Buy German Arms, Get Foreign Aid Free!
Austin Baker Abby Cooner
Prof. Vreeland Krogh Honors Seminar
The Global Arms Trade• Eclectic Buying Patterns• Highly Competitive• Buyer’s Market
Research Question
German Arms
Exports
German Foreign Aid
Independent Variable Dependent Variable
Hypothesis
• If a country imports German arms, they are more likely to receive German foreign aid.
How does this make sense?
The Process
Foreign Country
German Arms Manufacturers
Federal Security Council
Chancellor
Bundestag
Buys Arms
Receives Aid BDSV
Export Permits
Methodology
• Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)–Arms transfers database
• OECD Data (Vreeland, et. al.)• Adapted from “Model 5”–Country and year fixed-effects–1989-2009
Effect of German Arms Imports on Bilateral Aid received from GermanyLevel of German Arms Imports 0.01** (2.36)UNSC Member 0.76** (2.13)Pariah state -1.79 (0.99)War -0.81 (1.37)ln(GDP per capita, real) -0.03 (0.02)Political regime 0.06 (0.86)U.S. Military Assistance (Const. 2011 dollars) 0.09** (2.31)Number of observations 1121R-squared 0.31
Conclusion
• Arms market: extremely competitive• Small impact, statistically significant• Causal logic reinforced by data
Future Work
• Expand control variables• Lagging data• Case studies• Deeper understanding of German government
and German lobbying practices