Download pdf - Cb february 2014 gubernatorial primary (1)

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Statewide Registered Voter Sample = 1,003Margin of Error = +/- 3.1%29% Cell Phones, 71% Landlines

This upcoming August, Brian Schatz and Colleen Hanabusa [candidate name order randomized] will face each other in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, and Neil Abercrombie and David Ige [candidate name order randomized] will run in the Democratic primary for Governor. In Hawaii, you can only vote in one party’s primary—you must choose between voting in the Democratic Primary, the Republican primary, or another party’s primary. What are you most likely to do on primary day in August?

DemScreenDemScreenDemScreen

Democratic 64%GOP 19%Other/None 7%Unsure 10%

Likely Democratic Primary Voter Sample = 643Margin of Error = +/- 3.9%

--Do you generally have a positive or negative opinion of Governor Neil Abercrombie?

AbercrombieAbercrombieAbercrombie

Positive 42% Negative 46%

Unsure 12%

--Do you generally have a positive or negative opinion of State Senator David Ige?

IgeIgeIge

Positive 31% Negative 13%

Unsure 56%

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--If you vote in the Democratic primary for Governor between Neil Abercrombie and David Ige [candidate name order randomized], what would you do?

GovernorGovernorGovernor

Abercrombie 37% Ige 37%

Unsure 26%

--How do you feel about Barack Obama’s job performance as President?

ObamaObamaObama

Approve 74% Disapprove 22%

Unsure 3%

Demographics (Likely Democratic Primary Voters)

SexSexSex

Male 47% Female 53%

AgeAgeAge

Under 50 26% Fifty and over 74%

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Race_EthnicityRace_EthnicityRace_Ethnicity

Caucasian 35% Japanese 29%

Filipino 9%

Hawaiian 8%

Chinese 5%

Hispanic 1%

Other/Mixed 13%

Refused 0%

County_CDCounty_CDCounty_CD

Oahu_CD1 50%Oahu_CD2 18%Hawaii 14%Maui 12%Kauai 5%

PoliticsPoliticsPolitics

Liberal/progressive 38%Moderate 36%Conservative 13%Unsure 13%

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PartyPartyParty

Democrat 75% Republican 7%

Independent 16%

Unsure 2%

EducationEducationEducation

No degree 2% HS graduate 12%

College Graduate 25%

Some/Assoc/Voc 27%

Grad Degree 30%

Refused 2%

Military_FamilyMilitary_FamilyMilitary_Family

Yes 61%No 37%Refused 3%

Union_FamilyUnion_FamilyUnion_Family

Yes 38% No 59%

Refused 4%

IncomeIncomeIncome

Under $50,000 24% $50,000 - $99,999 36%

$100,000 or more 21%

Refused 19%

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Opinion Crosstabs

Governor * Abercrombie CrosstabulationGovernor * Abercrombie CrosstabulationGovernor * Abercrombie CrosstabulationGovernor * Abercrombie CrosstabulationGovernor * Abercrombie Crosstabulation% within Abercrombie% within Abercrombie% within Abercrombie% within Abercrombie% within Abercrombie

AbercrombieAbercrombieAbercrombie

Positive Negative Unsure

Governor Abercrombie 78% 6% 11%GovernorIge 5% 68% 32%

Governor

Unsure 17% 26% 58%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%

Abercrombie * Governor CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Governor CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Governor CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Governor CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Governor Crosstabulation% within Governor% within Governor% within Governor% within Governor% within Governor


Abercrombie Ige Unsure

Abercrombie Positive 89% 6% 28%AbercrombieNegative 8% 85% 47%

Abercrombie


Governor * Ige CrosstabulationGovernor * Ige CrosstabulationGovernor * Ige CrosstabulationGovernor * Ige CrosstabulationGovernor * Ige Crosstabulation% within Ige% within Ige% within Ige% within Ige% within Ige

IgeIgeIge

Positive Negative Unsure

Governor Abercrombie 20% 64% 40%GovernorIge 72% 19% 22%

Governor


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Ige * Governor CrosstabulationIge * Governor CrosstabulationIge * Governor CrosstabulationIge * Governor CrosstabulationIge * Governor Crosstabulation% within Governor% within Governor% within Governor% within Governor% within Governor


Abercrombie Ige Unsure

Ige Positive 17% 60% 10%IgeNegative 23% 7% 9%

Ige


Abercrombie * Obama CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Obama CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Obama CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Obama CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Obama Crosstabulation% within Obama% within Obama% within Obama% within Obama% within Obama

