Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 1
On the Student Academic Success Facet of Our Strategic Plan
An Operations Management Perspective
Ardavan Asef-VaziriSystems and Operations Management, COBAE,
CSUN
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 2
Count what is countable. Measure what is measurable.
What is not measurable, make it measurable.
Galileo Galilei, 1564 -1642.
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 3
Freshmen
Transfers
Network of Value Added and Non-Value Added Activities
GraduateDrop-offs
HumanResources
CapitalResources
Value SystemInformation Infrastructure
CSUN Transformation Process
Network of Value Added and Non-Value Added Activities
GraduateDrop-offs
Freshmen
Transfers
HumanResources
CapitalResources
Value SystemInformation Infrastructure
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 4
Process Competencies
Quality
Cost
Flow Tim
e
Flex
ibili
ty
Stakeholders
Satisfaction
Customer Satisfactio
n
Value Chain
Performance
Financial Performanc
e
Expectations
Perceptions
Process Competencies
Customer Value Proposition
Quality
Cost
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 5
Competitive Space; Quality and Cost Efficiency
Cost
CSUN
P
B
S
N
Qualit
y o
f th
e R
eso
urc
es
and P
roce
sses
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 6
Competitive Space; Quality and Cost Efficiency
Cost Efficiency: 1/CostCostQualit
y o
f th
e R
eso
urc
es
and P
roce
sses
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 7
Competitive Space; Quality and Cost Efficiency
Cost Efficiency
World Class Universities
Qualit
y o
f th
e R
eso
urc
es
and P
roce
sses
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 8
Competitive Space; Quality and Cost Efficiency
Cost Efficiency
P
B
S
N
Qualit
y o
f th
e R
eso
urc
es
and P
roce
sses
CSUN
S ≈ 1, P ≈ 1, B ≈ 3, N ≈ 3, CSUN ≈ 6
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 9
From 2 dimensional space of Quality-Cost to one dimentional space of Quality/CostBased on the subjective evaluation of about 1000 SOM306 students we reached to the conclusion that the quality of the resources and learning processes of a world class institute such as Stanford is twice of that of CSUN. We can argue this. You may believe it is more or less. So please give me your numbers. At the same time., I am working on quantifying this. So if you have sources of data that we can help to quantify this let me know. Thanks.Based on the tuition and its related fees we reached to the conclusion that the cost efficiency of CSUN is 6 times of that of Stanford.We then can conclude that quality to cost for CSUN is 3 times of that of Stanford.
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 10
Flow Time: COABE. 11-Years Graduation Rate and Time To Graduation Performance
Initial headcounts 2001 5,364 Average FTEs 2001-11 4,709Average Incoming 2001-11 1,574 Average incoming freshman 646Average Graduates 2001-11 1357 Freshmen/Total 41%Ending headcounts 2011 5,910 Graduates/incoming 86%Average Drop-offs 2001-11 167 Drop-off Rate 11%Average headcounts 2001-11 6,144 FTEs/HC 77%
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 11
Competing Edges and Process Competencies
Process Competencies
Customer Value Proposition
Stakeholders
Satisfaction
Value Chain
Performance
Flow Tim
e
Quality
Cost
Flex
ibili
ty
Customer Satisfactio
n
Financial Performanc
e
Expectations
Perceptions
Flow Tim
e
RT=IR = Throughput = 1574I = Population = 6144T =3.94 4 year life at CSUNFreshman 40% & Drop-off 10%TtD=0.25 TtGF & TtGT=0.5 TtGF0.4T+0.1(0.25T)+0.5(0.5T)=40.675T = 4T = 5.93 6
Flow Tim
e
Inventory
Th
rou
gh
pu
t
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 12
Flow Time: Time To Graduation
TtD/TtGF6.0 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.500.25 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.10.30 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.80.35 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.50.40 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.2
TtGT 0.45 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.0TtGF 0.50 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7
0.55 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.50.60 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.30.65 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.10.70 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 13
Flow Time at CSUN: Time To GraduationTable 1. % of Graduation Rate for the First Time freshmen (based on averages). Table 2. % of Graduation Rate for the First Time freshmen (Based on Upward Trends).
