Australian Air Quality Forecasting
System
Peter Manins
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
Australia
WMO GURME SAG member
Demonstration ProjectDemonstration Project
Maximum 1-hr ozone levels in Australian cities (Air NEPM = 0.1 ppm)
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Ozo
ne
co
nc
en
tra
tio
n (
pp
m)
Melbourne
Sydney
Adelaide
Perth
Brisbane
Canberra
Air NEPM
Source: data from environment agencies
PORT PHILLIP BAY
260 280 300 320 340 360
EASTING (km)
DND
BRI
FTSPSY
PTC
MTC ALP
PTHGLS
GVD
PLP BXH
5740
5760
5780
5800
5820
5840
NO
RT
HIN
G (
km)
LIGHT
MODERATE
HEAVY
AIR QUALITY FORECAST- AIR QUALITY FORECAST- MELBOURNEMELBOURNE
AIR QUALITY FORECAST- AIR QUALITY FORECAST- MELBOURNEMELBOURNE
NORTH EAST
HOUR
IND
EX
NORTH EAST
HOUR
IND
EX
Tomorrow will be fine and sunnyTomorrow will be fine and sunny-with moderate to heavy air pollution-with moderate to heavy air pollution
Melbourne EddyMelbourne Eddy
Bay BreezeBay BreezeSea BreezeSea Breeze
Cold FrontCold Front
Melbourne – high resolution need
The System Components
MET ANALYSIS
EPADATABASE
AQ + METOBS.
WEATHER PREDICTION
EMISSIONMODELLING
TRANSPORTAND
REACTION
AIR QUALITYFORECAST
EVALUATION
BoM-LAPS+CTMBoM-LAPS+CTM
Data Flows for AAQFS
GASP
CTM NSW
LAPS05 VIC
CTM VIC
LAPS375
LAPS125
LAPS05 NSW
SUPERCOMPUTERS
POST-PROCESSING, ARCHIVING, GRAPHICS, VERIFICATION
EPA VIC
EPA NSW
ARCHIVE
WEB SITE
FTP SITE
EPA NSW
• Generate air quality forecasts twice per day for a period of 24–36 hours: (3 pm and 9 am).
• Forecast for a wide range of air pollutants: NOx, ROC, SO2, O3, aerosol, air toxics.
• Resolve air quality down to suburb level (5 km, 1 km, and near-road in some cases).
• Generate a ‘business as usual’ forecast and a ‘greener emissions’ forecast.
AAQFS Design FeaturesAAQFS Design Features
THE AUSTRALIAN AIR QUALITY FORECASTING SYSTEM
WEATHERMODEL
EMISSIONSINVENTORY
AIR QUALITYMODEL
AIR QUALITYAIR QUALITYFORECASTFORECAST
Tomorrow will be fine Tomorrow will be fine and sunny!and sunny!
