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Angus Council
Housing Need & Demand Assessment
Stakeholder Consultation23rd February 2010
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Aims of Session• To present outcomes of the Housing
Need & Demand Assessment the requirement for affordable housing the requirement for market housing
• To test findings against stakeholder knowledge and experience
• To examine options to meet housing need
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Agenda
10.15 – 10.30 Introduction/Welcome10.30 – 11.00 HNADA Study Findings11.00 – 11.15 Coffee 11.15 – 12.00 Focus Groups: Key Strategic
Policy Interventions & Meeting Housing Need and Demand
12.00 – 12.15 Focus Group Feedback12.15 – 12.45 Next Steps12.45 Close of Session
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HNADA Objectives
1. To provide an assessment of future housing needs & demands for defined housing market areas.
2. To provide reliable information to support the LHS and Development Planning framework
3. To provide an assessment of type, size and tenure imbalances across the defined geographical area
4. To propose housing supply targets
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Housing Market Areas
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Housing Market Areas
HMA Settlements
North Angus Montrose, Brechin, Edzell, Ferryden and Hillside
South Angus Monifieth, Carnoustie, Newtyle, Monikie, Wellbank, Tealing, Birkhill/Muirhead, Liff and Auchterhouse.
East Angus Arbroath, Friockheim, Carmyllie and Inverkeilor
West Angus Forfar, Kirriemuir, Kingennie and Letham
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Assessing the Requirement for
Affordable Housing
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Plus
Current NeedX (a quota)
Newly Arising Need
Minus
Equals
Supply ofAffordable
Housing
Net Shortfall/Surplus
Affordable Housing Need Calculation
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Current Need: Unsuitable Housing• Homeless or with insecure tenure: 175• Concealed Households: 219• Overcrowding: 779• Special Needs: 3,194• Poor Condition: 428• Harassment: 127
Current Need = 4,922
Affordable Housing Need Calculation
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Total Current Need – Eliminate:• ‘In situ solutions’:
Provision of aids/adaptations/support = 680 Net ‘Special Need’ figure = 2,514
• Net ‘Current Need’ figure = 4,242Then eliminate• % can meet need in private housing market
52% households can meet market entry price
Net Current Need = 2,206
Affordable Housing Need Calculation
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Newly Arising Need• New household formation: 752
Eliminate new formers who can afford to meet market entry level prices (32%)
• Existing households falling into need: 724 Change in household circumstances including
annual flow of homeless households
Newly Arising Estimate = 1,235
Affordable Housing Need Calculation
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Affordable Housing Supply• Affordable housing relets: 1,075• Committed new affordable supply: 50 • Turnover net of units taken out of
management: 0 demolitions
• Annual Supply Estimate = 1,125
Affordable Housing Need Calculation
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Interim Calculation Estimate• Current need = 4,922
Net current need = 2,206 Net annual current need = 221 (10 years)
• Annual newly arising need = 1,235• Annual total need = 1,456• Annual affordable supply = 1,125• Estimated shortfall = -331• 10 year Est. shortfall = -3,310
Affordable Housing Need Calculation
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Interim Calculation Estimate• Current need = 4,922
Net current need = 2,206 Net annual current need = 221 (10 years)
• Annual newly arising need = 1,103• Annual total need = 1,324• Annual affordable supply = 1,125• Estimated shortfall = -199• 10 year Est. shortfall = -1,990
Affordable Housing Need Low Formation Scenario
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Depending on the rate of household formation the annual shortfall in Angus ranges from 199 to 331
This results in a year 10 shortfall of between 1,990 and 3,310
Key Message
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Disaggregated Calculation for
Affordable Housing
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Projecting Future Need
Aggregated Housing Needs Analysis:– assumes the current profile of housing supply can
meet the type of need identified– assumes need is met over 5 year period
Disaggregated Analysis:− determines if supply is ‘fit for purpose’− detailed match of households to homes by size,
area, property type and tenure− assesses if annual need is met by supply and
extent to which backlog can be reduced− identifies length of time to address backlog− provides detailed profile of housing shortfall/
surplus to inform strategic planning
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Matched to
Residual Supply
Residual Backlog
Annual Newly Arising Need
Area
Size
Type
Annual Supply
Area
Size
Type
Backlog Housing Need
Area
Size
Type
Projected Forward Over Time Until Eliminated
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Model Overview
•Disaggregated Methodology•Model Assumptions
BacklogNewly Arising NeedSupply
•Model Outputs•Key Questions
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Base Assumptions• The model is based on the 3
components of the aggregated HNADA calculation Backlog figure Newly arising need figure Supply figure
• 10 year projections model• Data input by HMA, Size, Type
• 4 Housing Market Areas North HMA (Brechin & Montrose), East HMA (Arbroath), South HMA (Carnoustie, Monifieth & Sidlaws), West HMA (Forfar, Kirriemuir, Angus Glens)
