BCI Horizon Scan 2016 Results
Patrick Alcantara DBCI
Senior Research Associate
Business Continuity Institute (BCI)
Ian Farrer MBCI
Director, Business Risk & Resilience
Pearson
Identify near-term threats
on the radar of BC practitioners worldwide
Benchmark horizon scanning activity
Look out for trends that may influence
businesses in the medium- and long-term
Today’s agenda
The headlines
• Cyber attacks (85%) remain the top threat practitioners are concerned
about. However, concerns over physical incidents rise significantly this year
with acts of terrorism and security incidents at fourth and fifth respectively.
• The use of the Internet for malicious attacks (83%), growing influence of
social media (63%) and the loss of a key employee (56%) are the top three
trends.
• A slight increase in organizations reporting greater BC investment is
reported (23% to 24%). A majority of organizations report ISO 22301 as a
framework for BCM implementation (51%).
About the BCI Horizon Scan 2015 Survey
568 74organizations countries
Top threats to businesses worldwide
1. Cyber attack (85%)
2. Data breach (80%)
3. Unplanned IT & telecom outages (77%)
4. Acts of terrorism (55%)
5. Security incident (55%)
* Ranking was based on number of respondents answering
‘extremely concerned’ or ‘concerned’ to a threat
Tracking threats
• Respondents ‘extremely
concerned’ about this
threat materialising rise
from 43% to 48%
#1
Cyber threats
(unchanged at 1st)
Tracking threats
• Concern over this threat
rises from 74% to 80% this
year
• Recent cases like TalkTalk’s
show how data breaches
can also cause reputational
damage
Data breach
(3rd to 2nd)
1
Tracking threats
• Drops from second (81%) to
third (77%) this year
• In second place in Asia,
MENA regions
• Top threat for healthcare
and education sectors
Unplanned IT and
telecom outages
(2nd to 3rd)
1
Tracking threats
• One of the biggest gainers
in this year’s survey
• Coincides with greater
concern over physical
security threats
Acts of terrorism
(10th to 4th)
6
Tracking threats
• Practitioners who are
‘extremely concerned’
about vandalism or theft
rises from 12% to 17%
1
Security incidents
(6th to 5th)
Tracking threats
• Appears in the top 10 for
the first time since the
survey began
5
Availability of key
talents or skills
(14th to 9th)
Tracking threats
• Almost three-quarters of
organizations (74%) report
at least 1 disruption/year*
• 14% claim losses of at least
€1 million*
2
Supply chain disruption
(5th to 7th)*BCI Supply Chain Resilience Report 2015
Tracking threats
5
Human illness
(8th to 13th)
1
Fire
(10th to 11th)
Top 5 trends
Trends ranked 6th to 10th
6. Potential emergence of global pandemic (48%)
7. Increasing supply chain complexity (47%)
8. Political change (42%)
9. Changing consumer attitudes and behaviour (36%)
10.Energy security/climate change/social unrest (29%)
Further analysis
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Growing potential for social unrest (1st)
• Central and Latin America (CALA): Political change (1st)
• Middle East & North Africa (MENA): Loss of key employee
(1st)
• Asia: Potential emergence of a global pandemic (2nd)
Further analysis
• Manufacturing: Increasing supply chain complexity (1st)
• Health and social care: Emergence of a global pandemic
(1st)
• Finance and IT/telecommunications: New regulations and
increased regulatory scrutiny (3rd)
• Education: Political change (3rd)
Conducting trend analysis
70% of organisations conduct trend analysis to better
understand threats, a slight decline from 73% last year.
Use of trend analysis in informing BCM
A third (33%) DO NOT use trend analysis to guide
BCM programmes, a figure unchanged from last year’s.
Level of BC investment
There is a slight increase in organizations reporting
more investments in BC (23% to 24%).
Use of ISO 22301 in BCM implementation
A majority of organizations report using ISO 22301
as a framework for BCM implementation.
Key takeaways
• Cyber issues continue to dominate the threat landscape
although physical security incidents are seen as a growing
concern for many professionals.
Key takeaways
• The ‘human factor’ (i.e. skills shortage, loss of key
employees) clearly impacts on business performance and
requires a strategic response.
Key takeaways
• Access to important data (e.g. trend analysis results)
remains a barrier for many organizations which impairs
resilience. This strengthens the case for breaking down silos
and encouraging engagement among management
disciplines which build overall resilience.
011 8372 3079
http://uk.linkedin.com/in/patrickalcantara/en
Patrick Alcantara DBCI
020 7010 2466
https://uk.linkedin.com/in/ian-farrer-acma-mba-llm-7946a513
Ian Farrer MBCI
019 0881 4945
https://uk.linkedin.com/in/carla-whyte-60018025
Carla Whyte
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