Arizona’s Water Situation
Arizona League of Cities and Towns
August 20, 2015
Thomas Buschatzke, DirectorArizona Department of Water Resources
Water: Front Page News Coverage
• Choices - Too little too late 25% mandatory reductions (instituted in 2015) Late adoption of groundwater management
regulations (2014)
• Environmental requirements & lack of storage• Arizona v. California & Central Arizona Project
Arizona sued to ensure Colorado River Rights Arizona was victorious California gained higher priority through
Congressional negotiations authorizing the CAP California does not take a shortage
California’s Water Crisis
Why is Arizona not in a crisis? We’ve evolved.
• Salt River Project 1904• Yuma Irrigation Districts • Colorado River Compact 1922• Arizona v. California 1963• Central Arizona Project 1968-1996 • Groundwater Management Act of 1980 &
Amendments Creation of Arizona Department of Water Resources Mandatory Water Conservation Requirements Drought Preparedness Plan Requirements Assured Water Supply Program Underground Storage and Recovery Program & Arizona
Water Banking Authority • 9.0 MAF stored for future use
Arizona’s Water Management Story
Year Total Water Use(in million acre-feet)
Population (in millions)
Gross Domestic Income (in billions)
1957 7.1maf 1.1 $11.99
2013 7maf 6.58 $229.34
Change from 1957-2013
-0.1% 472% 1752%
1957 1973 1980 1990 2000 2010 20130
20406080
100120140160180200220240260
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
Water Use, Population and Economic Growth (1957 – 2013)
Adjusted Gross Domestic Income Population Water Use (Acre-Feet)
$ B
illi
on
Mil
lion
(ac
re-f
eet
or p
eop
le)
Water Source Million Acre-Feet (MAF)
% of Total
SURFACE WATER
Colorado River 2.8 40 %
CAP 1.6 23%
On-River 1.2 17%
In-State Rivers 1.2 17%
Salt-Verde .7
Gila & others .5
GROUNDWATER 2.7 40%
RECLAIMED WATER 0.2 3%
Total 7 MAF
Arizona’s Water SupplyAnnual Water Budget 2013
Source: ADWR, 2015
Arizona’s Water Use by Sector (2013)
Arizona is not in a crisis, but does face some challenges
Driving Forces• 15 year ongoing drought• Population and economic growth will increase demand for water
Short-term Challenges• Risks to Colorado River Supply
Shortage on the Colorado River System is likely Recurring Lower Basin Annual Deficit
Medium-term Challenges• Water resources in rural areas of the state are more stressed
Primary water source is groundwater Lack of groundwater regulation Lack of groundwater data Rural areas lack the resources to address their issues
Long-term Challenges• Growing statewide imbalance between existing water supplies and
demand projected in the next 25 years and 50 years
Short-term Drought Conditions• Current: 75% of State moderate to severe conditions• August 2014: 98% of State moderate to severe conditions
Short-term Drought Status Short–term Drought Status
August 12, 2014Short–term Drought Status
August 11, 2015
VS.
• Drought Emergency Declaration - June 1999 Allows for governmental entities to provide response and recovery
assistance to drought stricken areas of the State Enables farmers and ranchers to request assistance from the Federal
Government (Farm Service Agency)• Drought Task Force – 2003
Established by Governor’s Executive Order 2003-12 Culminated in adoption of the Arizona Drought Preparedness Plan in
2004• Intent to establish a flexible framework to refine drought monitoring
process, understand impacts and implement mechanisms to limit future vulnerability
• Some key elements: drought monitoring system; establishment of drought triggers; requirement for water providers to develop drought contingency plans
• Most urgent need was rural areas because alternative supplies often limited and local economies strongly impacted by drought
• Drought Declaration - 2007 Orders continued implementation of the Arizona Drought Preparedness
Plan and State of Arizona Emergency Response and Recovery Plan• May 22, 2015 ICG recommendation to the Governor to keep
declarations in place.
