Agriculture, Poverty Climate ChangeStrategy and Action
Md Shamsuddoha
On the Occasion of Celebrating 25 Years of PKSF
Presentation Outline
Poverty & Agriculture1
Climate Change Implication in Agriculture Sector and Food Security
2
Other Challenges3
Future Strategies4
Poverty Reduction: The Development Priority
Well-known from various national official document
- Poverty reduction through higher growth and employment is the key goal
Poverty incidence fallen over time but is about 33-35% i.e., at least 50 mn suffering from hunger and food insecurity
Poverty fall slow due to still low rate of growth – > 6% for several years now, but still far short of at least 8-9% necessary for fast poverty reduction expected employment generation
Agriculture in Growth and Development
Share in GDP in 20011/12 only 20-21 % - fallen from 25-26% in 2000/01; More than half of labour force still in agriculture
Value addition was Tk 68 thousand crore in 08/09
More than one half of agricultural value added from crop cultivation
Paddy main crop: value added 63% of all crops – next important crop is potato
Growth in agriculturecompared to other sectors (’97 – ’08)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Annu
al rat
e of g
rowth
(%)
Ag and its sub-sectors showed lower rates of growth than other sectors
Ag rate depends on crop growth rate
6
Fluctuations in Growth Rates
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Per
cent
cha
nge
over
pre
v ye
arAgriculture Crops Livestock Forestry Fishery
Crops particularly show
ed m
ore volatility
7
Nature of rice cultivation 1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1977-78
1979-80
1981-82
1983-84
1985-86
1987-88
1989-90
1991-92
1993-94
1995-96
1997-98
1999-00
2001-02
2003-04
2005-06
2007-08
Mn
acre
s
Aman-ac Aus-ac Boro-ac
Increasing dominance of dry period, irrigated boro at expense of aus – stagnant position of aman in rice area
8
Volatility of rice output
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1978-79
1980-81
1982-83
1984-85
1986-87
1988-89
1990-91
1992-93
1994-95
1996-97
1998-99
2000-01
2002-03
2004-05
2006-07
2008-09
Perc
ent c
hang
e yea
r on y
ear
Total-p Aman-p Boro-p
Both aman and boro output volatile – but weather-dependent aman shows neg changes while boro’s are positive changes
Contribution of Potato
• Area and output both have grown
• Stagnation during eighties followed by 8-9% growth rate of output since mid 1990s
• Second-most important crop in terms of value added
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Th ac
res
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Th m
t
Acre Output
Pattern and Type of Production
• Mainly marginal and small farm based (88%)
• Land alienation for several reasons incl non-ag uses
• Rising man-land ratio
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
Pers
ons
per a
cre
Food Security Challenges in Bangladesh
Persistent challenges
decreasing land,
environmental (soil) degradation,
increasing population,
household level food insecurity,
widening consumption & income inequality
Challenges Crop Production and Food Security
Emerging challenges
Climate change impacts
Salinity increase and submergence in the south and south-west
• Uneven temperature stresses and rain fall
• Drought in the north and north-west
• Increased frequency/intensity of natural disasters
World food market volatility/uncertainty & Global Recession
Impacts of climate change: Broader Scenario
Climate Change Impacts: Broader Scenario
Average temperature changed
Frequency and intensity of natural disasters increased
Salinity intrusion increased
Decline of precipitation resulted droughts
Extinction of plant and animal species- loss of biodiversity
Sea-level rise by one meter in the current century, likely to:
one third of the country’s land under threat of salt water inundation; loss of livelihoods of 40 million people; 20 million might need relocation by 2050
Surface Temp Increased
CYCLONE Frequency 25 years trend: Previously, we faced 5.48
storms in a year now 7.94 storms in a year
Number of hot
and rainy days
Increased
Salinity Intrusion
Sea level rise will cause salinity intrusion through rivers and estuaries
In the rainy season saline water ingress to 10 % of country’s area, in the dry
season it reaches to 40 %area even
Figure shows that 0.5 meter sea level rise
will cause saline water intrusion in many fresh water areas
Salinity Intrusion
Sea Level Rise and Changes in Precipitation
Year Sea Level Rise (cm)
Temperate Rise ( oC )
% of Changes in precipitation( base 1990)
2030 30 0.7 and 1.3 rises respectively in monsoon and winter
3% less in winter and 11 percent more in monsoon
2050 50 1.1 and 1.3 rises respectively in monsoon and winter
37% less in winter and 28 percent more in monsoon
Decade-wise occurrence of cyclonic storms and the number of population affected in Bangladesh, 1901-2007
3 2 3 1 3 5
17 18
25
48
29
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1901-
10
1911-
20
1921-
30
1931-
40
1941-
50
1951-
60
1961-
70
1971-
80
1981-
90
1991-
00
2000-
07
Total occurrence Population affected (million)
Expon. (Total occurrence)
Increased of Disaster Prevalence: CYCLONE
Increased Prevalence of Disasters
Slow Onset Sudden Onset
Dense Fog
Drought
Salinity Ingress
Erratic Rainfall
Excess Rainfall
Monsoon Flood
River Erosion
Strom and Hail
Tidal Flood
Tropical Cyclone
Loss and Damage: New issue of debate
• Crop: – Rice production from 2.71% in 2005 to 2.5% by 2050