Fall Total Fall ≤ 4 years ≤ 5 years ≤ 6 years ≤ 7 years ≤ 8 years ≤ 9 years Regression Total Fall ≤ 4 years ≤ 5 years ≤ 6 years ≤ 7 years ≤ 8 years ≤ 9 years
1997 2568 3% 18% 32% 38% 42% 44% Slope (b0) 2296 0.034 0.178 0.317 0.385 0.415 0.420
1998 2286 6% 23% 36% 43% 46% 48% Intercept (b1) 149.49 0.009 0.018 0.015 0.015 0.017 0.025
1999 2602 7% 24% 36% 43% 47% 49% Coeff. Determ. (R2) 0.71 0.89 0.91 0.88 0.78 0.87 0.95
2000 2821 8% 25% 39% 46% 49% 52% p value (a) 0.0022 0.0001 0.0003 0.0017 0.0191 0.0206 0.0232
2001 3270 8% 26% 39% 46% 49% Regression 3791 13% 35% 47% 53% 59% 67%
2002 3662 8% 26% 39% 46%
2003 3595 10% 30% 43%
2004 2975 12% 33%
2005 3713 11%
2006 3690
Average 3118 8% 26% 38% 44% 47% 48%
4-year GR =13%, 9- year GR= 67%. Time to graduation, for those graduating in ≤ 9 years has µ = 6.3, σ = 2.6 years.
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 14
From 3 dimensional space of Quality-Cost-Time, to one dimentional space of Quality/Cost/TimeWe concluded the quality to cost for CSUN is 3 times of that of Stanford. It is reasonable if we assume that time to graduation at Stanford is 4 years. Therefore in the time to graduation dimension, Stanford performs 1.5 of CSUN. In that 0.5 extra time, student pay tuition, therefore if we map the three dimensional space of Q-C-T into one dimensional space of Q/C/T, that 3 of our pervious computations is now turn to 3/1.5 =2. However, in that 0.5 period, the students not only pay all their tuition fee, but also still are employed at a low rate, perhaps under 40 hours and perhaps lover benefits. So it is reasonable to assign a weight of 2 or even 3 to that 0.5. The Q/C/T of CSUN then turn into 1.5, and 1.2, respectively
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 15
Where is the Solution?
■ Better text books■ Revision of our teaching material■ Assignments to fill the gap between capability of our
students and requirements of our text books■ Hiring higher quality professors■ Replacing Problem solving with case studies■ Active learning, problem based learning, Peer Learning■ Increasing the utilization of our classrooms■ Replacing chairs and desks of the classrooms■ Add more Technology in classroom■ Ipad in our classroom
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 17
Rumi, the 13th Century Persian poet, and the teacher of Sufism, has a retelling of the story of the blind men and an elephant originated in India "The elephant in the dark".
■ Felt the elephant with his palm in the darkness. ■ If each had a candle, differences would disappear.
From Rumi that Muslim teacher of Sufism and Systems -thinking in 13th century to Eliahu Goldratt, an Israeli physicist in 20thTheory of constraints
■ An enterprise is a chain■ The chain is only as strong as its weakest link.
Systems Thinking; Elephant in the Dark
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 18
Theory of Constraints
Just like the links of a chain, the resources and learning processes at CSUN work together to generate value for the students and other stakeholders. A chain is as strong as its weakest link.
We need to refuses to accept current NA/SA as a constraint, and treat them as variables.1. Exploit the constraints2. Subordinate everything else to that constraint3. Elevate the Constraints4. When the constraint is relaxed, look for the next
constraint
Time, effort, and funds devoted to non-binding constraints are a waste of organizational resources.
What is the constraint?
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 19
Binding Constraints
Turn D and F students into C students. Or Turn A and B students into MS and PhD candidates. Unlike Sci., Eng. and Soc. Science at CSUN, COBAE is not known for MS and PhD.
PWP, MTS, MTO
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 20
Continuity
Lack of vertical and horizontal link between courses. When we want to create something new, we think of creating a new object. A system is composed of objects off course, but more importantly, what defines a system is the network of the interrelationships between the objects. There are about 400-500 cars in the US, let’s get the best component of each, for example the best engine, perhaps Rolls Royce, best transmission- perhaps Mercedes, the best X, the best Y, ……. Let’s put them together; it cannot even ride, because the links do not work. My OM course is vertically related toMATH103,MATH140, ECON160, BUS497. It is also horizontally related to FIN303. link creation.
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 21
Binding Constraints
Lack of Understanding the Requirements of Quantitative Courses. There are profound differences in the nature, learning tools, technology, and the requirements of quantitative vs. qualitative courses.