ObamaObamaObama Approve Disapprove UnsureAbercrombie Positive 50% 16% 32%Abercrombie

Negative 38% 76% 32%Abercrombie


Ige * Obama CrosstabulationIge * Obama CrosstabulationIge * Obama CrosstabulationIge * Obama CrosstabulationIge * Obama Crosstabulation% within Obama% within Obama% within Obama% within Obama% within Obama

ObamaObamaObama Approve Disapprove UnsureIge Positive 29% 40% 14%Ige

Negative 13% 17% Ige


Governor * Obama CrosstabulationGovernor * Obama CrosstabulationGovernor * Obama CrosstabulationGovernor * Obama CrosstabulationGovernor * Obama Crosstabulation% within Obama% within Obama% within Obama% within Obama% within Obama

ObamaObamaObama Approve Disapprove UnsureGovernor Abercrombie 44% 15% 23%Governor

Ige 31% 62% 14%Governor


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Demographic Crosstabs

Abercrombie * Sex CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Sex CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Sex CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Sex CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Sex CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Sex Crosstabulation% within Sex% within Sex% within Sex% within Sex% within Sex% within Sex

SexSexSex Male Female RefusedAbercrombie Positive 38% 46% Abercrombie


Unsure 11% 11% TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%

Abercrombie * Age CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Age CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Age CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Age CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Age Crosstabulation% within Age% within Age% within Age% within Age% within Age

AgeAge

Under 50

Fifty and over

Abercrombie Positive 43% 43%AbercrombieNegative 48% 46%

Abercrombie

Unsure 9% 11%TotalTotal 100% 100%

Abercrombie * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity

Race_EthnicityRace_EthnicityRace_EthnicityRace_EthnicityRace_EthnicityRace_EthnicityRace_Ethnicity

Caucasian

Japanese

Filipino

Hawaiian

Chinese

Hispanic

Other/Mixed

Abercrombie

Positive 55% 31% 44% 45% 29% 40% 38%Abercrombie Negativ

e38% 53% 43% 45% 61% 60% 53%

Abercrombie

Unsure 7% 16% 13% 10% 11% 0% 9%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

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Abercrombie * County_CD CrosstabulationAbercrombie * County_CD CrosstabulationAbercrombie * County_CD CrosstabulationAbercrombie * County_CD CrosstabulationAbercrombie * County_CD CrosstabulationAbercrombie * County_CD CrosstabulationAbercrombie * County_CD CrosstabulationAbercrombie * County_CD Crosstabulation% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD

County_CDCounty_CDCounty_CDCounty_CDCounty_CD

Oahu_CD1 Oahu_CD2 Hawaii Maui Kauai

Abercrombie Positive 37% 46% 38% 63% 39%AbercrombieNegative 53% 45% 46% 24% 39%

Abercrombie

Unsure 10% 9% 16% 13% 22%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Abercrombie * Politics CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Politics CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Politics CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Politics CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Politics CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Politics CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Politics Crosstabulation% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics

PoliticsPoliticsPoliticsPolitics

Liberal/progressive Moderate Conservative Unsure

Abercrombie Positive 62% 34% 24% 31%AbercrombieNegative 28% 57% 71% 46%

Abercrombie

Unsure 10% 9% 5% 23%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100%

Abercrombie * Party CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Party CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Party CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Party CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Party CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Party CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Party Crosstabulation% within Party% within Party% within Party% within Party% within Party% within Party% within Party

PartyPartyPartyParty

Democrat Republican Independent Unsure


Abercrombie


Abercrombie * Education CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Education CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Education CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Education CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Education CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Education CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Education CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Education CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Education Crosstabulation% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education

EducationEducationEducationEducationEducationEducation

No degree

HS graduate

College Graduate

Some/Assoc/Voc

Grad Degree Refused

Abercrombie Positive 40% 45% 42% 40% 46% 50%AbercrombieNegative 33% 41% 49% 44% 50% 21%

Abercrombie

Unsure 27% 15% 9% 15% 4% 29%TotalTotal 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

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Abercrombie * Military_Family CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Military_Family CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Military_Family CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Military_Family CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Military_Family CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Military_Family Crosstabulation% within Military_Family% within Military_Family% within Military_Family% within Military_Family% within Military_Family% within Military_Family

Military_FamilyMilitary_FamilyMilitary_Family Yes No RefusedAbercrombie Positive 41% 48% 24%Abercrombie



