Anticipation 2015 - TrentoAnticipation 2015 - Trento Carlos Alvarez Carlos Alvarez PereiraPereira
Untying the GridlocksUntying the Gridlocks--
Changing our Hermeneutics to Changing our Hermeneutics to Bifurcate for GoodBifurcate for Good
Carlos Alvarez PereiraCarlos Alvarez Pereira
First International Conference on AnticipationFirst International Conference on AnticipationTrento, 5-7 November 2015Trento, 5-7 November 2015
Anticipation 2015 - TrentoAnticipation 2015 - Trento Carlos Alvarez Carlos Alvarez PereiraPereira
AnticipatioAnticipationn
“The Guardian” 2 September 2014
“Limits to Growth” was right. New research shows we're nearing collapse.
Four decades after the book was published, Limit to Growth’s forecasts have been vindicated by new Australian research. Expect the early stages of global collapse to start appearing soon.
Anticipation 2015 - TrentoAnticipation 2015 - Trento Carlos Alvarez Carlos Alvarez PereiraPereira
T. Robert Malthus > “An Essay on the Principle of Population” (1798)Charles Fourier > “Détérioration matérielle de la planète” (1821)Pierre Leroux > Circular economy (1843)John Stuart Mill > “The Principles of Political Economy” (1848)Eugène Huzar > “La Fin du monde par la science” (1855)George Perkins Marsh > “Man and Nature” (1872)Augustin Mouchot > Solar collector (1866), Solar steam machine (1869)Justus von Liebig > “The natural laws of Agriculture” (1862)Stanley Jevons > “The Coal Question” (1866)Ernst Haeckel > Ecology (1867)Alfred Marshall > “The Future of the Working Classes” (1873)Thorstein Veblen > “The Theory of the Leisure Class” (1899)Tramways in US cities (1900-1935)Ernst Friedrich > Plunder economy (1904)Ludwig Klages > “Man and Earth” (1913)Frederick Soddy > “Cartesian Economics” (1921)
Ref. Christophe Bonneuil, Jean-Baptiste Fressoz “L´Évènement Anthropocène”, 2013
AnticipatioAnticipationn
Anticipation 2015 - TrentoAnticipation 2015 - Trento Carlos Alvarez Carlos Alvarez PereiraPereira
Ref. Christophe Bonneuil, Jean-Baptiste Fressoz “L´Évènement Anthropocène”, 2013
Stuart Chase > “The Tragedy of Waste” (1925)Vladimir Vernadski > “The biosphere” (1926)Lewis Mumford > “Technics and Civilization” (1934)Fairfield Osborn > “The Plundered Planet” (1948)Maria Telkes > Solar house with 75% self-sufficiency (1948)Roger Revelle, Hans E. Suess > CO2 increase in the atmosphere (1957)Hannah Arendt > “The Human Condition” (1958)Rachel Carson > “Silent Spring” (1962)Radovan Richta > “The civilization at the crossroad” (1966)Nicolae Georgescu-Roegen > “Entropy Law & the Economic Process” (1971)Crawford S. Holling > Ecological resilience (1973)James Lovelock > Gaia Hypothesis (1974)Jimmy Carter > Anti-consumerist speech at TV (1979)Howard & Elizabeth Odum > “Energy Basis for the Man and Nature” (1981)Elinor Ostrom > “Governing the Commons” (1990)
AnticipatioAnticipationn
Anticipation 2015 - TrentoAnticipation 2015 - Trento Carlos Alvarez Carlos Alvarez PereiraPereira
Where is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge? Where is the knowledge we have lost in information? T.S. Eliot (1888-1965)
Anticipation 2015 - TrentoAnticipation 2015 - Trento Carlos Alvarez Carlos Alvarez PereiraPereira
Gridlocked…Gridlocked…
Anticipation 2015 - TrentoAnticipation 2015 - Trento Carlos Alvarez Carlos Alvarez PereiraPereira
Gridlocked…Gridlocked…(at high speed)(at high speed)
Anticipation 2015 - TrentoAnticipation 2015 - Trento Carlos Alvarez Carlos Alvarez PereiraPereira
MetabolismMetabolism
PurposesPurposes
CultureCulture
WillWill
ThinkingThinking
VisionVision
DepredationDepredation
Financial fantasiesFinancial fantasies
Consumerist Consumerist selfishnessselfishness
DisaggregationDisaggregation
Noise, entertainmentNoise, entertainment
Unlimited growthUnlimited growth
High-speed gridlockHigh-speed gridlockss
Anticipation 2015 - TrentoAnticipation 2015 - Trento Carlos Alvarez Carlos Alvarez PereiraPereira
Framework of interpretation Framework of interpretation
Us Time
Them Environmt
SocialForms
Anticipation 2015 - TrentoAnticipation 2015 - Trento Carlos Alvarez Carlos Alvarez PereiraPereira
MetabolismMetabolismDepredation vs Depredation vs Finite resourcesFinite resources
PurposesPurposesFinancial fantasies Financial fantasies
vs Human vs Human wellbeingwellbeing
CulturalCulturalSelfish consumerism vs Selfish consumerism vs
Sufficiency and creativitySufficiency and creativity
WillWillDisaggregation vs Disaggregation vs
TransformationTransformation
ThinkingThinkingNoise vs New ParadigmsNoise vs New Paradigms
VisionVision Endless growth vs ??Endless growth vs ??
