REVISITING THAILAND’S SA AUTOMOTIVE LESSONS Prof. Justin Barnes
Chairman, B&M Analysts
Chair of Industrial Studies, UKZN
7th August 2013
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Presentation outline
• Contextualising the Thailand automotive industry’s recent growth
• Overview of study tour to Thailand
• Development lessons: • World Class Manufacturing standards
• Benefits of volume associated specialisation
• Labour market flexibility, and associated wage model
• An innovation master plan?
• Lessons for the South African automotive industry?
Thai auto industry in context
Thailand South Africa
GDP USD 366 bn USD 384 bn
Population 67 m 52 m
Vehicle sales (2012)
1.4m 0.6m
Vehicle production
2.4m 0.5m
OEMs (>100k) 9 2
T1 suppliers 690 +/- 150
Thai auto industry in context
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Un
its
(Th
ou
san
ds)
Thailand Automotive Industry Growth
Total Production
Domestic Sales
Export
2012 = 2.45m produced 2013 = 2.8m target (1.6m local)
Thai auto industry in context
Source: Thai Automotive Institute. (2012)."Vision 2011". Thailand Automotive Institute. Presentation.
Area covers size of DAC membership!
Thai auto industry in context
Source: Board of investment. (2013). [Online] Available: www.boi.go.th.
Overview of study tour to Thailand
• Objectives: Deepen understanding of Thai competitive advantage
(previous study findings) Unpack position of Thai as source of component and
CBU exports
• Itinerary Mon, 27
May
Meeting - Prof. Kriengkrai Techakanont, Department of
Economics, Thammasat University
Tue, 28
May
Academic seminar and meetings – Department of Economics,
Thammasat University
Wed, 29
May
Site visit 1 – Large pressings and plastic injection mouldings
Site visit 2 - OEM
Site visit 3 – Harness supplier
Thu, 30
May
Site visit 3 – OEM
Fri, 31
May
Site visit 4 – Lighting supplier
DL #1: WCM standards
• Plants visited and interviews conducted indicate Thai OEMs and suppliers have variable capital equipment profiles, and adherence to WCM standards
• On the whole, variation was not substantially different from the level of variation observed amongst SA firms, e.g. • Inventory: 5 to 60 days • Outbound ppm of 24 vs. 21,800 ppm inbound • Attendance: 93% to 97.5% • C/O times on presses: 5 mins to 1 hr.
• But, an incremental advantage may exist for Thai suppliers in respect of WCM standards due to their lower input costs (e.g. labour costs are lower and high levels of operator idle time would therefore be less costly)
DL #2: Volume associated specialisation • Localisation activities frequently linked to the vertical
integration of firms (but not exclusively so) rather than the presence of base raw materials (steel and polymer largely imported). Localisation of processes is enabled by the scale of demand
• Scale of operations was substantially greater than that of SA firms at all levels of the value chain: Single OEM production sites enjoy greater scale, and this is
complimented by sister production sites within close proximity Additional volume is secured via CKD production activity on
selected processes/products Tier 1 suppliers benefit from scale derived from full scale assembly
plants, multiple assemble plants and CKD production activity
• In some instances production scale seems to have underpinned the Thai firms’ ability to position themselves as regional/global centres of excellence for products, suggesting this is a major source of Thai advantage
• Also, no 470.03 equivalent - localisation critical for exports
DL #3: Labour market flexibility • Operator base wage for OEMs and suppliers is THB1,750
pw, although actual cost to employers is 2X-3X base. Cost of labour is therefore higher than basic wage rate cited
• But, huge competitive advantage is secured by how the labour market functions to enable firms to recover overhead costs and manage demand variances Firms have 2X shifts per day, but typically operate 24
hrs. per day 5-6 days per week by being able to extend each shift 2.5 hrs.
Notification of overtime is required at start of relevant shift (max of 12 hrs. per day and 72 hrs. per week)
Any hours worked above 42.5 in week results in 50% wage premium
Meals during shift and transport to/from site are provided to employees
Bonus of 30-70% of annual basic wage paid in 2012 – based on company performance
Limited contract labour due to flexibility – improved QA
Thailand labour costs
Base hr. rate* Hrs. worked Daily wage Weekly wage
Base THB 41.20 8.5 THB 350 THB 1 751
Overtime THB 61.80 2.5 THB 155 THB 773
Total 11 THB 505 THB 2 524
Annual wage
CTC Annual bonus
Total CTC Annual
Rand cost
Base THB 91 052 THB 118 368 THB 45 526 THB 163 894 R 49 168
Overtime THB 40 170 THB 40 170 THB 0 THB 40 170 R 12 051
Total THB 131 222 THB 170 589 THB 0 THB 170 589 R 61 219
Previous: SA = R142k, Thailand = R34k
* Assuming ½ day shift @ THB 300, and ½ night shift @ THB 400
DL #4: Innovation master plan?
Innovation Product Process
Paradigm
Position Source: Bessant, J. (2013)
Incremental… to disruptive…
How interlinked?
Lessons for South Africa • How to realise scale economies? SA vs.
Thailand or SSA vs. ASEAN?
• How to create an operating model that is aligned with market demand variances, and that reduces operating risk?
• How far does driving WCM as the only source of sustainable competitive advantage take us?
• Linking the 4-Ps into a virtuous cycle (process, product, position, and paradigm challenges)?