Bridging the gaps between AR and ARDChallenges and Opportunities
Alain VidalAKIS-ARCH Workshop, Brussels, 26-27 May 2014
Photo
: A
. V
idal
CGIAR Centers developed high yielding varieties for staple cereals that were the engine of the Green Revolution
CGIAR: agricultural research for a food-secure future
CGIAR’s research is carried out by 16 Research Programs
(CRPs), working in close collaboration with hundreds of partners
worldwide
Bridging the gaps between AR and ARD3 examples
• Climate-Smart Agriculture
Combining mitigation and adaptation
• The Wheat initiative
• Ecological intensification through healthier water, land and ecosystems
2013
Why is CSA important? – Adaptation
Global wheat and maize
yields: response to warming
2013
Why is CSA important? – Food
SecurityMaíz
T-Max
T-Max
Yield Yield
Arroz
Climate drives
yield variation:
our systems are
sensitive to
climate, not
resilient to it
2013
Why is CSA important? – Mitigation
13
Agriculture-related activities are 19-29% of global
greenhouse gas emissions (2010)
Agriculture production (e.g., fertilizers, rice, livestock,
energy)
Land-use change and forestry including drained peatlands
Industrial processes
Waste
Percent, 100% = 50 gigatonnes CO2e per year
Non-Ag Energy
70
11
4 2
2013
Why is CSA important? – Mitigation
“Business as usual” (BAU) agriculture emissions would comprise >70% of allowable emissions to achieve a 2°C world
Gt CO2e per year
12 15
36
70
2010 2050(Business as usual)
2050(2°C target)
Non-agricultural
emissions
Agricultural and land-
use change
emissions
>70%
48
85
21
CHINA Paying for ecosystem services
2.5 million
farmers paid to
set aside land
and plant treesSequestered over
700,000 tonnes of carbon
2 million ha
rehabilitated
– reducing
erosion
Increased yields
Climate-smart coffee-banana systems Microclimate: shading can reduce
temperature by >2° Celsius
Shade biomass increases carbon stock→ CC mitigation
Shade plants increase revenue and food security for smallholders
income up > 50%
Van Asten et al (2014)
What if…
- we spread agroforestry across Africa?
Analysis based on WRI 2013
Approximate area suitable
for Agroforestry in Africa:
~ 300 Million Ha
140+ Million People below
$1.25 per day
What if… - we spread agroforestry across Africa?
PR
OD
UC
TIV
ITY Multiple benefits include:
Reduced soil erosion
Additional diversified income from wood products
Strengthened drought resistance from increased water storage
RES
ILIE
NC
E
FOO
TPR
INT
+615 Calories per person/day for 140+ Million poor people
Average yield increase 50%
Savings of over6 Million tons of synthetic fertilizerAdoption on
150 Million HaAdoption on
300 Million Ha
+44 Million Tons
+88 Million Tons
Food Production
Carbon Sequestration
- 1 Gt of CO2eper year
- 2 Gt of CO2eper year
Adoption on150 Million Ha
Adoption on300 Million Ha
2 Gt Co2e storage per year corresponds to ~1/3 of Global Direct Ag Emissions
Significantly higher mitigation potential by further increasing tree density and in humid systems
Agroforestry can be combined with other practices such as water harvesting for additional impact.
Direct agricultural emissions are spread across regions and across production sectors
18
Source: FAOStat data from 2010 (accessed 2013); area of pie charts scaled to regional emissions.
“Ag soils” includes synthetic fertilizers, manure
applied to crops, field application of crop
residues, and nitrous oxide from cultivated
organic soils.
Mitigation opportunities by country
19
Source: CEA analysis.
Mitigation opportunities are clustered primarily in the major agricultural economies.
12 million
farmers & 40
different crops
insured
INDIA Weather-based insurance
Reduces pressure
to bring more land
under cultivation
Reduces
risks
Allows farmers to
access fertilizer
and better seed
Adaptations to deal with higher climate variability and climate risks
Towards more transformative change
• Better weather forecasts and climate informationreaching farmers, governments, emergency relief
• Social safety nets to help vulnerable people recover from climate shocks
• Weather insurance in agriculture reaching more farmers
CSA Alliance: AR and ARD institutions unitedwith International Organizations and NGOs
Minimum Goals for 2050
Environmental Goals Development Goals
Total Agricultural Production
Nutritionally Complete Production
Biodiversity Conserved
Carbon Sequestered Improved Water Quality
Water Conserved
Soil Formed
Food Security Goals
Food Distribution and Access
Conserve agrobiodiversity
Increased Farmer LivelihoodsAnd Resilience
Improve Human Health
Increase Farm Self Reliance
Adapted from Foley et al 2011
Production Goals
An agriculture that contributes to environmentalprotection rather than environmental degradation
N-S Partnerships for ecological intensification
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