• Affordability Outcomes applied by HMA
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Disaggregated Outcomes Key Outcomes
• Year 1: 2,407 households have unmet need• Year 5: 3,111 households have unmet need• Year 10: 4,132 households have unmet
need
Headlines at Year 5• Shortfall of affordable housing highest in
South (-1,742) & West (-1,043) HMA’s• Shortfall of affordable housing greatest in 4
bedroom properties: (-1,174) (38%)• 74% of shortfall is in General Needs housing• 26% of shortfall is in Special Needs housing
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Unmet Need for Affordable Housing
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Unmet Need for Affordable Housing by Area
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Unmet Need for Affordable Housing by Type
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Unmet Need for Affordable Housing by Size
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Low Formation Scenario Disaggregated
Outcomes Key Outcomes
• Year 1: 2,175 households have unmet need• Year 5: 2,413 households have unmet need• Year 10: 2,854 households have unmet
need
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Taking account of size, type and area mismatches and depending on the rate of household formation the year 10 shortfall in Angus ranges from 2,854 to 4,132
Key Message
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Assessing the Requirement for Market Housing
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Market Housing Requirement Methodology
Annual Inward Migration
Market Entry Level
Current Need for Market Housing
Mid-Market Properties
Upper End of Market
Newly Arising Need for Market Housing
Annual Internal Demand
Market Supply
Affordability Analysis
Total Need & Demand for Market Housing
Market Entry Level
Mid-Market Properties
Upper End of Market
Match Need & Demand to Supply
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Market Housing Requirement
Clear Shortfalls in Housing Q1&2• Relates to properties below £129,950 • Total Shortfall Year 1: -977• Shortfall over 10 Years: -8,276
East North South West
Year 1 -196 -285 -253 -244
Year 5 -943 -1,378 -1,234 -1,186
Year 10 -1,585 -2,385 -2,218 -2,087
-3,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
Quartile 1& 2 : Cumulative Need by LA Area, Yr 1,5,10
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Market Housing Requirement
Clear Surpluses in Housing Q3&4• Relates to properties £193,750 and above • Total Surplus Year 1: +154• Shortfall over 10 Years: +3,030
East North South West
Year 1 64 107 -66 49
Year 5 356 578 -302 281
Year 10 1,012 1,526 -356 848
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000Quartile 3-4 : Cumulative Need by LA Area: Yr 1,5,10
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Market Housing – Reduced Demand
Clear Shortfalls in Housing Q1&2• Relates to properties below £129,950 • Total Shortfall Year 1: -831• Shortfall over 10 Years: -6,812
East North South West
Year 1 -156 -246 -221 -208
Year 5 -744 -1,187 -1,073 -1,006
Year 10 -1,188 -2,003 -1,896 -1,726
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
Quartile 1& 2 : Cumulative Need by LA Area, Yr 1,5,10
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Market Housing - Reduced Demand
Clear Surpluses in Housing Q3&4• Relates to properties £193,750 and above • Total Surplus Year 1: +206• Shortfall over 10 Years: +3,554
East North South West
Year 1 77 117 -49 61
Year 5 423 627 -214 339
Year 10 1,147 1,623 -179 963
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Quartile 3&4 : Cumulative Need by LA Area, Yr 1,5,10
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Total need = undersupply of lower quartile properties (-8,276) matched against oversupply of higher quartile properties (3,030) = -5,246
Key Message
Total need (Reduced Demand) = undersupply of lower quartile properties (-6,812) matched against oversupply of higher quartile properties (3,554) = -3,258
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Key Message
The Total Requirement for Market housing within Angus over the next 10 years will range from -3,258 to -5,246
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HNADA Recommendations
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Recommendations• The number of households in need does
NOT equal number of units to be delivered• Need could be met through range of
interventions programmed though LHS: developing partnerships with the private
rented sector; tackling private sector disrepair; using assistive technology to promote
independence in older people; tackling and preventing homelessness; making better use of the current affordable
and private stock; developing flexible tenure options; and increasing housing supply.
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Tackling Homelessness
2012 Target
Local Need
Providing Housing Support
Assessment
Local Need
Fuel Poverty Strategy
Climate Change
Challenge
Local Actions
Private SectorHousing
Enforcement
SOA
Local Duty
Meeting Housing Need & Demand
Housing Supply Target
Housing MarketArea Evidence
Local Delivery
Role of PRS in Meeting Need
Achieving Sustainable Communities
SHIP
Local Housing Strategy
Investment DirectionDevelopment Plan Link
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Recommendations
• AC should prepare an action plan quantify potential impact of each
intervention set targets for projected impact on overall
level of unmet need
• Residual need should be starting point for supply target setting
• This process should consider land capacity development industry capacity availability of development funding corporate vision: Strategic Outcome Agreement