BangladeshAssessment of Food Security and Nutrition Situation
Akhter AhmedIFPRI Representative in Bangladesh
Roundtable Discussion5 May 2016 | Dhaka
Bangladesh Roundtable Discussion, May 2016
Progress in reducing hunger, but more to be done
• Progress in 4 GHI components:
• Undernourishment fell from 32% to 16% (1990-2015)
– Number of hungry people fell from 36 to 26 million in same period
• Child wasting fell from 18% to 14%(1992-2014)
• Child stunting fell from 63% to 36% (1992-2014)
• Under-five mortality fell from 14% to 4% (1992-2014)
Global Hunger Index Score: Bangladesh
Source: 2015 GHI Report2
5250
39
3127
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
GHI 1990 GHI 1995 GHI 2000 GHI 2005 GHI 2015
Bangladesh Roundtable Discussion, May 2016
2015 Global Hunger Index by severity (selected countries): Despite progress, Bangladesh is in the “serious” category
5.17.3 8.6
11.913.5
15.5
27.329.0
33.937.3
41.1
46.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
GHI
scor
e
Low <10 Moderate 10.0 - 19.9 Serious 20.0 - 34.9 Alarming 35.0 - 49.9
Source: 2015 GHI Report 3
Bangladesh Roundtable Discussion, May 2016
Poverty persists despite strong economic growth
• Lower-middle income country with strong GDP growth
– 6.3% average growth from 2005-2015
• Poverty greatly reduced, but 31.5% live below national poverty line (2010)
• Majority of poor live in rural areas, where poverty and hunger are highest
GDP per capita and national poverty headcount rates
Source: BBS; World Bank 4
848
3,171
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Pove
rty
head
coun
t (%
)
GDP
per
cap
ita (P
PP in
tern
atin
oal $
)
GDP per capita
National poverty headcount rate
Bangladesh Roundtable Discussion, May 2016
Crop production and area growth rates
Annual growth rates, last five years (%)
5
Annual growth rates, five years before then (%)
Rice and wheat: From 2010-11 to 2014-15Vegetable and pulses: From 2009-10 to 2013-14
Rice and wheat: From 2005-06 to 2009-10Vegetable and pulses: From 2004-05 to 2008-09
Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Various years
-0.3
2.90.6
7.8
0.90.3
9.7
3.4
10.6
2.8
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15Rice Wheat Vegetable Pulses Potato
Area Production
2.4
-5.0
12.7
-13.5
6.25.77.2
13.8
-11.9
6.5
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15Rice Wheat Vegetable Pulses Maize
Area Production
Bangladesh Roundtable Discussion, May 2016
Agricultural growth has slowed down
• Agricultural growth has declined mainly due to decreased growth in rice production.
• Fish production has increased rapidly, at an average annual growth rate of 5.5% over 5 years from 2007/08 to 2013 (share in ag GDP reached 25% in 2013/14).
• livestock subsector experienced a growth rate of 3%, and share in agricultural GDP was 12% in 2013/14.
Average agricultural growth rates (%)
Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Various years
5.0
2.7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005/06 - 2009/10 2010/11 - 2014/15
Perc
ent/
year
Axis Title
Bangladesh Roundtable Discussion, May 2016
Agricultural wages increased sharply• Real Agricultural wages have increased sharply in the recent past.
In June 2008, agricultural laborers could buy 4.5 kg of rice from a day’s wage. Rice wage increased to 9 kg of rice in June 2014.
• Agricultural wage laborers are among the poorest in rural Bangladesh; increase of real wages has boosted their earnings, improved their food security, and helped them escape poverty.
• Rural agricultural labor is no longer abundant, so policies should focus on ways to improve productivity in the wake of rising labor costs.
• Mechanization, accelerating the adoption of modern agricultural technologies for improving crop yields, and improving labor productivity may ease farmers’ burden.
Source: IFPRI-PRSSP research
Bangladesh Roundtable Discussion, May 2016
Selected determinates of nutrition
• Diet diversity: Rice-dominated diets– Average proportion of calories from rice: 70% (2013)
• Water, Sanitation, & Hygiene (WASH): Increased coverage from 1990 to 2015– Safe drinking water: 68% to 87%
– Improved sanitation coverage: 50% to 89%
• Women empowerment is shown to improve nutrition, food security
Source: IFPRI, WHO/UNICEF JMP 2015, FAO 2016, WEF 20158
Bangladesh Roundtable Discussion, May 2016
Stunting prevalence varies by region
Source: WFP 20129
A paradox: stunting is highest in regions of lowest poverty, and vice versa
Child stunting Poverty
Bangladesh Roundtable Discussion, May 2016
Paradox is partly explained by regional difference in women’s empowerment
• Sylhet division: lowest women’s empowerment, second highest income
• Barisal division: highest women’s empowerment, second lowest income
% of women empowered in 2012 by division (measured by WEAI)
Source: IFPRI-PRSSP
10
3028 27
20 20
12 11
23
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Bangladesh Roundtable Discussion, May 2016
Do empowered Bangladeshi women break poverty and hunger trap?
