• HAMBURG| 26 SEPTEMBER 2013
Professor Alan McKinnon
Kühne Logistics University
Hamburg
Carbon Footprint Reduction in Freight Transportation and Logistics
Logistics Cloud Final Conference
Brussels
27 September 2017
Prof. Dr. Alan McKinnon, Christoph Flöthmann, Prof. Dr. Kai Hoberg | KLU
Increase in average global temperature by month: 1880 - 2017
High average temperatures in 2016 partly
due to El Nino effect
Global average temperature anomaly
relative to 1980-2015 mean
Bangladesh, Nepal, Indiamonsoon floods 2017
Increased frequency and
intensity of extreme
weather
1st time 2 category 4 hurricanes hit US
mainland in one year
Harvey and Irma
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201707
Prof. Dr. Alan McKinnon, Christoph Flöthmann, Prof. Dr. Kai Hoberg | KLU
UNFCC COP 21 Conference on Climate Change December 2015
Bottom-up rather top-down approach to securing country commitmentsIntended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)
Source: Figueres et al, Nature June 2017
At present rate of greenhouse gas emissions:(to have 66% chance of staying within limit)
9 years to stay with 1.5oC limit19 years to stay with 2.0oC limit
Source: Anderson (2015)
International agreement to keep average global temperature ‘well below’ 2oC above pre-industrial times and ‘endeavor to limit’ them to 1.5oC
Source: Ed Hawkins
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/07/
27/spiral-tastic-climate-change-in-three-
animations
2015
Freight Transport Contribution to GHG Emissions
IDDRI (2014)Freight share of total GHG emissions:
2010: 7% 2050: 16% (business as usual projection)
One of the ‘most challenging sectors’ in which to achieve ‘deep emission reductions’
OECD / ITF Transport Outlook (2017)
• 3x increase in freight tonne-km between 2015 and 2050• heavy dependence on fossil fuels
Freight transport alone would be 30% of allowable emissions by 2050
To meet EU target of 60% reduction in total CO2 emissions from freight transport
between 1990 and 2050 current carbon intensity of freight transport must fall 80-85%
‘factor 5 or 6 reduction’
How good are we measuring changes in the carbon intensity of freight transport?
Conclusion 1: ‘Development of consistent carbon footprint measurement and reporting is
essential to drive decarbonisation’
Administration / IT / Buildings / Commuting
Vehicle Exhaust
(tank to wheel)
Energy Supply Chain (WtW)
Vehicle / Infrastructure Maintenance
Vehicle / Infrastructure Constructionverification of the reported figures
over-reliance on default carbon intensity values
need to extend scope of the CO2 calculation
Adapted from NTM, Sweden
Conclusion 2. ‘Achieving zero emission freight logistics by 2050 is a sound objective’
Setting corporate GHG reduction targets in
line with evidence from climate science
• Current mismatch between corporate carbon intensity targets and governmental / planetary targets for absolute reductions in GHG emissions
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
0 2 4 6 8Co
sts
->
CO2 saved->
Target
Source: Tavasszy (2017)
Harvesting low hanging fruit falls well short of target
Is freight transport / logistics a special case, given:
Key role in climate change adaptation and decarbonisation of other sectors
Relatively high carbon mitigation costs?
Should emission targets for this sector be expressed in carbon budget terms rather than on an annualised basis?
• More ambitious target than 2011 White Paper target
http://www.dhl.com/en/press/releases/releases_2017/all/dpdhl_commits_to_zero
_emissions_logistics_by_2050.html
Conclusion 3: . ‘Clear carbon footpath reduction pathways are needed and supported
by smart regulations’
Estimated CO2 savings from road freight decarbonisationactions 2015-2030 (source: Greening et al 2016)
Needed to make targets credible
No single pathway
Pathways vary in:
• probability of success
• cost effectiveness
• reliance on technology, regulation, behavioural change etc
Need multi-stakeholder engagement
Need to recognize and evaluate co-benefits
UK 5-yearly carbon budgets
SMART regulations?
