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© BP 2008

BP Statistical Reviewof World EnergyJune 2008

June 2008

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008© BP 2008

Outline

Introduction

High Energy Prices

The Oil Market

Other Fuels

Conclusion


Energy Consumption and Energy Prices

y-o-y

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

98 00 02 04 06 080

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

$/bbl

Oil Gas Coal

98 00 02 04 06 080

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

98 00 02 04 06 080

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

$/t$/Mmbtu


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

Oil Wheat Iron & Steel Index: average 1970-2007 = 100

Real Commodity Prices


GDP and Primary Energy Growth

2001 2003 2005 2007

Primary energy GDP (PPP)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

1967 1969 1971 1973

Growth1970s 2000s


Contributions to Growth

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

1991 1995 1999 2003 2007

OECD Non-OECD

5-year moving average

1991 1995 1999 2003 2007

OECD Non-OECD

Primary energyGDP


Energy Growth Relative to GDP Growth

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

10-year average

OECD Non-OECD

Ratio of energy : GDP growth


Real and Nominal Crude Oil Price

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

Nominal price Real price$/bbl

$ 104.91 per barrel in December 1979

$ 130.92 per barrel in June 2008


-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-082.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

4.00

$/gallonKb/d

Pump price (rhs)

US Gasoline Consumption Growth

Source: EIA


-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Oilexporters

Non-OECDoil

importers

OECD oilimporters

Heavysubsidies

Moderatesubsidies

Moderatetaxes

Heavytaxes

10-year average

Taxes and subsidies

Global Oil Consumption Growth

Kb/d

Exporters and importers


2300

2400

2500

2600

2700

2800

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2002-2006 range Stocks in 2007 Brent oil price (rhs)

50

60

70

80

90

100

Mbbls $/bbl

OECD Commercial Inventories

Sources: IEA, Platts


World Oil Production Changes

OECD

OPEC-10

Other OPEC

FSU

ROW

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Growth Decline

Mb/d

OECD

OPEC-10

Other OPEC

FSUROW

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Growth Decline

Mb/d

Average annual change, 2003-2007 Change 2007


Non-OPEC

FSU

OPEC

2007 Oil Production: Largest Changes

Kb/dDecrease Increase

Norway

Mexico

Venezuela

Nigeria

Canada

Sudan

Iraq

Russia

Azerbaijan

Angola

Saudi Arabia

-500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400


Russian Oil Production

Source: Russian Ministry of Industry and Energy

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2001 2003 2005 2007

y-o-y growth

2005 2006 2007 2008

9.2

9.4

9.6

9.8

10.0

Mb/d


2007 Refining Capacity Additions

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

World Av. 2002-2005

World 2007

N.America

S. & Cent. America

Europe & Eurasia

Middle East

Africa

China

Asia Pacific ex China

Kb/d


-300

-225

-150

-75

0

75

150

Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08

Financial Investment in Energy

30

60

90

120

150

180


WTI

Heating Oil

Henry Hub

Non-commercial net length

$/boe

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


Open interest Energy prices

‘000 contracts Million contracts

Sources: CFTC, Platts


-10 0 10 20 30 40

US

China

Qatar

Nigeria

Turkmenistan

Azerbaijan

Russia

Canada

UK

Billion m3

2007 Natural Gas: Largest Changes

Production Consumption

Billion m3

-10 0 10 20 30 40

US

China

Russia

Japan

Turkey

Chile

Germany


0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Algeria

Trinidad

Egypt

Nigeria

Qatar

Oman

Australia

Malaysia

UAE

Eq. Guinea

Indonesia

Norway

Brunei

2007 LNG Market Diversification

Source: Cedigaz

Number of export markets Number of suppliers

Atlantic BasinMiddle EastPacific Basin

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Japan

outh Korea

Taiwan

Spain

India

US

France

Turkey

UK

China

Mexico

Belgium

Greece

S


20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

-60 -40 -20 0 2075%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

-6 -3 0 3 6

Gas competitiveness vs. resid ($/Mmbtu)

Gas Share US gas vs. oilUK gas vs. coal

Gas is not competitiveGas is

competitive Gas is not competitiveGas is

competitive

Fuel Switching in Power Generation 2005-07

Gas competitiveness vs. coal (€/MWh)

Sources: EIA, BERR, Platts, McCloskey, ECX


17%60%

3%

1%

19%

2007 Coal Production and Consumption

20%

2%

5%

14%59%Europe& Eurasia

Consumption

S & Cent.America

Africa

North AmericaAsia Pacific

Europe& Eurasia

Production

S & Cent. America

Africa

North AmericaAsia Pacific


Coal Production Outside China

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

US

Australia

India

South Africa

Russia

Indonesia

Mtoe

Biggest coal producers Largest production growth, 1998-2007

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Indonesia

Australia

IndiaRussia

South Africa

Colombia

Mtoe

12.3%

3.8%

3.7%

3.1%

2% 8.3%

Average annual growth


GDP and Power Generation

Average growth p.a.

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%GDP PowerPrimary energy Coal

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

GDP Power Coal

Share

China

OECD

Othernon-

OECD

India

Global breakdownGrowth in China, 2003-2007


Power Generation and Primary Energy

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

1991-2000 2001-2007

OECD Non-OECD

Average growth p.a.Power generation

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

PowerGeneration

PrimaryEnergy

GDP

10-year average

2007 global growth


-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

World Europe FSU NorthAmerica

MiddleEast

S. &Cent.

America

Africa AsiaPacific

10-year averagey-o-y growth

2007 Carbon Emissions Growth


0

400

800

1200

1600

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

Middle East S. & Cent. America Europe & Eurasia Africa North America Asia Pacific Other oil sands

Billion bbls

Global Oil Reserves


-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007

10-year average

Changes in Nuclear and Hydroelectric Output

Nuclear Hydroy-o-y growth


Renewables

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2001 2003 2005 2007

HydroOther renewables

TWh

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2001 2003 2005 2007

0

100

200

300

400

500

Share (lhs)

Kb/dShare

Ethanolconsumption (rhs)

Electricity generation in Germany Volume of ethanol in US gasoline

Sources: BDEW, EIA


Conclusion

High economic growth and improvements in energy intensity

Importance of developing world

Oil market constrained, gas market integrating, global coal market emerging

Prices are effective, where allowed to work

© BP 2008

BP Statistical Reviewof World EnergyJune 2008

June 2008