AUTONOMOUS / DRIVERLESS VEHICLESSurvey: Pending Shifts in Corporate Real Estate
By Cushman & Wakefield in collaboration with CoreNet Global
Fall 2018
Cushman & Wakefield, in partnership with CoreNet Global, conducted a 10-questionsurvey on the impact that autonomous / driverless vehicles (AVs) are expected to haveon businesses and their real estate decisions. Responses were collected fromattendees at the 2017-2018 CoreNet Global Summits in Seattle, London, andSingapore. The 500 responses represent corporate real estate executivesfrom companies headquartered all around the globe.
The following report explores the key findings uncovered from respondentfeedback, including when AVs will begin to impact the marketplace, how AVswill change employees’ workdays, and how real estate strategy will beimpacted by the technology.
In reviewing corporate real estate (CRE) executives’ perceptionsof AV technology, a few trends emerge.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
• Decade Away: Outlooks vary, but a majority predict that AV technology will become prevalent between 2025 and 2034. A fifth of respondents don’t expect AV dominance to happen until after 2040.
• Net Positive: Implementation of AVs will have a positive impact on business. Optimism is highest at companies in the life sciences and TMT—technology,media, and telecommunications—sectors.
• The Main Thing Remains the Main Thing: Considerations such as rentalrates and neighborhood amenities will continue to be important for CREstrategy. Three-fourths of CRE executives foresee AVs having no impacton the quantity of office space required.
• Business Focused: Business travel and daily commutes are seenas the main reasons to be excited by AV technology, especially inthe Americas and EMEA. Nearly 70% of respondents claim theywill use “saved” commute time for work activities.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (CONTINUED)
FORECASTED IMPLEMENTATION
FORECAST CRE IMPACTBUSINESS IMPACT RESPONDENTS
Autonomous Vehicle Tipping PointIn what year do you think the majority of transportation will be conductedby autonomous driverless vehicles?
Source: CoreNet Global; Cushman & Wakefield
Autonomous / driverless vehicles (AVs) produced by Waymo and Uber have self-driven more miles than the average American would drive in 800 years. However, there remains significant progress to be made before AVs are our primary transportation source. Industry experts have varied thoughts on when AVs will become common-place.
CRE executives are not overly confident that AVs will account for the majority of transport in the next six years. However, nearly two-thirds (62%) believe the tipping point will take place in the decade between 2025 and 2034.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Before 2025 2025-2029 2030-2034 2035-2039 2040-2044 2045-2049 2050+
62%
FORECAST CRE IMPACTBUSINESS IMPACT RESPONDENTS
Autonomous Vehicle Tipping PointIn what year do you think the majority of transportation will be conductedby autonomous / driverless vehicles?
Source: CoreNet Global; Cushman & Wakefield
A third of CRE executives expect the AV tipping point to occur by 2026. Over two-thirds are confident it will happen by 2030. Approximately 20% of respondents expect the shift to transpire after 2040.
Pessimism is highest in EMEA. Only half of respondents from companies whose headquarters are in EMEA expect this to take place by 2034, as compared to 74% of Asia Pacific and 77% of Americas respondents. And, 21% of EMEA CRE executives believe it won’t happen before 2050.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%20
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
2720
2820
2920
3020
3120
3220
3320
3420
3520
3620
3720
3820
3920
4020
4120
4220
4320
4420
4520
4620
4720
4820
4920
50+
Overall Cumulative %AmericasAsia PacificEMEA
FORECAST CRE IMPACTBUSINESS IMPACT RESPONDENTS
Excitement for Autonomous VehiclesHow excited are you to utilize driverless vehicles for the following transportation purposes?(Scale: Extremely excited = 5 and 1 = Very unexcited)
Source: CoreNet Global; Cushman & Wakefield
Looking forward, excitement is highest for the prospect of AV transportation’s impact on business travel. The least appealing use is for personal vacations.
With the exception of business travel, respondents who live in the Asia Pacific region are more excited about AV transportation as a solution than their counterparts in the Americas or EMEA. In particular, getting around town (excluding daily commute) is considerably more interesting to respondents who live in Asia Pacific.
Overall Region of Respondent
4.053.93
3.82
3.37
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
BusinessTravel(OtherCities)
DailyCommute
AroundTown
(Shopping,etc.)
PersonalVacations
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
BusinessTravel
DailyCommute
AroundTown
Americas Asia Pacific EMEA
FORECAST CRE IMPACTBUSINESS IMPACT RESPONDENTS
Time UtilizationIf your current commute was driven by an autonomous vehicle tomorrow,
how would you utilize saved time?
Source: CoreNet Global; Cushman & Wakefield
Confidence is high that time
currently spent driving or
actively commuting will be
replaced by work activities.
Overall, 69% of respondents
indicate they will use the time
saved by AVs to either
conduct business phone calls
or complete work. This
expectation is highest for CRE
executives who live in the
Americas (76%) and lowest in
EMEA (59%).
