““Challenges andChallenges andOpportunities”Opportunities”
Presented by:
Dr. Jesus “Jess” Carreon
Chancellor,
Dallas County Community College District
Purpose of Presentation
To establish a framework that sets in motion a more strategic approach to planning district-wide
To identify Key Challenges
To identify Key Opportunities
“Nothing Nothing influences a state’s prosperity more than the education of its
people.”
SREB Goals for Education: Challenge to Lead, 2002
Dallas County represents * 15% of Texas labor force * 11% of Texas population
PrimaryPrimary Enrollment Drivers
Population
Demographics
Economic Conditions Unemployment Rate (used as indicator)
U.S. Regional Growthby 2025
South and West will comprise majority of growth
Northeast 17.1% Midwest 20.7% West 26% South 36.2%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Population More specifically,
1990 2000 2010Dallas 1,852,810 2,218,899 2,697,280
Texas 16,986,510 20,851,820 25,897,018
U.S. 248,709,873 281,421,906 321,102,935
% Change1990-2000 2000-2010
Dallas 19.8% 21.6%
Texas 22.8% 24.2%
U.S. 13.1% 14.1%
Source: Texas State Data Center , U.S. Census Bureau
Population (cont.)
(In millions)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
?
?
Dallas County
614,799
+ 3,200,000
Source: Texas State Data Center
Demographics
Anglo
52%
Hispanic
32%
Afr-Am 12%
OthersAsian
Anglo
69%Afr-Am 12%
Hispanic 13%
OthersAsian
US TexasTexas
2000 Census
Source: Texas State Data Center , U.S. Census Bureau
Demographics (cont.)
Dallas County by Ethnicity
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Anglo
Afri-American
Hispanic
All Others
Total
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0(in millions)
Source: Texas State Data Center
Demographics (cont.)
High School Graduate (or higher)
Dallas = 75%Dallas = 75% Texas = 75.7%, ranked 45th in U.S
Bachelor’s Degree (or higher) Dallas = 27%Dallas = 27% Texas = 23.3%, ranked 27th in U.S.
Educational Attainment
Source: Texas State Data Center , U.S. Census Bureau
Demographics (cont.)Dallas County Public School Students (K-12)
by Ethnicity, 2002-03
#Students 49,755 199,479 64,102 115,070
Total Students = 428,406
0
10,00020,000
30,00040,000
50,000
60,00070,000
80,00090,000
100,000
Pre-1st 1-6 7-8 9-12
Afr-Am
Hispanic
All Others
Anglo
Level
Source: Texas Education Agency
DCCCD Growth by College 1992-2002
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1992 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2002
CVC
BHC EFC
ECC
MVC *
NLC
RLC+
Fall Credit Students
Source: DCCCD Facts Brief
DCCCDDCCCD Credit Students Gender
FemaleFemale = 58% Male = 42%• Majority female since the 1980’s
Age Average = 28 yrs, Median = 24 yrs
• Somewhat constant since the 1990’s
Source: DCCCD Facts Brief
DCCCD (cont.) Ethnicity
Increasing Diversity
Anglo
Others
Asian
Hispanic
Afri-Am22%
44%9%
20.5%
4%
Anglo
Afri-Am
All Others <2%
Asian
Hispanic
17% 65%
11%
6%
Fall 1992 Fall 2002Fall 2002
55,000 students 60,000 students
Source: DCCCD Facts Brief
Enrollment Forecast
% Change AngloAfrican-
American HispanicAll
Others Total2000-10 3.8 21.5 48.8 50.7 21.22010-20 -3.3 8.9 36.7 47.0 15.52020-30 -1.2 6.1 40.0 43.4 20.5
% Change in Projected Texas Texas
Community College Enrollments
Source: Texas State Data Center
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.50
3.0
3.5
DCCCD Enrollment Forecasts
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
DCCCD Fall Credit Students
2010 20201970 19901980 2000
Population (in millions)
UnknownsUnknowns (and likely to encourage additional growth)
Minority participation rates Increased university tuition
Closing the Gap (GAP) Target = 89,000
Age Cohort Participation (ACP) Estimate = 74,000
Fall 2015
Forecasts (cont.)
The EconomyThe Economy
but, History has taught us. . .
UnknownsUnknowns Caps (limits) on university freshmen class
admissions Aging Boomers and life-long learning Increased need for more post-secondary and
technical education training
DCCCD Lessons Learned
Strong Economy (low unemp rate) credit course demand tends to decrease
Weak Economy (high unemp rate) credit course demand tends to INCREASENCREASE
from the 1990’s to Present
Job Creation & Skills Needed2000-2020
80% of the jobs created will require more post-secondary education and technical training
Top 10 fastest growing jobs are in two areas Information (and related) Health Care (and related)
Lessons (cont.)
All All impacted by weak economy, but Students mostmost vulnerable
• part-time• recently unemployed and under employed• adults• under-prepared• under-served
How the Economy Impacts How the Economy Impacts FundingFunding
State and local revenue sources fluctuate with the economy
In the past, a strong economy has generally supported growth
Competition for resources creates uncertainty!
Economic Comparisons
Strong Economy Dallas unemp lowerlower than state
1998 Avg Unemployment: Dallas = 3.2%Dallas = 3.2% Texas = 4.8%
Historically, during a . . .
Weak Economy Dallas unemp higherhigher than state
2002 Avg Unemployment: Dallas = 7.1%Dallas = 7.1% Texas = 6.3%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
How do these lessons about funding impact the present and
future of theDallas County Community College Dallas County Community College
District?District?
The Bottom Line
As DCCCD credit demand continues to grow, state funding has declined and future stable funding is
uncertain!
State Funding Trends FY1966 - FY2003
Texas Appropriations for Higher Educationper $1,000 of Personal Income
FY 1966 FY 2003
14
12
10
8
6
Source: Postsecondary Education, OPPORTUNITY, Dec 2002
State Appropriation Contribution Ratio
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1982 1990 1995 2000
Pct of Total Educational & General Expenditures
(High)
1984 = 73.4%
est. 2003 = 35.9%
2004 = 36.5%
2002 = 40.3%
DCCCD,1982 - 2004
Source: DCCCD 2002-03 Approved Budget
DCCCD Challenges Economic fluctuations Competition for state and local $ Increased need for an educated and
trained workforce Need to “increase capacity” to meet
demand Changing demographics, technology
and workplace
DCCCD Opportunities Increasing
Population Diversity of Population Need to “expand capacity” to meet student,
community and business demand for a skilled workforce
Enrollment in higher ed (majority of Texas freshmen/sophomores are in community colleges)
Anywhere & Anytime Learning
Preparing and Planning
The challenge of funding The challenge of change The challenge of maintaining quality
programs and services
Toward our Future . . .
Preparing and Planning
The opportunity to continue to shape how DCCCD serves its communities
The opportunity to take greater control of our future
The opportunity to be a greater force in shaping Dallas County, the state of Texas and our nation
Toward our Future . . .
The Future is Ours to Shape . . .
We should always be cognizant that
“People will always pay for qualityquality”!
(a quote from my dad who owned a dry cleaning establishment)