Transcript
Page 1: BRI Progress in Mongolia - UN ESCAP BRI progress.pdfCooperation Priorities of BRI in Mongolia Cooperation Priorities Activities Policy coordination China and Mongolia signed a cooperation

BRI Progress in Mongolia

Enkh-Amgalan Byambajav, National Consultant of Mongolia, UNDESA

Workshop on “Assessing the Potential Impact of the Belt and Road

Initiative on Sustainable Development Goals in Asian Economies”

Bangkok, Thailand

25-26 September 2019

Page 2: BRI Progress in Mongolia - UN ESCAP BRI progress.pdfCooperation Priorities of BRI in Mongolia Cooperation Priorities Activities Policy coordination China and Mongolia signed a cooperation

CONTENT

• Country profile: Mongolia

• BRI in Mongolia

• Conclusion

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Country profile: Mongolia

Population 3,238,479 (2019)

Capital Ulaanbaatar 1,444,700 (2019)

Area (km2) 1,561,100 (603.863 sq.mi)

Human Development Index 0.741 (92th) (2017)

GDP 13 billion USD (2018)

GDP per capita 4009 USD (2018)

Landlocked between China and Russia

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– Mongolia is a lower-middle-income country with a GDP of 13 billion USD (2018)

– In 2018, annual economic growth rate was 7.2 percent

– Average GDP growth rate between 1990-1999 is -0.4%

– Average GDP growth rate between 2000-2009 is 5.9%

– Average GDP growth rate between 2010-2018 is 7.9%

– The growth rate changes following the commodity prices in the world economy

because of its dependency from the mining sector.

– GDP per capita has increased 4.2 times between 2000-2009 from 450$ to 1882$

– GDP per capita has increased 1.6 times between 2010-2018 from 2488$ to 4009$

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Foreign trade in 2018

– Mongolia exports 7.0 billion USD and imports 5.9 billion USD with the balance of

1.1 billion USD.

– Mongolia exported goods to 74 countries and 96% of total exports went to China.

– The main types of exports come from mining and minerals, and agricultural

industry.

– Furthermore, 78.1% of the total imports are from Russia and China.

– Main import goods are food products, clothing, machinery, vehicles and fuel.

– Mongolia imports approximately 99% of its petroleum needs from Russia.

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The Belt and Road Initiative: Six Economic Corridors

– Source: New Delhi Times

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Background of BRI in Mongolia

September, 2014Dushanbe

23 June, 2016Tashkent

14-15 May, 2017Beijing

9 July, 2015Ufa

Source: Author ’s compiling from various sources

The first trilateral

meeting of Mongolian

President Ts.Elbegdorj,

Chinese President Xi

Jinping and Russian

President Vladimir Putin

Focus on economic

cooperation

The second trilateral

meeting of Mongolian

President Ts.Elbegdorj,

Chinese President Xi

Jinping and Russian

President Vladimir Putin

Meeting of Prime

minister J.Erdenebat,

Chinese President Xi

Jinping and Prime

minister Li Keqiang

Signed MOU on Formulating

Guidelines for Constructing

China-Mongolia-Russia

Economic Corridor /32 projects/

Figure 1: Major Political Events related to BRI in Mongolia

Signed the “Project Outline

for Constructing the China-

Mongolia-Russia

Economic Corridor”

The third trilateral

meeting of Mongolian

President Ts.Elbegdorj,

Chinese President Xi

Jinping and Russian

President Vladimir Putin

Attended first BRI forum,

Signed bilateral economic

cooperation documents

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Background of BRI in Mongolia (continue)

13 September, 2017Ulaanbaatar

24-28 April, 2019Beijing

14 June, 2019Bishkek

9-10 June, 2018Qingdao

Source: Author ’s compiling from various sources

Investment Research

Center established

under Ministry of Foreign

Affairs

The center is responsible for conducting research on technology, economic estimation, research on coordinating regulations of the three countries and so on.