AAQFS Emissions Inventory
WEATHERMODEL
EMISSIONSINVENTORY
AIR QUALITYMODEL
AIR QUALITYAIR QUALITYFORECASTFORECAST
SOURCE CATEGORIESSOURCE CATEGORIESCars, trucks, buses, motor cycles, lawn Cars, trucks, buses, motor cycles, lawn
mowers, mowers, spray painting combustion stoves, cut spray painting combustion stoves, cut
grass, trees, grass, trees, dry cleaners, marine pleasure craft, dry cleaners, marine pleasure craft,
aviation, aviation, commercial shipping, rail transport, commercial shipping, rail transport,
surface coating/thinners,surface coating/thinners,natural gas leakage, natural gas leakage,
domestic/commercial solvents, service domestic/commercial solvents, service stations,stations,
refueling losses, cutback bitumen, refueling losses, cutback bitumen, domestic aerosols, domestic natural gas domestic aerosols, domestic natural gas
combustion, petroleum refining, chemical combustion, petroleum refining, chemical manufacturing, printing, fabricated manufacturing, printing, fabricated metals,basic metal processing, fuel metals,basic metal processing, fuel storage, paint manufacturing, food storage, paint manufacturing, food manufacturing,non-metallic mineral manufacturing,non-metallic mineral
processing, hospitals, incinerator, paper processing, hospitals, incinerator, paper products, quarrying textiles, coal mining, products, quarrying textiles, coal mining,
TAIL-PIPE EMISSIONSTAIL-PIPE EMISSIONS
ROAD-LEVEL EMISSIONSROAD-LEVEL EMISSIONS
2 6 0 2 8 0 3 0 0 3 2 0 3 4 0 3 6 0
E A S T IN G (k m )
5 7 4 0
5 7 6 0
5 7 8 0
5 8 0 0
5 8 2 0
5 8 4 0
NO
RT
HIN
G (
km)
PHN
CBA
SBC
SLC
MAR
FWK
AVL
MOR
LVN
DND
BRI
FTS
PSY
PTC
MTCALP
RPK
WBB
P O R T P H ILLIP B A Y
MELBOURNE
GEELONG
WESTERN PORT BAY
CORIO BAY
MORNINGTONPENINSULA
BELLARINEPENINSULA
B A S S S TR A IT
WERRIBEE
2 6 0 2 8 0 3 0 0 3 2 0 3 4 0 3 6 0
E A S T IN G (k m )
5 7 4 0
5 7 6 0
5 7 8 0
5 8 0 0
5 8 2 0
5 8 4 0
NO
RT
HIN
G (
km)
PHN
CBA
SBC
SLC
MAR
FWK
AVL
MOR
LVN
DND
BRI
FTS
PSY
PTC
MTCALP
RPK
WBB
P O R T P H ILLIP B A Y
MELBOURNE
GEELONG
WESTERN PORT BAY
CORIO BAY
MORNINGTONPENINSULA
BELLARINEPENINSULA
B A S S S TR A IT
WERRIBEE
Fleet emissions -Fleet emissions -MelbourneMelbourne
Fleet emissions -Fleet emissions -MelbourneMelbourne
Emissions Inventory• Motor vehicle emissions (diurnal, weekly var.)• Domestic wood fires (season, degree days)• Industrial stack plume rise (stability, winds)
• Biogenic emissions from soil, vegetation (temperature, PAR, season)• Sea salt aerosol (winds, sea state, temperature)• Wind blown dust (winds, LAI, moisture)• Wild fires and controlled burns (winds, degree days, humidity)
As much as possible, these emissions and their interactions with the forecast meteorology are calculated on-line.
STUDY REGIONS
SYDNEYSYDNEYMELBOURNEMELBOURNE
AUSTRALIAAUSTRALIA
143.0 144.0 145.0 146.0 147.0
EASTING
-40.0
-39.0
-38.0
-37.0
-36.0
NO
RT
HIN
G
M ELBO U R N E
W AN G AR ATTA
BEN D IG O
BALLAR AT
W AR R AG U LG EELO N G
W O D O N G A
SH EPPAR TO N
C ASTLEM AIN E
BASS STR AIT
200 250 300 350 400 450 500
EASTIN G (km )
6150
6200
6250
6300
6350
6400
NO
RT
HIN
G (
km)
SYD N EY
M U SW ELLBR O O K
N EW C ASTLE
PIC TO N
W O LLO N G O N G
PEN R ITH
LITH G O W
AAQFS in Victoria
144.2 144.4 144.6 144.8 145.0 145.2 145.4
EASTIN G
