After 20 Years – and 10 Years More
Development of Global Aquaculture Seen from a
Danish Perspective
By Karl Iver Dahl-MadsenVicepresident of the Danish Academy
of Future ResearchTo FAME, June-05
Anybody Remember?
From February 1986 What did we (I) say
at that time? What really
happened? And what about the
next 10 years?
Development Program for Danish Aquaculture
What did FAO forecast
Global Produktion t/år
0
5.000.000
10.000.000
15.000.000
20.000.000
25.000.000
30.000.000
35.000.000
40.000.000
45.000.000
50.000.000
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
In 1984 FAO said 26 mio. tons/år in year 2000
FAO
Trout in Freshwater
Fresh Water Trout
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
t/yr
High Growth: 30.000
Median Growth: 24.000
Quote on Freshwater Farming
The basis for high growth is a dramatic improvement of the water treatment technology, which may hard to do, as well technically as economically.
Salt Water FarmingSalt Water Farming
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
t/yr
Median Growth: 17.000 (7.000 on land)
Low Growth: 4000; High Growth: 35.000
Quote on Cage Culture
For economic viability for a family farm a 50-70 tons/year capacity is needed!
Today more than >1000 tons/year
A loss of 12 tons N/100 tons fish produced
Now it is <4 tons N
Eel production
Eel Production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1984 1989 1994 1999
t/yr
Median Growth: 3.500
High Growth: 6.000; Low Growth: 0
Quote on Eels
It is hardly likely that the market will limit production growth!
Oops, the Chinese started exporting cheap eels to Europe
Other Options
Goal Result
Cultured Mussels
15.000 <100
Seaweed 10.000 0
Warm Salt Water
3.000 <100
Quote on Seaweed
In Denmark there is an interest for culturing seaweed with the aim of harvesting nutrients back to land
Today: Catchcultures
And Prices…..
1984 InflationActual 2000
Seafarm 35 46 30Freshwater 15 24 14Eel 55 88 35
Sure… All food prices are steadily decreasing
Today’s Situation
Proactive Business Community
National Aquaculture Committees
Attitudes have been changed
What lies ahead?
The Global Framework Growth to 400 mio. tons/yr
– UN’s median population forecast: 10 billion people
– 7 times richer in 100 years
– And 40 kg per cap./yr Fishery will decline to
about 10 mio.tons/år
Fish per Capita
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970 1980 1990 2000
Kg
pe
r C
ap
.
The Future of Fisheries
WFD: High / Good Ecological Quality criteria can not be met
As it removes a high percentage of the fish existing production from the Sea
Can this continue?
Demand for FishNot IMPACT, but KIBCB: Karl Iver’s Best Crystal
Ball
050.000.000
100.000.000150.000.000200.000.000250.000.000300.000.000350.000.000400.000.000450.000.000500.000.000
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
To
ns/
Yea
r
Fish demand Fish Caught
Aquaculture Demand Aquaculture
Fisheries
Danish Scenarios
Morten Korch society
Business as usual
Growth Unlimited
Morten Korch Soceity
New government with a very green environmental minister
Allies itself with anti industrial food production NGO’s
Aquaculture will slowly and painfully disappear
Business as Usual
Stubborn fighting withdrawal from “green” NGO’s and politicised authorities
Cautious fish farmers: “We must not offend anyone”
Slow production increase Old and tired producers
retire? All is in the balance
Growth Unlimited The positive
political climate continues
Finance is attracted Young, smart and
energetic people wants to work in aquaculture
Full speed ahead Norway
Environmental EfficiencyAgriculture Ponds Seafarm
2000, after H. SchrøderSales value mio. kr 50.000 700 300Nitrogen Loss Tons 380.000 500 300N-Efficiency Mio. kr/tons 0,12 1,4 1
Why agriculture and not aquaculture: Equality before the law?
Production Type & Environment
agriculture ponds seafarm
Hits, Google 11/10-01 No. 20.200 1.510 402Nitrogen Loss Tons 380.000 500 300N-Efficiency Hits/ton 0,05 3,02 1,34
Seafarms: What did we miss?
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
To
ns/
year
Saltvand Seatrout Seatrout cb
Half a Great Belt Bridge: 2 Billion Euro
Offshore Farming in the North Sea?
1 Million tons fish/yr: 200 km2
Plants / mussels for food and nutrient recycling: 2000 km2
Catchcultures: Mussels and Seaweed
New Species?
Sea Farm Committee:– Turbot, Sole– Not Cod!
Vegetarian species: Mullet
Perch/Pikeperch Exotic Fish:
Barramundi, Tilapia GMO?
The Virtual Fish Farm
A 3D model of a fish farm
Including fish behaviour
Sensors all over: in the nets and in the fish too
Offshore Fish Farms?
And the Oceans?
Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion
Plenty of space, food and nutrients
http://www.nrel.gov/otec/apps.html
Will There be Scarcity of Fish?
Fish Culture without water: Recirculation
Animal Culture without animals: an infinitely long fishfillet cell culture
The technical options are present
We will never have fish scarcity
But will Denmark be a supplier??
Discussion