Transcript
Page 1: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

NACM Heartland MeetingDes Moines, Iowa

Mar. 6, 2014

Chad HartAssociate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist

[email protected]

Page 2: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Prices vs. Costs

Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre

Page 3: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Prices vs. Costs

Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre

Page 4: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Prices and Recessions

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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Crop Prices for the Next Decade

Source: USDA-ERS

Page 6: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

LivestockCrops

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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Net Farm Income

Page 8: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Land Values

Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

Page 9: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Land Values – Log Scale

Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

Page 10: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Land Values and Income

Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

Page 11: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Land Values and Income

Source: Mike Duffy, ISU

Page 12: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U.S. Corn Supply and Use2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Area Planted (mil. acres) 88.2 91.9 97.2 95.4 92.0

Yield (bu./acre) 152.8 147.2 123.4 158.8 165.3

Production (mil. bu.) 12,447 12,360 10,780 13,925 13,985

Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,708 1,128 989 821 1,481

Imports (mil. bu.) 28 29 162 35 25

Total Supply (mil. bu.) 14,182 13,517 11,932 14,781 15,491

Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 4,795 4,557 4,335 5,300 5,400

Ethanol (mil. bu.) 5,019 5,000 4,648 5,000 5,000

Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 1,407 1,428 1,396 1,400 1,430

Exports (mil. bu.) 1,834 1,543 731 1,600 1,550

Total Use (mil. bu.) 13,055 12,528 11,111 13,300 13,380

Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,128 989 821 1,481 2,111

Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 5.18 6.22 6.89 4.50 3.90

Source: USDA-WAOB for 2010-13

Page 13: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.4 75.0 77.2 76.5 79.5

Yield (bu./acre) 43.5 41.9 39.8 43.3 45.2

Production (mil. bu.) 3,329 3,094 3,034 3,289 3,550

Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 151 215 169 141 150

Imports (mil. bu.) 14 16 36 30 15

Total Supply (mil. bu.) 3,495 3,325 3,239 3,459 3,715

Crush (mil. bu.) 1,648 1,703 1,689 1,700 1,725

Seed & Residual (mil. bu.) 130 88 90 99 105

Exports (mil. bu.) 1,501 1,365 1,320 1,510 1,600

Total Use (mil. bu.) 3,280 3,155 3,099 3,309 3,430

Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 215 169 141 150 285

Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 11.30 12.50 14.40 12.70 9.65

Source: USDA-WAOB for 2010-13

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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Yields

Source: USDA-NASS

Top: 2013 YieldBottom: Change from 2012Units: Bushels/acre

Page 15: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Yields

Source: USDA-NASS

Top: 2013 YieldBottom: Change from 2012Units: Bushels/acre

Page 16: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production

Source: USDA-WAOB

Page 17: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production

Source: USDA-WAOB

Page 18: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Hog Crush Margin

Source: ISU Extension

The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futuresCorn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig

Page 19: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Cattle Crush Margin

Source: ISU Extension

The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head

Page 20: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U.S. Meat Production & Prices

Source: USDA-WAOB

Page 21: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Shifts

Source: USDA-FAS

Page 22: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Sales

Source: USDA-FAS

Page 23: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Sales

Source: USDA-FAS

Page 24: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soy Export Shifts

Source: USDA-FAS

Page 25: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Page 26: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of EconomicsSource: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

Page 27: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Corn Futures

Source: CME Group, 3/5/2014

4.64 4.62 4.57

Page 28: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Soybean Futures

Source: CME Group, 3/5/2014

13.04

11.47

10.91

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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2013/14 Crop Prices

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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2014/15 Crop Margins

Page 31: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of EconomicsSource: droughtmonitor.unl.edu

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Extension and Outreach/Department of EconomicsSource: NOAA-CPC

3-Month Temperature Outlook

Page 33: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of EconomicsSource: NOAA-CPC

3-Month Precipitation Outlook

Page 34: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thoughts for 2014 and BeyondSupply/demand concerns

Demand rebounding? Yes, so far, so goodAcreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go?Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term

2013/14

USDA

2014/15

USDA

Unofficial

2013/14

Futures

(3/5/14)

2014/15

Futures

(3/5/14)

Corn $4.50 $3.90 $4.64 $4.62

Soybeans $12.70 $9.65 $13.04 $11.47

Page 35: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Markets

Source: USDA

Page 36: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Arable Land

Page 37: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Farm Bill: Old vs. New Direct Payments (DP) Countercyclical

Payments (CCP) Marketing Loans (LDP) Revenue

Countercyclical Payments (ACRE)

Countercyclical Payments (PLC)

Marketing Loans (LDP) Revenue

Countercyclical Payments (ARC)

New programs, but they have strong similarities to previous programs

Page 38: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Two WavesFirst wave: Choice on base acreage and

yield updatingProbably occurs June-July timeframe

Second wave: Choice on farm bill programsProbably Sept-OctHarvest the crop and farm bill at the same time

Page 39: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Producer ChoiceHave one-time choice between:

PLC or ARC (can pick by commodity)If ARC is chosen, pick between county and

individual coverageIf individual coverage is chosen, must be taken for

all covered commodities on the farm

2014-2018 crop years

Page 40: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

PLC vs. CCP and DP

Page 41: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Revenue ProgramsARC-County ARC-Individual

Benchmark revenue

5-yr OA county yield * 5-yr OA MYA price

Sum across crops of [5-yr OA (farm yield * MYA price) *crop acreage]

Actual crop revenue

County yield * Max(MYA price or loan rate)

Sum across crops of [Farm production * Max(MYA price or loan rate)] / Total planted acres of all covered crops

Revenue guarantee

86% of benchmark 86% of benchmark

Think of ARC-County as crop-by-cropThink of ARC-Individual as whole farm

Page 42: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO)An additional policy to cover “shallow losses”

Shallow loss = part of the deductible on the producer’s underlying crop insurance policy

SCO has a county-level payment trigger

Indemnities are paid when the county experiences losses greater than 14%

Premium subsidy: 65%

Starts in 2015

Can’t have ARC and SCO together

Page 43: Ag Cycles, Current Crop Markets and the Farm Bill

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thank you for your time!

Any questions?

My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/

Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/

Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/


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