Transcript
Page 1: Catch+the+moment+of+tet+ +understanding+retailer+sentiment+-+09

UNDERSTANDING RETAILER SENTIMENT

CATCH THE MOMENT OF ‘TET’

Page 2: Catch+the+moment+of+tet+ +understanding+retailer+sentiment+-+09

Co

pyr

igh

t ©

2013

Th

e N

iels

en C

om

pan

y. C

on

fid

enti

al a

nd

pro

pri

etar

y.

2

3. WHAT IS EXPECTED IN TET 2015?

2. WHAT CHANGED IN TET 2014?

1. THE HISTORICAL TET

UNDERSTANDING

Page 3: Catch+the+moment+of+tet+ +understanding+retailer+sentiment+-+09

Co

pyr

igh

t ©

2013

Th

e N

iels

en C

om

pan

y. C

on

fid

enti

al a

nd

pro

pri

etar

y.

3

SLUGGISH GROWTH

GROWING EXPORTS

MODERATE INFLATION

THE VIETNAM MARKET IS SEEING TWO STREAMS

CPI

EXPORT GROWTH

GDP

2013 2014 TARGET 2014 YTD

Source: GSO

Source: GSO

Source: GSO

Page 4: Catch+the+moment+of+tet+ +understanding+retailer+sentiment+-+09

Co

pyr

igh

t ©

2013

Th

e N

iels

en C

om

pan

y. C

on

fid

enti

al a

nd

pro

pri

etar

y.

4

Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics – Total Vietnam (MT2Partial)

12.4%

-5.1%

15.1% 13.6%

13.8%

7.7%

-1.3% -4.2%

-8.6%

-5.8%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

THE VOLATILITY OF MARKET MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT LONG TERM TREND…

Nationwide – 15 categories

Source: Nielsen Regional Growth Reporter – Growth vs YA

Page 5: Catch+the+moment+of+tet+ +understanding+retailer+sentiment+-+09

Co

pyr

igh

t ©

2013

Th

e N

iels

en C

om

pan

y. C

on

fid

enti

al a

nd

pro

pri

etar

y.

5

HOW WILL TET 2015 BE?

Page 6: Catch+the+moment+of+tet+ +understanding+retailer+sentiment+-+09

Co

pyr

igh

t ©

2013

Th

e N

iels

en C

om

pan

y. C

on

fid

enti

al a

nd

pro

pri

etar

y.

6

3. WHAT IS EXPECTED IN TET 2015?

2. WHAT CHANGED IN TET 2014?

1. THE HISTORICAL TET

UNDERSTANDING

Page 7: Catch+the+moment+of+tet+ +understanding+retailer+sentiment+-+09

Co

pyr

igh

t ©

2012

Th

e N

iels

en C

om

pan

y. C

on

fid

enti

al a

nd

pro

pri

etar

y.

7

BEER, SOFT DRINK & BISCUIT/CANDY ARE THE TOP MOST RECALLED CATEGORIES FOR TET

BEER CARBONATED SOFT DRINK

BISCUIT/ CANDY

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

150.0

160.0

170.0

180.0

CSD

Biscuit

Pie & Sponge Cake

Beer

HCL

Granules

Soluble Coffee

VOLUME SEASONALITY INDEX – 6 CT TT

Source: Nielsen Retail Audit & Tet Study 2014 (N=192 HCMC + HN) Question: What are the top 3 best selling categories in your stores in Tet?

Page 8: Catch+the+moment+of+tet+ +understanding+retailer+sentiment+-+09

Co

pyr

igh

t ©

2012

Th

e N

iels

en C

om

pan

y. C

on

fid

enti

al a

nd

pro

pri

etar

y.

8

Super group_trend6 CT TT - Stocks | Period Ending JUL14 | Share of Total Non-Food

NOV 25%

JAN 13%

DEC 45%

34% 37% 52% 20%

BIG SMALL

MOST RETAILERS START STOCKING IN NOV/DEC AND MAINLY STOCK FOR BEVERAGE & FOOD

WHEN?

WHAT?

Question: Which month do you normally start stocking for Tet?