Abercrombie * Union_Family CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Union_Family CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Union_Family CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Union_Family CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Union_Family CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Union_Family Crosstabulation% within Union_Family% within Union_Family% within Union_Family% within Union_Family% within Union_Family% within Union_Family

Union_FamilyUnion_FamilyUnion_Family Yes No RefusedAbercrombie Positive 33% 51% 29%Abercrombie



Abercrombie * Income CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Income CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Income CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Income CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Income CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Income CrosstabulationAbercrombie * Income Crosstabulation% within Income% within Income% within Income% within Income% within Income% within Income% within Income

IncomeIncomeIncomeIncome

Under $50,000

$50,000 - $99,999

$100,000 or more Refused


Abercrombie


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Ige * Sex CrosstabulationIge * Sex CrosstabulationIge * Sex CrosstabulationIge * Sex CrosstabulationIge * Sex CrosstabulationIge * Sex Crosstabulation% within Sex% within Sex% within Sex% within Sex% within Sex% within Sex

SexSexSex Male Female RefusedIge Positive 31% 31% 50%Ige

Negative 14% 13% 50%Ige

Unsure 55% 56% TotalTotal 100% 100% 100%

Ige * Age CrosstabulationIge * Age CrosstabulationIge * Age CrosstabulationIge * Age CrosstabulationIge * Age Crosstabulation% within Age% within Age% within Age% within Age% within Age

AgeAge

Under 50

Fifty and over

Ige Positive 30% 33%IgeNegative 18% 12%

Ige


Ige * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationIge * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationIge * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationIge * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationIge * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationIge * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationIge * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationIge * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationIge * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationIge * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity


Caucasian

Japanese Filipino

Hawaiian

Chinese

Hispanic

Other/Mixed

Ige Positive 21% 52% 28% 20% 29% 50% 22%IgeNegative

15% 5% 26% 18% 4% 22%Ige


Ige * County_CD CrosstabulationIge * County_CD CrosstabulationIge * County_CD CrosstabulationIge * County_CD CrosstabulationIge * County_CD CrosstabulationIge * County_CD CrosstabulationIge * County_CD CrosstabulationIge * County_CD Crosstabulation% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD



Ige Positive 41% 34% 17% 13% 11%IgeNegative 12% 14% 15% 18% 9%

Ige


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Ige * Politics CrosstabulationIge * Politics CrosstabulationIge * Politics CrosstabulationIge * Politics CrosstabulationIge * Politics CrosstabulationIge * Politics CrosstabulationIge * Politics Crosstabulation% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics



Ige Positive 28% 35% 42% 21%IgeNegative 16% 12% 14% 9%

Ige


Ige * Party CrosstabulationIge * Party CrosstabulationIge * Party CrosstabulationIge * Party CrosstabulationIge * Party CrosstabulationIge * Party CrosstabulationIge * Party Crosstabulation% within Party% within Party% within Party% within Party% within Party% within Party% within Party




Ige


Ige * Education CrosstabulationIge * Education CrosstabulationIge * Education CrosstabulationIge * Education CrosstabulationIge * Education CrosstabulationIge * Education CrosstabulationIge * Education CrosstabulationIge * Education CrosstabulationIge * Education Crosstabulation% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education


No degree

HS graduate

College Graduate Some/Assoc/Voc

Grad Degree Refused

Ige Positive 33% 23% 33% 28% 34% 54%IgeNegative 11% 16% 9% 18%

Ige


Ige * Military_Family CrosstabulationIge * Military_Family CrosstabulationIge * Military_Family CrosstabulationIge * Military_Family CrosstabulationIge * Military_Family CrosstabulationIge * Military_Family Crosstabulation% within Military_Family% within Military_Family% within Military_Family% within Military_Family% within Military_Family% within Military_Family

Military_FamilyMilitary_FamilyMilitary_Family Yes No RefusedIge Positive 31% 31% 31%Ige



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Ige * Union_Family CrosstabulationIge * Union_Family CrosstabulationIge * Union_Family CrosstabulationIge * Union_Family CrosstabulationIge * Union_Family CrosstabulationIge * Union_Family Crosstabulation% within Union_Family% within Union_Family% within Union_Family% within Union_Family% within Union_Family% within Union_Family

Union_FamilyUnion_FamilyUnion_Family Yes No RefusedIge Positive 33% 29% 43%Ige



Ige * Income CrosstabulationIge * Income CrosstabulationIge * Income CrosstabulationIge * Income CrosstabulationIge * Income CrosstabulationIge * Income CrosstabulationIge * Income Crosstabulation% within Income% within Income% within Income% within Income% within Income% within Income% within Income