Us Time
Them Environmt
SocialForms
Framework of interpretation Framework of interpretation
Anticipation 2015 - TrentoAnticipation 2015 - Trento Carlos Alvarez Carlos Alvarez PereiraPereira
“Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.
It contains within it two key concepts:
· The concept of 'needs', in particular, the essential needs of the world's poor, to which overriding priority should be given;
And
· The idea of limitations imposed by the state of technology and social organization on the environment's ability to meet present and future needs.”
Brundtland Report, World Commission on Environment and Development, United Nations Organization, 1987
AspirationsAspirations – Sustainable – Sustainable DevelopmentDevelopment
Anticipation 2015 - TrentoAnticipation 2015 - Trento Carlos Alvarez Carlos Alvarez PereiraPereira
FinitudFinitud
Anticipation 2015 - TrentoAnticipation 2015 - Trento Carlos Alvarez Carlos Alvarez PereiraPereira
Anticipation 2015 - TrentoAnticipation 2015 - Trento Carlos Alvarez Carlos Alvarez PereiraPereira
From today´s From today´s Framework…Framework…
Anticipation 2015 - TrentoAnticipation 2015 - Trento Carlos Alvarez Carlos Alvarez PereiraPereira
MetabolismMetabolism
PurposesPurposes
CulturalCultural
WillWill
ThinkingThinking
VisionVision
Us Time
Them Environmt
SocialForms
……which creates gridlocks…which creates gridlocks…
DemocraticImperative
EcologicalImperative
RentierImperative
Anticipation 2015 - TrentoAnticipation 2015 - Trento Carlos Alvarez Carlos Alvarez PereiraPereira
environmental integrity
social inclusion
human wellbeing
- a liveable climate- ecological balance- air, water and soil quality- protection of biodiversity- intrinsic values of nature
- global equity- political equality- shared interest- common action- community participation
- poverty elimination - livelihood security
- health and education- peace and nonviolence- economic development
SUSTAINABILITY
Ref. Andy Stirling “From Knowledge Economy to Innovation Democracy”, Nov 2014
……to a more Balanced to a more Balanced oneone
Anticipation 2015 - TrentoAnticipation 2015 - Trento Carlos Alvarez Carlos Alvarez PereiraPereira
The Adventure of BifurcationThe Adventure of Bifurcation
Complexity, diversity, Complexity, diversity, new armoniesnew armonies
Collapse, violence, Collapse, violence, miserymisery
Anticipation 2015 - TrentoAnticipation 2015 - Trento Carlos Alvarez Carlos Alvarez PereiraPereira
Which words do we have to sow, for the gardens of the world to blossom again?
Jeanine Salesse (b 1940)
Anticipation 2015 - TrentoAnticipation 2015 - Trento Carlos Alvarez Carlos Alvarez PereiraPereira
HolisticsHolistics
Anticipation 2015 - TrentoAnticipation 2015 - Trento Carlos Alvarez Carlos Alvarez PereiraPereira
Walker, there is no way, one makes the way by walking Antonio Machado (1875-1939)
Anticipation 2015 - TrentoAnticipation 2015 - Trento Carlos Alvarez Carlos Alvarez PereiraPereira
HolisticsHolistics
Another world is not only possible, she is on her way. On a quiet day, I can hear her breathing. Arundhati Roy (b.1961)
Anticipation 2015 - TrentoAnticipation 2015 - Trento Carlos Alvarez Carlos Alvarez PereiraPereira
Carlos Álvarez PereiraCarlos Álvarez [email protected]@innaxis.org
www.innaxis.www.innaxis.orgorg
Anticipation 2015 - TrentoAnticipation 2015 - Trento Carlos Alvarez Carlos Alvarez PereiraPereira
NIC Reports for 2020 and 2025 are NIC Reports for 2020 and 2025 are contradictorycontradictory
Anticipation 2015 - TrentoAnticipation 2015 - Trento Carlos Alvarez Carlos Alvarez PereiraPereira
GridlockedGridlocked
Anticipation 2015 - TrentoAnticipation 2015 - Trento Carlos Alvarez Carlos Alvarez PereiraPereira
Framework of interpretation Framework of interpretation
Us Time
Them Environmt
SocialForms