Source: Nielsen Retail Audit & Tet Study 2014 (N=192 HCMC + HN)

Note: Super-groups are on different scales

Personal Care & Home Care stocks still manage to increase, yet at lesser extent

STOCKING

Page 9: Catch+the+moment+of+tet+ +understanding+retailer+sentiment+-+09

Co

pyr

igh

t ©

2013

Th

e N

iels

en C

om

pan

y. C

on

fid

enti

al a

nd

pro

pri

etar

y.

9

3. WHAT IS EXPECTED IN TET 2015?

2. WHAT CHANGED IN TET 2014?

1. THE HISTORICAL TET

UNDERSTANDING

Page 10: Catch+the+moment+of+tet+ +understanding+retailer+sentiment+-+09

Co

pyr

igh

t ©

2012

Th

e N

iels

en C

om

pan

y. C

on

fid

enti

al a

nd

pro

pri

etar

y.

10

DESPITE THE INCREASE IN PURCHASES RETAILERS NEVER SAW THE OFF TAKE IN 2014

49%

33%

17%

Less

Same

More

19 26

18 17 10

16

CSD Beer

6 CT TT - Volume % Chg vs. PP

Tet'12 Tet'13 Tet'14

14 13 9

16

9 11

Urban Rural

Granules - Volume % Chg vs. PP

Declining off-take of Tet’14 is mainly seen in Beverage, esp. CSD

Rural seems to be more impacted than Urban when compared with previous Tet

Question: How was the off-take of Tet'14

compared with previous Tet in your store?

Source: Nielsen Retail Audit & Tet Study 2014 (N=192 HCMC + HN)

Tet’12 (Dec-Jan-Feb); Tet’13 (Jan-Feb-Mar); Tet’14 (Dec-Jan-Feb)

Page 11: Catch+the+moment+of+tet+ +understanding+retailer+sentiment+-+09

Co

pyr

igh

t ©

2013

Th

e N

iels

en C

om

pan

y. C

on

fid

enti

al a

nd

pro

pri

etar

y.

11

3. WHAT IS EXPECTED IN TET 2015?

2. WHAT CHANGED IN TET 2014?

1. THE HISTORICAL TET

UNDERSTANDING

Page 12: Catch+the+moment+of+tet+ +understanding+retailer+sentiment+-+09

Co

pyr

igh

t ©

2012

Th

e N

iels

en C

om

pan

y. C

on

fid

enti

al a

nd

pro

pri

etar

y.

12

STOCKING PERIODS SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME AS IN THE PAST, BUT SHOULD WE BE PUSHING EARLIER?

Source: Tet Study 2014

24 29 19

37 22

12

40 45

35

40

40 40

21 16

26

9 23

32

11 8 15 4

15 15

Total(n=192)

HCM(n=98)

HN(n=94)

Big(n=67)

Medium(n=65)

Small(n=60)

Month retailers start stocking for Tet’15

November December January Not stock for Tet

Question:Which month do you plan to start stocking for Tet’15?

Page 13: Catch+the+moment+of+tet+ +understanding+retailer+sentiment+-+09

Co

pyr

igh

t ©

2012

Th

e N

iels

en C

om

pan

y. C

on

fid

enti

al a

nd

pro

pri

etar

y.

13

51 %

1

39%

NEARLY HALF PLAN ON STOCKING LESS FOR TET’15

Source: Tet Study 2014

Question: What are reasons for you to plan reducing level of stock for Tet'15 compared with Tet'14? To what extent do you plan to reduce the stock level for Tet’15 compared with Tet'14?

45%

42%

13%

Less Same More

Question: Compared with Tet'14,

how do you plan stocking for Tet’15?

HCMC (n= 98)

Hanoi (n= 94)

Declining consumer demand

72%

Declining personal finance

24%

29% 55% 16%

48% 44% 8%

Stock reduction by

(n= 38)

(n= 48)

STOCKING

WHY?

Page 14: Catch+the+moment+of+tet+ +understanding+retailer+sentiment+-+09

Co

pyr

igh

t ©

2012

Th

e N

iels

en C

om

pan

y. C

on

fid

enti

al a

nd

pro

pri

etar

y.

14

61 %

47 %

ALARMINGLY OVER HALF ANTICIPATE LOWER OFF-TAKE VS. TET’14

Source: Tet Study 2014

Question: To what extent do you anticipate off-take of Tet'15 will decline compared with Tet’14?

