URBAN WATER INSTITUTE18th Annual Water Policy Conference
Update on Long-Term Delta Solutions
August 25, 2011
Introduction
Metropolitan Water District of Southern California
Regional Water Wholesaler to 6 counties5,200 square miles
26 Member Agencies~19 million residentsRegional economy: $1 trillionRetail demand 2009:
4 million acre-feetProvided about ½ of retail demands
Delta
LA Aqueduct
Colorado River Aqueduct SuppliesState Water
Project Supplies
Sierra Mtns
Local Groundwater and
Recycling
Conservation
Sources of Water for Southern California
Balanced Approach to Planning
Four Generations of Metropolitan Investments
Colorado River Aqueduct
State Water Project
Regional Storage and Transfers
Conservation and Local Supplies
Heavy dependence on imported supply
and SWP Diversions
Emphasis on Conservation, Local Supplies, and Storage & Transfers
Early 1990’s Current Strategy
MWD’s Balanced Approach
Local Investments Reduce Needs for Imported Supplies
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 260.0
1,000,000.0
2,000,000.0
3,000,000.0
4,000,000.0
5,000,000.0
6,000,000.0
7,000,000.0
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Total Local SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
Supply
Forecast Year
Mill
ion
Acre
-Fee
t
Retail Demand
Local Investments Reduce Needs for Imported Supplies
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 260.0
1,000,000.0
2,000,000.0
3,000,000.0
4,000,000.0
5,000,000.0
6,000,000.0
7,000,000.0
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
ConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservation
Total Local SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
Supply
Forecast Year
Mill
ion
Acre
-Fee
t
Retail Demand
Local Investments Reduce Needs for Imported Supplies
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 260.0
1,000,000.0
2,000,000.0
3,000,000.0
4,000,000.0
5,000,000.0
6,000,000.0
7,000,000.0
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
Imported Supply Need
New Local Supply & Conservation
New Local Supply & Conservation
New Local Supply & Conservation
New Local Supply & Conservation
New Local Supply & Conservation
New Local Supply & Conservation
New Local Supply & Conservation
New Local Supply & Conservation
New Local Supply & Conservation
New Local Supply & Conservation
New Local Supply & Conservation
New Local Supply & Conservation
New Local Supply & Conservation
New Local Supply & Conservation
New Local Supply & Conservation
New Local Supply & Conservation
New Local Supply & Conservation
New Local Supply & Conservation
New Local Supply & Conservation
New Local Supply & Conservation
New Local Supply & Conservation
New Local Supply & Conservation
New Local Supply & Conservation
New Local Supply & Conservation
New Local Supply & Conservation
ConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservationConservation
Total Local SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
SupplyTotal Local
Supply
Forecast Year
Mill
ion
Acre
-Fee
t
Retail Demand
New Local Supply & Conservation
Metropolitan’s Storage Capacity
0.0
1,000,000.0
2,000,000.0
3,000,000.0
4,000,000.0
5,000,000.0
6,000,000.0
Mill
ion
Acre
-Fee
t
14x Increase in Capacity
Conservation, Recycling, & GW Recovery
0.0
200,000.0
400,000.0
600,000.0
800,000.0
1,000,000.0
1,200,000.0
1,400,000.0
1,600,000.0
1,800,000.0
2,000,000.0
Mill
ion
Acre
-Fee
t
Actual Projected
Regional Investments Thru 2010
Urban Conservation $ 44 Million
Recycling & GW Recovery $1,240 Million
Total $1,580 Million
Metropolitan’s Regional
InvestmentsRegional Projects
Urban Conservation --
Recycling 64
GW Recovery 21
Seawater Desalination 3
Need for Imported Supplies
Imported Water is Essential
Colorado RiverDecade-long droughtGrowth in the lower basinEnvironmental
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Colorado River
Cut to Basic Apportionment
Lower Colorado River MSCP
Transfer Programs
Colorado River Drought
1 MAF+
SWP Supplies are at Risk
19671971
19751979
19831987
19911995
19992003
20070
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Seismic RiskBay Area Faults
Seismic RiskBay Area Faults
Fishery Declines Delta smelt
Fishery Declines Delta smelt
18
Sea Level RiseSea Level Rise
SubsidenceSubsidence
Key Delta Risks
Local
Los Angeles Aqueduct
Colorado River Aqueduct
State Water Project
Bay Area – 33%Bay Area – 33%
Central Valley – 23 to 90%Central Valley – 23 to 90%
Southern Cal – 30%Southern Cal – 30%
Some regions up to 100% dependent
Some regions up to 100% dependent
Statewide Risk
San Andreas
San AndreasHayward
Hayward
Calaveras
Calaveras
Greenville
Greenville
Vaca-Kirby
Vaca-Kirby
Rodgers Crk
Rodgers Crk
Concord
Concord
66% probability of > 6.5 magnitude earthquake by 2032
66% probability of > 6.5 magnitude earthquake by 2032
Midland
Midland
Antioch
Antioch
Bay-Delta Region Major Faults San G
regorio
San Gregorio
27%21%
10%
11%3%
4%
%
Seismic Vulnerability
Judicial Ruling Total Impacts
2008670,000 Acre-feet~$201 million
2009619,000 Acre-feet~$186 million
20101,043,000 Acre-feet~$313 million
Delta Solution
A Balanced Approach for Co-Equal Goals
Co-Equal Goal 1 – Ecosystem RestorationCo-Equal Goal 2 – Water Supply Reliability
DisasterESA protection
Co-Equal Goal 1Ecosystem Restoration
Ecosystem Restoration Target = Twice the size of Washington DC
Restoration & Preservation Targets
Tidal Marsh 65 - 105,000 ac
Seasonal Floodplain 10,000 ac
Riparian Habitat 5,000 ac
River Channel Margin 20 mi
TOTAL 80 - 120,000 ac
Ecosystem Restoration and Preservation Targets
26
Sac RiverSac River
Beyond Habitat Restoration Toxics, Unscreened Diversions, etc.
