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Bradley NickellDirector of Transmission Planning
Planning for Renewables
Iowa State University WESEP-REUJune 12, 2012
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About WECC
Non-Planning Functions
• Compliance Monitoring and Enforcement
• Standards Development• Reliability Coordination• Market-Operations
interface• Operator training• WREGIS
Planning Functions
• Loads and Resources Assessments
• Reliability studies• Transmission Expansion
Planning
WECC’s mission is to promote and foster a reliable and efficient bulk electric system
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• Planning cooperation among Western Interconnection entitiesoCreate economic planning data setso Perform interconnection-wide transmission
expansion studieso Process consistent with applicable FERC Order
890 planning principles
• Governed by the WECC Transmission Expansion Planning Policy Committee (TEPPC)
Regional Transmission Expansion PlanningHistory of Interconnection-wide planning in the West
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• What are we planning for?
• Resource Planning
• Modeling Renewable Resources
• Telling the story
Agenda
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What are we planning for?
• Identification of future infrastructure needs to 1. Serve the expected load reliably
2. Meet public policy directives
3. Minimize cost and environmental impact
• Transmission planning – identify future transmission capacity needs given a future set of loads and resources– It’s all about resource planning
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• 10-year – understanding impacts of near-term decisions (bottoms-up)
• 20-year – understanding drivers of potential energy futures (top-down)
• The Plans tell the story of how they are connected
2013 10- and 20-year Transmission PlansConnecting the Dots
2012
2022
2032
How might the Western Interconnection need to change to accommodate changes in the supply and demand for electric energy?
Understanding Impacts of decisions, not making determinations on what should
be done
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Transmission Expansion Planning Process
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2022 TEPPC Common Case – Resource Assumptions
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1. Gather load assumptions
2. Identify state renewable energy requirements
3. Specify the renewable portfolio
4. Update conventional resources
5. Identify conventional resource retirements
6. Check the load and resource balance
Developing Resource Assumptions
RPS Policies
Renewable portfolio standard
Renewable portfolio goal
www.dsireusa.org / May 2012
Solar water heating eligible *† Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables
Includes non-renewable alternative resources
WA: 15% x 2020*
CA: 33% x 2020
NV: 25% x 2025*
AZ: 15% x 2025
NM: 20% x 2020 (IOUs) 10% x 2020 (co-ops)
HI: 40% x 2030
Minimum solar or customer-sited requirement
TX: 5,880 MW x 2015
UT: 20% by 2025*
CO: 30% by 2020 (IOUs)10% by 2020 (co-ops & large
munis)*
MT: 15% x 2015
ND: 10% x 2015
SD: 10% x 2015
IA: 105 MW
MN: 25% x 2025(Xcel: 30% x 2020)
MO: 15% x 2021
WI: Varies by utility;
~10% x 2015 statewide
MI: 10% & 1,100 MW x 2015*
OH: 25% x 2025†
ME: 30% x 2000New RE: 10% x 2017
NH: 23.8% x 2025
MA: 22.1% x 2020 New RE: 15% x 2020
(+1% annually thereafter)
RI: 16% x 2020
CT: 27% x 2020NY: 29% x 2015
NJ: 20.38% RE x 2021+ 5,316 GWh solar x
2026
PA: ~18% x 2021†
MD: 20% x 2022
DE: 25% x 2026*
DC: 20% x 2020
NC: 12.5% x 2021 (IOUs)10% x 2018 (co-ops & munis)
VT: (1) RE meets any increase in retail sales x
2012; (2) 20% RE & CHP x 2017
KS: 20% x 2020
OR: 25% x 2025 (large utilities)*
5% - 10% x 2025 (smaller utilities)
IL: 25% x 2025
29 states + DC and PR have an RPS
(8 states have goals)
29 states + DC and PR have an RPS
(8 states have goals)
OK: 15% x 2015
PR: 20% x 2035
WV: 25% x 2025*†VA: 15% x 2025*
DC
IN: 10% x 2025†
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Overarching RPS Assumptions
• RPS percentages with a discrete jump (e.g., 15% to 20%) are pro rated using a linear path– Utah sets a 2025 target without interim requirements
o Linear path sets target at 16% in 2022
• Set-asides are met– Distributed generation (AZ: 30% of RPS, CO: 3% of
retail sales, NM: 3% of RPS)– Solar (NV: 1.32% of retail sales, NM: 4% of sales)
• Credits are applied to applicable resources– CO grants 125% credit to instate generation– Multipliers (CO: community based projects, NV: solar
PV, WA: distributed generation)12
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WECC 2022 Common Case Portfolio
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Production Cost Modeling
• WECC’s studies are run using Promod, which is a production costing model (PCM) for projecting future system operating costs
• WECC inputs into the PCM a transmission network, using a WECC power flow base case, and a single resource scenario
• the PCM uses these model inputs to perform a security constrained economic dispatch of the WECC-wide system for each of 8,760 hours in the year
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• PCM uses the following inputs to perform a security constrained economic dispatch of the WECC-wide system for each hour of the year:o Generator Unit Characteristics: unit types, heat rates,
fuel types, forced outage rates, minimum downtimes, etc.
o Load Characteristics: chronological load shapes, etc.o Transmission Network Characteristics: network
topology, branch/transformer impedances, flow limits, etc.
o System Operating Requirements: operating reserve requirements, etc.