SpecificMeasurableAchievableRealisticTimely
https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/CfSRF-An-assessment-
of-the-potential-for-demand-side-fuel-savings-in-the-HGV-sector.pdf
Five Sets of Decarbonisation Initiatives for Freight Transport
Reduce Demand for Freight Transport
Reduce the Carbon Content of Freight Transport Energy
Shift Freight to Lower Carbon Transport Modes
Optimise Vehicle Loading
Increase Energy Efficiency of Freight Movement
5 sets of decarbonisation initiative for freight transport
Reduce Demand for Freight Transport
Reduce Carbon Content of Freight Transport Energy
Shift Freight to Lower Carbon Transport Modes
Optimise Vehicle Loading
Increase Energy Efficiency of Freight Movement
supply chain synergies and collaboration
co-modality and synchromodality
improvements in vehicle design
major workshop themes
Co-modality and Synchromodality
‘…well-synchronized, smart and seamless network, supported by corridors and hubs, providing optimal support to supply chains’
strategic corridors synchronised schedulesintermodal hubs
road
rail
IWW
2030 modal shares if EU 2011 White Paper target is achieved*
Wider supply chain application of synchromodality principle1
Slower freight movement in a low carbon world – could facilitate modal shift
Need to redefine modal shift target:
•choice of metrics
•differing rates of modal decarbonisation
*based on analysis by Tavasszy and van Meijeren (2011) 1Dong, Boute, McKinnon and Verelst et al (2017)
source: PTV
Supply Chain Synergies and Collaboration
‘..transition from individually managed supply chains to open supply networks ..expected to provide better asset, vehicle and infrastructure utilization’
bilateral multi-lateral
opportunistic
strategic
standard
network-based
PI vision 2050
collaborative reach
coll
abo
rati
ve c
om
mit
me
nt
Gain sharing calculator
Business modelsChanged mindsetsCase studies
Neutral trustees / orchestratorsData sharing platformsTRUST
Deep decarbonisation of logistics will require collective action: will it require the physical internet?
Collaboration impacts on all decarbonisation levers
Long term advocacy of collaboration, but still relatively little hard evidence of it in logistics sector
Currently shipper-driven – need to engage logistics services sector more effectively
Conclusion 4: ‘Supply network co-ordination, collaboration and synchromodality are major logistics concepts
contributing to decarbonisation: need to be further supported and promoted.’
Source: ALICE
Vehicle Improvement
‘…increased efficiency of ICE vehicles, progressive deployment of alternative fuels and vehicles more adapted to freight operations’
Fuel Economy Standards for Heavy Duty Vehicles
Source: ICCT (2015)
EEDI ship efficiency ratings
Pathways to low carbon energy: biofuels, batteries, hydrogen, power-to-gas, electrified highways?
Relaxation of truck size and weight limits – modal split impacts and political opposition?
Contribution of vehicle automation to the decarbonisation of freight transport and logistics?
EU lagging?
Need for fuel economy standards to drive upgrades?
source: IEA (2017)
CO2e emissions from road freight transport: reference (i.e. baseline)
scenario vs modern truck(i.e. low carbon) scenario
freight activity
energy efficiency
reference scenarioimproved loading
switch to biofuels
switch to electricity
modern truck scenario
Assessing Carbon Savings from Efficiency Improvements and Switch to Alternative Energy
IRU (2017) ‘Commercial Vehicle of the Future’
• battery powered• 300 mile range• autonomous• platooning
TESLA truck
a gamechanger?
Kühne Logistics University – the KLUWissenschaftliche Hochschule für Logistik und UnternehmensführungGrosser Grasbrook 1720457 Hamburg
tel.: +49 40 328707-271fax: +49 40 328707-109
e-mail: [email protected]: www.the-klu.org
www.alanmckinnon.co.uk
Professor Alan McKinnon
@alancmckinnon