Arizona’s Historical Drought Actions
Colorado
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Probability of any level of shortage (Mead ≤ 1,075 ft.)
N 47 65 66 63
1st level shortage (Mead ≤ 1,075 and ≥1,050 ft)
0 47 46 40 34
2nd level shortage (Mead <1,050 and ≥1,025 ft)
0 0 19 21 20
3rd level shortage (Mead <1,025) 0 0 0 5 9
Challenges on the Colorado River:
Probabilities of Lower Colorado River Basin Shortage
Source: US Bureau of Reclamation CRSS Model Run – June 2015
Cities & Tribes
Cities Industry &
Tribes
Cities & Tribes
Ag
Underground Storage
CAP1.6 MAF
City of Yuma & Yuma Ag
River Cities
On-River1.2 MAF
Tribes, Industry, Ag
Tier 1 Shortage = 320,000 AF
Arizona Shortage in the Near TermArizona’s Allocation – 2.8 MAF
Efforts to address challenges on the Colorado River Drought Contingency Planning
• ADWR Director serves as Arizona’s Principal on matters relating to the Colorado River (A.R.S. 45-107(D))
• Discussions between: Basin States Department of the Interior Other contract holders
• Goal of discussions: Restore risks to levels achieved in the 2007 Guidelines Conserve 1.5 – 3.0 MAF in Lake Mead over the next 5 years Reduce the risks of Lake Mead falling below 1,000 ft. elevation as
we saw in the 2013 model projections• Memorandum of Understanding
Central Arizona Project = 345,000 AF Metropolitan Water District = 300,000 AF Southern Nevada Water Authority = 45,000 AF Bureau of Reclamation = 50,000 AF
• Arizona Water Banking Authority Over the last two decades the AWBA has stored 3.4
MAF (more than two years’ worth) of Colorado River deliveries to Central Arizona in order to provide back-up supplies in times of shortage over the long term.
• Mandatory municipal provider drought response plans Arizona water users have also stored water supplies as
a component of their water planning efforts.
• Statewide Drought Plan
Additional Efforts by Arizona
• ADWR received a petition for the initiation of procedures to designate an irrigation non-expansion area (February 2015)
Requirements within an irrigation non-expansion area• Prohibition on irrigating new acres• Metering and reporting requirements for most wells that pump
over 35 gallons per minute• No mandatory conservation requirements
• Petition signed by at least 25% of the irrigators in the sub-basin
• Public Hearing held in Bowie– May 16, 2015• Public comment period expired on July 17, 2015
Final water level data made available June 2, 2015 Groundwater model made available June 17, 2015
• Director Issued Decision Determining NOT to Designate as an irrigation non-expansion area
Challenges in the San Simon Valley Sub-basin
Arizona’s Efforts to Address Long-term Challenges
Strategic Vision for Water Supply Sustainability
Purpose: Identify strategies to help address Arizona’s future water needs and provide a stable economy for the future.
Findings: Projected imbalance between 900,000 and 3.2 MAF over the next 25 to 100 years.
• Strategic Priorities Identified: Resolution of Indian and Non-Indian Water Rights Claims Watershed/Forest Management Weather Modification Reclaimed Water Reuse Enhanced Stormwater Recharge Water Management Importation of New Water Supplies
• Arizona is NOT in a crisis!
• Arizona’s water supplies are resilient because of the choices that we made and actions that we continue to take.
• Some rural areas of the state are facing challenges due to the local impacts of drought. ADWR will continue to work with rural communities.
• Arizona has a recovery plan in place to access stored water when needed.
• ADWR and other Arizona water managers are closely monitoring the Colorado River and taking proactive steps to address the risk of Colorado River shortages and improve the health of the river system.
Conclusion
Questions?
Thomas BuschatzkeDirector
Phone: 602.771.8426Email: [email protected]
Website: www.azwater.gov