Production Cost Modeling
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PCM Modeling Inputs forVariable (Wind and Solar) Generation
• Wind/solar are fixed shape (non-dispatchable) resources– NREL meso-scale data– Hourly generation profiles have been defined for all
wind/solar plants in our dataset
• Result: Wind and solar generation does not vary unless there is local transmission congestion preventing the resources from being used by the system
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• Synchronized hourly profiles (wind & solar)
• Planned VG additions based on extensive data research and stakeholder input
• Energy is must-take
Wind and Solar Profile Examples
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Reference Case Wind Generation
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Average Hourly Wind by Month - PC1
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February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
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Annual
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Sample Load/Generation Profile – AZNMNV Sub-region
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7/10/2020 7/11/2020 7/12/2020 7/13/2020 7/14/2020 7/15/2020 7/16/2020 7/17/2020 7/18/2020 7/19/2020
Combustion Turbine
Steam - Other
Combined Cycle
Other
Solar
Wind
Small Hydro RPS
Geothermal
Biomass RPS
Hydro+PS
Steam - Coal
Nuclear
Demand
Dump
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Sample Load/Generation Profile – NWPP Sub-region
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Combustion Turbine
Steam - Other
Combined Cycle
Other
Solar
Wind
Small Hydro RPS
Geothermal
Biomass RPS
Hydro+PS
Steam - Coal
Nuclear
Demand
Dump
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10-Year Regional Transmission Plan
www.wecc.biz/10yrPlan
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What’s in a PlanTypes of Recommendations?
Expected Future – “The road we’re on”• Analysis of assumptions• Is there sufficient transmission capacity?• Unanswered questionsIdentification of Alternatives• Alternative procurement options to meet policy
directives at less costOther Insights• Identification of follow-up studies• Suggestions for addressing unanswered questions• Public policy
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Questions
Bradley NickellDirector of Transmission PlanningWestern Electricity Coordinating Council155 North 400 WestSalt Lake City, Utah [email protected]
All information on the WECC 10-Year Regional Transmission Plan may be found at http://www.wecc.biz/10yrPlan.
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• E3 and NREL developed calculation methodology Reserve based on 10 minute wind and solar profiles
• Provides an uncertainty factor extended to hourly analysis
• E3 calculated the hourly flexibility reserves for the TEPPC wind and solar profiles
Flexibility Reserves
Confidential | ©2012 Ventyx, an ABB company | 25
“Additional reserves required to manage the variability and uncertainty associated with variable generation resources like wind and solar”
(NREL)
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Flexibility Reserve Flow Diagram
Confidential | ©2012 Ventyx, an ABB company | 26
Historical load, wind and solar data
Statistical analysis
Equations that predict next period variability based on current values
of load, wind and solar
Hourly analysis data for study or real-time
(Load, Wind and Solar)
Hourly reserve time series synchronized to load, wind and
solar
Production Cost Modeling PROMOD, GridView, etc.
Production modeling results analysis
Definition of flex reserve sharing areas (e.g. EIM)
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Composite Hourly Reserve Requirement
Confidential | ©2012 Ventyx, an ABB company | 27
1-dayRe
serv
e r
eq
uire
me
nt
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Test Results for August 25 - 26
Confidential | ©2012 Ventyx, an ABB company | 28
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August 25-26 California South Sub-regionTotal Gen Reserve Contribution Hourly Reserve Requirement
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Example of Hourly Reserve Requirement
Confidential | ©2012 Ventyx, an ABB company | 29
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California South - August 25-26 (MW){Load is plotted on secondary axis}
4% of Daily Peak Flex Reserve Solar+Wind Hourly Res Load (Axis 2)
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The LTPT is a GIS-based capital expansion planning tool for use in doing long-term transmission planning studies
• Optimizes new generation and transmission build out• Incorporates reliability, policy, environmental, and cost
considerationsCurrent Status• Integrated testing continues• Last minute data submittals being incorporated into the
model• Will begin production studies in June
Long-term Planning Tool
Information from the LTPT complements results provided by the production cost model
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LTPT Process Flow
Criteria Data
Assertions
Environmental Considerations
Policy Consideration
Social Considerations
Cultural Considerations
Federal & State Mandates
Load
Generation
Transmission
Capital Costs
Geospatial
Stakeholder Collaboration
Optimize Generation
Operating Characteristics
Energy Constraints
Capacity Constraints
Tiered Optimization
Optimize Transmission
Alternative Candidates
Alternative Candidates
GridConstraints
Capital Costs
Capital Costs
ExpansionPlan
AnalyticsIdentify High
Value Projects
Measure Impacts
Compare Energy Futures
Screen Alternatives
Inform Other Planning
Inform Decision Makers
Public policy along with reliability, technology, and environmental considerations drive the LTPT
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LTPT Renewable Resource HubsLeveraging the WREZ Hubs
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Water Availability and UsageWater Availability Example
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• Develop and incorporate information on land, wildlife, cultural, historical, archaeological, and water resources into the transmission planning process
Environmental DataBringing land-use into planning processes
Data being integrated into the LTPT
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Detailed Examination of Expansion Alternatives - “Bending the Lines”
Optimal Cross-Country CorridorOptimal Corridor Using ROW and Road Alignments
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RTEP Long-term Planning Scenarios
The Long-term Planning Tool will be used to analyze the long-term scenarios
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Technology