Big Data The end of Optimisation
John Poppelaars Vesting Conference 2014
Big Data Analytics produces uncanny
accurate predictions
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2012/02/16/how-target-figured-out-a-teen-girl-was-pregnant-before-her-father-did/
Big Data correlations tell us what we need to know
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v457/n7232/full/nature07634.html
No need to sample, when we have all data
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-18367213
“All models are wrong, and increasingly you can succeed without them”
Peter Norvig, Google
http://archive.wired.com/science/discoveries/magazine/16-07/pb_theory
Accurate predictions
Correlations suffice
No samples
No models
The Big Data Promise
90% of the data stored today did not exist two
years ago
Generally speaking there
are two types of data
Growing up to unlock the Big Data potential
Framing Data gathering &
Analyses Modelling & Calibration
Scenarios & Sensitivity
analysis
Communication &
Implementation
Analytics is not just a tool, it requires skill ,
competency & experience
What I learned in class, there is always an error
http://suicideandsappiness.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/cartoon-6.png
How many Type I Errors does Target make?
Are Correlations all that matter?
Many more examples
Caution Correlation ≠ Causality
Indeed, correlations
are not enough
http://www.nature.com/news/when-google-got-flu-wrong-1.12413 http://www.sciencemag.org/content/343/6176/1203/F2.large.jpg
Do all observations tell the whole story?
Big Data implies N=All, but often is
a seductive illusion
http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2014/03/22/starts-stops/z04CiSdSdwbACUYqnvTPSL/story.html/
“ĉiuj modeloj estas erara sed iuj estas utilaj”
George Box
From
Data-rich
to
Decision-smart
The future is bright, it’s full of data
[email protected] @ORatWork http://nl.linkedin.com/in/johnpoppelaars www.john-poppelaars.blogspot.nl
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