Lack of Understanding the Appropriateness of Online Courses. Assuming four rows of a matrix as freshman, sophomore, junior, and senior, and four columns of quantitative, close to quantitative, close to qualitative, and qualitative courses, directions of our future research is to analyze which of traditional, hybrid, online, and flipped classes is the strategic fit for each of the 16 elements of this matrix.
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 22
Scheduled Availability
■NPV of the direct financial costs of delayed graduation.
■NPV of economics and social costs of delayed graduation.
■Promotion/advertisement. Reduce working & leisure time.
■Improved time management■Changing the fee structure. Not the same fee for
12-21units, benefit of economy of scale, failure or low quality graduates.
■Centralization, e.g. Admission and Library processes. Intends to allocate the released
resources to more value-added■Pooling, e.g., Admission and
Records. ■Flipped Classroom. Deliver the
lectures online. Assign the class time to more value added activities.
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 23
Net Availability
Net-availability: the level of concentration during scheduled-availability. Surfing unrelated sites and text messaging in class are examples of net-availability detract.
I will have my cell phone laptop or tablet OFF except for reasons directly and fully related to SOM306 material.
I will not create any background noise or disturbance during lectures. Otherwise, after the first not, my class participation grade will be set to zero.
I understand the Student Core Values are: Respect, Honesty, Integrity, Commitment, and Responsibility.
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 24
Admissions & Records; Inverse Seasonality Relationship
Level of activitiesHigh
Records
Admissions
LowJul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Month
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 28
Academic Advisement Reform
■Use $9.7M in potential cost savings from e-Transcript and Master Auto Admit to:
■Hire more academic advisors ■ $70,000 annual salary/academic advisor■ 138 new academic advisors ($9.7M/$70K)■ CSUN gets 12 more academic advisors per year
■Provide advising services during evening hours
■Mandatory advisement for students with GPA < 3.0 every semester.
■Provide more workshop on DPR knowledge
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 30
Course Repetition Reduction
■Each (resident) student reduces course repetition by 1.2 semester units per semester.
■CSU saves $16.4 million per year
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 31
Competitive Space; Quality and Cost Efficiency
Cost Efficiency
Production of a Cartier Rolex watch and Asef’s Watch using exactly the same process competencies.
Qualit
y o
f R
aw
mate
rial and W
IP
■Physical segregation politically incorrect
■Honor Student Sessions not fit the schedule of all honors
■Virtual Segregation
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 32
Time to Graduation vs. VarietyVari
ety
Time to Graduation (TtG)
What % of honor and likely-honor students can take honor sessions ? (schedule conflict).
5 6 7 8 94
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 33
Retention Rate vs. VarietyVari
ety
Retention Rate (RR) 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%40%
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 34
Course Delivery System Matrix
■Traditional, Hybrid, Online, or Flipped■On the spectrum from pure qualitative to pure
quantitative, where the course is standing. Which of the 4 course delivery system is the strategic fit for this type of courses.
■Where the student is standing; FM, SM, JR, SR. Which of the 4 course delivery system is the strategic fit for this year in the program.
■On the spectrum from pure individual work to pure teamwork, where the course is standing. Which of the 4 course delivery system is the strategic fit for this type of course.
■On the spectrum from pure qualitative to pure quantitative, where the course is standing. What can Ipad do for this type of courses.
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 35
Flipped Classroom
longer spent on teaching the basic concepts, but on more value-added activities
Problem solving
Trouble
shoutin
g
Participation
Enhancement
Real w
orld A
pps
and D
iscussion
s
Sys
tem
s-th
inki
ng
Cre
ativ
e -
thin
king
Case studies Web-based Simulation
By delivering the lectures online using recorded screen captures, the students are empowered to stop, rewind, and Fast Forward the professor.
This is an excellent learning power. Class time is no
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 36
Flipped Classroom Has All the Competing Edges of Traditional, Hybrid, and Online Courses
■In order for a flipped classroom to outperform its substitutes it need to at least have all online and hybrid capabilities.