Respondents who live in
EMEA are nearly twice as
likely to use the time for
entertainment, while those in
the Americas are almost half
as likely to say they would
sleep during their commute.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Entertainment Sleep Talk on phone –
business
Talk on phone –
personal
Work
Americas Asia Pacific EMEA
IMPACT ON BUSINESS
FORECAST CRE IMPACTBUSINESS IMPACT RESPONDENTS
Business Impact of AVsWhat sort of impact will driverless vehicles have on your company’s business?
Sentiment towards the impact of AVs on business is generally positive or neutral. Only 2% of CRE executives believe AVs will have a negative impact on their company’s business. Half of all respondents believe it will be positive. A fifth don’t foresee any specific impact on their business and the remaining 28% expect it to be a mixed bag. These trends are consistent by region, although in Asia Pacific the expectation of “no impact” is higher.
Not surprisingly, economic developers are the most bullish on the positive impact of AVs.
Source: CoreNet Global; Cushman & Wakefield
2%
20%
28%
50%
Negative impact No impact Some good / some bad impact Positive impact
Overall Role of Company
22% 17% 22%
11%29%
28%
67%52% 47%
EconomicDeveloper
End User ServiceProvider
FORECAST CRE IMPACTBUSINESS IMPACT RESPONDENTS
Business Impact of AVsWhat sort of impact will driverless vehicles have on your company’s business?
Optimism is highest among CRE executives in the life sciences sector with nearly two-thirds indicating AVs will have a positive impact on their business. Among TMT and industry respondents nearly 60% expect a positive impact.
On the other side of the coin, financial services is the only sector where there is not a plurality expecting a positive impact. Forty percent of financial services respondents see “some good / some bad impact” as the likely outcome, while only 38% predict a purely positive impact.
Source: CoreNet Global; Cushman & Wakefield
64%59% 58%
55%50% 49% 48%
38%
LifeSciences
TMT Industry BusinessServices
PublicSector
Construction &Architecture
RealEstate
FinancialServices
Positive impact
FORECAST CRE IMPACTBUSINESS IMPACT RESPONDENTS
Impact on Employees’ Telecommuting PatternsWhat impact will driverless car technology have on the amount of time employeesat your company telecommute (versus work in the office)?
The impact on telecommuting patterns are mixed. Overall, 42% of respondents expect there will be no change in employees’ telecommuting. Thirty-one percent of CRE executives see telecommuting happening less often in a world of AVs. This perspective is more common for those who sit in the Americas (39%) or work for companies headquartered in the Americas (36%).
Respondents from companies headquartered in Asia Pacific and those who live in EMEA are most likely to predict telecommuting will happen more often once AVs are commonplace.
Source: CoreNet Global; Cushman & Wakefield
27% 25%33% 28%
19%28%
36%
42%39%
48%47%
42%
44%41%
31% 36%
18%25%
39%28% 23%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Overall Americas AsiaPacific
EMEA Americas AsiaPacific
EMEA
Telecommute lessNo changeTelecommute more
Location of Company HQ Location of Respondent
FORECAST CRE IMPACTBUSINESS IMPACT RESPONDENTS
Impact on Employees’ Telecommuting PatternsWhat impact will driverless car technology have on the amount of time employees
at your company telecommute (versus work in the office)?
For companies headquartered
in the Americas, almost all
sectors are more likely to see
telecommuting decrease when
AVs become viable. The only
exception is construction &
architecture where a third of
CRE executives indicate
telecommuting will be more
prevalent as opposed to only
13% expecting it to become
less common.
Companies with headquarters
in the other two regions are
consistently more likely to
expect an increase in
telecommuting regardless of
the sector.
Source: CoreNet Global; Cushman & Wakefield
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Bus.
Serv.
Construct.
& Arch.
Fin.
Serv.
Industry Real
Estate
Real
Estate
Construct.
& Arch.
Construct.
& Arch.
Real
Estate
Fin.
Serv.
Telecommute more Telecommute less
Americas Asia Pacific EMEA
*Includes all sectors with at least 15 responses.
IMPACT ON CRE
FORECAST CRE IMPACTBUSINESS IMPACT RESPONDENTS
Perspective on Office Space
Will driverless car technology change how your company looks at office space?
For many, AV technology is
going to change CRE strategy.
One obvious impact will be the
lessening importance of
parking around the office
space. However, certain
factors will continue to be
extremely important. For
example, over 90% of
respondents indicate they will
be equally or more focused on
rents costs and the proximity
of their office space to
neighborhood amenities.
After parking, two other
factors will require less focus
according to 23% of
respondents: proximity to
public transportation and
distance from employee base.
Source: CoreNet Global; Cushman & Wakefield
17%
23%
23%
29%
30%
31%
32%
21%
61%
53%
48%
59%
63%
61%
61%
16%
23%
23%
11%
6%
8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Parking options in / around building
Proximity to highways
Distance from employee base
Proximity to public transportation options
Proximity to customers / clients
Proximity to restaurants and neighborhood amenities
Rental rates
More focused on No change Less focused on
FORECAST CRE IMPACTBUSINESS IMPACT RESPONDENTS
Perspective on Office SpaceWill driverless car technology change how your company looks at office space?
