bioen.,Tax,Yields
bioenergyyield
taxTax & yield
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30
40
50
60
70
80
90
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
From 2005 to 2030 (in %)
Prevalence of Malnutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa (%)
Growth, No Def.Growth, Bioen., No Def., Yields
Growth,Bioen.,No Def.,Tax
Growth,Bioen.,No Def.,Tax,YieldsGrowth,No Def.,Bioen. 1
bioenergy
yield
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Blo
bal B
ioen
ergy
Lev
el (
in E
J)
Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa (in % of total population)
Bioenergy versus Food Security for Scenario Growth, Bioenergy, No Deforestation
No Growth
Growth 100% of 2030
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All regions are affected
Food consumption and food composition are affected
Non linear effects
Bioenergy emphasizes the degradation of the nutritional situation in Sub-Saharan Africa
Technical progress overcomes the negative impact on both food consumption and food composition only if deforestation is allowed.
Overview of the Results
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A competitive market is assumed. Institutional or infrastructure related developments are ignored
overestimation
No endogenous revenue from the agricultural sector due to increasing food prices and production of bioenergy
underestimation
Major Limitations
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ConclusionNON-FOOD USE
DEFORESTATION FOOD SECURITY
The model can deliver possible combination of the different outputs (production frontiers)
Determining the optimal development pathway requires to define priorities based on social value of the competing outputs
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Thank you