Predator Control
Corbula amurensis (Overbite clam)
Ammonia
Ocean Conditions
Invasive SpeciesEgeria densa
(Brazilian Waterweed)
Co-Equal Goal 2Water Supply Reliability
Sacramento
SWP PumpsCVP Pumps
Sac River
Stockton
Preliminary Subject to Revision
SJ River
Conveyance Alignment Options
Long-term operations permitCoverage for existing & future listed speciesFuture regulatory obligation defined upfront
Regulatory Assurances
East Canal ~ $8 billion *
West Canal ~ $9 billion *
Tunnel ~ $12.7 billion *
* URS developed initial cost estimates; Second independent expert cost analysis from 5RMK Inc completed in Jan. 2010.
* Includes 35% construction contingency on tunnel (25% on non-tunnel) and 18% for engineering/project management. Preliminary Subject to Revision
What is the Range of Cost?
Timeline Process
2022 20232020 20212010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
32 Preliminary Subject to Revision
Conservation Plan
Conservation Plan
RestorationRestoration
Enviro DocsEnviro Docs
EngineeringEngineering
PermitsPermits
Preliminary Final Design
Procure Equipment
Final Final
Final Final
OperationalOperational
Bio OpBio Op
Public Draft
Public Draft
Working Draft
Working Draft
Public Draft
Public Draft
ConstructionConstruction Land Acquisition & Construction
Near-Term Habitat Restoration Implementation
ProcurementProcurement
Admin Draft – Apr 2012; Public Draft – May 2012; Final EIR/EIS – Dec 2012
Timeline for Delta Solution
Frequently Asked Questions
Are you planning to increase pumping?
Early 1990’s Current Strategy
Source: Governor’s Delta Vision Report (Estimated total annual runoff 32.85 maf)
Is Southern California taking all the water?
Pacific Ocean48%
UpstreamConsumptive Use
31%
CVP-SWP Exports17%
In-Delta Consumptive Use
4%
Source: Governor’s Delta Vision Report (Estimated total annual runoff 32.85 maf)
Is Southern California taking all the water?
Pacific Ocean48%
UpstreamConsumptive Use
31%
CVP-SWP Exports17%
UpstreamUrban Use
2% MWD4%
In-Delta Consumptive Use
4%
Why can’t you replace Delta supplies with seawater desalination?
18-36 new desalination plants (1 MAF)Every 4-8 miles from LA to San Diego600 MW gross power requirementCost – $1,300 to $2,000 per acre-foot
Is the Delta solution too expensive?
Affordability based on tunnel option$12.7 billion
MWD share ~$3.4 billion (25 percent of total)15,000 cfs capacity1,560,000 acre-foot average SWP yield for Metropolitan
• MWD estimates• Restored Delta – Incremental cost of tunnel not melded with overall SWP supply; includes $200/af energy costs
What is the Cost of Other Supplies?
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
Incr
emen
tal S
uppl
y Co
st (
$/A
F)
$300 -1,300/AF
$500 -800/AF*
$960 -2,000/AF
$1,040 -2,300/AF $1,600 -
2,000/AF
What is the Capital Cost of Other Supply Improvement Projects?
San Francisco PUC East Bay MUD MWD - Delta Improvements
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
Capi
tal C
ost E
stim
ates
($/
AF)
* Capital Cost/AF = Total Capital Cost / Annual Deliveries
What is the Per-Capita Cost of Other Supply Improvement Projects?
San Francisco PUC East Bay MUD MWD - Delta Improvements
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
Per C
apita
Cos
t Esti
mat
es
* Per-Capita Cost = Total Capital Cost / Population Served
Colorado River Aqueduct
• 1931• $220 million bond• Assessed Valuation:
$2 billion
Ratio: 10%
State Water Project
• 1960• $1.75 billion bond
(MWD share ~50%)• Assessed Valuation:
$6 billion
Ratio: 6%
Delta Solution• $3.4 billion
(assumed MWD share)
• Assessed Valuation: $2 trillion
Ratio: 0.2%
Major Project Cost vs. Assessed Valuation
Rate Impact Summary
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
IRP Planning Approach3.5% Inflation
Aver
age
Rate
($/
AF)
How do we get to a solution?
Legislative/Congressional SupportRegulatory assurancesSound science & adaptive managementEffective governance structureLocal benefits
Why are you an optimist?
“For myself I am an optimist – it does not seem to be much use being anything else.”- Winston Churchill
“If you’re going through hell, keep going.”- Winston Churchill