Bridging the gaps between AR and ARDChallenges and Opportunities
Alain VidalAKIS-ARCH Workshop, Brussels, 26-27 May 2014
Pho
to: A
. Vid
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CGIAR Centers developed high yielding varieties for staple cereals that were the engine of the Green Revolution
CGIAR: agricultural research for a food-secure future
CGIAR’s research is carried out by 16 Research Programs (CRPs), working in close collaboration with hundreds of partners worldwide
Bridging the gaps between AR and ARD3 examples
• Climate-Smart Agriculture Combining mitigation
and adaptation• The Wheat initiative• Ecological intensification
through healthier water, land and ecosystems
2013
Why is CSA important? – Adaptation
Global wheat and maize
yields: response to warming
2013
Why is CSA important? – Food SecurityMaíz
T-Max
T-MaxYield Yield
Arroz
Climate drives yield variation: our systems are sensitive to climate, not resilient to it
2013
Why is CSA important? – Mitigation
13
Agriculture-related activities are 19-29% of global
greenhouse gas emissions (2010)
Agriculture production (e.g., fertilizers, rice, livestock,
energy)
Land-use change and forestry including drained peatlands
Industrial processes Waste
Percent, 100% = 50 gigatonnes CO2e per year
Non-Ag Energy
70
11
4 2
2013
Why is CSA important? – Mitigation“Business as usual” (BAU) agriculture emissions would comprise >70% of allowable emissions to achieve a 2°C world
Gt CO2e per year
2010 2050 (Business as usual)
2050 (2°C target)
12 15
36
70
Non-agricultural emissions
Agricultural and land-use change emissions
>70%
48
85
21
CHINA Paying for ecosystem services
2.5 million farmers paid to set aside land and plant trees
Sequestered over 700,000 tonnes of carbon
2 million ha rehabilitated – reducing erosion
Increased yields
Climate-smart coffee-banana systems Microclimate: shading can reduce
temperature by >2° Celsius Shade biomass increases carbon
stock→ CC mitigation Shade plants increase revenue and
food security for smallholders
income up > 50%
Van Asten et al (2014)
What if… - we spread agroforestry across Africa?
Analysis based on WRI 2013
Approximate area suitable for Agroforestry in Africa:
~ 300 Million Ha140+ Million People below
$1.25 per day
What if… - we spread agroforestry across Africa?
PRO
DUCT
IVIT
Y Multiple benefits include: Reduced soil erosion Additional diversified
income from wood products
Strengthened drought resistance from increased water storage
RESI
LIEN
CE
FOO
TPRI
NT
+615 Calories per person/day for 140+ Million poor people
Average yield increase 50%
Savings of over6 Million tons of synthetic fertilizerAdoption on
150 Million HaAdoption on
300 Million Ha
+44 Million Tons
+88 Million Tons
Food Production
Carbon Sequestration
- 1 Gt of CO2eper year
- 2 Gt of CO2eper year
Adoption on150 Million Ha
Adoption on300 Million Ha
2 Gt Co2e storage per year corresponds to ~1/3 of Global Direct Ag Emissions
Significantly higher mitigation potential by further increasing tree density and in humid systems
Agroforestry can be combined with other practices such as water harvesting for additional impact.
Direct agricultural emissions are spread across regions and across production sectors
18
Source: FAOStat data from 2010 (accessed 2013); area of pie charts scaled to regional emissions.
“Ag soils” includes synthetic fertilizers, manure applied to crops, field application of crop residues, and nitrous oxide from cultivated organic soils.
Mitigation opportunities by country
19
Source: CEA analysis.
Mitigation opportunities are clustered primarily in the major agricultural economies.
12 million farmers & 40 different crops insured
INDIA Weather-based insurance
Reduces pressure to bring more land under cultivation
Reduces risks
Allows farmers to access fertilizer and better seed
Adaptations to deal with higher climate variability and climate risks
Towards more transformative change
• Better weather forecasts and climate information reaching farmers, governments, emergency relief
• Social safety nets to help vulnerable people recover from climate shocks
• Weather insurance in agriculture reaching more farmers
CSA Alliance: AR and ARD institutions united with International Organizations and NGOs
Minimum Goals for 2050
Environmental Goals Development Goals
Total Agricultural Production
Nutritionally Complete Production
Biodiversity Conserved
Carbon Sequestered Improved Water Quality
Water Conserved
Soil Formed
Food Security Goals
Food Distribution and Access
Conserve agrobiodiversity
Increased Farmer LivelihoodsAnd Resilience
Improve Human Health
Increase Farm Self Reliance
Adapted from Foley et al 2011
Production Goals
An agriculture that contributes to environmental protection rather than environmental degradation
N-S Partnerships for ecological intensification
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