The fourth trilateral

meeting of Mongolian

President Kh.Battulga,

Chinese President Xi

Jinping and Russian

President Vladimir Putin

Discussed to strengthening

and enrichment of Mongolia-

China-Russia comprehensive

strategic partnership

Figure 1: Major Political Events related to BRI in Mongolia

Meeting of Mongolian

President Kh.Battulga

Chinese President Xi

Jinping

Proposed to accelerate the

construction of a network of

cross-border highways, facilitate

customs clearance, strengthen

energy cooperation, and discuss

the construction of regional

power grids.

Attended second BRI forum,

Signed of bilateral

cooperation documents

including a plan to align the

BRI with the Development

Road program.

The fifth trilateral

meeting of Mongolian

President Kh.Battulga,

Chinese President Xi

Jinping and Russian

President Vladimir Putin

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Program of Mongolia-Russia-China Economic Corridor

– Projects under trilateral economic corridor:

• Transportation and infrastructure 13

• Railway 7

• Logistics 1

• Road 4

• Telecommunication 1

• Industrial sector 2

• Development of border- crossing points 1

• Energy sector 1

• Facilitation of trade and inspection procedures 4

• Environment and ecology 3

• Education, science and technology cooperation 3

• Humanitarian 3

• Agriculture 1

• Medical science 1

– Total 32

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Railway transit corridor

– Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs

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Road transit corridor

– Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs

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– Source: Kumagai Satoru, Gokan Toshitaka, Keola Souknilanh “Economic impacts of economic corridors in Mongolia : an application of IDE-GSM” IDE-JETRO 2018

Table 1: Economic Impact of Corridor (2030, against baseline, million USD)

Simulated by IDE-GSM model

Agriculture Automotive E&E Textile Food Proc. Oth. Mfg. Services Mining Total

Mongolia -0.7 0 0.2 0.5 6 -0.1 8.8 1.7 16.5

China 0.1 18.1 21.1 15.8 51.1 56.5 1198.6 -2.1 1359.2

Russia 0 0.9 15.9 0.5 5.7 -1.4 8.5 3.5 33.6

Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Economic Corridor 4a

Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Economic Corridor 4b

Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Economic Corridor 4c

Agriculture Automotive E&E Textile Food Proc. Oth. Mfg. Services Mining Total

Mongolia -1.2 0.1 0.2 13.9 43.7 19.2 125 79.7 280.7

China -13.7 1307 -122.4 1416.4 839.5 -893.2 -83.9 412.3 2862

Russia -0.2 45.7 16.3 12.1 172.1 116 -4.6 96.9 454.4

Agriculture Automotive E&E Textile Food Proc. Oth. Mfg. Services Mining Total

Mongolia -0.3 0 0 1.8 9.6 1.2 25.7 9.9 47.8

China 0.1 2.3 9 19.3 40 61.6 385 14.7 532

Russia 0 0 1.1 0 -0.2 1.1 5.5 1.6 9.1

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– Source: Bank of Mongolia

4.9

20.7

23.6

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

China Total investment China to total ratio

Foreign Direct Investment Position of Mongolia

(bln.usd percent)

3.24

29.5

11.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

-

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

China total debt Total debt China total debt ratio

Gross External Debt of Mongolia

(bln.usd, percent)

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Chinese Foreign Direct Investment to

Mongolia by economic sector

– Source: Ministry of Finance

FDI inward flow from China

reached 4.9 billion USD,

which was 23.6% of total

investment in 2018. (close

to Lao PDR, 23%).

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Cooperation Priorities of BRI in Mongolia

Cooperation Priorities Activities

Policy coordinationChina and Mongolia signed a cooperation plan to promote the alignment of the China-

proposed Belt and Road initiative (BRI) with Development Road of Mongolia.