54% 34%

13%

Less Same More

Question: How do you anticipate the off-take Tet’15 compared with previous Tet?

HCMC (n= 98)

Hanoi (n= 94)

37% 48% 15%

42% 44% 14%

Declining off-take by

(n= 46)

(n= 57)

Page 15: Catch+the+moment+of+tet+ +understanding+retailer+sentiment+-+09

BUT HOW CAN I WIN DESPITE THIS DOOM AND GLOOM?

Page 16: Catch+the+moment+of+tet+ +understanding+retailer+sentiment+-+09

Co

pyr

igh

t ©

2012

Th

e N

iels

en C

om

pan

y. C

on

fid

enti

al a

nd

pro

pri

etar

y.

16

RETAILERS WANT ASSURANCES THAT YOUR PRODUCTS WILL SELL

Source: Tet Study 2014

Quality guarantee/ Product return/ refund support

Provide POSM/ Decoration materials to promote for Tet

Promotion scheme for retailers achieving Tet sale target

Promotion scheme for retailers having impressive display

Quality guarantee/ Product return/ refund support

Provide POSM/ Decoration materials to promote for Tet

Promotion activities for end-users

Promotion scheme for retailers having impressive display

HCMC (n= 98)

Hanoi (n= 94)

57%

47%

39%

29%

74%

33%

32%

24%

Question: To attract more consumers in Tet, what kind of activities you would

like manufacturers to support your stores?

Page 17: Catch+the+moment+of+tet+ +understanding+retailer+sentiment+-+09

Co

pyr

igh

t ©

2012

Th

e N

iels

en C

om

pan

y. C

on

fid

enti

al a

nd

pro

pri

etar

y.

17

STATING THE OBVIOUS – MARGINS MATTER

Source: Tet Study 2014 Question: Which retailer incentive schemes do you prefer?

Tangible gift (eg. Rice cooker, Washing machine, etc.)

% Margin on Purchase 90%

47%

30% Bonus same product if meet

sales target

Page 18: Catch+the+moment+of+tet+ +understanding+retailer+sentiment+-+09

Co

pyr

igh

t ©

2012

Th

e N

iels

en C

om

pan

y. C

on

fid

enti

al a

nd

pro

pri

etar

y.

18

SHOPPERS ARE SEEKING INSTANT VALUE WITH ATTRACTIVE APPEARANCE PRODUCTS

Source: Tet Study 2014

Economic Offer (eg. Discount, super-saving package, etc.)

Attached gifts (toys, kitchenware,

etc.)

Nice/ eye-catching

Tet packing

Question On the scale from 1 to 5, please rank the preference of shoppers at your stores towards these offers?

68%

52%

66%

% Preferred & Preferred Most

Similar between HCMC & Hanoi,

except Lucky Draw, in which HCMC prefers this type more than Hanoi (44% vs. 19%)

Page 19: Catch+the+moment+of+tet+ +understanding+retailer+sentiment+-+09

WHERE TO FROM HERE

Page 20: Catch+the+moment+of+tet+ +understanding+retailer+sentiment+-+09

Co

pyr

igh

t ©

2012

Th

e N

iels

en C

om

pan

y. C

on

fid

enti

al a

nd

pro

pri

etar

y.

20

MORE PURCHASING POWER

Source: Monthly income per capita: GSO 2012 Occupation structure & Urbanization rate: Rural Census 2011

Education level: Nielsen Rural Syndicated Study 2009 & Nielsen Rural 2014

COMPETITION WILL GROW SO WE NEED TO ENGAGE RETAILERS

Engage earlier e.g. XMAS and Easter in Europe and US

Stack them high see them fly But if it doesn’t, will you buy it back?

Times are tough but people still will pay for value

Don’t stop innovating This is when people try new things

Page 21: Catch+the+moment+of+tet+ +understanding+retailer+sentiment+-+09

“A PESSIMIST SEES THE DIFFICULTY IN EVERY OPPORTUNITY; AN OPTIMIST SEES THE OPPORTUNITY IN EVERY DIFFICULTY.” WINSTON CHURCHILL