– Yield reduction: IPCC, 2007: 32% wheat, 8% rice; Basak, 2010: 1.5%, 2.5%, 4.4% and 5.4% for 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively;
Dasgupta.S, 2011: 10-year return period cyclone would damage 50 percent of yield, resulting in US$788.83 million of additional damage caused by climate change by 2050
• Fish: affect physiology and behavior, alter the growth rate, development, reproductive capacity, migration
• Livestock: Affect feed and fodder production/stock
CC Impacts on Major Sector: Agriculture
• Loss of Agri-GDP/ Economic loss:
– Direct annual cost to the national economy of disasters in the last 10 years estimated to be [damage and loss of production] 0.5 and 1.0 % of GDP
– Agricultural GDP is projected to be 3.1 percent lower each year ($36 billion in lost value-added) and total GDP $129 billion lower due to climate change over the 45-year period 2005–50, WB (2008)
CC Impacts on Major Sector: Agriculture
CC impact on potato
• Generally thought to be +ve in temperate climate due longer growing period, although planting date may be advanced by about 2 weeks
• In India, studies indicate opposite – 3-14% decline are expected by 2020 and 2050
• Date of planting due to higher temperature may have to be asvanced or delayed depending on location and agro-ecology
• Pest attacks more likely with rising temperature
• In general adaptation demands more heat-tolerant and pest-resistant varieties
Other Challenges
Food Security: A Conceptual Framework
CONCEPT market based FS comparative advantage in production
REFORMliberalization of food import marketReducing State
Support
RESULT: weaken the subsistence economy based food security
FOOD SECURITY
About food Production
Agenda of States and UN
Physical and economic access
Promotes unfair trading aid politics and dumping.
Conceptual Framework: Food Security:
IT’S Doesn’t Consider-------
Local agricultural production and production system.
Farmers right to produce food and consumers rights to consumption and purchase
The right of nations to protect themselves from cheap agricultural and food imports (dumping).
Link agricultural prices to production costs
FAO’s Committee on World Food Security defined;
‘all people at all times have both the physical and economic
access to the basic food they need’.
Recognized three conditions ;
Adequacy of food supply or availability,
Stability of supply
Access to food at the HH level, and by the poor.
Food price hiking and
State of Food Security in Crisis
Retail prices are up..... ( post cyclone SIRD prdiod during 2008-2009)
18 % in China, 17 % in Sri Lanka, 10 % & more through out the Lt America & Russia, Around 20 percent in Bangladesh
Among the agricultural commodities;
Dairy products are as much as 200 %Maize prices hit a 10 year high in Feb 2007, Wheat is up 50 %, Rice 16 % and Poultry 10 %.
Causes of
Food Price Hiking
Theoretically the market economics says;
‘the price of any commodity rises when its supply fall off or become uncertain,
Myth
technologies helped to increase global rice output steadily from about 254 m tones in 1965 to 598 m tones in 2000.
This growth rate has been declining since 2000............... indicating the need for additional support to increase the productivity of rice
Causes of
lowering production
Worryingly,
India to plant 140,000 sq km bio-fuel crops,
Brazil 1.2 m sq km.
S Africa 4 m sq km of land is being touted as the future Middle East of bio-fuels,
Indonesia to increase its palm oil area from 64, 000 sq km now to 2.6 m sq km in 2050 for energy.
Shifting paradigm of demand side
agri-commodities are considering as the potential raw materials for bio-fuels
Myth: The fuel value of a commodity exceeds its value as food
the price of oil is setting the price of food
Causes of
lowering production
Study Says; In 12 Asian by 2020 consumption will be increased......
beef by 50 %,pork 30 %chicken 40 % and diary 55 %.
Feed Conversion Ratio;Chicken, 2:1Pork 4:1 Beef 7:1
Shifting paradigm of demand side
Grain for cattle feed is increasing as globally the number of meat-eaters is growing
Additional demand for feed grain by 2020 will be 350 to 450 million tones-a 20 to 30 increase on global present production.
CONCERN
Export led Shrimp Monoculture and Corporate Control on Farming System Demand for shrimp increase 1- 5 % per year
Area under production is 200,000 ha compared to 55500 ha in 1998
ecologically, socially and economically destructive.
Disappearance of 21,020.45 acre mangrove forest in Cox’s Bazaar .
Export Led Monoculture: Bangladesh
Market Never Considers the Social &Economical Impact of Food Production
Future Strategies
Future Strategies….
Bangladesh roadmap for addressing climate change impact on food security
Food security
area
Programme
number
Title
AV 1 Sustainable and resilient agriculture through integrated research and extension
AV/AC 2 Sustainable water management and infrastructure for irrigation purposes
AV/AC 3 Adaption to climate change in the fisheries and livestock sectors
AV/AC 4 Reducing vulnerability to natural disasters and prices shocks: preparedness, early warning and awareness
Bangladesh roadmap for addressing climate change impact on food security
Food security
area
Programme
number
Title
AC 5 Livelihoods protection and promotion in the context of climate change
AC 6 Climate change adaptive public food operation and management system
U 7 Adaptation in health sector: community action for malnutrition amidst climate change
U 8 Water and sanitation programme in climate vulnerable areas: control and management of food safety and quality
Thank You All