Using two rounds of Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS) panel survey data (2011-2015), IFPRI research results show that, an increase in women’s empowerment in agriculture (measured by Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) scores) helps: • people move out of poverty; • increase farmers’ income; • improve household, child, and maternal dietary diversity; and • increase agricultural diversity. Results also show that increased agricultural diversity improves
household dietary diversity.
Source: IFPRI-PRSSP research
Bangladesh Roundtable Discussion, May 2016
Household diet quality improved(using WFP’s Food Consumption Score: 0-112)
Average FCS score
12
Percentage of households with low FCS (<42)
Source: IFPRI-PRSSP 2011-2015 BIHS data
56.4
66.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline
Food
cons
umpt
ion
scor
e
23.1
8.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline
Perc
ent
Bangladesh Roundtable Discussion, May 2016
Frequency of food groups consumed in past 7 days increased
13
7.0 6.9
1.61.2
1.6
4.8
6.9
2.7
7.0 7.0
2.3 2.12.4
5.5
6.9
3.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Freq
uenc
y of
food
s con
sum
ed in
pas
t 7 d
ays
2011/12 Baseline 2015 MidlineSource: IFPRI-PRSSP 2011-2015 BIHS data
Bangladesh Roundtable Discussion, May 2016
Proportion of people who did not consume the food group in past 7 days
14
0.0 0.4
43.8
52.0
65.2
4.50.8
41.2
0.0 0.0
29.323.0
47.4
2.4 0.2
23.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
% o
f peo
ple
with
out c
onsu
mpt
ion
of fo
od g
roup
in
pas
t 7 d
ays
2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline
Source: IFPRI-PRSSP 2011-2015 BIHS data
Bangladesh Roundtable Discussion, May 2016
National frameworks and plans for food security and nutrition
Strategy/Plan Relation to food security, nutritionVision 2021 • Aims to eliminate food deficiency and attain
self-sufficiency in food production• Includes some nutritional targets/goals (e.g.
drinking water, diet diversity)
7th Five Year Plan • Centers on economic growth and poverty reduction
• Food security and nutrition strategies in line with National Food Policy
Strategic Plan for Health, Population, Nutrition Sector Development Programme(2011-2016)
• Sets policy intentions regarding health, population, and nutrition services
• Strategies include coordination of activities across sectors 15
Bangladesh Roundtable Discussion, May 2016
Architecture of nutrition governance in Bangladesh
16Source: Rashid and Manandhar 2013
Bangladesh Roundtable Discussion, May 2016
Selected policy gaps• Examining and improving key policies driving diet
diversity and quality
• Leveraging agriculture for growth, reduced poverty, and better nutrition and health
• Developing a national monitoring and evaluation system to guide policy formation and implementation
• Enhancing multisectoral approach through nutrition mainstreaming in all relevant sectors
17
Bangladesh Roundtable Discussion, May 2016
Selected implementation gaps
• Improving coverage of key nutrition programs (e.g. micronutrient supplementation)
• Improving coordination across sectors, stakeholders, AND levels of government
• Engaging with media and civil society to improve awareness, accountability
18
Bangladesh Roundtable Discussion, May 2016
Selected knowledge gaps
• Building productive and resilient agriculture and food systems– E.g. Adapting to and mitigating the impacts of climate change
• Accelerating progress in nutrition– E.g. Sustaining progress in reducing stunting (3 percentage
points drop from 2013-14)
• Nutrition, health, and social protection– E.g. Addressing short and long-term shocks while boosting
productivity and nutrition
19
Bangladesh Roundtable Discussion, May 2016
In summaryChallenges and opportunities
Strengths• Strong and sustained economic
growth• Government commitment to
evidence-based policymaking• Highly suitable for investment, e.g. in
biofortification interventions
Weaknesses• Unfavorable land tenure
arrangements• Low level of women’s empowerment• Weak access to improved WASH
Opportunities• Momentum from MDGs/SDGs and
commitment from DPs• Strong set of NGOs• Huge potential for rural nonfarm
sector
Threats• Natural disasters and climate change• Population growth/changing
demographics• Rising land constraints
20