■Four competing edges of a successful course is clear, consistent, high expectations, just in time support, continual assessment (early feedback and understand secret of early effective warning system warning on performance and how to improve) , student engagement social engagement collaborative teaching
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 37
The Total Flipped Classroom System
Lecture Captures
Class Attendance,Participation, Engagement
Proctored Exams
Online Intermediate & Advanced Quizzes
Solved /Animated BasicAssignments
Learnin
g M
anagem
ent S
yste
m
Case Studies & Problem Based
Learning
Web-based Simulation Games
PowerPoint Slides
Solved /Animated Advanced Assignments
Textbook
Online Basic Quizzes
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 38
Quality
Cost
Flow Tim
e
Flex
ibili
ty
Flexibility of Processes vs. Quality of Row Material
■do not offer enough elective courses■for the required courses, students on long waiting lines
and beg their professors to enroll in a session fitting their schedule. They work 20-40 hrs
Flex
ibili
ty
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 39
CSUN. 11-Years Graduation Rate and Time To Graduation PerformanceCSUN First-Time
FreshmenFirst-Time Transfers
Total Incoming
Graduates Continuing Students
All Students
Net Retutning
Net Drop-Offs
All Students (FTEs)
2000 22,553
2001 3,302 3,405 6,707 4824 17,756 24,463 27 0 19,725
2002 3,675 3,122 6,797 5073 18,984 25,781 0 406 20,837
2003 3,610 2,726 6,336 4944 19,437 25,773 0 1,400 20,807
2004 2,979 2,671 5,650 5488 19,003 24,653 0 1,282 19,789
2005 3,720 3,754 7,474 5564 19,380 26,854 291 0 21,941
2006 3,695 3,833 7,528 5682 20,753 28,281 0 419 22,862
2007 4,130 3,989 8,119 6619 21,365 29,484 0 297 23,749
2008 4,625 3,652 8,277 6416 21,958 30,235 0 1,110 24,667
2009 4,203 3,692 7,895 6426 21,380 29,275 0 2,429 23,511
2010 5,195 4,472 9,667 6723 20,213 29,880 0 2,339 23,815
2011 5,269 4,917 10,186 6520 21,318 31,504 0 2,042 26,010Mean 4,037 3,658 7,694 5,844 20,141 27,395 28.91 1,065.82 22,519
Initial population 2001 22,553 Aggregate FTEs 2001-11 22,519
Average Incoming 2001-11 7,694 Average incoming freshman 4,037
Average Graduates 2001-11 5844 Freshmen/Total 52%
Ending population 2011 31,504 Graduates/incoming 76%
Average Drop-offs 2001-11 1,037 Drop-off Rate 13%
Average HCs 2001-11 27,835 FTEs/HC 81%
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 40
Meetings, Pounds of Sticky Notes
■ Meetings; how to improve something; Ex. Increasing GR and reducing TtG.
■ Sticky notes 10s of ideas; each writes a different prescription.
■ Each sticky note looking at the hill on its own horizon as the top of the mountain
■ Local View, Local Optimization, Sub-system optimization.
■ Global Send the students to China, Brazil, India….
■ Global Have a global view- Systems Thinking see the elephant
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 41
The University-Wide Event, Feb. 2014. “Enhancing the Academic Potential of our Students.” Solutions↓ Let students know we expect them to graduate; Address students from a holistic perspective; Mentor students; Help students connect the dots (don’t allow them to
experience the University as a fragmented bureaucracy;
Smile, say hello, look students in the eye, and ask they how their day is going;
Show students that you care (know and use their names; follow up if you know something happened to a student; be specific in praising students’ work; be responsive to student inquiries; encourage free-flow discussion in class, including opposing views);
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 42
The University-Wide Event, Feb. 2014. “Enhancing the Academic Potential of our Students.” Solutions↓ Understand students come to CSUN with some bad
habits; Let students know not only what services are available
to help them but also how to access and use them; Talk about the needs and benefits of simple reading,
critical thinking, and observing deadlines; Acknowledge the power differential students feel with
us; Provide opportunities for student reflection; Share your love of learning; Reflect on how you deal with your frustration with
students; Explore options with students (listen to their goals and
reassure them); Don’t give up on a struggling student;
Ardavan Asef-Vaziri, SOM, COBAE, CSUN 2014 43
The University-Wide Event, Feb. 2014. “Enhancing the Academic Potential of our Students.” Solutions↓ Establish a sense of belonging to the campus; Come to class prepared and enthusiastic about
teaching; Engage students through active learning (focus on
skills, not just content); Incorporate technology in the classrooms.
If these are the solutions then why we are riding full
speed to online. These are not the solutions. Online is not the solution.