Under $50,000

$50,000 - $99,999



Ige


Governor * Sex CrosstabulationGovernor * Sex CrosstabulationGovernor * Sex CrosstabulationGovernor * Sex CrosstabulationGovernor * Sex CrosstabulationGovernor * Sex Crosstabulation% within Sex% within Sex% within Sex% within Sex% within Sex% within Sex

SexSexSex Male Female RefusedGovernor Abercrombie 35% 39% Governor



Governor * Age CrosstabulationGovernor * Age CrosstabulationGovernor * Age CrosstabulationGovernor * Age CrosstabulationGovernor * Age Crosstabulation% within Age% within Age% within Age% within Age% within Age

AgeAge

Under 50

Fifty and over

Governor Abercrombie 38% 38%GovernorIge 31% 40%

Governor


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Governor * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationGovernor * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationGovernor * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationGovernor * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationGovernor * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationGovernor * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationGovernor * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationGovernor * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationGovernor * Race_Ethnicity CrosstabulationGovernor * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity% within Race_Ethnicity


Caucasian

Japanese

Filipino

Hawaiian

Chinese

Hispanic

Other/Mixed

GovernorAbercrombie

49% 24% 38% 41% 26% 40% 40%Governor

Ige 29% 51% 21% 35% 48% 60% 35%

Governor


Governor * County_CD CrosstabulationGovernor * County_CD CrosstabulationGovernor * County_CD CrosstabulationGovernor * County_CD CrosstabulationGovernor * County_CD CrosstabulationGovernor * County_CD CrosstabulationGovernor * County_CD CrosstabulationGovernor * County_CD Crosstabulation% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD% within County_CD



Governor Abercrombie 33% 40% 31% 58% 24%GovernorIge 45% 34% 34% 23% 24%

Governor


14

Governor * Politics CrosstabulationGovernor * Politics CrosstabulationGovernor * Politics CrosstabulationGovernor * Politics CrosstabulationGovernor * Politics CrosstabulationGovernor * Politics CrosstabulationGovernor * Politics Crosstabulation% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics% within Politics



Governor Abercrombie 53% 32% 25% 21%GovernorIge 19% 47% 63% 36%

Governor


Governor * Party CrosstabulationGovernor * Party CrosstabulationGovernor * Party CrosstabulationGovernor * Party CrosstabulationGovernor * Party CrosstabulationGovernor * Party CrosstabulationGovernor * Party Crosstabulation% within Party% within Party% within Party% within Party% within Party% within Party% within Party




Governor


Governor * Education CrosstabulationGovernor * Education CrosstabulationGovernor * Education CrosstabulationGovernor * Education CrosstabulationGovernor * Education CrosstabulationGovernor * Education CrosstabulationGovernor * Education CrosstabulationGovernor * Education CrosstabulationGovernor * Education Crosstabulation% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education% within Education


No degree

HS graduate

College Graduate

Some/Assoc/Voc

Grad Degree Refused

Governor Abercrombie 40% 34% 39% 33% 42% 43%GovernorIge 20% 38% 38% 41% 34% 14%

Governor


Governor * Military_Family CrosstabulationGovernor * Military_Family CrosstabulationGovernor * Military_Family CrosstabulationGovernor * Military_Family CrosstabulationGovernor * Military_Family CrosstabulationGovernor * Military_Family Crosstabulation% within Military_Family% within Military_Family% within Military_Family% within Military_Family% within Military_Family% within Military_Family

Military_FamilyMilitary_FamilyMilitary_Family Yes No RefusedGovernor Abercrombie 37% 41% 24%Governor



15

Governor * Union_Family CrosstabulationGovernor * Union_Family CrosstabulationGovernor * Union_Family CrosstabulationGovernor * Union_Family CrosstabulationGovernor * Union_Family CrosstabulationGovernor * Union_Family Crosstabulation% within Union_Family% within Union_Family% within Union_Family% within Union_Family% within Union_Family% within Union_Family

Union_FamilyUnion_FamilyUnion_Family Yes No RefusedGovernor Abercrombie 30% 44% 14%Governor



Governor * Income CrosstabulationGovernor * Income CrosstabulationGovernor * Income CrosstabulationGovernor * Income CrosstabulationGovernor * Income CrosstabulationGovernor * Income CrosstabulationGovernor * Income Crosstabulation% within Income% within Income% within Income% within Income% within Income% within Income% within Income


Under $50,000

$50,000 - $99,999



Governor