Five of the seven factors rated had more respondents indicating their focus on them would increase in a world of AVs. The only exceptions are parking options and the distance from employees, the latter which had almost exactly the same percentage saying “more” and “less” (23%).
Proximity will increase in importance, with 26% more respondents citing an increase in focus on neighborhood amenities and 20% more focused on distance from customers / clients.
Source: CoreNet Global; Cushman & Wakefield
-44%
0%
6%
7%
20%
24%
26%
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Parking options in / around building
Distance from employee base
Proximity to public transportation options
Proximity to highways
Proximity to customers / clients
Rental rates
Proximity to restaurants and neighborhood amenities
FORECAST CRE IMPACTBUSINESS IMPACT RESPONDENTS
Amount of Office Space RequiredWill driverless car technology change the amount of office space your company needs?
AV technology will not impact the quantity of office space required by most companies. This is consistently true across regions and business sectors.
Very few companies expect AVs to lead to a demand for more office space. Approximately one-fifth of CRE executives believe they will end up needing less space because of the impact of AV technology. This is highest among public sector respondents (25%), followed by life sciences and real estate (both at 21%).
Source: CoreNet Global; Cushman & Wakefield
18%
75%
7%
Less space No change More space
Overall Sector of Company
25% 21% 21% 20% 18% 15% 15% 10%
69%
57%70% 76% 82%
81% 78% 85%
6%21%
9% 7%
Public
Sec
tor
Life S
cienc
es
Real E
state
Finan
cial S
ervic
esTM
T
Indus
try
Busine
ss S
ervic
es
Constr
uct. &
Arch
itectu
re
FORECAST CRE IMPACTBUSINESS IMPACT RESPONDENTS
Impact on Parking FacilitiesWill the adoption of driverless cars lead to obsolete parking facilities for your organizationand how difficult do you perceive these to be repurposed?
One-fourth of respondents expect to have a difficult (and/or costly) time repurposing parking facilities in their portfolio that become obsolete with the implementation of AV technology. This is a significantly smaller issue for companies whose headquarters are in EMEA (14%) and Asia Pacific (18%) as opposed to the Americas (31%).
The sectors most concerned about parking facility repurposing are TMT (53%), life sciences (36%), and real estate (31%).Source: CoreNet Global; Cushman & Wakefield
23%
25%37%
15%
No parking facilities in portfolio Yes parking facilities – difficult and costly to repurposeYes parking facilities – easy to repurpose Yes parking facilities – no impact
Overall Region of Company HQ
23% 23% 23%
31%18% 14%
33%
42%45%
13% 17% 18%
Americas Asia Pacific EMEA
RESPONDENTDEMOGRAPHICS
FORECAST CRE IMPACTBUSINESS IMPACT RESPONDENTS
Diverse Respondent PoolResponses received from 500 different CRE executives at CoreNet Global Summits
A total of 500 responses collected from attendees during the 2017-2018 CoreNetGlobal Summits are included in the analysis:
• Seattle: 218• London: 158
• Singapore: 124
A diverse group of CRE executives with different roles and from various sectors are represented. The most common combinations are real estate service providers (30%), construction & architecture service providers (14%), and financial services end users (11%).
Source: CoreNet Global; Cushman & Wakefield
50%
40%
6%
4%
Service provider End user
Other Economic Developer
Role of Company Sector of Company*
48
55
56
84
206
0 50 100 150 200
Industry
FinancialServices
BusinessServices
Construction &Architecture
Real Estate
*Also received responses from the TMT, public sector, and life sciences sectors
FORECAST CRE IMPACTBUSINESS IMPACT RESPONDENTS
Diverse Respondent PoolResponses received from 500 different CRE executives at CoreNet Global Summits
Respondents were asked to identify the region where they work and the region in which their company’s global headquarters is located.
Just under half (47%) of respondents sit in the Americas while 30% are in EMEA, and one-fourth (23%) are in the Asia Pacific region.
The corporate headquarters are slightly more tilted towards the Americas (63), with one-fourth (24%) of respondents from EMEA, and 13% working for companies headquartered in Asia Pacific.
Source: CoreNet Global; Cushman & Wakefield
47%
23%
30%
Americas Asia Pacific EMEA
Region of Respondent Region of Company HQ
63%13%
24%
Americas Asia Pacific EMEA
Autonomous / Driverless VehiclesSurvey: Future Impact on Corporate Real Estate
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About CoreNet GlobalCoreNet Global is a non-profit association, headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia (US), representing more than 10,000 executives in 50 countries with strategic responsibility for the real estate assets of large corporations. The organization’smission is to advance the practice of corporate real estate through professional development opportunities, publications, research, conferences, designations and networking in 47 local chapters and networking groups globally.
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