Facilities Connectivity

Three priority projects: 1) Central railway corridor,

2) Central Highway corridor

3) Energy sector (electricity transmission line)

Unimpeded Trade

Logistic 1, Telecommunication 1, Development of border- crossing points 1,

Facilitation of trade and inspection procedures-4 projects will be implemented to facilitate

trade

Financial IntegrationAsian Infrastructure Investment Bank, BRICS new development bank, SCO Interbank

Consortium, Silk road fund, Export Import bank of China

People to People Bond

- There are 6,268 students studying in China, of which 358 are through the agreement

between the Governments in 2018.

- The number of Chinese tourists increased by 8.5 and 15.1 percent respectively in 2017

and 2018, while tourists to China increased by 2.7 and 43.2 percent.

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National Working Group to Implement

Mongolia-Russia-China Economic corridor

National Working group headed by Vice Minister for Ministry of Foreign Affairs was

established by Prime Minister’s decree No133 of May 2017, which consists of 20 experts

representing all ministries related the economic corridor.

Since the establishment in 2017, National Working Group has held 5 meetings and

discussed Mongolia’s policy and position towards the Central Railway Corridor and

Central Road Corridor priority projects within the Economic Corridor Program, also

exchanged views on determination of feasible trilateral projects on electrical gird

renovation and measures to be taken until the trilateral meeting.

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Supporting activities to BRI in Mongolia

– Non-refundable aid of 2

billion yuan granted by the

Chinese government, is

going to be spent on ger

area re-planning and

rental apartment projects

in between 2018-2020 to

reduce air pollution.

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Supporting activities to BRI in Mongolia

– The Mongolian and Chinese sides negotiated the general agreement on

the soft loan amounting 1 billion USD, which has a payback period of 20

years.

– Following projects will be implemented with the soft loan :

- Constructing electric power transmission line and sub-station between

Ulaanbaatar and Mandalgobi’

- Reconstruction of Erdenet thermal power plant

- Construction of new wastewater treatment plant

Page 19: BRI Progress in Mongolia - UN ESCAP BRI progress.pdfCooperation Priorities of BRI in Mongolia Cooperation Priorities Activities Policy coordination China and Mongolia signed a cooperation

Supporting activities to BRI in Mongolia

- Construction of 20.9km road from Gachuurt intersection to Nalaikh-Choir

intersection

- Construction of meat-processing plant and quarantine facility

- Project on developing area of Tuul and Selbe rivers

- Project on setting surveillance cameras in streets of Ulaanbaatar city and

aimag centers

- Project on building tunnel

- Project on improving access, quality and control of communication sector

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4 OBJECTIVES OF

GOVERNANCE FOR

SUSTAINABLE

DEVELOPMENT

12 OBJECTIVES OF

SUSTAINABLE SOCIAL

DEVELOPMENT

6 OBJECTIVES OF

ENVIRONMENTAL

SUSTAINABILITY

GREEN DEVELOPMENT

POLICY OF MONGOLIAOBJECTIVE 1

GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE

DEVELOPMENT GOALS

2030

OBJECTIVE 2 OBJECTIVE 3 OBJECTIVE 4 OBJECTIVE 5 OBJECTIVE 6

MONGOLIA SUSTAINABLE

DEVELOPMENT VISION

2030

22 OBJECTIVES OF

SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC

DEVELOPMENT

Source: ESCAP

Linkages between policy and SDG in Mongolia

Page 21: BRI Progress in Mongolia - UN ESCAP BRI progress.pdfCooperation Priorities of BRI in Mongolia Cooperation Priorities Activities Policy coordination China and Mongolia signed a cooperation

Conclusion

• Evaluating the Socio-Economic Impact of Investment related to BRI in

Mongolia

• Speed up BRI implementation

- Legal environment

- Feasibility study

• Need to study BRI activities to support SDG and Sustainable

development vision of Mongolia

Page 22: BRI Progress in Mongolia - UN ESCAP BRI progress.pdfCooperation Priorities of BRI in Mongolia Cooperation Priorities Activities Policy coordination China and Mongolia signed a cooperation

Thank you for attention


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