-38 .4
-38 .2
-38 .0
-37 .8
-37 .6
NO
RT
HIN
G
A LP H
B X H L M TC L
P TC K
P A IS
B R TN
R M IT
G S TH G R V D
PORT PHILLIPBAY
BASS STR AIT
MELBOURNE
GEELONG
143.0 144.0 145.0 146.0 147.0
EASTING
-40.0
-39.0
-38.0
-37.0
-36.0
NO
RT
HIN
G
M ELBO U R N E
W AN G AR ATTA
BEN D IG O
BALLAR AT
W AR R AG U LG EELO N G
W O D O N G A
SH EPPAR TO N
C ASTLEM AIN E
BASS STR AIT
Urban CTM domain- Melbourne
AUSTRALIA
VICTORIA
Regional CTM domain
Example, The Forecastfor 6 June 01
on the Web: www.epa.vic.gov.au/air/AAQFS
not on the Web
Example, Summer validation(1)
15 March 200115 March 2001
NOy NO2
O3VOC
Example, Summer validation(2)
15 March 200115 March 2001
AQI
PM2.5/10 NO2/NOy
PM10/NOy
50th,90th,95th,99th,99.9th,100th
percentile concentrations, March 2001 for Melbourne/Geelong
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
OBSERVED (ppb)
MO
DE
LL
ED
(p
pb
)
ALPHINGTON
BOX HILL
BRIGHTON
GEELONG SOUTH
PAISLEY
PT. COOK
NOy
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80 100
OBSERVED (ppb)
MO
DE
LL
ED
(p
pb
)
ALPHINGTON
BOX HILL
BRIGHTON
GEELONG SOUTH
PAISLEY
PT. COOK
NO2
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80 100
OBSERVED (ppb)
MO
DE
LL
ED
(p
pb
)
ALPHINGTON
BOX HILL
BRIGHTON
GEELONG SOUTH
PAISLEY
PT. COOK
O3
0
30
60
90
120
150
0 30 60 90 120 150
OBSERVED (ppb)
MO
DE
LL
ED
(p
pb
)
ALPHINGTON
BOX HILL
BRIGHTON
PM10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
OBSERVED (ppb)
MO
DE
LL
ED
(p
pb
)
ALPHINGTON
BOX HILL
BRIGHTON
GEELONG SOUTH
PAISLEY
PT. COOK
NOy
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80 100
OBSERVED (ppb)
MO
DE
LL
ED
(p
pb
)
ALPHINGTON
BOX HILL
BRIGHTON
GEELONG SOUTH
PAISLEY
PT. COOK
NO2
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80 100
OBSERVED (ppb)
MO
DE
LL
ED
(p
pb
)
ALPHINGTON
BOX HILL
BRIGHTON
GEELONG SOUTH
PAISLEY
PT. COOK
O3
0
30
60
90
120
150
0 30 60 90 120 150
OBSERVED (ppb)
MO
DE
LL
ED
(p
pb
)
ALPHINGTON
BOX HILL
BRIGHTON
PM10
Contingency Table Melbourne & Geelong, March, June-July 2001
Probability of Detection, SP = [Yes,Yes]/Total Obs [Yes] = 69/116 = 59%
Fraction of Realised Events, SR = [Yes,Yes]/Total Forecast [Yes] = 69/130
False Alarm Rate, (1-SR) = 61/130 = 47%
AAQFS
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80 100OBSERVED CONCENTRATION (ppb)
FO
RE
CA
ST
CO
NC
EN
TR
AT
ION
(p
pb
).
PERSISTENCE0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80 100
OBSERVED CONCENTRATION (ppb)
FO
RE
CA
ST
CO
NC
EN
TR
AT
ION
(p
pb
).
PHOTOCHEMICAL SMOGPerformance- daily 1-hour O3 max
Why is AAQFS special?
• Provides twice-daily forecasts of AQI or Provides twice-daily forecasts of AQI or RPI (and 18 pollutants) for EPAsRPI (and 18 pollutants) for EPAs on time on time
• Shows the daily development of pollution Shows the daily development of pollution (highly instructive; web mounted)(highly instructive; web mounted)
• Because prognostic, unusual events Because prognostic, unusual events handled (if Emissions, Weather desc. OK)handled (if Emissions, Weather desc. OK)
• Can explore results with powerful display Can explore results with powerful display tools and better, slower, modelstools and better, slower, models
• Alternative scenarios, special locations Alternative scenarios, special locations handledhandled