Census Analysis &Policy-making in LondonLondon Census Information Scheme
17 JulyONS User Engagement Workshop
Analytical Output
Commissioned Work
Data Accessibility
London Datastore
London Datastore
Census Analysis to underpin Policy-making in London
1. Mixed and Balanced Communities
2. Claimant Count Model
3. Child Yield Estimation
4. London Infographics
Mixed & Balanced CommunitiesApplying Census Data
The brief
London Assembly asked us to identify areas of London that show the most diversity
Aim to track the impact of interventions on the mix and balance of communities across London
As a benchmark, look at the most diverse areas in 2001 and 2011
Diversity measured across a range of indicators - housing, economic and social characteristics
Domains
Tenure Accommodation type Household composition
Age Socio-Economic Group Ethnic group
Methodology
For each of the six domains:
Calculate Diversity Indices for 2001 and 2011 for local areas in London – Lower Super Output Areas were chosen as small enough to comprise local communities
Index change measures increasing or decreasing diversity between 2001 and 2011
Housing Tenure
2001 2011
Household Composition
2001 2011
Socio-Economic Group
2001 2011
Ethnicity
2001 2011
Measuring overall diversity
Accommodation type, Household Composition and age structure generally higher diversity in outer London
Only Tenure higher in inner London Ethnicity and SEG highest in “clusters”
Counted those LSOAs in top quartile across multiple domains
High Diversity in Multiple Domains
Number of domains0; 1; 2
3
4
5
6
20112001
GLA Claimant Count ModelIncorporating Census Data
Using the Census in GLA Claimant Count models GLA runs two Claimant Count models to
produce claimant count rates as a proportion of the labour force– Age, Sex and Duration (ward level)– Ethnic group, Age and Sex (LA level)
The models rely on bringing together data from a range of sources to produce something meaningful and useful
Monthly Claimant CountLabour force estimate
JSADWP ONS
GLA Population projections
Economic Activity Rates
Economic Activity Rates
age x sex
Ward population
age x sex
Migration(NHSCR + HESA) ONS
Births + DeathsONS registrations
InternationalMigration
(IPS ++)
HRP ratesage, sex &
marital status
Migrationage x sex
Dwellings
Forecast Dwelling Changes
Borough Planning Departments
Change in EconomicActivity Rates
APS
UCDWP ONS
How does the model work?
= census data
Why do we do it?
Wide differences in economic activity rates by age, sex and ethnic group, so labour force estimates give a better indication of the population “at risk” than purely age-based denominators
Used by Boroughs to track and monitor changes in rates for particular sub groups of the population and therefore target efforts and programmes.– Not the full picture of unemployment, but
• more up-to-date than ILO measures• can be done for more detailed geographic areas
Population Yield EstimationAdding value to Census Data
GLA Population Yield Model
Current Approach:– Sample data from Wandsworth and Oxford
New Approach– 2011 Census data– London development data
Development Sites & New OA’s
Yield Rates
Geographically specific For Market & Social units By Number of bedrooms
Yield Rates
Geographically specific For Market & Social units By Number of bedrooms
2 bedroom Market housing East London 0.276
children
Yield Rates
Geographically specific For Market & Social units By Number of bedrooms
3 bedroom Social housing South London 1.847
children
Yield Calculator
Market Units
SocialUnits
1 bedroom 1,774 269 2 bedrooms 1,621 380 3 bedrooms 1,449 608
4 or more bedrooms 537 154
Yield Outputs
West sub-region
Yield 0-9 year olds 2,657 10-18 year olds 1,404 Total 4,061
4,061
West London
4,917
North London
3,855
East London
3,347
South London
3,180
Central London
Next Steps
Produce a total yield in 10-year age bands
Create a tool that allows bespoke geographic aggregations
CIS InfographicsVisualising Census Data
Information graphics (or infographics)Infographics are visual representations of data.They present information quickly and clearly.
CIS infographics
Country of Birth Demography Economic Activity Housing Qualifications Where students live
Demography
Demography
Demography
Demography
Demography
Demography
Demography
Housing
The Labour Market
Data.london.gov.uk/census
Bringing infographics to life
Census Information Scheme
http://data.london.gov.uk/census
Richard WalkerRichard Cameron
William TonkissJack Ryan